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Europeans considering universal basic income and job guarantees

I think where UBI goes wrong is that it's marketed as 'free money for everyone'. We don't really need free money for everyone we need a welfare system and safety net that's effective. Tying ourselves to the concept of 'basic income' just obscures this goal. Maybe the solution does have elements of a basic income, but what's more important is intrinsic effectiveness.

Yup. Basic income has a big downside--it's very hard to undo. That's what I would like to see a guaranteed job approach rather than a basic income approach.
Why would it be hard to undo?
And why would you want to undo something that works great?
But lets assume it does not work great and you decided to undo it. Great, just decrease amount slowly and people will start getting jobs.

Also, I would try to start it slow. Start with a small amount just for food and clothing. That would not cost much and will cover homeless instantly.

I think the idea is that a functioning society is in a delicate state of equilibrium. If you make a major change to that society over a long period of time you disrupt that equilibrium and enter a new one. At that point the entire dynamic of the society is now different and you can't just switch back to the old state at will.

I think what many proponents of any economic idea often misunderstand is how ridiculously complicated running even a city is, let alone a state, province, or country. People with bachelor degrees offer armchair commentary from social media, while some of the best minds in the world are working hard just to keep society at large from crumbling.

To the every-day person an idea like basic income sounds great at face value - why wouldn't it - but to those who are studied in economics there is a recognition that actually implementing it properly is complicated, and potentially dangerous.
 
I think where UBI goes wrong is that it's marketed as 'free money for everyone'. We don't really need free money for everyone we need a welfare system and safety net that's effective. Tying ourselves to the concept of 'basic income' just obscures this goal. Maybe the solution does have elements of a basic income, but what's more important is intrinsic effectiveness.
The problem here though, is that means testing makes it cost more to implement than literally just giving everyone UBI. It also opens the system to abuse by horrible people (see the modern GOP) in attempts to punish people just for using the system. Honestly, it's simpler and easier to just give Jeff Bezos the extra $30k/year or whatever than try to implement a system that excludes people above a certain income.

I think UBI proponents are often vastly overestimating the cost savings of its reduced bureaucracy. Depending on how rigorous he filter is, I don't think it is that big of a percentage of the total amount of benefits that are handed out. Let's say that 10%, a very generous estimate, of welfare benefits goes to the process of figuring out who gets it. By removing the filter, you can only give the same level of benefits to a little over 10% more people. This is not realistic in most UBI models.

Means-tested welfare is always going to be cheaper than UBI. The advantages of UBI are the removal of welfare traps, where people won't take jobs because it would reduce their real income or not increase it enough, and the quality of life gained by not having to deal with the bureaucracy. Downsides are, obviously, the cost to taxpayers and possible disincentive to work at all if you are doing too well resting on your laurels. The latter can be remedied by making the basic income small enough. My personal opinion of a proper level is the poverty limit for two-person household, divided by two. That would be closer to $9k than $30k. Arguably, this would still leave a lot of people with special needs unable to fend for themselves and thus requiring some sort of additional layer of means-tested support.
 
More along the lines of what I was getting at was social impacts. Changing any community from state [A] - we need a job, to state we don't necessarily need a job has many potential unforeseen impacts - sustainability being a major one that comes to mind. I suspect it's not as easy as writing a blank check.

Sure you can radically change your welfare system, but without a certain measure of precision the change could have extreme, unintended impacts. The logic of most people, as per usual, is short-termism (free-money, yay!) - but such a program needs to be sustainable across time as well. And if there is anything history has taught us, it's that we're collectively terrible at executing programs with any precision.

Don't get me wrong - I'm all for more robust welfare, I just don't have faith in people to actually do it properly. Basic Income just seems like a meme that's caught on and gives those in power a bit of an out from thinking more deeply about the problem. It's a start, but in itself it might not be a great idea.


It would definitely put pressure on employers to increase wages, especially at the low end of the market. It would also increase demand just about all across the board. It would cause a temporary bout of inflation until equilibrium is re-established. Can anyone else think of effects?


