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Election Predictions and LiveBlog

Sure the economy is noticeably better than it was in January 2009, but it is still a sucky economy for a huge swath of people; and 5 years into this recovery it is the suckiest recovery since the GD.
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/a...-gain-from-voter-dissatisfaction-over-economy
Most Americans haven’t shared in the gains. Adjusted for inflation, the July median household income of $54,045 was $2,600 lower than in December 2007, when the recession began, according to Sentier Research, an economic-consulting firm.
Is this a surprise? It was the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression and if the Global actions weren't so well synthesized, it could have easily been worse than the Great Depression.

Jimmy you are making this way too complicated. This was primarily about the economy. After 6 years of it being Obama’s economy to shape, I’d say he ran out of time, rightly or wrongly. I would guess that Ebola and ISIS has created an added fear factor that leaned a few more people towards punishing the current party in power, whether or not the Repugs have anything to offer. On the plus side of the ledger, there is little for the Dums to boast about….
Yeah... that was part of my point. Two Supreme Court Justices.

Meanwhile, we will have continued racket protection and support of the Banksters;
We will continue to have full support for neocon military-complex;
We will continue to have full support for our internal spying apparatus.
So much for the "socialist" Democrats.
 
Jimmy is right. Keystone is not that big of a deal. But it's a great symbol of the Democrats defying common sense and the will of the people to bolster their minority coalition that doesn't vote in mid terms.
The only people that give a fuck about Keystone XL are the Dittoheads out there. Most of America doesn't even know what it is! Probably think it is a Malt Liquor or something.

Nope, sorry. In the ordinary course of business Keystone would have been approved years ago like the dozens of other pipelines that have been approved before and since.

The irrationality that surrounds Keystone is strictly because the left irrationally picked it to be their irrational symbol.

The right mentions it a lot because a) they have the correct position b) they have the will of the people on their side c) it's a winning issue for them because of A and B.

Beating your opponents over the head with their own stupidity is how elections are won. Building a coalition of voters that doesn't have enough votes to win outside of big cities and Hawaii is not.

See: midterms, 2014
 
The only people that give a fuck about Keystone XL are the Dittoheads out there. Most of America doesn't even know what it is! Probably think it is a Malt Liquor or something.

Nope, sorry. In the ordinary course of business Keystone would have been approved years ago like the dozens of other pipelines that have been approved before and since.

The irrationality that surrounds Keystone is strictly because the left irrationally picked it to be their irrational symbol.
This does not address the minor factor that most Americans most likely don't know what Keystone XL is.
Beating your opponents over the head with their own stupidity is how elections are won. Building a coalition of voters that doesn't have enough votes to win outside of big cities and Hawaii is not.

See: midterms, 2014
Yes, we'll pretend that Gerrymandering had no effect on the elections. Congress approval is slightly below Ebola approval, yet incumbency kicked butts.
 
The only people that give a fuck about Keystone XL are the Dittoheads out there. Most of America doesn't even know what it is! Probably think it is a Malt Liquor or something.

Nope, sorry. In the ordinary course of business Keystone would have been approved years ago like the dozens of other pipelines that have been approved before and since.
You mean through kickbacks and outright bribery? The locals don't want it. It is not going to bring in the billions of jobs promised.


The irrationality that surrounds Keystone is strictly because the left irrationally picked it to be their irrational symbol.
Or it could be that the locals don't want it, and the Koch bros do.

The right mentions it a lot because a) they have the correct position b) they have the will of the people on their side c) it's a winning issue for them because of A and B.
No they mention it because their billionaire backers require them to push it through the Federal Government because the states won't approve it.

Beating your opponents over the head with their own stupidity is how elections are won. Building a coalition of voters that doesn't have enough votes to win outside of big cities and Hawaii is not.
Gerrymandering and appealing to fears is how elections are won.

See: midterms, 2014
 
I'm talking about the contribution it'll give to the US economy or energy industry. It is a relatively small cog.
You can't expect any individual project to be anything else. Even Ghawar, by far the world's biggest oil field, can be described as a "relatively small cog" as it produces 5 Mbbl/day out of worldwide production of about 80 Mbbl/day. It would be a mistake to dismiss its significance though.
Keystone XL will be able to move ~800 kbbl/day of oil from Canadian oil sands developments. That's quite a sizeable amount. It is also cheaper and safer than moving that oil via railroads. It will create jobs, especially during construction, and reduce dependence on hostile exporters like Venezuela (that also have very heavy oil) in favor of a friendly democracy like Canada.

