East Wind from China

[Philos]

Hi,

The Chinese are not a boastful people, but they can be very busy. An example of this is the new ‘East Wind ‘ DF-41 intercontinental ballistic missile. Capable of striking anywhere in the USA within 30 minutes, each 80 ton missile is capable of carrying 6-12 warheads.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xPk5dlPY54Y

https://www.rt.com/news/340359-china-test-ballistic-missile/

It is interesting to note that the Chinese have chosen to follow the Russian strategy of MIRV technology, relying on speed and spread to overcome an American missile shield. It is likely that they will also employ an array of dummy warheads in the payload, designed to cheat the American missile defences into useless targetting, while the majority of MIRV warheads successfully reach their targets. Chinese ICBMs have previously had a warhead output of 5000 kilotons (Hiroshima was 17 kilotons) so that is likely the lowest output we will see on the new ‘East Wind’.

The Russian ‘Satan II’ missiles (7,500 kilotons) are coming into operation around 2018, with the ‘East Wind’ somewhat earlier, probably currently. It will be interesting to see the Western responses to this upgraded strike capability from China and Russia; what might we expect?

A.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

And so Russia and China have ICBMs approaching the capability of ours at least in what they can throw. Not exactly big news.

 

[Will Wiley]

It will be interesting to see the Western responses to this upgraded strike capability from China and Russia; what might we expect?

A.

I will have to find the links, but I think there has been things written in "neocon" type publications arguing for the US having a strategy of having bigger and better weapons than any potential rival and basically being able to intimidate anyone else into submitting or complying. This seems consistent with what we see, and from what we know of Trump he salivates at such a strategy.
So I guess we can expect bigger military budgets rather than negotiation and cooperation. I can't see the prospect of much negotiation unless the US begins to see Russia and China as equals.
What do you expect?

 

[Will Wiley]

What I wonder is do those in charge in the USA think that they might be able to launch a pre emptive strike on Russia?

They demonised Saddam and then attacked and enough people thought it was ok.
They demonised Gadaffi and then attacked, and enough people thought it was ok.
They demonised and then attacked Assad and enough people thought it was ok.

They have demonised Putin now, but not attacked....yet.

So unless somehow America can begin to talk rather than threaten, or retreat somewhat then there must be a chance that either America will attack Russia or that Russia will attack America.

Or will Putin be the one that they demonise but do not attack?

 

[Elixir]

They have demonised Putin now, but not attacked....yet.

Who is "they"?
Trump has played Putin into the catbird seat, letting him sit back and watch the US get itself spread out in Syria, N Korea and Afghanistan while accruing no threat to himself.
Everything Trump does continues to favor Putin. Is anyone surprised?

 

[Will Wiley]

They have demonised Putin now, but not attacked....yet.

Who is "they"?
Trump has played Putin into the catbird seat, letting him sit back and watch the US get itself spread out in Syria, N Korea and Afghanistan while accruing no threat to himself.
Everything Trump does continues to favor Putin. Is anyone surprised?

America's foreign policy has been completely idiotic for a very long time, but you guys never seem to really care. Trillions of dollars wasted on wars you never win, yet you keep doing it. Meanwhile your infrastructure is in a woeful state in many places.

[YOUTUBE]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SGbZ8WdrNF8[/YOUTUBE]

 

[Philos]

And so Russia and China have ICBMs approaching the capability of ours at least in what they can throw. Not exactly big news.

Loren,

AFAIK the Americans are still relying on the old silo based 'Minute Man' system from the 1970s. The Russians and Chinese seem to be focusing on developing high tech solutions rather than the old Yankee gas guzzlers, which gives them more bang for the buck.

I don't how far the tech has been guided by Raygun's Star Wars idea, but it does seem to be a workaround, at least in part.

To me, the big news is the amount of cooperation and coordination between Russia and China in the light of a common enemy. For example, a good proportion of the mobile launchers are sited along the common border. I puzzled on this for a while and then it clicked. Having the ICBMs close to each other would ensure than both countries would retaliate together in the event of a US first strike. The Pentagon will know that and hopefully draw the correct conclusions.

The latest numbers that I can find for deployed ballistic warheads (of all types) is:

Russia and China - 2025

US - 1411

That is a pretty balanced number and certainly enough to make MMGW more than a contentious hypothesis for all of us.

A.

 

[tupac chopra]

It will be interesting to see the Western responses to this upgraded strike capability from China and Russia; what might we expect?

A.

We will be told that Russia and or china are threats to world stability and peace?

 

[LordKiran]

It will be interesting to see the Western responses to this upgraded strike capability from China and Russia; what might we expect?

A.

I will have to find the links, but I think there has been things written in "neocon" type publications arguing for the US having a strategy of having bigger and better weapons than any potential rival and basically being able to intimidate anyone else into submitting or complying. This seems consistent with what we see, and from what we know of Trump he salivates at such a strategy.
So I guess we can expect bigger military budgets rather than negotiation and cooperation. I can't see the prospect of much negotiation unless the US begins to see Russia and China as equals.
What do you expect?

