Election Predictions and LiveBlog

[Jimmy Higgins]

Democrat goose is cooked.

Incredible what it takes for the Republicans to lose power verses the Democrats.

 

[Derec]

As expected, Colorado was just called for Cory Gardnier (R). This is a particularly 'sweet' win for the GOP because Colorado is a purple state, and Udall is intensely disliked by the State's rightwingers - the GOP get out the early vote effort massively helped the GOP (a 100,000 vote lead in early voting).

This decisive loss was despite Garnder being rather far to the right, even supporting the Personhood amendment.
On the economic/energy side of the issues, Udall voted against the Keystone XL pipeline when it came up to the vote. I think that harmed him.

And in Louisiana, even though Mary Landrieu was in favor of the pipeline, her getting no respect or support from either Obama or Reid on that issue surely harmed her as well.
The national Democratic Party and Obama thought that anti-Keystone ecomentalists and Tom Steyer's equally anti-Keystone millions would be their salvation of Dems in the midterms but they proved to be fool's gold in the end.

 

[maxparrish]

Kansas just declared for GOP.
Georgia not called but does not look good for Dem's. May be no runoff.
Iowa - 30 percent in DEM looks solid with 6 percent lead. However, key counties still not reporting and polls suggest a tight race.
NC - Hagan now is serious trouble. What looked to be an easy DEM win is going to be very close, with Tillis STILL leading.

Curious - NH is now 50-50. It was called for DEMs sometime ago but it is still curious that the race has tightened.
Curious - Virginia still razor thin, but DEMs should still win with 92 percent of vote in. Last 8 percent are mainly democratic areas.
Curious - McConnell crushed what's her name by 15 percentage points! Supposed to be a lot closer.

David Perdue crushed Michelle Nunn at 55 percent. No runoff.

Now the the GOP has secured Kansas and Georgia, the GOP needs to take one of the following: NC, Iowa, NH, or Alaska. If they do the Louisiana runoff will be irrelevant.

 

[boneyard bill]

Mark Warner will squeak through. Pryor is toast. You are correct, Scott looks like a winner.

Georgia looks good for GOP.
NH and NC looks good for Democrats.

So far, Higgins and Parrish predictions right on track.

As expected, Colorado was just called for Cory Gardnier (R). This is a particularly 'sweet' win for the GOP because Colorado is a purple state, and Udall is intensely disliked by the State's rightwingers - the GOP get out the early vote effort massively helped the GOP (a 100,000 vote lead in early voting).

Anyway, at this point, there is the GOP has gained five seats.

Montana - GOP
South Dakota - GOP
Colorado - GOP
Arkansas - GOP
West Virginia - GOP

Alaska (likely GOP)
Georgia - Looks Likely to Go GOP, without runoff

Louisiana - Looks to go to Runoff, with GOP projected winner

Iowa - Too early but Dem leads substantially with 20 percent of vote in
NC - all the numbers geeks say Hagan will still win, but with 75 percent of the vote in it is still very tight...moments ago Tillis took a 2 percent lead.

NH - Stays Dem.
Virginia - So far an unexpectedly tight race. But still VERY likely to stay Dem because Fairfax county intentionally holds back reporting votes till it "sees" state trends.

Kansas - Tossup - tight race but at this point Roberts is slightly ahead.

Current Prognostication

Current route to Democrats retaining control - Win Kansas, Force Georgia to Runoff, keep Iowa and NC.

Should Roberts win Kansas or Enzi Iowa or NC to GOP, game over.

Governor Races - Democrats biggest target was Walker, who just trounced Mary Burke in a deep blue state. Looks like they will have to double their lawfare efforts.

Florida - Charlie Crist, the most loathed by the GOP in this year's races, is likely to loss.

It looks like game over for Dems already. Perdue leads Nunn by about 250,000 votes with 91% counted but Politico still hasn't called it for Perdue.

Hagan losing to Tillis in NC by about 150,000 votes with 91% in. Hagan still has a chance but time is running out. Libertarian polling about 3.7% may be keeping Hagan in the race.

Warner has moved into the lead in Virginia. Gillespie still has a chance but very,very slight. Libertarian Sarvis pulled about 2.7% the majority of which might have gone to Gillespie although I wouldn't say for sure. He's a big, big beltway guy.

