Good Gawd, please not 269-269!!!

[Jimmy Higgins]

The trouble with the electoral college, excluding that it is pointless, out of date, and failed to secure a reasonable President in 2016?

The fucking tie. It has never happened before... but it is 2020 and to be fair and honest, I think this year could be the year. And the culprit... you guessed it... Maine.

In order for this to happen, Trump needs a +5 to +6 boost in his numbers, which isn't out of whack from 2016. We still have no idea how accurate the polls are regarding Trump. 2016 was harder due to the Johnson stealing support for Trump much more in the polls than in the voting booths. That isn't here this year. But if polls are still managing to undercut Trump's actual support, that means to me, OH, FL, NC all flop for Trump (I have personally given up on Ohio going for Biden, at best, it'll be a close loss). And, I think PA. The polling in MN, WI, and MI have been better than PA, so even if Trump tightens it up, I don't think he wins those states this time.

Arizona then really mucks things up. There is an astronaut that is running against a one-time General Election loser Senate Appointee. He has been leading by a good margin for a long time. He is the presumptive winner. With Trump's politics on the Wall and the cages, the Hispanic vote there isn't looking pretty and Arizona seems to be one of the few reddish purple states that seems well within Biden's grasp. In fact if Biden wins Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin and the Clinton states, he wins... barely. I meant to add one thing... Biden also needs each EV in Maine. Trump won one in the unpopulated part of the state, where deer outnumber the human population 200 to 1 (I made that up, don't fact check it).

If Biden fails to win back that one 1 EV, and the above occurs, ie Trump taking most of the battlegrounds but NV, CO, NH, VA... and Biden wins Arizona... we are talking 269 to 269.

Hopefully, the polls are projecting numbers better this year, especially in light of no third party proponent stealing poll numbers, but not votes. 269 to 269 would be about as crushing an outcome for the US as could be. Trump winning in a landslide would hurt less than a 269-269 outcome.

 

[ideologyhunter]

Didn't Mitch get the Exalted Electoral Presence Act passed in '17? I'm sure I'm right. In a tie, Jesus Christ casts the deciding vote. He bases it on who has the most money, and money is a handicap. Eye of the needle and all.

 

[Iznomneak]

Hopefully, the polls are projecting numbers better this year, especially in light of no third party proponent stealing poll numbers, but not votes. 269 to 269 would be about as crushing an outcome for the US as could be. Trump winning in a landslide would hurt less than a 269-269 outcome.

In an electoral tie I think that the house would then choose the president and the senate would choose the VP.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contingent_election

 

[Keith&Co.]

In an electoral tie I think that the house would then choose the president and the senate would choose the VP.

Kamala and Don, Junior.
...then bind their left wrists together, hand them each a knife, and leave them in the center of the Rose Garden.

 

[Jayjay]

Hopefully, the polls are projecting numbers better this year, especially in light of no third party proponent stealing poll numbers, but not votes. 269 to 269 would be about as crushing an outcome for the US as could be. Trump winning in a landslide would hurt less than a 269-269 outcome.

In an electoral tie I think that the house would then choose the president and the senate would choose the VP.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contingent_election

If republicans were to win the senate, that could mean Joe Biden being the president while Trump or some other republican stooge standing by as a VP, waiting for Joe to kick the bucket before 2024. An interesting outcome for sure.

The chances of a tie are less than 1% according to 538, so it's hardly something to be worried about though.

 

[Terrell]

269-269 means Trump gets reelected by the House since each state's congressional delegation only gets 1 vote.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Oh goodness, I read an even crazier scenario. Biden wins 270 to 268, BUT, an EV'er passes on voting for Biden. Case goes to SCOTUS. SCOTUS rules "Whatever helps Trump most goes". Election goes to heavily gerrymandered House, Trump wins. OI!

Article on state delegations.

 

[ZiprHead]

Hopefully, the polls are projecting numbers better this year, especially in light of no third party proponent stealing poll numbers, but not votes. 269 to 269 would be about as crushing an outcome for the US as could be. Trump winning in a landslide would hurt less than a 269-269 outcome.

