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Democrats trying to unseat each other

The most anti-LGBTQ Democrat in Congress lost his primary / LGBTQ Nation - "Lipinski refused to cosponsor LGBTQ civil rights protections but supported bills to create "religious exemptions" to the law."
Lipinski got scores of 58, 57, and 38 out of 100 in the last three HRC Congressional Scorecards, far below the near-perfect 100’s other Democrats from Illinois got on the most recent scorecard.

He also opposed other progressive priorities like women’s reproductive rights, the Affordable Care Act, and the DREAM Act.

...
During his race, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee refused to endorse Lipinski. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) and Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-IL) both backed Newman, and Newman also received endorsements from several progressive organizations, like HRC, Emily’s List, and Planned Parenthood.
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Rep. Dan Lipinski's upset has symbolic ramifications for the Democratic caucus - CNNPolitics
ut Newman didn't just unseat any incumbent. She toppled a transportation subcommittee chairman who ran with the backing of the Chicago Tribune and whose last name has been on the ballot in this area for four decades. Lipinski was handpicked to succeed his father, who served in the House before him.

It's an upset that has symbolic ramifications for the Democratic caucus. Lipinski is one of a small handful of Democrats left in the House who voted against the Affordable Care Act in 2010 and consistently votes against abortion rights. If Newman wins in November, she will have moved the caucus farther toward a party that almost exclusively supports abortion rights.
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MN: "I'd been watching Lipinski for 10 years. For the longest time, I thought it was just choice that he was bad on," but he was bad on other things also. She put together a campaign at the last minute, and lost by a 2% margin.
Refusing to concede right away, Newman said that she wished "Mr. Lipinski to have a very painful evening." She earned heat for those remarks in 2018, but said Wednesday that it was a reaction to the Chicago political machine and the "disrespectful" tactics used against her.

"I learned that the Chicago machine is a bully, and that certain politicians are bullies," Newman said.

"The prevailing knowledge 15 years ago was: ignore bullies and it will take their steam out," Newman said. "Well the more you ignore a bully, the more effective they are because you acknowledge that you are less than they are. And I'm not just willing to say Illinois 3 is less than the bullies."
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DL refused to moderate his position on abortion to try to win against MN.
"There was one issue that loomed especially large in this campaign," Lipinski said Wednesday at his news conference. "The fact that I am pro-life." He went onto say that he was "pilloried" on the issue, with outside groups outspending him six to one.

...
"Life begins at conception," Lipinski said Wednesday. "Knowing this, I can never give up protecting the most vulnerable human beings in the world simply to win an election."
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The complete vote count for the IL-03 Democratic primary:
Marie Newman 49,098 47.3%
Dan Lipinski* 46,315 44.6
Rush Darwish 6,070 5.8
Charles Hughes 2,376 2.3
103,859 votes, 500 of 500 precincts reporting

MN beat DL by 2,783 votes, or 2.7%

-

For the IL-11 D primary:
Bill Foster* 44,422 58.7%
Rachel Ventura 31,249 41.3
75,671 votes, 468 of 468 precincts reporting
 
Famous last words:
Brooke Singman on Twitter: "NEW: on @justicedems plans to primary members, a senior Democratic source said: " “No one is afraid of those nerds. They don't have the ability to primary anyone.”" / Twitter

Hillary Clinton on Twitter: "Congratulations to @Marie4Congress for her win in #IL03 yesterday. It's a victory for reproductive rights, better health care, DREAMers, our climate, and an economy that works for everyone." / Twitter

Justice Democrats on Twitter: "“I like to think about it as we now have put the district in alignment with our values. It’s not about who we beat, it’s how we’re going to move forward.” -@Marie4Congress https://t.co/MU9b8JWCTi" / Twitter

Justice Democrats on Twitter: "“@Marie4Congress didn’t just unseat any incumbent. She toppled a transportation subcommittee chairman who ran with the backing of the Chicago Tribune and whose last name has been on the ballot in this area for four decades.” https://t.co/3ByRZHd6d4" / Twitter
I fact-checked that assertion about his committee chairmanship, and it is indeed correct.