Politico just called Georgia for Perdue.

Louisiana goes to a runoff.

 

[Ford]

Democrat goose is cooked.

Incredible what it takes for the Republicans to lose power verses the Democrats.

And if the pattern from the last 2 decades holds, we'll get a GOP President next.

In '92, after more than a decade of GOP rule we said "let's not do that again" and elected Clinton.


Then, despite the economy of the 90s blowing the 80s economy out of the water, the GOP somehow convinced everyone that Clinton sucked, and took over Congress and then the White House.


After a solid decade of proving they couldn't legislate their way out of a wet paper bag, the Republicans were sent packing in 2006 and 2008. Six years later we're looking at an economy that is objectively better by every standard than it was when Obama took over,and the GOP has somehow convinced everyone that he sucks.


Two years from now Jeb Bush will no doubt sail with flying colors into the White House and we'll start all this shit over again.

 

[maxparrish]

Iowa - Ernst now leads 4 percent with 56 percent in.
NC - 96 percent of vote in. Tillis still leads by 2 percent.
NH - Sheehan regains 2 percent lead, still should be DEM victory.
Alaska - Won't know shit till tomorrow.
Virgina - Still should be DEM victory.

BREAKING NEWS - Fox News calls it for Joni Ernst.
BREAKING NEWS - Tom Tillis called for NC by AP Press.
BREAKING NEWS - Charlie Crist calls Scott to concede.

The GOP now has control of the Senate by two votes. Now we will see if they can add Alaska and Louisiana there will be a gain of nine Senate seats.

Estimated 10 seat House Gains for GOP.

 

[boneyard bill]

Kansas just declared for GOP.
Georgia not called but does not look good for Dem's. May be no runoff.
Iowa - 30 percent in DEM looks solid with 6 percent lead. However, key counties still not reporting and polls suggest a tight race.
NC - Hagan now is serious trouble. What looked to be an easy DEM win is going to be very close, with Tillis STILL leading.

Curious - NH is now 50-50. It was called for DEMs sometime ago but it is still curious that the race has tightened.
Curious - Virginia still razor thin, but DEMs should still win with 92 percent of vote in. Last 8 percent are mainly democratic areas.
Curious - McConnell crushed what's her name by 15 percentage points! Supposed to be a lot closer.

David Perdue crushed Michelle Nunn at 55 percent. No runoff.

Now the the GOP has secured Kansas and Georgia, the GOP needs to take one of the following: NC, Iowa, NH, or Alaska. If they do the Louisiana runoff will be irrelevant.

Republicans have gained 5 with no losses. If they win where they are ahead now, they will pick up 2 more.

Ernst has just taken the lead in Iowa. Tillis still ahead by 50,000 (my last report of 150,000 was erroneous). Va. still hanging but Warner leads. GOP needs either Iowa or NC or Alaska to get control despite La. runoff. Alaska polls won't close until 1:00 AM. ET

 

[boneyard bill]

Iowa - Ernst now leads 4 percent with 56 percent in.
NC - 96 percent of vote in. Tillis still leads by 2 percent.
NH - Sheehan regains 2 percent lead, still should be DEM victory.
Alaska - Won't know shit till tomorrow.
Virgina - Still should be DEM victory.

BREAKING NEWS - Fox News calls it for Joni Ernst.
BREAKING NEWS - Tom Tillis called for NC by AP Press.
BREAKING NEWS - Charlie Crist calls Scott to concede.

The GOP now has control of the Senate by two votes. Now we will see if they can add Alaska and Louisiana there will be a gain of nine Senate seats.

Estimated 10 seat House Gains for GOP.

Warner leads by 14,000 with only .6% out. This should go his way but Politico has yet to call it.

All of my early October predictions were correct except NC which I called for Hagan. I called La. for Cassidy without a runoff so I was also wrong there. I thought Maness vote would fall off heavily on election day, but it didn't. Of course we still don't know about Alaska which I called for Sullivan.

 

[Derec]

Still no call in the gubernatorial elections in Massachusetts and Connecticut.
I truly hope Martha Coakley loses (she is currently trailing Baker slightly). She should be radioactive to the state Democratic party over her role in the daycare witch hunts. Instead, the hapless state party (4 out of 5 MA governors have been Republicans despite it being a deep blue state) nominated this woman twice! They truly deserve to lose.