In an electoral tie I think that the house would then choose the president and the senate would choose the VP.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contingent_election

If republicans were to win the senate, that could mean Joe Biden being the president while Trump or some other republican stooge standing by as a VP, waiting for Joe to kick the bucket before 2024. An interesting outcome for sure.

The chances of a tie are less than 1% according to 538, so it's hardly something to be worried about though.

Can't the president fire the vice president.

 

[HelixSpiral]

If republicans were to win the senate, that could mean Joe Biden being the president while Trump or some other republican stooge standing by as a VP, waiting for Joe to kick the bucket before 2024. An interesting outcome for sure.

The chances of a tie are less than 1% according to 538, so it's hardly something to be worried about though.

Can't the president fire the vice president.

No.

 

[Swammerdami]

I think fivethirtyeight's 1% estimate is low. I think it could easily happen if Biden takes Arizona and all the states where his chance is rated at 60% or more except Florida — in other words, exactly as OP lays out with one exception.

The exception is that the single elector in NE-2 (Omaha) is probably easier for Biden to win than the single elector in ME-2. Hillary lost the former by 2.2% but the latter by 10.3%.

With the present House, the GOP would win the vote-off, barely, in the event of a 269-269 tie. But it will be the newly-elected House that votes, so the Democrats may have 26 states. Or, heaven forbid, 25 states for a 25-25 tie. What happens then?

 

[Terrell]

I think fivethirtyeight's 1% estimate is low. I think it could easily happen if Biden takes Arizona and all the states where his chance is rated at 60% or more except Florida — in other words, exactly as OP lays out with one exception.

The exception is that the single elector in NE-2 (Omaha) is probably easier for Biden to win than the single elector in ME-2. Hillary lost the former by 2.2% but the latter by 10.3%.

With the present House, the GOP would win the vote-off, barely, in the event of a 269-269 tie. But it will be the newly-elected House that votes, so the Democrats may have 26 states. Or, heaven forbid, 25 states for a 25-25 tie. What happens then?

If Biden wins Arizona, he's probably already reached 270 beforehand and doesn't need AZ. He needs only get MI, PA, and WI back from Trump, plus hold on to what HRC won to get above 270. He'll probably get one or more of the following FL, OH, IA, or NC before he gets AZ, but there are no guarantees.

 

[Patooka]

If republicans were to win the senate, that could mean Joe Biden being the president while Trump or some other republican stooge standing by as a VP, waiting for Joe to kick the bucket before 2024. An interesting outcome for sure.

The chances of a tie are less than 1% according to 538, so it's hardly something to be worried about though.

Can't the president fire the vice president.

Andrew Jackson wanted to hang his.

 

[Swammerdami]

It is cute of Nebraska and Maine to split their EV's and thereby allow these extra shenanigans. And AFAIK pollsters and punters don't cover these special districts specially. Still, of the two districts in doubt I think Omaha is the most likely to deviate from its 2016 showing. (In a Trump landslide, heaven forbid, all four of Maine's EVs may turn red.)

The election will probably be dominated by GOP cheating. Which states permit the GOP to harass at polls, and which postmasters actively discard or destroy ballots may be more important than what pollsters find. There have been state-by-state breakdowns on predicted GOP cheating: Where does Arizona rank?

I think fivethirtyeight's 1% estimate is low. I think it could easily happen if Biden takes Arizona and all the states where his chance is rated at 60% or more except Florida — in other words, exactly as OP lays out with one exception.

The exception is that the single elector in NE-2 (Omaha) is probably easier for Biden to win than the single elector in ME-2. Hillary lost the former by 2.2% but the latter by 10.3%.

With the present House, the GOP would win the vote-off, barely, in the event of a 269-269 tie. But it will be the newly-elected House that votes, so the Democrats may have 26 states. Or, heaven forbid, 25 states for a 25-25 tie. What happens then?

If Biden wins Arizona, he's probably already reached 270 beforehand and doesn't need AZ. He needs only get MI, PA, and WI back from Trump, plus hold on to what HRC won to get above 270. He'll probably get one or more of the following FL, OH, IA, or NC before he gets AZ, but there are no guarantees.