It might in some cases, but you have to remember the U.S. is a collection of different economies and contexts - a one-size-fits-all approach doesn't necessarily work everywhere. In some places it might be a boon, in other places you might drag the economy down further. That's why the problem needs a lot of attention and nuance.


They asked a pretty solid question. Can you answer it?
 
Presumably the author's (Jonathan Haidt's) moral foundation theory is what was referenced in the post on The.Other.Board.

Liberals tend to judge something's morality by whether it does harm. We also care about fairness and loyalty.
Liberals? Maybe so; there are so few of us left it's hard to get a statistically significant sample.

But when progressives care about loyalty it usually means something different from when conservatives do. Haidt's questionnaires ask questions like "How important to you is it that somebody be loyal to his group?". His group. That's a question that specifically measures conservative loyalty, not progressive loyalty. Conservatives will typically respect somebody for being loyal to his own group, regardless of whether it's the conservatives' group. Progressives will typically respect somebody for being loyal to the progressives' group, regardless of whether it's his own group.

When conservatives make moral judgements, they tend to weight these about equally: Harm, fairness, loyalty, authority, and sanctity.

We all care, to some extent, about all five of these moral bases, but conservatives care about authority and sanctity much more than liberals do.
Haidt's claim is poorly evidenced -- after all, it isn't conservatives who are campaigning against genetically engineered plants. The left and the right regard different things as sacred and authoritative, and Haidt's questionnaires are not well-designed to detect veneration of the left's sacred-cows and deference to the left's authorities.

Haidt would agree that conservatives understand liberals better than liberals understand conservatives (because conservatives share our concerns about harm, fairness, and loyalty, whereas we are often baffled by their claims that it's immoral to disobey some self-styled "authority," or that deviant sex (when you don't do it the way your legislators want you to assume they do it) is bad because unsanctioned).
The left wouldn't be baffled by a claim that it's immoral to disobey an authority if it hadn't brainwashed itself into taking for granted that an authority always looks like one of the authorities the conservatives demand obedience to. Here's an example of the very common leftist concern for obedience to authority. We've all seen it a hundred times, and most of the leftists here probably read it with a subconscious "Yeah, you tell 'em.", and never move on to "Hey, that's an appeal to authority!" :

"When conservatives realize they cannot win democratically, they will not abandon conservatism. They will abandon democracy."​

Over and over, in every thread, the author keeps implicitly criticizing conservatives for failing to submit to the authority of the entity he styles as the legitimate authority. It's a puzzling thing to accuse people of -- after all, we're atheists; we know what it is to be a despised minority. Well, if atheists realized we can't win democratically, would we abandon atheism? If the Christian majority voted to outlaw expressions of skepticism about God, would we accept majority rule? Would we keep our doubts silent and teach our children to believe in their God? Or would we take the bastards in the majority to court and try our damnedest to force our preference for religious toleration on them, and if we lost in court go right on subverting as best we could the Will of the People?

But of course those cases aren't the same at all, because choosing conservatism over democracy would be an entirely different thing from choosing atheism over democracy in one vital respect: atheism is something we believe, whereas conservatism is something they believe. By and large, people don't really value authority for its own sake; people value authority because they've identified candidate authorities whom they expect to agree with them; and an argument from authority is a ton less effort than an argument from reason. So if leftists realized conservatives were invoking conservatives' authorities for exactly the same reason leftists invoke leftists' authorities, they would be less baffled.
 
It might in some cases, but you have to remember the U.S. is a collection of different economies and contexts - a one-size-fits-all approach doesn't necessarily work everywhere. In some places it might be a boon, in other places you might drag the economy down further. That's why the problem needs a lot of attention and nuance.

They asked a pretty solid question. Can you answer it?

Not really - but my guess would be that the effects would be wide and varied. I don't know much about economics so my knowledge is stretching thin, but for example - you have a town with high unemployment - you give the entire town enough money to subsist without working. Great, these people are doing well. However, what if this further strips their community of jobs, and causes these people to lack any skills or work history, it also disincentives them from starting businesses and becoming an employer themselves. Now you have a community that is wholly dependent on government subsidy. That's fine, unless the subsidy goes away - then the community is in even more trouble than they were before, because there are no jobs, and no money.