In Connecticut there is a much less somber issue at hand - let's call it Boatghazi. I found Gov. Malloy's overreaction to the non-issue of the name quite distasteful. But which name do you prefer? Odalisque (R), Sapphire (D) or the environmentally responsible rowboat Back Alley Sally (G)?

 

[Duke Leto]

Two years from now Jeb Bush will no doubt sail with flying colors into the White House and we'll start all this shit over again.

The 2016 electorate will not be the 2014 electorate, and the GOP Primary system has not been tamed of its tendency to produce lunatics. There's also unlikely to be another Ebola outbreak.

 

[Derec]

Two years from now Jeb Bush will no doubt sail with flying colors into the White House and we'll start all this shit over again.

The 2016 electorate will not be the 2014 electorate, and the GOP Primary system has not been tamed of its tendency to produce lunatics. There's also unlikely to be another Ebola outbreak.

But if Democrats are stupid enough to nominate "dead broke girl" Hillary they will probably lose anyway. They are probably stupid enough.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

After a solid decade of proving they couldn't legislate their way out of a wet paper bag, the Republicans were sent packing in 2006 and 2008. Six years later we're looking at an economy that is objectively better by every standard than it was when Obama took over,and the GOP has somehow convinced everyone that he sucks.

Anthrax v Ebola
Billions missing in Iraq v $100 million for Solyndra
9/11 v Benghazi
Response to Katrina v Response to Ebola
Global protests against Iraq invasion v BS angry white mob protests being planned less than a month into Obama's Presidency
Outing of a NOC-List CIA Agent v ... umm... The IRS "Scandal"?
Trillions of more debt from war spending and tax cuts v Trillions of more debt from nondiscretionary spending increases and tax cuts
Two foreign occupations v bombing 7 nations
Fast and Furious v Fast and Furious

So what is the lesson? The Democrats scraped together a majority, even a super majority in the Senate, by not causing much ruckus, charging the W Administration with any crimes, not investigating the lost billions in Iraq, pretty much leaving the Republicans alone. Didn't investigate any of the Wall Street assbags responsible for 2008. And for what? A shit ACA? Other than the economy getting noticeably better (which shouldn't be a partisan goal), did the liberals get anything in the last 6 years? Anything at all? What in the heck is the point of compromising your values when you don't get anything that you think needs to be gotten? ETA: Two Supreme Court Justices. That is about it.

It fucking takes 5,000 body bags containing the bodies or most of the bodies of American troops for the Republicans to lose control on Congress. For the Democrats, 6 years of Republican wailing and the passage of a health care reform bill that has limited negative effect on most Americans.

 

[Derec]

So how will Obama react to this defeat? Will he persist in his blocking of the Keystone XL approval? Will he insist to give millions of illegals amnesty through executive order while doing nothing for border security?
I think both would be mistakes.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

So how will Obama react to this defeat? Will he persist in his blocking of the Keystone XL approval?

I know the Keystone XL is our generations Panama Canal, Egyptian Pyramids, and Stonehenge all combined into one, but seriously it isn't that fucking big of a deal!

Will he insist to give millions of illegals amnesty through executive order while doing nothing for border security?

Doing nothing? Do we have no one on the Border? No customs or agents? Nobody at all?

I think both would be mistakes.

You think a lot of stuff.

 

[Derec]

I know the Keystone XL is our generations Panama Canal, Egyptian Pyramids, and Stonehenge all combined into one, but seriously it isn't that fucking big of a deal!

Tell that to the likes of Tom Steyer who gave tens of millions of dollars to Democratic candidates in order to defeat the pipeline.
If it's not that big a deal, why has Obama been blocking it for purely political reasons for years instead of allowing approval to proceed without political meddling? Because the pipeline has been made into a big deal by ecomentalists and Obama was hoping they will save D's bacon in these Midterms. He gambled wrong and lost.

Doing nothing? Do we have no one on the Border? No customs or agents? Nobody at all?