Justice Democrats on Twitter: "“I think it’s really simple: We expanded the coalition, we had this amazing set of progressive groups, Democratic organizations, community leaders - a highly grassroots outfit.” -@Marie4Congress https://t.co/cDMlV1p8Lr" / Twitter

Rep. Dan Lipinski's committee assignments:
  • Committee on Science, Space, and Technology
    • Energy
    • Research and Technology
  • Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure
    • Aviation
    • Highways and Transit
    • Railroads, Pipelines, and Hazardous Materials (DL is the head of this one)
 
AOC is supporting Samelys Lopez:
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Twitter: "This video is powerful not just bc of Samelys, but bc it actively educates people on structural inequity + history of the South Bronx.
It’s a campaign discussing redlining, NYC shelter system, the Young Lords, housing+healthcare guarantees.
@SamelysLopez is the real deal. 💪🏽💜 https://t.co/wvovMTPYJg" / Twitter
noting
Samelys López for NY-15🌹 (Bronx) on Twitter: "As a first-generation formerly homeless Latina, I remember the rent being due & the uncertainty it brought to my life.
That's why America needs a #HomesGuarantee & why I'm running for Congress.
Watch & RT our video & help bring our movement from BX➡️DC [url]https://t.co/7IDNBaA1oW! https://t.co/IfWEDoKahA" / Twitter[/url]
and
Samelys López for NY-15🌹 (Bronx) on Twitter: "So much of what I have comes from others; my resolve - my mother, my education - my teachers & my soul - my neighbors in the #SouthBronx.
As our campaign shifts to digital contact to check-in and connect with our neighbors, we could really use your help! https://t.co/pzXB1PaduH" / Twitter
A lot like "Courage to Change"

On Facebook: Red Lines | Samelys López - YouTube
 
AOC Ally Samelys López Looks to Break Out Amid Covid-19 Pandemic - nice profile of her. She first met AOC when working on Bernie Sanders's 2016 campaign. But they took different paths to arrive there. AOC was born in the Bronx and raised in the northern suburb of Yorktown Heights. After going to Boston University, she went back to the Bronx, and after some unsuccessful education-related efforts, she ended up commuting to a Manhattan taqueria for her bartender job.

Samelys Lopez is 10 years older than AOC. She was born in Puerto Rico to a Puerto Rican father and a mother from the Dominican Republic. Her parents divorced, and her mother moved to NYC and worked as a seamstress in a Williamsburg sweatshop. When SL was 8, her mother decided to leave an abusive partner in the middle of the night. After staying in a homeless shelter for a few years, they settled down in the Bronx. From the public schools there, she went on to Barnard College, where she interned for some Congressmembers. She went on to get a master's degree in urban planning, focusing on affordable housing, at New York University. She continued with her activism, all the way to BS's campaign. AOC was very impressed by SL, and SL campaigned for AOC when she ran. AOC is now returning the favor, just like for Bernie Sanders.

SL had interned for Jose E. Serrano, and his son Jose M. Serrano, and the latter one is now retiring because of Parkinson's disease. So it's a wide-open race, with SL as one of 15 challengers. AOC's Courage to Change PAC is now backing her.
The PAC’s support gives López a shot to break out of the pack in a scenario that threatens to go badly for progressives. The local machine boss, Rubén Díaz Sr., who is conservative, proudly homophobic, hostile to abortion rights, and allied with real estate developers, is also running for the seat. As a local state senator, he led the charge against marriage equality. Now a city council member, he has kept up his crusade. As recently as 2019, he bemoaned that the council was “controlled by the homosexual community,” remarks he has stood behind.
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So some of the progressive challengers may want to drop out, as Erica Vladimer did. Also as moderate Presidential candidates Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar did in the Presidential race.
 
Heidi for Congress 2020 - OR-01 - West Portland and the NW corner of OR

Heidi Briones's big issue is Universal Basic Income. About healthcare, she wants to "create a universal system that still allows for private insurance to cover gaps in financial coverage." People who adore their medical-insurance companies should be allowed to continue their adoration.