I really couldn't say with certainty what any variation of such a program would do, my only point being that unintended and unforeseen consequences are something that needs to be thought about.
 
It might in some cases, but you have to remember the U.S. is a collection of different economies and contexts - a one-size-fits-all approach doesn't necessarily work everywhere. In some places it might be a boon, in other places you might drag the economy down further. That's why the problem needs a lot of attention and nuance.

They asked a pretty solid question. Can you answer it?

Not really - but my guess would be that the effects would be wide and varied. I don't know much about economics so my knowledge is stretching thin, but for example - you have a town with high unemployment - you give the entire town enough money to subsist without working. Great, these people are doing well. However, what if this further strips their community of jobs, and causes these people to lack any skills or work history, it also disincentives them from starting businesses and becoming an employer themselves. Now you have a community that is wholly dependent on government subsidy. That's fine, unless the subsidy goes away - then the community is in even more trouble than they were before, because there are no jobs, and no money.

I really couldn't say with certainty what any variation of such a program would do, my only point being that unintended and unforeseen consequences are something that needs to be thought about.

"What if"... We can play that game all day. Provide the numbers and mechanism to support your wild hypothesis.

Because most people WANT to work. A whole town of unemployed people will most certainly not remain so; people self organize, have their own creative and industrial goals.

You fall into the first major problem of the armchair economist and fail to empathize with the people you speak of, merely going back to the "undesirables" rhetoric that led to means testing in the first place and we all know how that turned out: expensive, and broken.

People will create jobs for themselves, open bakeries, start businesses, learn skills, attain educational goals, buy tools, and before you know it, there's a new factory, creamery, invention, fruit farm, tech business, or some other human enterprise. And suddenly that town that couldn't get jobs and couldn't create their own CAN because now there is money and momentum and dynamism in what was once a dying town.

If you want to invoke "unintended and unforseen consequences", first you have to justify it through an experiment, via evidence, and then also justify why you think those consequences MUST be negative.

We can play what if all day, but you have not even started to answer aforementioned good question.
 
Not really - but my guess would be that the effects would be wide and varied. I don't know much about economics so my knowledge is stretching thin, but for example - you have a town with high unemployment - you give the entire town enough money to subsist without working. Great, these people are doing well. However, what if this further strips their community of jobs, and causes these people to lack any skills or work history, it also disincentives them from starting businesses and becoming an employer themselves. Now you have a community that is wholly dependent on government subsidy. That's fine, unless the subsidy goes away - then the community is in even more trouble than they were before, because there are no jobs, and no money.

I really couldn't say with certainty what any variation of such a program would do, my only point being that unintended and unforeseen consequences are something that needs to be thought about.

"What if". We can. Play that game all day. Provide the numbers and mechanism to support your wild hypothesis.

Because most people WANT to work. A whole town of unemployed people will most certainly not remain so; people self organize, have their own creative and industrial goals.

You fall into the first major problem of the armchair economist and fail to empathize with the people you speak of, merely going back to the "undesirables" rhetoric that led to means testing in the first place and we all know how that turned out: expensive, and broken.

People will create jobs for themselves, open bakeries, start businesses, learn skills, attain educational goals, buy tools, and before you know it, there's a new factory, creamery, invention, fruit farm, tech business, or some other human enterprise. And suddenly that town that couldn't get jobs and couldn't create their own CAN because now there is money and momentum and dynamism in what was once a dying town.

If you want to invoke "unintended and unforseen consequences", first you have to justify it through an experiment, via evidence, and then also justify why you think those consequences MUST be negative and are immune to mitigation

We can play what if all day, but you have not even started to answer aforementioned good question.

Right, and that's exactly the problem. I don't know the answer, and until we know the answer a change is risky. I'm a software developer with no background in economics, I don't have a clue about basic income, but neither does anybody else in this thread. But what I do know is that what often starts out as a great idea, can become a very bad one. And that's why caution is needed.

It's not enough just to yell 'give money to everyone' and everything will be fine - that's empty rhetoric - and has no more substance than any other opinion. Which is why I'm suggesting an experiment exactly as you mention, and is what governments are actually doing.
 