You mean the illegals that crossed into the country during the W and Clinton Administrations? Because illegal crossings dropped noticeably since '09 due to the great recession.
The problem hasn't been created by Obama, true enough. But as you say, the slowdown in illegal crossings is not due to Obama improving enforcement either. And it is Obama who wants to push an amnesty plan through executive order.

The only people that give a fuck about Keystone XL are the Dittoheads out there.
Who are "dittoheads"? I must assume you mean "those not on the Left". In that case you are very much mistaken.
o-KEYSTONE-PROTEST-facebook.jpg

keystone-xl-texas-blockade-sept-2012.jpg

Most of America doesn't even know what it is! Probably think it is a Malt Liquor or something.
There have been polls showing a sizable majority supports building the pipeline, including a small majority of Democrats. That kind of implies people have heard about it otherwise there'd be more "I don't knows".
 
I don't see how these results change much except for the political theatre that will ensue. Just as the House blocked anything Obama and the old Senate wanted to do, Obama will veto anything Congress wants to do.
One notable change will be appointments which are under the purview of the Senate, not the full Congress. Democrats in the Senate ended the judicial nomination filibuster which allowed them to approve nominees with a simple majority vote but that majority will go away come January.
 
See: midterms, 2014
Yes, we'll pretend that Gerrymandering had no effect on the elections. Congress approval is slightly below Ebola approval, yet incumbency

Yes, we and the scientists who have studied the issue and the New York Times will continue to pretend gerrymandering has little effect on the congress.

You know what? While I'm at it I'm going to also pretend gerrymandering had little effect on losing the governorships in places like Maryland, Illinois and Massachusetts.
 
Sure the economy is noticeably better than it was in January 2009, but it is still a sucky economy for a huge swath of people; and 5 years into this recovery it is the suckiest recovery since the GD.
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/a...-gain-from-voter-dissatisfaction-over-economy
Is this a surprise? It was the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression and if the Global actions weren't so well synthesized, it could have easily been worse than the Great Depression.
I’m sorry, I was busy watching sexy <fill in the blank> twerk, what were you saying?

Jimmy you are making this way too complicated. This was primarily about the economy. After 6 years of it being Obama’s economy to shape, I’d say he ran out of time, rightly or wrongly. I would guess that Ebola and ISIS has created an added fear factor that leaned a few more people towards punishing the current party in power, whether or not the Repugs have anything to offer. On the plus side of the ledger, there is little for the Dums to boast about….
Yeah... that was part of my point. Two Supreme Court Justices.
Yeah, but you still included a lot of noise, which confused what I got out of your point…

Meanwhile, we will have continued racket protection and support of the Banksters;
We will continue to have full support for neocon military-complex;
We will continue to have full support for our internal spying apparatus.
So much for the "socialist" Democrats.
Repug light doesn’t work?
 
Yes, we'll pretend that Gerrymandering had no effect on the elections. Congress approval is slightly below Ebola approval, yet incumbency kicked butts.
Gerrymandering is indeed a problem, but for House and state legislatures only. It has no effect on statewide elections like for Senate and Governors. And the majority in the Senate is what was most at stake in these elections and Democrats performed dismally (no pun intended). I expected them to lose the majority but not this bad. They also lost quite a few governorships, most notably Massachusetts (Martha Coakley deserved to lose as did the state party for nominating her twice), Illinois and Maryland. No gerrymandering there. They did manage to flip Pennsylvania in their favor though, one of the very few positives in this election.
 
Yes, we'll pretend that Gerrymandering had no effect on the elections. Congress approval is slightly below Ebola approval, yet incumbency
Yes, we and the scientists who have studied the issue and the New York Times will continue to pretend gerrymandering has little effect on the congress.

You know what? While I'm at it I'm going to also pretend gerrymandering had little effect on losing the governorships in places like Maryland, Illinois and Massachusetts.
I'm talking about the House of Representatives. You know... the only major electoral institution that Gerrymandering affects. The House of Reps has an approval rating lower than Hermes Conrad can limbo.

