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Greedflation?

Until the 1990s, most people shopped in local or regional grocery stores. Now, just four companies – Walmart, Costco, Kroger and Ahold Delhaize – control 65% of the retail market.
I did not even hear of Ahold Delhaize. I looked them up, and they do not seem to own anything in the Atlanta area.
Our major grocery stores are Publix and Kroger. Publix is a southeastern chain and is not owned by a major conglomerate - in fact it is employee-owned. I guess you can call that a "regional grocery store". Of course Walmart and Target sell groceries too. There are also smaller chains such as Aldi (which also owns Trader Joe's), Lidl, H-Mark and Nam Dae Mun, which I think only has stores in the Atlanta area. We are is the south so there are of course a few Piggly Wigglys and other smaller chains here and there.
Then there are truly local stores like Your DeKalb Farmer's Market on Ponce (great selection of produce and meats) and specialty stores like Spotted Trotter for meats or Kathleen's Catch for fish and seafood. We even have traditional farmer's markets where sellers rent booths. There is one close to me every Thursday.
A spate of mega-mergers means that meatpacking plants are now controlled by just a handful of multinationals including Tyson, JBS, Cargill and Smithfield (now owned by the Chinese multinational WH Group).
Yes, the consolidation behind the scenes (like meat processing) is more concerning than the retail sector itself.
What do you think the government can do to lower barriers to entry for new players in this space?

Consumers pay more while profits for mega meat processors are booming: in 2020, the Brazilian firm JBS reported $51bn in revenue – a 32% rise compared with the previous year.
2020 was the Pandemic year. Any year-to-year comparisons involving it are highly sus. How was JBS' revenue in 2019 vs. 2018? What about profits rather than revenue?
Very little corn grown in the US is eaten these days. Instead, more than 99% goes into animal feed, additives like corn syrup used in sugary junk food and, increasingly, ethanol, which produces toxic air pollutants when burned with gasoline.
Certainly, cane sugar sweetened sodas taste better. And I agree that growing corn for fuel ethanol is a bad policy, but this line about "toxic pollutants" is just stupid. Ethanol is cleaner-burning than gasoline itself. Bacteria-fermented ethanol (or, even better, butanol) from waste biomass or direct-air-captured CO2 would be, I think, a good synfuel for applications (such as jet fuel) where electric propulsion is not feasible.
It’s a cruel paradox, according to some campaigners, as subsidies incentivise farmers to grow just a handful of cash crops, a practice that floods the market, depresses prices and keeps them hooked on government aid.
And this is the issue when a presidential campaign runs on coconut memes and brat vibes. Do we even know what Harris/Walz position on various agricultural subsidies is?

Snipped the rest, as this reply was getting long anyway, and I need to go to bed.
 
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So to help make our planet more livable, eat lower on the food chain, with vegetarian fake meats, fake milks, and fake cheeses.
Fake meats and the like are highly processed to make it artificially resemble meat.

A real steak or pork chop are probably healthier than that "impossible" crap. Aka "I can't believe it's leghemoglobin".

We should be eating more plant-based foods, but don't make them pretend to be meat or cheese. Let veggies be veggies.
 
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Common Dreams? Really?

We discussed this all before. Market prices are based on supply and demand.
Yes, we have discussed this all before. But Anagram Man still doesn't get it.
I can't blame people for skipping Econ 101. There's a LOT of math in Econ 101, at least the way it's taught at Berkeley.

But when posters who flunked Econ 101 proudly pretend they know MORE than the PhDs TEACHING Econ 101, I wonder if those posters have intruded from The Onion.

You can find the same article on Bloomberg which Yahoo has made available to the unwashed masses. This is a quote from a top Kroger executive to the FTC so it being in Common Dreams has nothing to do with it.

I can't imagine demand side changes much for perishables like milk and eggs so we can discount that.

This "temporary increase in profit margin" is the crux of it. They see this opportunity. They know their costs are rising and may continue to do so for some time and bake in a healthy price to consumer buffer to insure their costs are well covered. It is the height of naivete to consider these as honest mistakes. Beyond their cost increases, they are looking to their competitors pricing and raising theirs in conjunction with. This favorably skews their profit margin as the people at each company in charge of raising prices on individual items are going to ensure they are not caught after the fact that they did not raise prices enough.
One other point, if this temporary increase in profit margin is an honest mistake (not generated by greed) wouldn't it more likely be found in processed foods where there's more labor, utility (cold storage), and transportation inflation to try and factor in? Milk and eggs are nearly farm to table and should reflect the greatest accuracy between retailer cost and consumer pricing.