It's not enough just to yell 'give money to everyone' and everything will be fine - that's empty rhetoric - and has no more substance than any other opinion. Which is why I'm suggesting an experiment exactly as you mention, and is what governments are actually doing.

I agree. And suspect that it may well turn out that some form of "giving money to everyone" is exactly what is needed to drive people to "open bakeries, start businesses, learn skills, attain educational goals, buy tools" etc., and importantly to SUCCEED in those endeavors because people (even "undesirables") have money to spend supporting them.

(Especially bakeries! :D)
 
It's not enough just to yell 'give money to everyone' and everything will be fine - that's empty rhetoric - and has no more substance than any other opinion. Which is why I'm suggesting an experiment exactly as you mention, and is what governments are actually doing.

I agree. And suspect that it may well turn out that some form of "giving money to everyone" is exactly what is needed to drive people to "open bakeries, start businesses, learn skills, attain educational goals, buy tools" etc., and importantly to SUCCEED in those endeavors because people (even "undesirables") have money to spend supporting them.

(Especially bakeries! :D)

And just to be clear, I'm not suggesting there's anything wrong with basic income, I'm suggesting that implementing such a program should be done with caution, nuance, and empiricism.
 
It's not enough just to yell 'give money to everyone' and everything will be fine - that's empty rhetoric - and has no more substance than any other opinion. Which is why I'm suggesting an experiment exactly as you mention, and is what governments are actually doing.

I agree. And suspect that it may well turn out that some form of "giving money to everyone" is exactly what is needed to drive people to "open bakeries, start businesses, learn skills, attain educational goals, buy tools" etc., and importantly to SUCCEED in those endeavors because people (even "undesirables") have money to spend supporting them.

(Especially bakeries! :D)

And just to be clear, I'm not suggesting there's anything wrong with basic income, I'm suggesting that implementing such a program should be done with caution, nuance, and empiricism.

Perhaps you should first ask whether your questions are already being answered?

I may not be an economist either. I'm a software engineer too; but I can look at examples in the world where this is done and see that the fears you express do not express themselves and can identify at their core a "welfare parasite" stereotype you should probably commit to reexamination.
 
And just to be clear, I'm not suggesting there's anything wrong with basic income, I'm suggesting that implementing such a program should be done with caution, nuance, and empiricism.

Perhaps you should first ask whether your questions are already being answered?

I may not be an economist either. I'm a software engineer too; but I can look at examples in the world where this is done and see that the fears you express do not express themselves and can identify at their core a "welfare parasite" stereotype you should probably commit to reexamination.

My comments don't have anything to do with a welfare parasite stereotype - that's your perception, not mine. I agree that people want to work and be productive. That doesn't make implementing a large-scale program any less complicated or risky, and doesn't answer the question of whether it will work.

But as I suggested from the start the question isn't will it work the question is what will work. We need to find a safety net that is effective, that works, and is sustainable, and tying ourselves to certain concepts without deeper thought or experimentation obscures that goal.

When topics like this come up they're automatically tied to a political ideology - if I'm liberal I automatically support it - if I'm Conservative I don't. What I'm suggesting is that instead of blind support for an idea, we collectively look for the right solution that actually works, rather than just doing what immediately feels and sounds good. At the end of the day a very simple basic income may be exactly what's needed, but there is also a risk of impacts if we don't do it carefully.
 
And just to be clear, I'm not suggesting there's anything wrong with basic income, I'm suggesting that implementing such a program should be done with caution, nuance, and empiricism.

Perhaps you should first ask whether your questions are already being answered?

I may not be an economist either. I'm a software engineer too; but I can look at examples in the world where this is done and see that the fears you express do not express themselves and can identify at their core a "welfare parasite" stereotype you should probably commit to reexamination.

My comments don't have anything to do with a welfare parasite stereotype - that's your perception, not mine. I agree that people want to work and be productive. That doesn't make implementing a large-scale program any less complicated or risky, and doesn't answer the question of whether it will work.

But as I suggested from the start the question isn't will it work the question is what will work. We need to find a safety net that is effective, that works, and is sustainable, and tying ourselves to certain concepts without deeper thought or experimentation obscures that goal.