If the election is close it will be decided by the "tipping" states: There are exactly four states that punters rate recently as between 55% and 63% to vote Biden. (Note that punters have AZ as likelier for Biden than 3 of the 4 states you mention.) Including NE-2 (Omaha) in the mix these states are

?? NE-2 1
55% AZ 11
59% PA 20
62% WI 10
63% FL 29​

Biden needs 23 EVs from this group to get to 270, or 22 EVs to get to a 269-269 tie. There are three ways this can happen:

• Biden wins Florida
• Biden wins Pennsylvania and either Wisconsin or Arizona (or, much less likely, North Carolina or Ohio)
• Biden wins Wisconsin, Arizona, and Omaha for a 269-269 tie.

I guess I exaggerated when I implied the 269-269 chance was more than 1%; but still it is seen as a real possibility. (If each of the five tipping "states" is treated as an independent cointoss, and other states treated as foregone, it's a one-in-32 chance.) The chance that the election will be decided in the House increases when we consider the likelihood of faithless or disputed electors(*).

* - How are electors chosen? Does it vary from state to state? Even if the D electors are hand-picked by DNC, mightn't some "Trojan horses" sneak in?

 

[Derec]

Maybe it will not only be 269-269, but also 25-25 in the House, like in that episode of Veep.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I think fivethirtyeight's 1% estimate is low. I think it could easily happen if Biden takes Arizona and all the states where his chance is rated at 60% or more except Florida — in other words, exactly as OP lays out with one exception.

The exception is that the single elector in NE-2 (Omaha) is probably easier for Biden to win than the single elector in ME-2. Hillary lost the former by 2.2% but the latter by 10.3%.

With the present House, the GOP would win the vote-off, barely, in the event of a 269-269 tie. But it will be the newly-elected House that votes, so the Democrats may have 26 states. Or, heaven forbid, 25 states for a 25-25 tie. What happens then?

If Biden wins Arizona, he's probably already reached 270 beforehand and doesn't need AZ. He needs only get MI, PA, and WI back from Trump, plus hold on to what HRC won to get above 270. He'll probably get one or more of the following FL, OH, IA, or NC before he gets AZ, but there are no guarantees.

I think AZ is more likely than FL, OH, IA, or NC. Biden could be riding Kelly's coattails and the whole wall thing. OH seems to have gone tits up. IA has mostly been shades of red in polling. FL, we may never know who wins that state.

Trump's weakness is he can't afford to lose much. Losing AZ hurts. Hopefully the polls are accurate and fall in line and Biden wipes Trump off the face of the planet. What we need is Florida being called for Biden around 11 PM, making Trump's victory nearly impossible. Florida could be in a position to declare a winner ballot count wise, if there is a leader with big enough of a lead. That just doesn't seem likely.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

* - How are electors chosen? Does it vary from state to state? Even if the D electors are hand-picked by DNC, mightn't some "Trojan horses" sneak in?

Typically the Governor signs off on them. For the Dems, the states they should win have Democrat Governors, except Vermont, Maryland, and Massachusetts.

 

[Terrell]

It is cute of Nebraska and Maine to split their EV's and thereby allow these extra shenanigans. And AFAIK pollsters and punters don't cover these special districts specially. Still, of the two districts in doubt I think Omaha is the most likely to deviate from its 2016 showing. (In a Trump landslide, heaven forbid, all four of Maine's EVs may turn red.)

The election will probably be dominated by GOP cheating. Which states permit the GOP to harass at polls, and which postmasters actively discard or destroy ballots may be more important than what pollsters find. There have been state-by-state breakdowns on predicted GOP cheating: Where does Arizona rank?

I think fivethirtyeight's 1% estimate is low. I think it could easily happen if Biden takes Arizona and all the states where his chance is rated at 60% or more except Florida — in other words, exactly as OP lays out with one exception.

The exception is that the single elector in NE-2 (Omaha) is probably easier for Biden to win than the single elector in ME-2. Hillary lost the former by 2.2% but the latter by 10.3%.