That's not enough, as evidenced in 20 million or so illegals, mostly hispanics from Mexico and Central America, that are in the country right now. Remember last year's invasion of thousands of illegal Central American minors that will most probably get to stay?
We need a border fence and better border enforcement. We need mandatory eVerify system to make it more difficult for illegals to find work. We need local law enforcement to extradite arrested illegals to ICE for deportation. We need to end the concept of "sanctuary cities". All these thing are anathema to those that want more illegal hispanic immigration because they want to decrease white percentage in the US because they think minorities will always vote D.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

So how will Obama react to this defeat? Will he persist in his blocking of the Keystone XL approval? Will he insist to give millions of illegals amnesty through executive order while doing nothing for border security?
I think both would be mistakes.

I predict that Obama's reaction will be to wax poetic about the need for bipartisan compromise and having everybody work together for the good of the nation, followed by two years of both sides holding their breath until they turn blue and getting nothing done.

Would anybody like to bet against me on this? I'm open to all offers.

 

[dismal]

Jimmy is right. Keystone is not that big of a deal. But it's a great symbol of the Democrats defying common sense and the will of the people to bolster their minority coalition that doesn't vote in mid terms.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Tell that to the likes of Tom Steyer who gave tens of millions of dollars to Democratic candidates in order to defeat the pipeline.

I'm talking about the contribution it'll give to the US economy or energy industry. It is a relatively small cog.

Doing nothing? Do we have no one on the Border? No customs or agents? Nobody at all?

That's not enough, as evidenced in 20 million or so illegals, mostly hispanics from Mexico and Central America, that are in the country right now.

You mean the illegals that crossed into the country during the W and Clinton Administrations? Because illegal crossings dropped noticeably since '09 due to the great recession.

- - - Updated - - -

Jimmy is right. Keystone is not that big of a deal. But it's a great symbol of the Democrats defying common sense and the will of the people to bolster their minority coalition that doesn't vote in mid terms.

The only people that give a fuck about Keystone XL are the Dittoheads out there. Most of America doesn't even know what it is! Probably think it is a Malt Liquor or something.

 

[funinspace]

After a solid decade of proving they couldn't legislate their way out of a wet paper bag, the Republicans were sent packing in 2006 and 2008. Six years later we're looking at an economy that is objectively better by every standard than it was when Obama took over,and the GOP has somehow convinced everyone that he sucks.

Anthrax v Ebola
Billions missing in Iraq v $100 million for Solyndra
9/11 v Benghazi
Response to Katrina v Response to Ebola
Global protests against Iraq invasion v BS angry white mob protests being planned less than a month into Obama's Presidency
Outing of a NOC-List CIA Agent v ... umm... The IRS "Scandal"?
Trillions of more debt from war spending and tax cuts v Trillions of more debt from nondiscretionary spending increases and tax cuts
Two foreign occupations v bombing 7 nations
Fast and Furious v Fast and Furious

So what is the lesson? The Democrats scraped together a majority, even a super majority in the Senate, by not causing much ruckus, charging the W Administration with any crimes, not investigating the lost billions in Iraq, pretty much leaving the Republicans alone. Didn't investigate any of the Wall Street assbags responsible for 2008. And for what? A shit ACA? Other than the economy getting noticeably better (which shouldn't be a partisan goal), did the liberals get anything in the last 6 years? Anything at all? What in the heck is the point of compromising your values when you don't get anything that you think needs to be gotten? ETA: Two Supreme Court Justices. That is about it.

Sure the economy is noticeably better than it was in January 2009, but it is still a sucky economy for a huge swath of people; and 5 years into this recovery it is the suckiest recovery since the GD.
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/a...-gain-from-voter-dissatisfaction-over-economy

Most Americans haven’t shared in the gains. Adjusted for inflation, the July median household income of $54,045 was $2,600 lower than in December 2007, when the recession began, according to Sentier Research, an economic-consulting firm.

Jimmy you are making this way too complicated. This was primarily about the economy. After 6 years of it being Obama’s economy to shape, I’d say he ran out of time, rightly or wrongly. I would guess that Ebola and ISIS has created an added fear factor that leaned a few more people towards punishing the current party in power, whether or not the Repugs have anything to offer. On the plus side of the ledger, there is little for the Dums to boast about….

Meanwhile, we will have continued racket protection and support of the Banksters;
We will continue to have full support for neocon military-complex;
We will continue to have full support for our internal spying apparatus.

 

[PyramidHead]

I don't see how these results change much except for the political theatre that will ensue. Just as the House blocked anything Obama and the old Senate wanted to do, Obama will veto anything Congress wants to do.