She likes "Democracy Dollars", a sort of nationalized donation scheme, and Ranked Choice Voting. I like the latter also.

For drug policy, she likes legalizing marijuana and decriminalizing opioid possession.

Human rights: "Those rights include the right to personal liberty and Due Process of Law; to freedom of thought, expression, religion, organization, and movement; to freedom from discrimination on the basis of race, religion, age, language, and sex; to basic education; to employment; and to property."

Finally, "Smart Action Against Climate Change": "I believe the only way to affect climate change with the necessary speed that is needed is through innovation and technology. Otherwise, we will just continue to be addicted to gasoline, asphalt roads, natural gas power plants and all the other fossil fuels that are causing climate change." Looking in Climate change — Heidi for Congress 2020 she likes both solar energy and nuclear energy.
 
Blair for Congress - in TN-01, the eastern end of state, east of Knoxville

Blair Walsingham: her platform:
  • Economic Security
    • Universal Basic Income
    • Personal Data as a Property Right
    • High Speed Internet in Rural Areas
    • Paid Family and Sick Leave
  • Healthcare
    • Universal Access to Healthcare
    • Regulate Prescription Drug Prices
    • Solutions for Our Mental Health Crisis
    • Legalize Marijuana
    • Protect the Right to Bodily Autonomy
  • Education
    • Public School Funding Solutions
    • Individualized Education Options
  • Gun Safety
    • Protect the 2nd Amendment
    • Gun Safety Education
    • Require Gun Licensing
  • Environment
    • Protect Public Land and Water
    • End Plastic Pollution
    • Sustainable Energy Production
    • Farming Initiatives
    • Support and Reform the EPA
  • Democracy Reform
    • Term Limits
    • Protect Voting Rights
    • Ranked Choice Voting
    • Democracy Dollars
    • End the Forever Wars

Checking on Ballotpedia, I find that incumbent Phil Roe (R) is not running this year. He had served for several terms, winning by high margins. It will be tough for a Democrat to compete.

Looking at OR-01, incumbent Suzanne Bonamici (D) is running again. She won previous main elections with typically 60% of the vote, and she has typically won big in the primaries.
 
Brenda Jones to Primary Against Rep Rashida Tlaib
noting
Brenda Jones announces run against Rashida Tlaib in Detroit - Detroit Free Press

From the DFP:
Jones’ argument that she is running for re-election comes from the fact that she defeated Tlaib in that same balloting for the nomination to a five-week stint in Congress, filling out the brief remainder of Conyers’ term, which was unexpired. In a predominantly Democratic district, both went on to win election to the seat easily.
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So BJ is calling it a "re-election" run.

From The Root:
Jones believes her loss in 2018 was the result of a crowded ballot. She told the Free Press “When there are less candidates, I think (I) have a really, really excellent chance of winning.”
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However, RT is much better-known now than then, I think.
While Jones has the support of Conyer’s grandnephew, Ian Conyers, and during her prior run received the support of Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, Tlaib has made a local and national name for herself during her two years in office. The left regards her as a fierce and much-needed critic of the president, while the right often portrays the Detroit-native as a sinister villain. We’re sure her being one of the first Muslim women to serve in Congress probably doesn’t have anything to do with that though.

While this upcoming faceoff between Talib and Jones may feel like yet another battle between a progressive and the established order, the twist is that the progressive has the seat and the establishment is launching the primary.
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RT's performance in office is likely to help her, I'm sure.
 