When topics like this come up they're automatically tied to a political ideology - if I'm liberal I automatically support it - if I'm Conservative I don't. What I'm suggesting is that instead of blind support for an idea, we collectively look for the right solution that actually works, rather than just doing what immediately feels and sounds good. At the end of the day a very simple basic income may be exactly what's needed, but there is also a risk of impacts if we don't do it carefully.

And I keep pointing this out: this program is stupid simple in terms of what. Everyone gets the money, everyone gets it regularly. This is because problems have already been identified in terms of other "what's": means tested welfare fails; "workfare" fails; "low-income UBI" fails because it is nothing but means-tested welfare all over again. This leaves us with "ubi" which is, well, "universal" and "basic" as in "not means tested" and "exactly what it says on the tin" income. The funding needs to be considered, and the amount needs to be considered. That's about the extent of the what, and it's what is being tried now across the world in various settings, in various quantities, is working.
 
I think where UBI goes wrong is that it's marketed as 'free money for everyone'. We don't really need free money for everyone we need a welfare system and safety net that's effective. Tying ourselves to the concept of 'basic income' just obscures this goal. Maybe the solution does have elements of a basic income, but what's more important is intrinsic effectiveness.

Yup. Basic income has a big downside--it's very hard to undo. That's what I would like to see a guaranteed job approach rather than a basic income approach.
Why would it be hard to undo?

You'll end up with a bunch of people with no job skills.

And why would you want to undo something that works great?

You're 100% certain it will work properly forever? What if there is some calamity?

But lets assume it does not work great and you decided to undo it. Great, just decrease amount slowly and people will start getting jobs.

People with no skills, no knowledge of how to work?
 
Why would it be hard to undo?
And why would you want to undo something that works great?
But lets assume it does not work great and you decided to undo it. Great, just decrease amount slowly and people will start getting jobs.

Also, I would try to start it slow. Start with a small amount just for food and clothing. That would not cost much and will cover homeless instantly.

I think the idea is that a functioning society is in a delicate state of equilibrium. If you make a major change to that society over a long period of time you disrupt that equilibrium and enter a new one. At that point the entire dynamic of the society is now different and you can't just switch back to the old state at will.

I think what many proponents of any economic idea often misunderstand is how ridiculously complicated running even a city is, let alone a state, province, or country. People with bachelor degrees offer armchair commentary from social media, while some of the best minds in the world are working hard just to keep society at large from crumbling.

To the every-day person an idea like basic income sounds great at face value - why wouldn't it - but to those who are studied in economics there is a recognition that actually implementing it properly is complicated, and potentially dangerous.

Ah, I see someone gets it!

I used to be a supporter of UBI, but not yet--but then I saw the issue of what it if went wrong and changed my mind.
 
"What if"... We can play that game all day. Provide the numbers and mechanism to support your wild hypothesis.

Because most people WANT to work. A whole town of unemployed people will most certainly not remain so; people self organize, have their own creative and industrial goals.

You fall into the first major problem of the armchair economist and fail to empathize with the people you speak of, merely going back to the "undesirables" rhetoric that led to means testing in the first place and we all know how that turned out: expensive, and broken.

People will create jobs for themselves, open bakeries, start businesses, learn skills, attain educational goals, buy tools, and before you know it, there's a new factory, creamery, invention, fruit farm, tech business, or some other human enterprise. And suddenly that town that couldn't get jobs and couldn't create their own CAN because now there is money and momentum and dynamism in what was once a dying town.

If you want to invoke "unintended and unforseen consequences", first you have to justify it through an experiment, via evidence, and then also justify why you think those consequences MUST be negative.

We can play what if all day, but you have not even started to answer aforementioned good question.

You have it backwards--the side proposing the change is the one that needs to show that there will not be negative outcomes.
 
Right, and that's exactly the problem. I don't know the answer, and until we know the answer a change is risky. I'm a software developer with no background in economics, I don't have a clue about basic income, but neither does anybody else in this thread. But what I do know is that what often starts out as a great idea, can become a very bad one. And that's why caution is needed.