In Ohio, incumbents were re-elected 16 for 16, and only in 2 districts did the winner have less than 60%.
In Texas 33 for 36. Of the 3, only one incumbent actually lost. The others were open seats. Only 3 districts saw the winner obtain less than 60%.
In Georgia 10 for 14. Several (5) ran unopposed. Only one incumbent lost. Only two races saw the winner below 60%.
In Arizona 7 for 9. One was an open seat, the other is too close to call, with the incumbent down less than 50 votes with 75% reporting. At least, those elections were somewhat close, a few under 55%.
In Illinois 16 of 18 re-elected. Two incumbents likely to lose. Only 6 races saw winners with less than 60%.

Illinois ousted an apparent crook. Dems nominated Coakley who had already lost for some reason, and Massachusetts hasn't been cold shouldered to Republican Governors in the past 20+ years.
 
You mean through kickbacks and outright bribery?
You mean like Tom Steyer giving money to (soon to be ex-) Senator Mark Udall to vote against the pipeline?
The locals don't want it.
That's the NIMBY effect. If we allowed it to reign supreme, nothing of any size of significance could ever get built.
It is not going to bring in the billions of jobs promised.
Who promised that?
Or it could be that the locals don't want it, and the Koch bros do.
As do the American people, including a slight majority of Democrats.

No they mention it because their billionaire backers require them to push it through the Federal Government because the states won't approve it.
You are wrong. Federal (state department) approval was needed for the northern leg of the pipeline because it crossed the international border. It has nothing to do with states not wanting to approve it. It should have been a routine, non-political approval. Instead the Obama administration made a political issue of it (in part because his billionaire backer required him to). Of course, it backfired.
Gerrymandering and appealing to fears is how elections are won.
What does gerrymandering have to do with Democratic losses in the Senate and among state governors?
 
Yes, we'll pretend that Gerrymandering had no effect on the elections. Congress approval is slightly below Ebola approval, yet incumbency kicked butts.
Gerrymandering is indeed a problem, but for House and state legislatures only. It has no effect on statewide elections like for Senate and Governors. And the majority in the Senate is what was most at stake in these elections and Democrats performed dismally (no pun intended). I expected them to lose the majority but not this bad. They also lost quite a few governorships, most notably Massachusetts (Martha Coakley deserved to lose as did the state party for nominating her twice), Illinois and Maryland. No gerrymandering there. They did manage to flip Pennsylvania in their favor though, one of the very few positives in this election.

Repeat: researchers who actually research stuff at research schools have concluded that their research shows gerrymandering effect on congress is small.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/26/opinion/sunday/its-the-geography-stupid.html?_r=0
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/07/u...src=twr&abt=0002&abg=0&smid=tw-upshotnyt&_r=0

The Obama coalition is a self-gerrymander. The whole "you are all racist woman hating rapists!" schtick draws huge majorities (who don't vote in midterms) in big cities, college towns and Hawaii and loses everywhere else.
 
Yes, we'll pretend that Gerrymandering had no effect on the elections. Congress approval is slightly below Ebola approval, yet incumbency kicked butts.
Gerrymandering is indeed a problem, but for House and state legislatures only. It has no effect on statewide elections like for Senate and Governors.
Thank you Mr. Civics. The point is, Congress approval is lower than Jacksonville's chances of winning the Super Bowl this year, yet an uber-supermajority are being re-elected.
And the majority in the Senate is what was most at stake in these elections and Democrats performed dismally (no pun intended). I expected them to lose the majority but not this bad. They also lost quite a few governorships, most notably Massachusetts (Martha Coakley deserved to lose as did the state party for nominating her twice), Illinois and Maryland. No gerrymandering there. They did manage to flip Pennsylvania in their favor though, one of the very few positives in this election.
Yeah. Dems got hit hard. Apparently the economy isn't chugging along fast enough after it was crashed in '08.
 
I’m sorry, I was busy watching sexy <fill in the blank> twerk, what were you saying?
That's ok as long as you don't cat call her.
Yeah... that was part of my point. Two Supreme Court Justices.
What about them? Except that they have not been particularly inspired choices, especially Sotomayor.
 
Gerrymandering is indeed a problem, but for House and state legislatures only. It has no effect on statewide elections like for Senate and Governors. And the majority in the Senate is what was most at stake in these elections and Democrats performed dismally (no pun intended). I expected them to lose the majority but not this bad. They also lost quite a few governorships, most notably Massachusetts (Martha Coakley deserved to lose as did the state party for nominating her twice), Illinois and Maryland. No gerrymandering there. They did manage to flip Pennsylvania in their favor though, one of the very few positives in this election.