Nice speech by candidate Melanie D'Arrigo (NY-03):

Melanie D'Arrigo for Congress on Twitter: "There is no denying our country was unprepared for #Covid_19 But, how we respond in this moment will define us and tell future historians who we are.
This is our opportunity to unite and create an America that works for all of us.
We will meet this moment together.
1/2 https://t.co/CQ3P8RjcQL" / Twitter
then
Melanie D'Arrigo for Congress on Twitter: "We don't have to settle for politicians telling us what can't be done. We can have:
🚑 #MedicareForAll
😷 #PaidSickLeave
🌎 #GreenNewDeal
🏠 #HomesGuarantee
Please support my campaign with a donation & help me put #PeopleOverProfits
2/2 https://t.co/aUCRgOqHMB" / Twitter

I like her. She seems like AOC. A Nordic-looking AOC :D

Melanie D'Arrigo for Congress on Twitter: "
🚫🍍on New York🍕
🚫 corporate 💵 in politics
Don't ruin something just because you legally can.
I'm 🚫 corporate PAC 💵 because my policies aren't for sale.
[url]https://t.co/4rHBp5E273 https://t.co/sH0y1PuD6R" / Twitter[/url]
Making an analogy between corporate-funded campaigns and pineapple slices dumped on a New York pizza.

I like that. Something like Katie Porter's charts.
 
I decided to try to guess how well progressive challengers might do from victory and defeat margins. Ballotpedia is a good source, so I used it.

Victory Margins, looking backward. _ is no election yet, () is multiple elections -- primary, main
For CA and WA top-two, the primary's margin is either victory over 3rd or defeat by 2nd
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez _ (+13.4%,+64.6%)
  • Jessica Cisneros -3.6%
  • Marie Newman (+2.7%), -2.2%
  • Rachel Ventura -17.4%
  • Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez -1.3%
  • Georgette Gomez (+7.0%)
  • Cenk Uygur -18.9%
  • Paula Jean Swearengin _ -39.8%
  • Cori Bush _ -19.8%
  • Ayanna Pressley _ (+17.2%,+96.6%)
  • Rashida Tlaib _ (+1.0%,+72.9%)
  • Ilhan Omar _ (+17.8%,+56.3%)
  • Katie Porter +37.1% (+2.5%,+4.2%)
  • Pramila Jayapal _ (+82.7%,+67.2%) (+23.0%,+12.0%)
  • Ro Khanna +56.7% (+54.8%,+50.6%) (+29.9%,+22.0%) (+11.1%,-3.5%)
Very incomplete, and it's hard for me to recognize any patterns in this.
 
🌹Shahid Buttar for Congress on Twitter: "The first minute of this ad effectively demonstrates how the Democratic Party has been taken over by the 1%
The final 15 seconds made my heart sink.
Trump threatens our Republic.
Corporate Democrats—including Nancy Pelosi—enable him. https://t.co/lG4SFJBI1J" / Twitter
noting
Peter J. Hasson on Twitter: "This is a brutal ad. What an optics disaster that ice cream segment was for Speaker Pelosi https://t.co/1KGPV38h8y" / Twitter

Nancy Pelosi showing off her huge freezer and the fancy ice cream in it.

🌹Shahid Buttar for Congress on Twitter: "@peterjhasson Pelosi is out of touch, but Trump has waged an even more egregious war on working Americans.
Pelosi’s failure: she moved so far to the right that she invited Trump to outflank her—and the entire Democratic Party.
We’re here to replace her from the Left on 11/3. Join us! https://t.co/74xLRzHheN" / Twitter

🌹Shahid Buttar for Congress on Twitter: "This is the difference between the voices who lead Congress in meeting the needs of the future vs the Democratic leadership:
✅ The Progressive Caucus is here to #PutPeopleFirst.
❌ Dem leaders—including millionaire Nancy Pelosi—put corporate interests first. #ExpandTheSquad https://t.co/cZcCRQUPg4" / Twitter

NP claiming to be up against right-wing Republicans in her re-election campaign:
❤️#SocialDistancing ✋🧼🤚 #MedicareForAll❤️ on Twitter: "@peterjhasson Nancy Pelosi thinks that #WeThePeople should give her money, not the other way around. #Oligarchy https://t.co/T5cQShV4ae" / Twitter
 
lpetrich said:
??????Shahid Buttar for Congress on Twitter: "The first minute of this ad effectively demonstrates how the Democratic Party has been taken over by the 1%
The final 15 seconds made my heart sink.
Trump threatens our Republic.
Corporate Democrats—including Nancy Pelosi—enable him. https://t.co/lG4SFJBI1J" / Twitter
noting
Peter J. Hasson on Twitter: "This is a brutal ad. What an optics disaster that ice cream segment was for Speaker Pelosi https://t.co/1KGPV38h8y" / Twitter

Nancy Pelosi showing off her huge freezer and the fancy ice cream in it.

