Everything popular is bad

[rousseau]

To get the first few responses out of the way, by 'everything popular is bad' I don't mean that it's wrong to viscerally enjoy something that is popular. What I mean is that it may be unwise to find yourself in the meaty part of the bell curve in any given thing.

I got thinking about this a few weeks ago when I started reading 'The Intelligent Investor' by Warren Graham. In the book he makes the claim that a bullet-proof maxim in investing, is that 'you should never do what's popular, because the masses are usually wrong'. As I thought more about this I figured that it could be extended to almost any other pursuit.

To generalise the theory a bit more let's look at a normal bell-curve with no parameters on the x or y axes:

If we take any thing that people do, whether it's how they eat, how they shop, how they exercise, how they search for jobs, and we average them out. We'll find that on any given distribution the majority of a population will fall squarely into the camp of 'sort of just doing what everyone else is doing'. Mostly, these people likely do these things because of conformism, because they haven't thought to do them differently, or they just don't care to do them differently. They're right in the middle of the bell curve.. average people.

But what this implies is that there are almost always both dumber and smarter ways of doing things. To the right of the curve are people who are using their brains to be more efficient and more effective. To the left of the curve are people who are well.. not using their brains

So with that I conclude that if 'everyone is doing it' it's probably at least kind of stupid.

 

[beero1000]

 Sturgeon's law and the  Pareto principle.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Shouldn't that be "average" or "dull" or "far from unique", not bad. Because if the middle is bad, then what the heck is happening on the far left end?!

 

[rousseau]

Shouldn't that be "average" or "dull" or "far from unique", not bad. Because if the middle is bad, then what the heck is happening on the far left end?!

Correct, but the title I used is a lot more fun.

 

[Bronzeage]

Damon Runyun said, "The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.” We could call this kind of thing "hipsterism quantified."

The problem with this kind of statistical analysis is that it doesn't stand up to comparison with real life. If "the masses are usually wrong," how is it most people show up on time for work every day?

At Baskin Robbins, chocolate mint is always in the top ten favorite flavors and it's my favorite. I could try the boysenberry truffle creme flavor of the month, but I don't get to Baskin Robbins very often, and when I do, I want chocolate mint. Why? Because it tastes good. If I ate ice cream everyday, I would likely branch out into the more exotic flavors.

There is an experiment which has been replicated many times, with the same results. Take a big glass jar and fill it with jelly beans. Ask a large number of people to guess how many jelly beans are in the jar.

When all the answers are graphed, the mean answer comes out very close to the exact number. The more answers in the data sample, the closer the answer becomes. In a case like this, the "smarter way to do it," would involve understanding the volume of the jar and the volume of a single jellybean, then making the correct calculations. The smartest person in the survey is going to be exactly in the middle of the curve.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

But the curve applies to cinema, as Adam Sandler has one of the highest box office draws of all actors.

 

[rousseau]

Damon Runyun said, "The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.” We could call this kind of thing "hipsterism quantified."

The problem with this kind of statistical analysis is that it doesn't stand up to comparison with real life. If "the masses are usually wrong," how is it most people show up on time for work every day?

At Baskin Robbins, chocolate mint is always in the top ten favorite flavors and it's my favorite. I could try the boysenberry truffle creme flavor of the month, but I don't get to Baskin Robbins very often, and when I do, I want chocolate mint. Why? Because it tastes good. If I ate ice cream everyday, I would likely branch out into the more exotic flavors.

There is an experiment which has been replicated many times, with the same results. Take a big glass jar and fill it with jelly beans. Ask a large number of people to guess how many jelly beans are in the jar.

When all the answers are graphed, the mean answer comes out very close to the exact number. The more answers in the data sample, the closer the answer becomes. In a case like this, the "smarter way to do it," would involve understanding the volume of the jar and the volume of a single jellybean, then making the correct calculations. The smartest person in the survey is going to be exactly in the middle of the curve.

My first few lines covered this:

To get the first few responses out of the way, by 'everything popular is bad' I don't mean that it's wrong to viscerally enjoy something that is popular. What I mean is that it may be unwise to find yourself in the meaty part of the bell curve in any given thing.

75% of your work-force may be punching the clock at 9 and 5 and doing due diligence. But there may also be another 10% who is accounting for cases that these 75% of people didn't consider. Am I going to get laid off? What should I be doing right now to prepare for that? Is there something I can learn which will make me invaluable between 9 to 5, and not just another minion? and so on

Even in your hypothetical ice cream example, you could go your whole life eating the same ice cream you like, and miss out on 5 you like better.

The point isn't that the average is bad, or wrong, or unworkable, but that there is usually something better, more refined, smarter, just out of reach of the average. If you're squarely in the average, you're probably missing that thing.

The main counterpoint to this, in my view, is that being average is more socially acceptable. 'Normality' can and does go a long way.

 

[Philos]

Folks,

Budweiser is a popular beer. Is it bad?

Well no. I have consumed many beers over my half century of drinking and I can say, without fear of contradiction, that Budweiser is the best beer in the known universe. Bud is nectar of the Gods, a halcyon draught, the cream from inside of Donald Trump's jockstrap. Now, talking of popular........

A.

 

[Bronzeage]

My first few lines covered this:

To get the first few responses out of the way, by 'everything popular is bad' I don't mean that it's wrong to viscerally enjoy something that is popular. What I mean is that it may be unwise to find yourself in the meaty part of the bell curve in any given thing.

75% of your work-force may be punching the clock at 9 and 5 and doing due diligence. But there may also be another 10% who is accounting for cases that these 75% of people didn't consider. Am I going to get laid off? What should I be doing right now to prepare for that? Is there something I can learn which will make me invaluable between 9 to 5, and not just another minion? and so on

Even in your hypothetical ice cream example, you could go your whole life eating the same ice cream you like, and miss out on 5 you like better.

