Democrats trying to unseat each other III

[Harry Bosch]

Consider Clintoncare. It was a big fat mess that the Clinton Admin took a year to work on, but when it was released, the Clintonites whimpered and came close to apologizing for having introduced it. They let the insurance lobby run its "Harry and Louise" ads without running any "Gary and Denise" ads to counter them. Right-wingers called "Hillarycare" some monstrous scheme to take over much of the economy, but it wasn't some national super HMO like Britain's National Health Service.

Barack Obama tried again, and he succeeded with Obamacare. That didn't do much to stop healthcare from being grotesquely expensive.

Well they faced incredible opposition from the right. Such major legislation takes time. Then dems got busy, had other priorities and didn’t vote well in 1994. Republicans took over. And they killed the act. Obama care is awesome. It’s currently half the cost of Cobra.

 

[Derec]

Right-wingers called "Hillarycare" some monstrous scheme to take over much of the economy,

I think Clinton's biggest blunder here was to let Hillary run the show.

 

[Derec]

Opinion | How the Squad and Like-Minded Progressives Have Changed Their Party - The New York Times - April 23, 2024

Didn't you also post that Squad puff piece by Mara "what the fuck is a million" Gay in another thread?

When the far-left politicians Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ayanna Pressley were first elected to Congress roughly half a decade ago, many moderate Democrats saw their unapologetically progressive vision for America as an albatross around the neck of the Democratic Party.

Even though he is running against Trump, and should be winning in a landslide, Biden is still underwater in most polls. This lefty albatross may prove to be a millstone instead.

That certainly seemed to be the view of Democratic leaders, who seemed intent on making the Squad, as the progressive caucus is known, a group of permanent outsiders.

Gay is wrong here. The Squad is not the same as the Progressive Caucus. It is a more select and informal group of congresscritters, and more lefty than even the CPC. The Squad came into being when AOC, Ilhan Omar, Rashida Tlaib and Ayanna Pressley (truly the bass player of the four) won their elections in 2018. Since then several others joined the group justifying the name (originally it was the size of a fire team). Two privates, Cori Bush and Fire Marshal Jamaal, will hopefully be sent home by losing primaries. Knock on wood.

And in recent months, the insurgent group of unapologetic leftists has gained even more sway within the Democratic Party. Some of this is clearly a reaction to the extremism of Trumpism and far-right House Republicans. But the progressives have gained power in Washington amid rising anger over the U.S. role in Gaza.

Speaking of US role in Gaza, the pier is finally getting finished. Hopefully Hamas won't attack it again.

Another reason may be the failure of Clintonism to accomplish its stated goals. Make lots of progressive promises, then wring one's hands about how helpless one is and propose weak half-measures. Also act like one has battered-partner syndrome with the Republican Party, perpetually trying to appease it despite getting lots of nastiness and hostility in response.

Clinton managed to win two terms after Dems being out of the White House since 1980. Since LBJ left office in 1968, Carter's one term was also the only Democratic one until Clinton.
And Clinton's presidency was overall successful. Sure, "progressives" did not get all they wanted, but Clinton did not run as a McGovern.

 

[Derec]

I’m glad you agree that it is better if other countries exhaust their fossil fuel reserves.

I did not say that. I said that the bulk of remaining reserves of our enemies should become stranded assets once demands plummets.
If we hamstring our oil and gas production due to misguided environmentalism, we (as well as Europe) would become more dependent on the likes of Russia and Iran. That is not good economically, and it is not good geopolitically. It is not even good environmentally, as imported oil and gas has to be transported longer distances and, besides, we would probably end up increasing coal consumption for electricity. Remember, it was the shale revolution and resulting abundant natural gas that allowed us to greatly decrease our coal use over the last two decades.

We will never agree on fracking—I am guessing you have ties to that industry.

I wish!

I see environmental damage due to fracking in a regular basis. I’m guessing you’ve never been anywhere to see the before/after effects of mining sand for fracking or fracking itself. I have.