??????Shahid Buttar for Congress on Twitter: "@peterjhasson Pelosi is out of touch, but Trump has waged an even more egregious war on working Americans.
Pelosi’s failure: she moved so far to the right that she invited Trump to outflank her—and the entire Democratic Party.
We’re here to replace her from the Left on 11/3. Join us! https://t.co/74xLRzHheN" / Twitter

??????Shahid Buttar for Congress on Twitter: "This is the difference between the voices who lead Congress in meeting the needs of the future vs the Democratic leadership:
✅ The Progressive Caucus is here to #PutPeopleFirst.
❌ Dem leaders—including millionaire Nancy Pelosi—put corporate interests first. #ExpandTheSquad https://t.co/cZcCRQUPg4" / Twitter

NP claiming to be up against right-wing Republicans in her re-election campaign:
❤️#SocialDistancing ✋???????????? #MedicareForAll❤️ on Twitter: "@peterjhasson Nancy Pelosi thinks that #WeThePeople should give her money, not the other way around. #Oligarchy https://t.co/T5cQShV4ae" / Twitter
Click to expand...

It is a brutal ad. Trump's media team is rocking it.

 
lpetrich said:
🌹Shahid Buttar for Congress on Twitter: "The first minute of this ad effectively demonstrates how the Democratic Party has been taken over by the 1%
The final 15 seconds made my heart sink.
Trump threatens our Republic.
Corporate Democrats—including Nancy Pelosi—enable him. https://t.co/lG4SFJBI1J" / Twitter
noting
Peter J. Hasson on Twitter: "This is a brutal ad. What an optics disaster that ice cream segment was for Speaker Pelosi https://t.co/1KGPV38h8y" / Twitter

Nancy Pelosi showing off her huge freezer and the fancy ice cream in it.

🌹Shahid Buttar for Congress on Twitter: "@peterjhasson Pelosi is out of touch, but Trump has waged an even more egregious war on working Americans.
Pelosi’s failure: she moved so far to the right that she invited Trump to outflank her—and the entire Democratic Party.
We’re here to replace her from the Left on 11/3. Join us! https://t.co/74xLRzHheN" / Twitter

🌹Shahid Buttar for Congress on Twitter: "This is the difference between the voices who lead Congress in meeting the needs of the future vs the Democratic leadership:
✅ The Progressive Caucus is here to #PutPeopleFirst.
❌ Dem leaders—including millionaire Nancy Pelosi—put corporate interests first. #ExpandTheSquad https://t.co/cZcCRQUPg4" / Twitter

NP claiming to be up against right-wing Republicans in her re-election campaign:
❤️#SocialDistancing ✋🧼🤚 #MedicareForAll❤️ on Twitter: "@peterjhasson Nancy Pelosi thinks that #WeThePeople should give her money, not the other way around. #Oligarchy https://t.co/T5cQShV4ae" / Twitter
Click to expand...

It is a brutal ad. Trump's media team is rocking it.

 
 
 
I've found two newcomers:

Warren Democrats is at Elizabeth Warren's campaign site. It endorses Sharice Davids (KS-03), Katie Porter (CA-45), and several other candidates for Congress and state legislatures, and even a candidate for governor of Puerto Rico.

American Progressives in STEM - Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics.

Here is a recent endorsement:
American Progressives In STEM on Twitter: "We’re endorsing @ZSpezakis for US Congress, NJ District 9! #NJ9 #progressive" / Twitter
then
Chris Swindell - People First. Period on Twitter: "@APISOrg endorsed @ZSpezakis. They are a brand new organization that just endorsed their very first candidates: @JENFL23 @Angelica4CA @LindseyBoylan @Marie4Congress @mh4oh @JessforDelaware & more. SN: HUGE ENDORSEMENT COMING SOON! Poss Next week! @BrandNew535 @BernieSanders https://t.co/c1x7iQbIsk" / Twitter

What might that be???