The point isn't that the average is bad, or wrong, or unworkable, but that there is usually something better, more refined, smarter, just out of reach of the average. If you're squarely in the average, you're probably missing that thing.

The main counterpoint to this, in my view, is that being average is more socially acceptable. 'Normality' can and does go a long way.

We all want to be special. Bell curves are impressive because they seem to bring rationality to subjective judgment. There is no "reason" to prefer chocolate mint ice cream, as a human being, I share enough molecular structure with other human beings, it's no surprise that a lot of other people prefer it, too. This idea that our lives would be richer(perhaps we could try ice cream with higher butter fat content), by sampling less popular flavors is another subjective judgment. Next, we'll argue about the taste of different beers, one of the few things in life where "bitter" is considered a good thing. Third in line is hot sauce.

There is no such thing as "just out of reach of the average." This is a personification of a mathematical formula. Data points far from the mean, move in that direction.

 

[rousseau]

My first few lines covered this:



75% of your work-force may be punching the clock at 9 and 5 and doing due diligence. But there may also be another 10% who is accounting for cases that these 75% of people didn't consider. Am I going to get laid off? What should I be doing right now to prepare for that? Is there something I can learn which will make me invaluable between 9 to 5, and not just another minion? and so on

Even in your hypothetical ice cream example, you could go your whole life eating the same ice cream you like, and miss out on 5 you like better.

The point isn't that the average is bad, or wrong, or unworkable, but that there is usually something better, more refined, smarter, just out of reach of the average. If you're squarely in the average, you're probably missing that thing.

The main counterpoint to this, in my view, is that being average is more socially acceptable. 'Normality' can and does go a long way.

We all want to be special. Bell curves are impressive because they seem to bring rationality to subjective judgment. There is no "reason" to prefer chocolate mint ice cream, as a human being, I share enough molecular structure with other human beings, it's no surprise that a lot of other people prefer it, too. This idea that our lives would be richer(perhaps we could try ice cream with higher butter fat content), by sampling less popular flavors is another subjective judgment. Next, we'll argue about the taste of different beers, one of the few things in life where "bitter" is considered a good thing. Third in line is hot sauce.

There is no such thing as "just out of reach of the average." This is a personification of a mathematical formula. Data points far from the mean, move in that direction.

The OP is not a judgement about taste, despite the bit of humor in the thread title. It's about a principle of averages.

I get what you're throwing down, but it's not about a sense of superiority as much as it is life strategy and the recognition that if I'm choosing a course of action due to conformity, there is probably either a smarter way to do what I'm doing, or something I love even more outside of my vision.

 

[Bronzeage]

We all want to be special. Bell curves are impressive because they seem to bring rationality to subjective judgment. There is no "reason" to prefer chocolate mint ice cream, as a human being, I share enough molecular structure with other human beings, it's no surprise that a lot of other people prefer it, too. This idea that our lives would be richer(perhaps we could try ice cream with higher butter fat content), by sampling less popular flavors is another subjective judgment. Next, we'll argue about the taste of different beers, one of the few things in life where "bitter" is considered a good thing. Third in line is hot sauce.

There is no such thing as "just out of reach of the average." This is a personification of a mathematical formula. Data points far from the mean, move in that direction.

The OP is not a judgement about taste, despite the bit of humor in the thread title. It's about a principle of averages.

I get what you're throwing down, but it's not about a sense of superiority as much as it is life strategy and the recognition that if I'm choosing a course of action due to conformity, there is probably either a smarter way to do what I'm doing, or something I love even more outside of my vision.

Well, of course. If you knew there was a smarter way to do it, you'd be doing it that way.

 

[bigfield]

Well, of course. If you knew there was a smarter way to do it, you'd be doing it that way.

Sometimes smart people get complacent. How often do you look at things and think "I could be doing this a smarter way"?

 

[rousseau]

Well, of course. If you knew there was a smarter way to do it, you'd be doing it that way.

Sometimes smart people get complacent. How often do you look at things and think "I could be doing this a smarter way"?

Yea, that's the thing.

If this principle can be generalised and makes sense, then it's not a matter of knowing what the better way of doing things is, but knowing that 'if everyone is doing it, there's probably a better way and I can find it'.

To get even more general than that, you could say something like 'the more thought I apply to a problem, the better the outcome will be'.

Basic logic, but logic that produces more effective ways of thinking, and better outcomes, which is why I make a thread.

 

[ZiprHead]

the cream from inside of Donald Trump's jockstrap.

Eewwwww! Cannot unsee...

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

If the average is ideal then species would never go extinct. It is those with adaptations and behaviors that are not average which go on to survive when the environment changes.

 

[ideologyhunter]

(Strictly subjective)
Things that are not popular but are superlatively good: silent films with live accompaniment; small combo bop from the 50s and 60s; atheism and snarky atheist writers; delta blues of the 20s; black licorice
Things that are not popular and suck: Donald J. Trrrrump; Mormon scripture; Killing Hasselfhoff; automated phone 'service'; prostate exams; mosquitoes; Dane Cook
Things that are very popular and are superlatively good: swimming pools; root beer floats; Seinfeld; Panera; dachshunds; Sgt. Pepper; Doctor Pepper; fresh ground pepper
Things that are popular and suck: The Bible; Whitney Houston; backward baseball caps; hiphop (God I'm an old fogey); Old Navy; bottled water; Florida time shares. Goddamn, I'm an old fogey.

 

[Elixir]

To the right of the curve are people who are using their brains to be more efficient and more effective. To the left of the curve are people who are well.. not using their brains

That bell curve wasn't labeled, but I bet your assignment of right=smarter, left=dumber would put you right in the company of "most people".
Being human is a hard habit to break!