With the present House, the GOP would win the vote-off, barely, in the event of a 269-269 tie. But it will be the newly-elected House that votes, so the Democrats may have 26 states. Or, heaven forbid, 25 states for a 25-25 tie. What happens then?

If Biden wins Arizona, he's probably already reached 270 beforehand and doesn't need AZ. He needs only get MI, PA, and WI back from Trump, plus hold on to what HRC won to get above 270. He'll probably get one or more of the following FL, OH, IA, or NC before he gets AZ, but there are no guarantees.

If the election is close it will be decided by the "tipping" states: There are exactly four states that punters rate recently as between 55% and 63% to vote Biden. (Note that punters have AZ as likelier for Biden than 3 of the 4 states you mention.) Including NE-2 (Omaha) in the mix these states are

?? NE-2 1
55% AZ 11
59% PA 20
62% WI 10
63% FL 29​

Biden needs 23 EVs from this group to get to 270, or 22 EVs to get to a 269-269 tie. There are three ways this can happen:

• Biden wins Florida
• Biden wins Pennsylvania and either Wisconsin or Arizona (or, much less likely, North Carolina or Ohio)
• Biden wins Wisconsin, Arizona, and Omaha for a 269-269 tie.

I guess I exaggerated when I implied the 269-269 chance was more than 1%; but still it is seen as a real possibility. (If each of the five tipping "states" is treated as an independent cointoss, and other states treated as foregone, it's a one-in-32 chance.) The chance that the election will be decided in the House increases when we consider the likelihood of faithless or disputed electors(*).

* - How are electors chosen? Does it vary from state to state? Even if the D electors are hand-picked by DNC, mightn't some "Trojan horses" sneak in?

Except for Maine & Nebraska it's winner take all. Both parties have slates of electors, in each state. When you cast your ballot that's who you're voting for. If the Republicans have the most votes in your state, then the electors that the Republicans want cast their votes for your state. If it's the Democrats, then their slate of electors make the choice.

Most electors are party loyalists, but that doesn't guarantee that some won't go off the reservation. Some states have laws against faithless electors, but I haven't heard of anyone being punished, legally, for being a faithless elector. They'd probably become a pariah in their own party, especially if it cost them the election.

The states get to choose how their electors are elected so what they do today, may not be the case in the future.

I don't know what will happen if it's a 25-25 tie. Maybe we'll have fistfights in the House.

On May 22, 1856 Senator Charles Sumner was attacked by Representative Preston Brooks. The senator was beaten into unconsciousness with a cane. The Congressman was not arrested. Brooks was promptly re-elected.

https://www.senate.gov/artandhistory/history/minute/The_Caning_of_Senator_Charles_Sumner.htm

I think fivethirtyeight's 1% estimate is low. I think it could easily happen if Biden takes Arizona and all the states where his chance is rated at 60% or more except Florida — in other words, exactly as OP lays out with one exception.

The exception is that the single elector in NE-2 (Omaha) is probably easier for Biden to win than the single elector in ME-2. Hillary lost the former by 2.2% but the latter by 10.3%.

With the present House, the GOP would win the vote-off, barely, in the event of a 269-269 tie. But it will be the newly-elected House that votes, so the Democrats may have 26 states. Or, heaven forbid, 25 states for a 25-25 tie. What happens then?

If Biden wins Arizona, he's probably already reached 270 beforehand and doesn't need AZ. He needs only get MI, PA, and WI back from Trump, plus hold on to what HRC won to get above 270. He'll probably get one or more of the following FL, OH, IA, or NC before he gets AZ, but there are no guarantees.

I think AZ is more likely than FL, OH, IA, or NC. Biden could be riding Kelly's coattails and the whole wall thing. OH seems to have gone tits up. IA has mostly been shades of red in polling. FL, we may never know who wins that state.

Trump's weakness is he can't afford to lose much. Losing AZ hurts. Hopefully the polls are accurate and fall in line and Biden wipes Trump off the face of the planet. What we need is Florida being called for Biden around 11 PM, making Trump's victory nearly impossible. Florida could be in a position to declare a winner ballot count wise, if there is a leader with big enough of a lead. That just doesn't seem likely.