Can't say I have. I have been close to a coal plant and also an open pit coal mine, both of which were absolutely ghastly. I have also lived very close to an oil refinery, which was much better (and also provided hot water for residential and commercial heating).
There is environmental damage connected with any extractive industry. The question is how much, and how much utility we are getting in return. I think reducing our coal consumption (and mining!) is more than enough of a tradeoff by itself. Exporting LNG to our allies and reducing their dependence on Russian gas is a big added benefit as well. And that's just benefits of natural gas fracking.

 

[Derec]

And I asked you what method you used to determine the "plethora" is too much?

In the end it's a matter of opinion how much is too much. But let's not pretend that there are not many programs that subsidize having children already.

I absolutely agree more should be done for single people. But jealousy is not a reason to not attempt to get children out of poverty.

1. As I said before, the eligibility for the expanded child tax credit is so extensive, most of the beneficiaries are not even in poverty.
2. The expensive expanded child tax program would be paid for by the child free, either directly through higher taxes or indirectly through higher inflation and/or interest rates.

For fuck's sake, show us any family making $400k receiving the above benefits.

Not the other benefits, but the cutoff for the expanded child tax credit is $400k.

 

[Toni]

I’m glad you agree that it is better if other countries exhaust their fossil fuel reserves.

I did not say that. I said that the bulk of remaining reserves of our enemies should become stranded assets once demands plummets.
If we hamstring our oil and gas production due to misguided environmentalism, we (as well as Europe) would become more dependent on the likes of Russia and Iran. That is not good economically, and it is not good geopolitically. It is not even good environmentally, as imported oil and gas has to be transported longer distances and, besides, we would probably end up increasing coal consumption for electricity. Remember, it was the shale revolution and resulting abundant natural gas that allowed us to greatly decrease our coal use over the last two decades.

We will never agree on fracking—I am guessing you have ties to that industry.

I wish!

I see environmental damage due to fracking in a regular basis. I’m guessing you’ve never been anywhere to see the before/after effects of mining sand for fracking or fracking itself. I have.

Can't say I have. I have been close to a coal plant and also an open pit coal mine, both of which were absolutely ghastly. I have also lived very close to an oil refinery, which was much better (and also provided hot water for residential and commercial heating).
There is environmental damage connected with any extractive industry. The question is how much, and how much utility we are getting in return. I think reducing our coal consumption (and mining!) is more than enough of a tradeoff by itself. Exporting LNG to our allies and reducing their dependence on Russian gas is a big added benefit as well. And that's just benefits of natural gas fracking.

Mining for sand used in fracking looks similar to open pit mines. And the dust created contaminates the air in surrounding areas, creating health hazards for people who simply want to live their lives. You are right: It s ghastly.

You are also correct that all extraction methods fit whatever energy source create environmental damage. What we need to do is to follow in the footsteps of Europe and work harder to conserve as much energy as possible, improve energy efficiency and… to stop being so materialistic.

 

[Derec]

You are also correct that all extraction methods fit whatever energy source create environmental damage. What we need to do is to follow in the footsteps of Europe and work harder to conserve as much energy as possible, improve energy efficiency and… to stop being so materialistic.

If you look at the chart, US managed to reduce CO₂ emissions more than European countries like Germany or UK. I do not have anything against improving energy efficiency, but it only goes so far. Europe had a big problem in 2022 - their dependence on imported gas from Russia. If US was not there to supply Europe with our abundant fracked gas, Europe would have been in deep trouble.
Where does the EU’s gas come from?

 

[ZiprHead]

And I asked you what method you used to determine the "plethora" is too much?

In the end it's a matter of opinion how much is too much. But let's not pretend that there are not many programs that subsidize having children already.

Who's pretending?

I absolutely agree more should be done for single people. But jealousy is not a reason to not attempt to get children out of poverty.

1. As I said before, the eligibility for the expanded child tax credit is so extensive, most of the beneficiaries are not even in poverty.
2. The expensive expanded child tax program would be paid for by the child free, either directly through higher taxes or indirectly through higher inflation and/or interest rates.

About 16 Million Children in Low-Income Families Would Gain in First Year of Bipartisan Child Tax Credit Expansion | Center on Budget and Policy Priorities

Half a million or more children would be lifted above the poverty line when the proposal is fully in effect in 2025.

www.cbpp.org

Impacts by the Numbers​

The bipartisan Child Tax Credit proposal released by Senator Ron Wyden and Representative Jason Smith, while smaller than the American Rescue Plan expansion, would provide meaningful help to millions of children in families with low incomes, starting in the first year.