In order for market prices to be based on supply and demand, there must be sufficient competition in the market. When there is market power, market prices are not subject to the moderating forces of competition on market price. When there is market power, then there is certainly an element of "greed" in the setting of market prices.
And there was no small profit increases for a short time. It was record profits across the board for a long time.

Derec is using Economics 101 that covers the basics. Greed is a market force that's part of the field of economics too.

The FRB will meet in a few days. Pundits wonder whether the target for overnight money will fall by 0.25% or by 0.50%. Some cynics think the decision may be influenced by politics.

fredgraph.png
 
You can find the same article on Bloomberg which Yahoo has made available to the unwashed masses. This is a quote from a top Kroger executive to the FTC so it being in Common Dreams has nothing to do with it.
I do not dispute the quote, but the spin Jake Johnson of CD put on it. And I doubt Bloomberg ran the same article. Did you mean a different article that mentions the same quote?
I think you meant this article:
Kroger, Albertsons CEOs Tout Deal to Counter Amazon, Walmart
Far less inflammatory.
I can't imagine demand side changes much for perishables like milk and eggs so we can discount that.
Why not? I might want to eat eggs more often if I have more money. Also go for fancier, more expensive eggs.
This "temporary increase in profit margin" is the crux of it. They see this opportunity. They know their costs are rising and may continue to do so for some time and bake in a healthy price to consumer buffer to insure their costs are well covered.
Again, I think you are reversing cause and effect. It is the disequilibrium between supply and demand and resultant market price increase that led to increased profit margin, at least temporarily until costs also increased. The alternative would be to not allow supply and demand to equilibrate by keeping prices artificially low, but that would lead to shortages.
It is the height of naivete to consider these as honest mistakes. Beyond their cost increases, they are looking to their competitors pricing and raising theirs in conjunction with. This favorably skews their profit margin as the people at each company in charge of raising prices on individual items are going to ensure they are not caught after the fact that they did not raise prices enough.
It was not a "honest mistake", it was just a natural response to market conditions.
Note that other market actors also try to maximize what they make. For example, Boeing workers are now striking and demanding 40% more pay, even though they have been making shoddy products lately. Is that also "greed"?
One other point, if this temporary increase in profit margin is an honest mistake (not generated by greed)
I think it is a false dichotomy that it is either a "honest mistake" or else "greed".
wouldn't it more likely be found in processed foods where there's more labor, utility (cold storage), and transportation inflation to try and factor in? Milk and eggs are nearly farm to table and should reflect the greatest accuracy between retailer cost and consumer pricing.
I think the problem with milk and eggs is that they are perishables. More processed foods (incl. those that have milk and eggs as ingredients) usually have significantly longer shelf lives. Perishables are more susceptible to supply fluctuations because you can't buffer them through storage.
Actually this one: Kroger Egg Pricing Turns Merger Trial Into Inflation Fight.

Sure you might want to eat eggs more often but you're likely not. Your likely going to eat the same amount of eggs and drink the same amount of milk from one week to the next.

When Kroger's senior director of pricing comes out and spews about the disequilibrium of pricing being an honest mistake, I'll give your statement some credence. Until then, I'll assume Kroger's senior director of pricing is thinking first and foremost about his job performance in the eyes of his boss and that he is not only covering his butt ensuring he is not behind the eight ball on pricing but seeing an opportunity to put up some good numbers for that job performance evaluation.
I wonder if you have ever worked within a large organization and observed how upper management/leaders respond to situations. Job one is cover your ass.

You seem to discount greed as human nature.
And rank and file Boeing employees is a terrible example. In the aircraft industry as in many there is quality assurance. Absolutely everything should be inspected. Every bit of work. Nothing should get past QA. Especially in the aircraft industry. If workers aren't performing, if QA isn't doing their job, it is likely due to pressure from management. Again, someone more concerned with their performance evaluation is taking on risk. It all works until it doesn't.

I see your point in your final statement but I still think there would be greater price disparity the more processed food becomes. Perhaps there is. Perhaps it's just not scrutinized as closely.
 
One can measure the degree of market concentration using formulas also used for political parties and for populations of organisms:  Effective number of parties and  Diversity index and  Herfindahl–Hirschman index
Interesting. I took some grocery store market share data from this article and applied the Herfindahl-Hirschman to it. I combined Walmart and Sam's Club as the latter is owned by the former.
Got 0.178. So Metro Atlanta grocery store marketplace appears to be pretty diverse.
According to the cited Wiki article, 0.178 is considered by the US Antitrust Division of the US Dept of Justice to indicate moderate concentration.
 