I agree. I just think that if Trump loses AZ his campaign likely already has fatal wounds elsewhere. I do hope my home state doesn't become an electoral embarrassment, again, but that may be too much to ask.

 

[lpetrich]

Looking at ME-02,  Maine's 2nd congressional district, it has population 652,869

It has been reliably Democratic since 1992, except for 2016. It voted for Obama both times with a margin of about 10%, but voted for Trump in 2016 with a margin of 10%.

Maine - Deer Friendly - about 300,000 deer, likely mostly in ME-02. There is no evidence that either Biden or Trump is trying to get the deer vote, however.

 

[Swammerdami]

I am reminded of the great (but often unfairly maligned) hero and martyr John Brown, and of his superb biography by David S. Reynolds.

According to Reynolds, by the 1850's it was common for Americans on both sides to view their disputes in terms of religion or morality, closely paralleled to the English Civil War. The North were Puritans, with John Brown frequently compared to Oliver Cromwell. The South proudly saw themselves as Cavaliers (Royalists):

... under the name of Cavaliers, without having respect to the Laws of the Land, or any fear either of God or Man, were ready to commit all manner of Outrage and Violence.

... I don't know what will happen if it's a 25-25 tie. Maybe we'll have fistfights in the House.

On May 22, 1856 Senator Charles Sumner was attacked by Representative Preston Brooks. The senator was beaten into unconsciousness with a cane. The Congressman was not arrested. Brooks was promptly re-elected....

This unprovoked assault which occurred in the Senate chamber itself with Sumner essentially pinned by his own desk, was horrific. That it was generally condemned in the North but generally applauded in the South tells us much about their respective cultures, and views on morality in the years leading up to America's Civil War. I see the exact same schism of morality in today's America, though the North-South alignment is less strict.

It was just two days after Senator Sumner was beaten almost to death, that John Brown responded by leading the band that summarily executed five pro-slavery criminals near Pottawatomie Creek, Kansas.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I am reminded of the great (but often unfairly maligned) hero and martyr John Brown, and of his superb biography by David S. Reynolds.

According to Reynolds, by the 1850's it was common for Americans on both sides to view their disputes in terms of religion or morality, closely paralleled to the English Civil War. The North were Puritans, with John Brown frequently compared to Oliver Cromwell. The South proudly saw themselves as Cavaliers (Royalists):

... under the name of Cavaliers, without having respect to the Laws of the Land, or any fear either of God or Man, were ready to commit all manner of Outrage and Violence.

... I don't know what will happen if it's a 25-25 tie. Maybe we'll have fistfights in the House.

On May 22, 1856 Senator Charles Sumner was attacked by Representative Preston Brooks. The senator was beaten into unconsciousness with a cane. The Congressman was not arrested. Brooks was promptly re-elected....

This unprovoked assault which occurred in the Senate chamber itself with Sumner essentially pinned by his own desk, was horrific. That it was generally condemned in the North but generally applauded in the South tells us much about their respective cultures, and views on morality in the years leading up to America's Civil War. I see the exact same schism of morality in today's America, though the North-South alignment is less strict.

It does need to be remembered that as much as we like to herald the North in folklore about being such higher in moral fiber people, that was really bullshit. The North had plenty of racism, we just didn't allow slavery and there was an abolition movement that stemmed from the North. But there were plenty of flat out racists in the North, more so than average.

Just like today. That neighbor you like talking to and you think you have a good deal in common, slaps that Trump sign down in their front yard and you wonder, "what the fuck is wrong with that asshole?" Times change and people do too... in to the same things everything already was.

Looking at ME-02,  Maine's 2nd congressional district, it has population 652,869

It has been reliably Democratic since 1992, except for 2016. It voted for Obama both times with a margin of about 10%, but voted for Trump in 2016 with a margin of 10%.

Maine - Deer Friendly - about 300,000 deer, likely mostly in ME-02. There is no evidence that either Biden or Trump is trying to get the deer vote, however.

They are a n even less reliable voting block than the 18 to 29'ers, so people don't bother trying to get the deer vote.