• Roughly 16 million children in families with low incomes would benefitfrom the expansion in the first year.
  • That’s more than 80 percent of the 19 million children who currently receive less than the full credit, or none at all, because their families’ incomes are too low. (See Table 1 for state-specific estimates overall and by race and ethnicity.)
  • Nearly 3 million children under age 3 would benefit in the first year.
• The expansion would meaningfully reduce child poverty.
  • In the first year, the expansion would lift as many as 400,000 children above the poverty line. 3 million more children would be made less poor as their incomes rise closer to the poverty line.
  • When the expansion is fully in effect, it would lift some 500,000 or more children above the poverty line. About 5 million more children would be made less poor.
• The expansion would help children of all races and ethnicities. It would particularly help groups where parents are overrepresented in low-paid jobs due to historical and ongoing discrimination and other structural barriers to opportunity. In the first year:
  • Overall, more than 1 in 5 children under 17 would benefit from the expansion.
  • More than 1 in 3 of all Black and Latino children under 17 would benefit.
  • 3 in 10 of all American Indian and Alaska Native children under 17 would benefit.
  • 1 in 7 of all white and Asian children under 17 would benefit.
• The expansion would meaningfully helpmillions of children in families with low incomes. Of the about 16 million children who would benefit in the first year:
  • Half live in families that gain $630 or more.
  • 40 percent live in families that gain $1,000 or more.
  • 25 percent live in families that gain $1,400 or more.
  • Half of the children who benefit and who live in families with more than one child would see their families gain $1,000 or more.
• Consider the following examples of families that would benefit from the expansion:
  • A single parent with two children who earns $13,000 working part time as a home health aide would see their credit double (a $1,575 gain) in the first year.
  • A single parent with two children who earns $22,000 as a child care worker would gain $675 in the first year.
  • A married couple — with one parent earning $32,000 as a nursing assistant and the other parent staying home to take care of their three young children — would gain $975 in the first year.

Good heavens! How do they deserve such a fortune?

For fuck's sake, show us any family making $400k receiving the above benefits.

Not the other benefits, but the cutoff for the expanded child tax credit is $400k.

Families making $400k probably pay far more in income taxes than they would receive in the extremely small amount of the tax credit such a family would receive. The higher the income, the lower the credit.

 

[lpetrich]

AIPAC spent big on on the MD-03 Democratic primary and got a victory.

Elfreth foes cry foul as AIPAC money seeps into 3rd District congressional race - Maryland Matters - April 4, 2024
Why Is AIPAC Pouring Money Into This Maryland Race? - May 11 2024, 8:00 a.m. - "Neither Candidate Has Much to Say About Israel. So Why Is AIPAC Pouring Money Into This Race?" - "The powerful lobbying group is going against a Capitol Police officer who fended off January 6 insurrectionists."

The American Israel Public Affairs Committee said its top priority this cycle was to oust members of the progressive Squad. But the group has also been quietly pouring money into another Democratic primary: a competitive race for an open congressional seat in Maryland. AIPAC’s target? Former Capitol Police officer Harry Dunn, who was in the Capitol during the January 6 attacks.

Neither Dunn nor his rival, state Sen. Sarah Elfreth, has been particularly outspoken in support of or against Israel, raising the question of why AIPAC is involved in the race at all.

In the last month, AIPAC’s super PAC, United Democracy Project, has poured $4.1 million into the race to support Elfreth. Some 20 candidates are running for the open seat in Maryland’s 3rd Congressional District, where incumbent Rep. John Sarbanes announced in October he would not seek reelection. Dunn and Elfreth are leading fundraising.

In individual campaign contributions, Dunn has outraised Elfreth almost 4 to 1, with $4.5 million to her $1.4 million. But considering the outside boost from AIPAC, the group has given Elreth’s campaign a significant leg up: The pro-Israel group’s super PAC has spent almost as much as Dunn has raised. Elfreth has distanced herself from AIPAC’s support and said she was unaware that the group’s super PAC would be spending on her behalf.