In order for market prices to be based on supply and demand, there must be sufficient competition in the market.
And there is competition in the market. Not that it would not be good that there were more players in the, for example, meat packing sector, but you leftists will twist yourself into pretzels to deny that profligate spending by federal government had any role to play in inflation and rising prices of groceries.
There is a difference between “significant competition “ and “competition “ as anyobe who successfully completed Econ 101 would know.
Derec said:
When there is market power, market prices are not subject to the moderating forces of competition on market price. When there is market power, then there is certainly an element of "greed" in the setting of market prices.
There is always an element of "greed" (for lack of a better word). And there wasn't a sudden dearth of grocery store and food companies in 2021 and 2022 compared to 2019. So something else (or multiple something elses) must have been the driving force.
Why? And a “sudden dearth” of grocery store or food companies would mit be necessary.

I don’t know if there is “greedflation” or not. It is sn empirical question that cannot be answered by poorly applied Econ 101 concepts.

A long time ago when I worked in the Antitrust division, there were a number of regional price-fixing cases at the wholesale level. Based on that, I’d suspect that if there is an “element of greedflation” at that level which is exacerbated by retail markups. But that is a suspicion which does not rule out greedflation at the retail level.
 
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Yes, we have discussed this all before. But Anagram Man still doesn't get it.
Anagram Man?
I can't blame people for skipping Econ 101. There's a LOT of math in Econ 101, at least the way it's taught at Berkeley.
Actually I took ECON2105 back in the day.
But when posters who flunked Econ 101 proudly pretend they know MORE than the PhDs TEACHING Econ 101, I wonder if those posters have intruded from The Onion.
You have nothing to contribute other than ad hominems and insults.
I have not "flunked" ECON101. I did not take that particular class, but I did take ECON2105 (Principles of Macroeconomics) and got an A.
Also, I do not pretend to know more than Econ professors. But few economists will deny the role government spending plays in inflation. Perhaps those few have been stuck with the thankless task of teaching ECON101, I don't know.
The FRB will meet in a few days. Pundits wonder whether the target for overnight money will fall by 0.25% or by 0.50%. Some cynics think the decision may be influenced by politics.
Yes, it is not reasonable to expect that the board members will be completely insulated from the overall political landscape.
 
Bloomberg via Yahoo said:
In a March email to his bosses, Andy Groff, Kroger’s senior director for pricing, acknowledged that the company had raised its prices more than required to adjust for higher costs.
“On milk and eggs, retail inflation has been significantly higher than cost inflation,” Groff wrote.
I don't see anything wrong with that. Prices are not set as "cost+x", but are determined by supply and demand. If market prices rise faster than cost, profit margins increase. If market prices rise slower than cost (or even fall) the profit margins shrink. The alternative is to sell below market price which not only leaves money on the table, but also can lead to shortages.

Let's say you sell widgets for $15 and buy them from the manufacturer for $10. You still have a bunch in your warehouse, but the factory had a fire and there is a shortage on the market, resulting in widgets going for $18. You will sell them for the market price (or maybe $17 to undercut competition and increase market share) and your profit margin will rise.
Alternatively, let's say a competitor comes out with their version of widget and the demand for yours falls. Now the market price is $12 and you just about break even given other costs of your business. The market giveth, and the market taketh away.

