Does Trump has a chance in hell?

[Jimmy Higgins]

I ran numbers, a landslide of 10+ pts just isn't possible without Trump losing Georgia, Texas, Indiana, Arizona, and getting reamed in the big blue states. And he'd need to lose in those red states by good margins. The polls simply don't indicate this level of ass kicking.

Too many red states will still go red and they'll be redder than for Romney. The best Clinton can do may be 8.5% and 432 EVs. 432 would be huge because that includes Texas, it'd be hard to claim she doesn't have a mandate (though the Republicans would be up to it) if the largest state won by Trump was Indiana or Tennessee. Besides, Republicans will just start more investigations.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

I ran numbers, a landslide of 10+ pts just isn't possible without Trump losing Georgia, Texas, Indiana, Arizona, and getting reamed in the big blue states. And he'd need to lose in those red states by good margins. The polls simply don't indicate this level of ass kicking.

Too many red states will still go red and they'll be redder than for Romney. The best Clinton can do may be 8.5% and 432 EVs. 432 would be huge because that includes Texas, it'd be hard to claim she doesn't have a mandate (though the Republicans would be up to it) if the largest state won by Trump was Indiana or Tennessee. Besides, Republicans will just start more investigations.

Well, a lot of that will have to do with turnout. If it continues to look like Clinton is going to win big, it may both inspire her supporters and also get more ambivalent people to jump on the bandwagon so that they can say they were part of the latest thing happening. At the same time, if a lot of the Trumpettes see that he's going to lose big, they may just get despondent and stay home rather than bother to stand in line for a hopeless cause.

Waves can be self-expanding and it's looking like Clinton may be on the beginning of a wave.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I ran numbers, a landslide of 10+ pts just isn't possible without Trump losing Georgia, Texas, Indiana, Arizona, and getting reamed in the big blue states. And he'd need to lose in those red states by good margins. The polls simply don't indicate this level of ass kicking.

Too many red states will still go red and they'll be redder than for Romney. The best Clinton can do may be 8.5% and 432 EVs. 432 would be huge because that includes Texas, it'd be hard to claim she doesn't have a mandate (though the Republicans would be up to it) if the largest state won by Trump was Indiana or Tennessee. Besides, Republicans will just start more investigations.

Well, a lot of that will have to do with turnout. If it continues to look like Clinton is going to win big, it may both inspire her supporters and also get more ambivalent people to jump on the bandwagon so that they can say they were part of the latest thing happening. At the same time, if a lot of the Trumpettes see that he's going to lose big, they may just get despondent and stay home rather than bother to stand in line for a hopeless cause.

Waves can be self-expanding and it's looking like Clinton may be on the beginning of a wave.

Larry Sabato was noting that claiming the election was rigged could actually increase the chances of Trump supporters staying home.