Elfreth’s campaign is also getting support from at least 12 donors who’ve given between $1,000 and $6,600 who have also given major support to far-right Republicans including former President Donald Trump, according to campaign filings reviewed by The Intercept. At least five of the donors are registered Republicans.

AIPAC-backed Sarah Elfreth wins primary for open Maryland congressional seat - POLITICO - "The pro-Israel group boosted a state senator against a nationally known Jan. 6 Capitol Police officer — and won."

With 82% of the vote counted, Sarah Elfreth 35.9%, Harry Dunn 25.3%, others 11.6%, 6.5%, 5.1%, 2.8%, 2.8%, 1.7%, 1.6%, 1.5%, 1.2%, 0.7%, 0.6%, 0.5%, 0.5%, 0.5%, 0.4%, 0.3%, 0.2%, 0.2%, 0.1%, 0.1%

If I ever get a database of election results in convenient form, I could look for a power law or something similar in the behavior of those trailing votes.

 

[lpetrich]

Elsewhere in Maryland, incumbent Glenn Ivey won the D primary for his district, MD-04, and he is likely to get re-elected there.

In MD-05, Mckayla Wilkes lost again, with only 10% of the vote, less than fellow challenger Quincy Bareebe at 10.3%, though more than another one, Andrea Crooms at 7.1%. Steny Hoyer, the 84-year-old incumbent, won big there.

In MD-08, incumbent Jamie Raskin won all but 1/20 of the vote.

The Senate race was interesting. Cardin Announces Plans for 2024 - U.S. Senator Ben Cardin - the 81-year-old, three-term Senator decided to retire.

Entering the race to succeed him was David Trone and Angela Alsobrooks.

 David Trone

David John Trone (born September 21, 1955)[1][2] is an American politician and businessman serving as the U.S. representative for Maryland's 6th congressional district. The district includes most of the western third of the state, but the bulk of its population is in the outer northern suburbs of Washington, D.C. Trone founded and co-owns Total Wine & More with his brother, Robert L. Trone, and served as the company's president until December 2016.[3]

In 2016, Trone spent more than $13 million of his own money on his unsuccessful Democratic primary campaign to succeed Chris Van Hollen in Maryland's 8th congressional district, setting a record for the most expensive self-funded House campaign.

That makes him 69 years old.  Total Wine & More - "Total Wine & More is a family-owned privately held American alcohol retailer founded and led by brothers David and Robert Trone."

Spending that much money?

 Angela Alsobrooks

Angela Deneece Alsobrooks (born February 23, 1971) is an American lawyer and politician serving as the 8th and current county executive of Prince George's County, Maryland. She is also the first female county executive of Prince George's County, as well as the first African American female county executive in Maryland history. A member of the Democratic Party, Alsobrooks previously served two terms as the county's state's attorney from 2010 to 2018.

Not long before the election: Maryland 2024 Poll: Alsobrooks 42%, Trone 41% - Emerson Polling - "When undecided voters are asked which candidate they lean toward and are accounted for in the candidate’s total support, Alsobrooks’ support increases to 47%, and Trone’s to 44%."

With 87% counted, it's AA 53.4%, DT 42.8%, others 0.7%, 0.7%, 0.5%, 0.5%, 0.5%, 0.3%, 0.3%, 0.2%

AA won in the more urban areas, DT in the more rural areas.

On the Republican side, with 93% counted, former governor Larry Hogan got 63.4% and the others 28.6%, 3.2%, 2.0%, 1.7%, 0.7%, 0.3%.

 

[lpetrich]

Dems’ ugliest Senate primary ends with a bad grand prize: Facing Larry Hogan - POLITICO - "If the party wants to coast to winning the Maryland seat, it will have to mend the scars left by the battle between Rep. David Trone and Angela Alsobrooks."

Trone belittled Alsobrooks’ experience and endorsements from Prince George’s County, attacked her “special interest” fundraising and briefly ran an ad as part of his $60 million campaign that implies she’d need “training wheels” as senator. Alsobrooks sniffed at Trone’s “temperament” after he tore into a TV reporter and whacked him for donating to “radical Republicans” who are anti-abortion rights.