It's not enough just to yell 'give money to everyone' and everything will be fine - that's empty rhetoric - and has no more substance than any other opinion. Which is why I'm suggesting an experiment exactly as you mention, and is what governments are actually doing.

I suspect our being software developers makes us more sensitive to the need for things to be bulletproof. I've met too many programmers who aren't careful enough about making things bulletproof--and their code tends to break down in production.
 
"What if"... We can play that game all day. Provide the numbers and mechanism to support your wild hypothesis.

Because most people WANT to work. A whole town of unemployed people will most certainly not remain so; people self organize, have their own creative and industrial goals.

You fall into the first major problem of the armchair economist and fail to empathize with the people you speak of, merely going back to the "undesirables" rhetoric that led to means testing in the first place and we all know how that turned out: expensive, and broken.

People will create jobs for themselves, open bakeries, start businesses, learn skills, attain educational goals, buy tools, and before you know it, there's a new factory, creamery, invention, fruit farm, tech business, or some other human enterprise. And suddenly that town that couldn't get jobs and couldn't create their own CAN because now there is money and momentum and dynamism in what was once a dying town.

If you want to invoke "unintended and unforseen consequences", first you have to justify it through an experiment, via evidence, and then also justify why you think those consequences MUST be negative.

We can play what if all day, but you have not even started to answer aforementioned good question.

You have it backwards--the side proposing the change is the one that needs to show that there will not be negative outcomes.

You're asking for an impossible burden of proof. You can't prove a negative.

At any rate, we have seen the externalities already. UBI succeeds in ways other social programs do not. If YOU want companies to not have to directly pay people a minimum wage, UBI is the best way to demand as a society that people are treated with dignity, respect, and the freedom to engage in self directed activities.
 
When topics like this come up they're automatically tied to a political ideology - if I'm liberal I automatically support it - if I'm Conservative I don't.
Which is kind of ironic, since it was a Republican plan from the get-go. It has Milton Friedman's fingerprints all over it. (Richard Nixon even tried to introduce it, but he inevitably mangled it up with one politically motivated fiddle after another until none of the conceptual simplicity remained.)
 
Why would it be hard to undo?

You'll end up with a bunch of people with no job skills.
We already have that, automation and shit.
And why would you want to undo something that works great?

You're 100% certain it will work properly forever? What if there is some calamity?
You need to define "work" here. We have a calamity now, and the current system DOES NOT work.
But lets assume it does not work great and you decided to undo it. Great, just decrease amount slowly and people will start getting jobs.

People with no skills, no knowledge of how to work?
You were watching too much SciFi crap.
Today, most of the essential (low end) jobs require no skills.
In these which do (high end), people with skills tend to maintain them regardless of their employment status.

Anyway, I look at the UBI in the context of getting rid of bullshit jobs. Ideally we should end up with a situation where people with no skills (which is most of the people anyway) end up working 1-2 days a week and spend the rest of the time actually GETTING some or all kind of skills, or not if they are medically lazy.
 
"What if"... We can play that game all day. Provide the numbers and mechanism to support your wild hypothesis.

Because most people WANT to work. A whole town of unemployed people will most certainly not remain so; people self organize, have their own creative and industrial goals.

You fall into the first major problem of the armchair economist and fail to empathize with the people you speak of, merely going back to the "undesirables" rhetoric that led to means testing in the first place and we all know how that turned out: expensive, and broken.

People will create jobs for themselves, open bakeries, start businesses, learn skills, attain educational goals, buy tools, and before you know it, there's a new factory, creamery, invention, fruit farm, tech business, or some other human enterprise. And suddenly that town that couldn't get jobs and couldn't create their own CAN because now there is money and momentum and dynamism in what was once a dying town.

If you want to invoke "unintended and unforseen consequences", first you have to justify it through an experiment, via evidence, and then also justify why you think those consequences MUST be negative.

We can play what if all day, but you have not even started to answer aforementioned good question.

You have it backwards--the side proposing the change is the one that needs to show that there will not be negative outcomes.
You (and rousseau), view this change as a jump with no way back. I believe it can be done in small steps with full control at each step. Not that I believe we would need to reverse it.
As a software development monkeys you should understand.
 
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