Repeat: researchers who actually research stuff at research schools have concluded that their research shows gerrymandering effect on congress is small.
No, it isn't. Gerrymandering protects seats, lets the representative go more extreme. So you end up with a statewide group of representatives that don't particularly represent the same state.

The Obama coalition is a self-gerrymander. The whole "you are all racist woman hating rapists!" schtick draws huge majorities (who don't vote in midterms) in big cities, college towns and Hawaii and loses everywhere else.
FYI, it is the Republicans that bring rape into the conversation: see Todd Akins. And enough about race. The right-wing has been railing about race politics before Obama was inaugurated.
 
Thank you Mr. Civics. The point is, Congress approval is lower than Jacksonville's chances of winning the Super Bowl this year, yet an uber-supermajority are being re-elected.
At the danger of sounding like Mr. Civics again, I must point out the obvious. The reason congressional approval is so low yet many incumbents get reelected is that people express their opinion of the Congress as a whole but no voter votes for the Congress as a whole. Instead you vote for one Congressman and maybe a Senator every two years. People want to throw the bums out, but they tend to kind of like their bum most of the time.

Yeah. Dems got hit hard. Apparently the economy isn't chugging along fast enough after it was crashed in '08.
I think running away from Obama was a stupid tactical mistake by the candidates as well. Especially Lundgren-Grimes who would not even answer if she voted for Obama. She was neck-and-neck with the Turtle until then when she started losing ground fast.
 
At the danger of sounding like Mr. Civics again, I must point out the obvious. The reason congressional approval is so low yet many incumbents get reelected is that people express their opinion of the Congress as a whole but no voter votes for the Congress as a whole. Instead you vote for one Congressman and maybe a Senator every two years. People want to throw the bums out, but they tend to kind of like their bum most of the time.

Well, that's because their Congressman is working hard to bring in federal dollars to help the people in their constituency. All the other Congressmen are wasting their hard-earned tax dollars on pork projects. There's not really a valid comparison between the two things.

Yeah. Dems got hit hard. Apparently the economy isn't chugging along fast enough after it was crashed in '08.
I think running away from Obama was a stupid tactical mistake by the candidates as well. Especially Lundgren-Grimes who would not even answer if she voted for Obama. She was neck-and-neck with the Turtle until then when she started losing ground fast.

That did seem to be a poor strategy, especially in a mid-term with low turnout. The GOP was giving their base a reason to come out and vote. The Dem's strategy seemed to be more along the lines of "Hey, if you happen to find yourself near a polling station with some free time, I might not be that bad an option for reasons which I won't get into". That's not much of an incentive for people to bother getting up off the couch.
 
Can someone explain to me why some of the Democrat candidates acted as if Obama was an albatross hanging from their neck? Treating him as a liability and distancing themselves. I am fully aware that the GOP has led a campaign loaded with untruths to convince voters that the economy is worse today than it was at the eve of the GWB's administration ending of its "reign". Propagating the belief that the economy has not shown signs of recovery. Obama having become the party to blame at the drop of a hat. I can see how some GOP loyal voters would digest any type of untruths. But Democrat voters and Democrat candidates?

What is wrong with them? Is it once more a matter of not doing their "homework", homework necessary to effectively expose the untruths propagated by the GOP? I have the impression of Harry Reid and other Democrat leaders that they have been acting like "wet noodles".

It is as if watching rats leaving a ship because someone is yelling out "the ship is sinking" when the ship is not sinking and the weather has actually improved from the previous tempest.
 
Repeat: researchers who actually research stuff at research schools have concluded that their research shows gerrymandering effect on congress is small.
No, it isn't. Gerrymandering protects seats, lets the representative go more extreme. So you end up with a statewide group of representatives that don't particularly represent the same state.

I'm not sure I understand your point. Generally when Democrats squeal about gerrymandering they are squealing that Republicans concentrate all the Democrat votes in a few districts to earn a disproportionate amount of seats.

The research of the researchy researchers I linked suggest this is practice does not have a material effect on the composition of congress -- largely because Democrats self-concentrate.

But if the Gerrymandering practice was as squealed (high concentrations of Democrats in a few districts, moderate advantages for Republicans in many districts) the result would be extreme unaccountable highly partisan Democrats and moderated Republicans.

I guess this would help explain the prominence of such spectacularly unappealing characters as Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reed in the Democratic party, which gives fodder for Republicans to run against them on a national basis in local elections, but I somehow don't think that's where you were headed.

see Todd Akins.

If only they were all Todd Akins.
 
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