Plus, Alsobrooks’ allies have repeatedly brought up Trone using a racial slur demeaning to Black people during a congressional hearing in March, which he said was a mistake.

“I was not happy with some of his statements. And I thought it lacked cultural sensitivity. I thought they were inappropriate,” said Rep. Joyce Beatty (D-Ohio), a former chair of the Congressional Black Caucus who has endorsed Alsobrooks. “It was disappointing that a member would do that. And in a campaign where you’re running in a community that has a lot of folks that look like me.”

Maryland Senate primary: Alsobrooks defeats Trone in race for Democratic nomination; Hogan wins GOP nod - WTOP News

Hogan, one of the most vocal Republican critics of former President Donald Trump, is seen as a moderate member of the GOP and has said he is running for Senate to take on political gridlock in Washington.

He made it a point in his victory address to supporters Tuesday night to suggest that as a Republican senator he would not seek to curtail abortion rights.

Alsobrooks has made preserving abortion rights a key part of her campaign, and in her victory speech Tuesday blasted Hogan for his remarks earlier in the campaign in which he called abortion rights “an emotional issue” for women voters.

Was LH trying to argue that abortion is a non-issue? Seems like he won't get much support from either side.

Angela Alsobrooks Defeats David Trone in Maryland Democratic Senate Primary - The New York Times

The primary between Ms. Alsobrooks and Mr. Trone turned negative as it tightened, splitting Democrats in Congress and beyond. A competitive primary has been a rarity in Maryland, which has not had a Republican senator in nearly four decades. Mr. Hogan’s decision to enter the race changed all that.

Mr. Trone scored endorsements from congressional leaders, who were eager to have a wealthy candidate who could fund his own Senate run as they embark on a costly battle in several competitive states to keep control of the chamber. But all but one Democrat in the state’s congressional delegation backed Ms. Alsobrooks.

Angela Alsobrooks prevails in Maryland Senate primary: Five takeaways - "Trone’s deep pockets weren’t enough to win"

 

[Derec]

Some good news from Oregon. Both Pramila Jayapal's sister and Mike Schmidt, the fauxgressive Multnomah County DA, lost their primaries.

Maxine Dexter beats Jayapal’s sister in Democratic primary for Oregon House seat

Centrist challenger ousts progressive DA in Oregon

 

[lpetrich]

This is horrible. This is an Oregon State House race.
Democratic Oregon House incumbents win primaries, one race remains too close to call • Oregon Capital Chronicle - May 24, 2024 5:50 am

8th District: Outside money in Eugene

Lisa Fragala, a Lane Community College Board director and university partnership coordinator for Pacific University, will replace House Speaker Pro Tem Paul Holvey, D-Eugene, in the safely Democratic 8th House District. She captured about 74% of the vote to 26% for Doyle Canning, an attorney and past congressional candidate who now works as Portland Democratic Rep. Khanh Pham’s legislative director.

The race was rocked by more than $130,000 in negative spending against Canning from Eugene is Ready, a political action committee formed by former Democratic state Rep. Brian Clem and funded with part of the $1 million loan he gave his Oregonians are Ready PAC, which exists to elect moderate Democrats.

Why did he spend so much money trying to keep Doyle Canning out of the State House?

Clem told the Capital Chronicle ahead of the primary that his spending in the 8th District was personal: Former U.S. Rep. Peter DeFazio has been a hero of Clem’s since he worked in DeFazio’s office while in high school. Clem was still upset over Canning’s 2020 primary challenge to DeFazio, in which she described him as weak on the environment. DeFazio endorsed Fragala and told OPB that he hasn’t forgiven Canning.

“I am fairly certain Lisa is not a centrist but I trust Peter implicitly and am happy to facilitate the expression of his views on the race,” Clem said.

So he had a grudge against DC and he wanted to keep DC out of office even if it meant electing someone much like her?

Fragala raised more than $170,000 and spent more than $150,000, while Canning raised $96,000 and spent almost $92,000, state campaign finance records show. ...

Fragala didn’t mince words when speaking about the independent expenditures in the race.

“I think it was a disservice to both candidates in the race, and I think it was a disservice to our community,” she said.