About APIS:
Being inspired by Senator Bernie Sanders and Progressive ideas, we decided to get directly involved and combine the passions of science, technology, engineering, math & social justice that so many Americans share.

Our goal is to try and unite progressive STEM workers and students that typically enter conservative fields full of government manipulation, such as healthcare, transportation industry, goods production, and high profit tech security development.

As of right now this is a gathering place for people to come together and continue to get the Progressive message into mainstream politics.

Eventually we’d like to turn it into a membership-based non-profit that will directly contribute to progressive campaigns.
Click to expand...

Also, Brand New Congress has a new endorsement: Rashida Tlaib.
 
NOW PAC - the National Organization for Women's Political Action Committee announced its endorsements on April 23: NOW PAC Announces First Slate of 2020 Endorsements — NOW PAC
  • Senate: 16
    • Challengers: 6
    • Open Seats: 1
    • Incumbents: 9
  • House: 119
    • Challengers: 16
    • Open Seats: 6
    • Incumbents: 97
Total: 135

The Senate challengers were described as "Candidates to Flip the Senate" - the Democrats need 3 more Senators for a tie, and at least 4 more for a majority.
 
Pelosi to Receive First Real Left-Wing Challenge in 30 Years

In 2010, California voters introduced a top-two primary system, where all the candidates for an office compete in the primary election and the top two of them go on to the main election. This is a common one outside the US, and it is often called a two-round or a two-ballot system.

Nancy Pelosi was in office well before then, and in Nancy Pelosi - Ballotpedia we can find her electoral history. She has a formidable history of victory:
  • 1988: D (NP) 76.4%, R 19.3%, P&F 2.3%, L 2%
  • 1990: D (NP) 77.2% R 22.8%
  • 1992: D (NP) 82.5%, R 11%, P&F 3.3%, L 3.2%
  • 1994: D (NP) 81.8%, R 18.2%
  • 1996: D (NP) 84.3%, R 12.4%, NL 3.3%
  • 1998: D (NP) 85.8%, R 12%, NL 2.1%
  • 2000: D (NP) 84.4%, R 11.7%, L 2.6%, NL 1.2%
  • 2002: D (NP) 79.6%, R 12.5%, G 6.3%, L 1.7%
  • 2004: D (NP) 82.9%, R 11.5%, P&F 3.5%, (Write-in) 2%
  • 2006: D (NP) 80.4%, R 10.7%, G 7.4%, L 1.5%
  • 2008: D (NP) 71.9%, I 16.2%, R 9.7%, L 2.3%
  • 2010: D (NP) 80.1%, R 15.1%, P&F 2.5%, L 2.3%
  • 2012: D (NP) 74.9%, R 13.6%, G 5.4%, D 3.1%, D 1.8%, D 1.3% -- D (NP) 85.1%, R 14.9%
  • 2014: D (NP) 73.6%, R 11.9%, G 5.7%, D 3.5%, P&F 1.9%, D 1.4%, I 1.2%, I 0.8% -- D (NP) 83.3%, R 16.7%
  • 2016: D (NP) 78.1%, I 7.7%, R 7.6%, G 6.6% -- D (NP) 80.9%, I 19.1%
  • 2018: D (NP) 68.5%, R 9.1%, D (SB) 8.5%, D 5.9%, D 4.6%, G 2.0%, I 1.4% -- D (NP) 86.8%, R 13.2%
  • 2020: D (NP) 74.0%, D (SB) 13.0%, R 7.7%, D 2.0%, R 1.8%, D 1.5%
D = Democratic, R = Republican, P&F = Peace and Freedom, L = Libertarian, NL = Natural Law, G = Green, I = Independent

Ballotpedia has data for primaries only for 2012 and after.
 
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