That would require humility on part of the people in power and the general public. It's hard to be humble when you've been raised and educated on nationalistic poison your entire life. American Exceptionalism indeed.

 

[barbos]

Russian press made a big deal about China moving their mobile nukes close to Russian border. They interpreted it as chinese trusting Russia. I can't say the same about Russia though. Center of Russia just happened to be close to China, and these nukes have been there since the beginning of the Cold War when China was not a threat. Now, I am not so sure.

 

[fromderinside]

Yeah. Reasonable peoples always move their most fearsome assets close to those they trust most. WHA????

 

[Tom Sawyer]

Yeah. Reasonable peoples always move their most fearsome assets close to those they trust most. WHA????

This is why there are so many nukes in North Dakota and such. It's not like Canadians are so polite out of a free choice on our part, after all. It's because we're constantly worried about what will happen if we end up offending the group of crazy-assed dipshits who live next to us. So long as you have those things sitting close to us, we're not going to put a foot wrong.

 

[funinspace]

And so Russia and China have ICBMs approaching the capability of ours at least in what they can throw. Not exactly big news.

Loren,

AFAIK the Americans are still relying on the old silo based 'Minute Man' system from the 1970s. The Russians and Chinese seem to be focusing on developing high tech solutions rather than the old Yankee gas guzzlers, which gives them more bang for the buck.

I don't how far the tech has been guided by Raygun's Star Wars idea, but it does seem to be a workaround, at least in part.

Philo's, I suspect that you are relatively uninformed on this topic. The most important leg in the US nuclear triad are on board the Ohio-class submarines (boomers). Ask Keith & Co.... And they have had operational MIRV technology on the UGM-133A Trident II D-5 SLBM deployed starting in 1990 (I think). The US satellite and radar systems far outclass Russian and Chinese technology, which helps in targeting, preventing surprise, et.al. And our B-2's, B-1's, and ancient (but functional) B-52's, can in heightened alert situations carry nuclear missiles as well.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_triad#United_States
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UGM-133_Trident_II
http://www.designation-systems.net/dusrm/m-133.html

And the US is also not standing still. The US has approved the development of the next generation boomer (aka Colombia class submarine):
http://www.defensenews.com/articles/us-navy-missile-submarine-gets-go-ahead

And last year awarded $21 billion for the next generation bomber:
http://newatlas.com/b-21-raider-christened/45502/

Built by Northrop Grumman under an initial US$21.4 billion development contract, the Raider carries nuclear and heavy conventional payloads and can counter next-generation anti-aircraft systems. Under current plans, 80 to 100 raiders will be built though the 2040s in five tranches of 21 aircraft at an estimated cost of US$511 million each. To reduce costs, it will use existing technology where possible.

The US didn't bother to develop a new land based system for the same reason the US didn't keep it's horse cavalry units. Boomers hide very well in the Yuge deep blue...

 

[Loren Pechtel]

The US didn't bother to develop a new land based system for the same reason the US didn't keep it's horse cavalry units. Boomers hide very well in the Yuge deep blue...

Exactly. Against modern missiles silos are basically targets. If there are inbound birds you have fire your own or lose them in the silos. This encourages launch-on-warning which is a bad thing.

Boomers are much better at present, nobody has the ability to reliably track them when they're on patrol. Since they can't be attacked until they show themselves there is no use-or-lose aspect, we can ride out a missile strike with our ability to retaliate basically unharmed. This means we don't need to launch on warning, no accidental end of the world.

It also means that a decapitation strike against us won't work--while they almost certainly could do a major number on our command and control which would likely let them get their missiles in before we could sort things out and get our birds in the air it wouldn't stop the boomers.

 

[barbos]

Yeah. Reasonable peoples always move their most fearsome assets close to those they trust most. WHA????

Father from these they trust the least (USA) and in this particular case it means closer to Russia.

 

[ZiprHead]

Fun fact: when I first met my wife-to-be, she was working as a waitress in a Chinese restaurant called East Wind.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Yeah. Reasonable peoples always move their most fearsome assets close to those they trust most. WHA????

Father from these they trust the least (USA) and in this particular case it means closer to Russia.

I think it's more likely that they both simply chose the place for the same reason--far from the ocean.

 

[Philos]

To reduce costs...

fun,

Not likely. There will never be enough.

A.

 

[Philos]

Russian press made a big deal about China moving their mobile nukes close to Russian border. They interpreted it as chinese trusting Russia. I can't say the same about Russia though. Center of Russia just happened to be close to China, and these nukes have been there since the beginning of the Cold War when China was not a threat. Now, I am not so sure.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LLC28B2bwpw

A.

 

[Lugubert]

Fun fact: when I first met my wife-to-be, she was working as a waitress in a Chinese restaurant called East Wind.

It is not exactly a unique name: There's for example Dongfeng (East Wind!) Motor Corporation, one of the "Big Three" Chinese automakers.