She said candidates should strive to do what she did in her campaign: Focus on their values, why they’re the right person to serve the community and what they’re passionate about.

“Very few people asked me about the independent expenditures,” she said. “They wanted to share their stories, and they wanted to hear what I was going to work on. And so that’s what I think candidates need to focus on.”

Why does LF seem so principled? She might think that such outside money is a loose cannon, that she might be the next target of some big spender.

 

[lpetrich]

A Eugene legislative race might be a glimpse into Oregon’s future - OPB - April 30, 2024 11:30 a.m.

Brian Clem, a former Democratic state representative who founded the PAC, told OPB he plans to spend “what it takes” to defeat Canning in the election, funding mailers and ads for a campaign that he said could reach into six figures.

It’s not that Clem supports Fragala, he says. He’s never met her and says he expects they disagree on plenty. Instead, Clem said he has a score to settle on behalf of Peter DeFazio, the longest-tenured Congressman in state history. Clem once served as an intern in DeFazio’s office and describes the Springfield Democrat as a political hero. Canning attempted to unseat DeFazio in 2020, his last campaign before retiring in 2022.

“Doyle Canning represents what I don’t think is good about our Oregon Legislature, which is people who spend time attacking other people that are just trying to solve problems,” said Clem, a Salem Democrat who served in the House from 2007-2021.

What gives him that idea?

After noting that BC supported his "Oregonians are Ready" pack with a $1 million loan from himself,

Maybe most notably, Clem has buy-in from DeFazio. The Democrat is a well-known quantity to Eugene voters after more than three decades of representing the city in Congress. He told OPB last week he has not forgiven Canning for a 2020 campaign that painted him as cozy with oil and pharmaceutical interests, and suggested he was anti-immigrant.

“She was trashing me for being bad on the environment,” said DeFazio, who prevailed easily in the primary, but faced a tough reelection fight that year against Republican Alek Skarlatos. “That stuck with me for a long time. It did.”

What does he think is the real story on that?

DeFazio, who these days is a registered federal lobbyist for entities that include TriMet and the American Trucking Associations, sent out an email to his supporters earlier this month praising Fragala. And the congressman is featured prominently in the sole ad Clem has produced to date, which paints Canning as an opportunist with a history of bashing other Democrats for personal gain.

“Progressive champions like Peter DeFazio are lined up against Doyle Canning because she keeps putting her ambition first and us last,” says the ad, which was funded by Oregonians Are Ready through another PAC, Eugene Is Ready.

Yet another politician turned lobbyist. Just like Joe Crowley after AOC primaried him, and Kurt Schrader after Jamie McLeod Skinner primaried him. Proving what one's opponent said about one is not a good way of rebutting them.

From the article, "Canning works as legislative director for Rep. Khanh Pham, D-Portland" someone who voted against a bill to recriminalize drug possession. That was "evidence" that DC was “extreme and out of touch on issues like fentanyl.”

DC: “To me, it smacks of Republican tactics. This is not what you would expect from a fellow Democrat running in a Democratic primary for a state house race in which our party is going to win regardless of the outcome.”

 

[lpetrich]

Obscure political group amps up massive spending against Oregon candidate for Congress | The Seattle Times - May 19, 2024 at 1:00 pm

Voters for Responsive Government, a political group that popped up last month to rally Portland voters against congressional candidate Susheela Jayapal, spent another $1 million on negative advertising last week, new filings show, taking its total spending against Jayapal to over $2.3 million.

The negative ads are incendiary and somewhat misleading. They attempt to pin the failings of the Multnomah County Commission and its powerful chair on Jayapal alone. Jayapal was one of five commissioners in charge of county business between 2019 and her resignation in late 2023.

One flyer shows a picture of caged dogs and draws from The Oregonian/OregonLive’s coverage of neglect at the Multnomah County animal shelter while Jayapal was on the commission. Another says Jayapal and the county commission gave “crack pipes, straws and tin foil to drug addicts,” in response to the area drug crisis.

In fact, the county’s plan to provide smoking supplies to fentanyl and meth users as a method of harm reduction never happened before it was put on hold last summer. And the problems at the county animal shelter existed long before Jayapal joined the commission.

What is this mysterious PAC?

Voters for Responsive Government has not yet disclosed its donors to the federal government, making it hard to ascertain who is backing the negative ads. The new California based political committee does not have to disclose its donors until Monday, the day before Oregon’s primary election.

It entered the race late, so it does not have to disclose the sources of its funding until just before Election Day. That is just plain sleazy.

 

[lpetrich]

AIPAC Is Secretly Intervening in Portland’s Congressional Race - May 3 2024, 5:11 p.m. - "The pro-Israel group is funneling money through a “pro-science” PAC, according to two members of Congress."
314 Action

AIPAC and GOP Donors Raise Big Money Against Susheela Jayapal - May 10 2024, 2:08 p.m. - "A donor to Dexter in the Portland congressional race tells The Intercept: “I give all my contributions through AIPAC.”"

Bundling donations to approved candidates is a common practice in politics and one that was described by AIPAC donor David Ochs, who didn’t know he was being recorded for an undercover documentary: “What happens is [a donor] meets with the congressman in the back room, tells them exactly what his goals are … basically they hand him an envelope with 20 credit cards, and say, ‘You can swipe each of these credit cards for a thousand dollars each.’

 

[lpetrich]

OR-03 results: Maxine Dexter 47.6%, Susheela Jayapal 33.0%, Eddy Morales 13.5%, others 2.4%, 2.1%, 0.9%, 0.6%.
It took nearly a week to count the ballots, and I suspect an own goal by SJ and EM. They ought to have decided on which one to drop out so as not to split the vote of their side. If the election had RCV, they would not have needed to do that, but that election had FPTP, and that voting system rewards the most unified blocs. Even a separate top-two runoff election would have been better. If SJ and EM teamed up, they would have gotten 46.5%, almost enough to beat MD.

When Jamaal Bowman was running against Eliot Engel in 2020 in NY-16, another candidate in the race, Andom Ghebreghiorgis, dropped out before the primary election and supported JB. Was it to avoid vote splitting?

In the PA-12 2022 D primary, Summer Lee beat Steve Irwin 41.9% - 41.0%, but three other candidates got about 1/6 of the vote: 10.9%, 4.8%, 1.5%. If they weren't in the race, who might their voters have voted for?

In the NY-10 2022 D primary, Daniel Goldman 25.9%, Yuh-Line Niou 23.6%, Mondaire Jones 18.1%, Carlina Rivera 16.5%, Jo Anne Simon 6.1%, Elizabeth Holtzman 4.4%, Jimmy Jiang Li 1.6%, Yan Xiong 1.0%, Maud Maron 0.9%, Bill de Blasio 0.7%, Brian Robinson 0.5%, Peter Gleason 0.2%, Quanda Francis 0.2%. Mondaire Jones fled to there after redistricting and not wanting to run against Jamaal Bowman. If he didn't, then YLN might have won.

Something similar may have happened in the MA-04 2020 D primary: Jake Auchincloss won with only 22.4% of the votes. The others got 21.0%, 18.1%, 11.6%, 11.1%, 9.1%, 3.3%, 1.6%, 1.6%, 0.2%. I recall from somewhere that some candidates wanted to run again, but they never did.

Effective number of candidates, using 1/sum( (candidate fraction)^2 ) -- NY: 5.27, MA: 6.13


Adding to this lossage is an unfortunate trend among certain parts of the Left: third-partyism, focus on some third-party or independent candidate for the Presidency to the exclusion of every other election. If the third-partyers had focused on some downballot candidates instead of some certain-to-lose alternative Presidential candidates, we'd be a lot better off IMO.

 

[lpetrich]

Maxine Dexter, Backed By Super PACs And Pro-Israel Donors, Wins Oregon House Race | HuffPost Latest News - May 22, 2024 - "The mainstream progressive defeated Susheela Jayapal, a former county commissioner favored by the activist left."

Jayapal, the runner-up, was the preferred candidate of the activist left, garnering the endorsements of, among other high-profile progressives, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.).

But her outspoken views on topics like Israel’s war in Gaza and ties to the Congressional Progressive Caucus made her a target for pro-Israel donors and possibly, the deep-pocketed super PACs that gave Dexter an edge.

In the beginning of April, SJ had $175,000 more than MD.

Then, 314 Action Fund, a Democratic super PAC that backs scientists or candidates in adjacent professions, began spending heavily to promote Dexter. They would end up spending $2.2 million on advertising promoting Dexter.

A second, unknown group, Voters for Responsive Government, sprang up to spend $3.2 million attacking Jayapal for the Multnomah County commission’s failure to properly address the Portland area’s homelessness problem. Jayapal has laid most of the blame at the feet of the commission’s chair, who had overriding authority during her tenure, and touts housing policy reforms prominently on her campaign website.

There was a further difficulty.

The editorial board of the Oregonian newspaper, for example, wrote in its endorsement of Dexter that Jayapal’s years on the commission “were remarkably unaccomplished.”

By contrast, the newspaper declared that Dexter, as chair of the state House’s committee on housing and homelessness, had succeeded in “carefully navigating opposition to land use law changes in order to pass a slate of bills to boost and finance housing construction.”

Though Pramila Jayapal campaigned heavily for her sister, the Congressional Progressive Caucus didn't endorse here.

"But the outside spending for Dexter outstripped the analogous effort for Jayapal by a more than 30-to-1 margin."

After carefully hiding its involvement in the race, AIPAC crowed about its victory.
AIPAC on X: "AIPAC congratulates @doctormaxine on her Democratic primary win!
AIPAC members were proud to support Maxine Dexter in her race against an anti-Israel opponent endorsed by @BernieSanders, @AOC, and @jstreetdotorg.
Being pro-Israel is good policy and good politics!" / X

 

[lpetrich]

More:

By the broad ideological standards of the House Democratic Caucus, Jayapal and Dexter are not that far apart.

But policy nuances often reveal the difference between a mainstream progressive like Blumenauer, whom Dexter might resemble, and an insurgent-style fighter in the mold of Ocasio-Cortez, who might model how Jayapal would have governed.

Jayapal ran as a proponent of Medicare for All, forswore corporate PAC donations, called for a permanent cease-fire early on in Israel’s invasion of Gaza, and demanded an end to U.S. funding of Israel’s military until the war ends.

Dexter, by contrast, speaks of working “toward the goal of adopting a single-payer model,” has not explicitly rejected corporate PAC donations, and is calling for a cease-fire that includes the return of the Israeli hostages. She told Jewish Insider that she would support a policy of reviewing humanitarian clauses on U.S. aid to all countries, but not a policy directed at Israel on its own.

Will MD offer the Francis Bacon defense? "Sure I took their money, but I didn't let it influence me."

 

[lpetrich]

I should mention Doyle Canning's history of running in OR-04.
2020 D primary: Peter DeFazio 83.7%, DC 15.4%
2022 D primary: Val Hoyle 63.5%, DC 16.1%, others 6.9% 5.4%, 4.9%, 1.4%, 0.7%, 0.3%, 0.8%

Progressives Brought Down Under Crush of AIPAC-Affiliated Money in Oregon Primaries | Common Dreams

"This race showed so clearly why we need to have real campaign finance reform that allows for public financing," Susheela Jayapal wrote on social media Wednesday, criticizing the role of outside super PACs, which she said timed their contributions so they wouldn't have to reveal their donors until after the primary.

noting
Susheela Jayapal on X: "I’m proud of the movement we built together. Please see my statement on the OR-03 Primary results below. (pic link)" / X
She stated her goals.

Values of integrity, commitment, and justice. A vision of a country and a district that truly honors and serves all of our communities. In which we are all equal, and all deserving.

That vision is what I have spent the last several decades of my life working for: on the board of Planned Parenthood, fighting for reproductive rights; ensuring that frontline workers got better wages for their heroic work; holding fossil fuel companies accountable for destructive climate change; and always advocating for resources for those who have been left out and left behind. This work is why over 100 local community leaders– who I have been so proud to work with –endorsed my campaign.

...
To create shared prosperity, a sustainable planet, & a truly strong democracy. One in which people - not profit, not money - have power. We are not there. But we will continue to fight. While we may be disappointed in the results - the fight was worth it, and always is.