Sure you might want to eat eggs more often but you're likely not. Your likely going to eat the same amount of eggs and drink the same amount of milk from one week to the next.
Ok, how about this. You want to eat the same number of eggs and drink the same amount of milk. But there is a shortage (avian flu for eggs for example) and prices rise. You may cut down on eggs and milk. But if you get a stimulus check, or expanded unemployment payment of extra $600 per week from the government, you are more likely to not reduce your consumption. Thus the prices increase more than they would without these government payments.
To pretend all this government spending was not inflationary is childish.
When Kroger's senior director of pricing comes out and spews about the disequilibrium of pricing being an honest mistake, I'll give your statement some credence.
Why do you keep repeating "honest mistake" as a mantra? Kroger did not cause the disequilibrium. Supply chain issues and government spending caused the disequilibrium. Kroger (and other grocery stores) merely allowed equilibrium between supply and demand to reestablish itself at a higher price point rather than allowing this disequilibrium to persist.
Until then, I'll assume Kroger's senior director of pricing is thinking first and foremost about his job performance in the eyes of his boss and that he is not only covering his butt ensuring he is not behind the eight ball on pricing but seeing an opportunity to put up some good numbers for that job performance evaluation.
Obviously Kroger is a for-profit company that will not keep prices lower than market price just for funsies. Management is responsible to the owners, i.e. stockholders. Just like Big Labor bosses are responsible to their membership and seek to maximize their pay and benefits.
I wonder if you have ever worked within a large organization and observed how upper management/leaders respond to situations. Job one is cover your ass.
Sure, but what does that have to do with our discussion here?
You seem to discount greed as human nature.
No, I am not. Quite the contrary. But I acknowledge that it is omnipresent. All market actors, not just businesses, want to maximize the benefit to themselves. When that desire is deemed excessive, rightly or wrongly, it is called "greed". But it is not fundamentally different than the desire of labor or consumers to maximize their benefit. Greed is not something that started in 2021 either. The title of this thread is "greedflation" - it is an attempt to claim that the chief cause of 2021-2023 high inflation was corporate greed and to discount government spending. Note that the people who pushed "greedflation" narrative also were (and are) in favor of increased government spending like the $3.5T B3 (aka Spendapalooza) and therefore have a vested interest in discounting government spending as a contributing factor to high inflation. Note that Kamala Harris will most certainly seek to resurrect B3, likely with an even higher price tag. After all, she is already proposing much higher child tax credits than even Biden did.

And rank and file Boeing employees is a terrible example.
The Boeing machinists have rejected a 25% pay increase offer and are striking demanding 40%. And this when Boeing is not doing well. In fact, Boeing stock price dropped almost 40% since the beginning of the year.
Is this not a form of greed?

I see your point in your final statement but I still think there would be greater price disparity the more processed food becomes. Perhaps there is. Perhaps it's just not scrutinized as closely.
The more processed a food is, the less it should be affected by swings in the supply of original foodstuffs. Eggs are pretty much eggs in a cardboard or styrofoam container. When supply of eggs is disrupted it affects consumer prices with little cushioning. Some processed egg product has more cost inputs, so price of eggs themselves is a lower % of the retail price. It can also be stored longer than fresh eggs, which also dampens fluctuations.
One other thing to consider is the lead-up times. If a lot of hens die or have to be culled, you have to raise more to increase supply of eggs. Which takes time - you can't increase supply overnight.
Some things have longer lead-up times than others. For example, it takes years for Christmas trees to grow to 6' (a popular size for homes) and even longer for taller trees for McMansions, company lobbies or outdoor spaces. Decisions made during the 2008 recession had effects years later.
Why are fewer Christmas trees growing in the US? Blame the Great Recession
 
According to the cited Wiki article, 0.178 is considered by the US Antitrust Division of the US Dept of Justice to indicate moderate concentration.
Yes, it's on the lower end of the 0.15-0.25 "moderate concentration" level. Also from the wiki article:
Wikipedia said:
However, these indices scores are not rigid guidelines that must be followed, while high levels of concentration is concerning, they indices scores provide ways to identify which mergers and acquisitions are potentially noncompetitive.
In a modern economy, "moderate concentration" in the industries with significant economies of scale is to be expected. We are not going to replace supermarket chains with a bunch of independent bodegas and general stores, and neither should we. But larger chains can coexist with independent stores (like YDFM and Spotted Trotter) and smaller chains like Aldi.
 
There is a difference between “significant competition “ and “competition “ as anyobe who successfully completed Econ 101 would know.
And I think there is significant competition in the grocery store marketplace. I already have given a list of different options for groceries in the Atlanta area.
And again, all this palavering over market concentration is used to dismiss government spending as a major factor in the 2021-23 inflation spike. As if we had significantly less market concentration in 2019 or 2024.
I don’t know if there is “greedflation” or not. It is sn empirical question that cannot be answered by poorly applied Econ 101 concepts.
Tell me an example of what you consider "poorly applied Econ 101 concepts"?
 
There is a difference between “significant competition “ and “competition “ as anyobe who successfully completed Econ 101 would know.
And I think there is significant competition in the grocery store marketplace. I already have given a list of different options for groceries in the Atlanta area.
And again, all this palavering over market concentration is used to dismiss government spending as a major factor in the 2021-23 inflation spike. As if we had significantly less market concentration in 2019 or 2024.
Your or my view of the level of competition is immaterial . It is an empirical question requiring market specific data beyond the number of firms.
For example, do the big box or chain stores act as price setters with the independents following suit? Do the big box or chain stores use targeted sale prices to punish independent stores whose prices are out of line. Do the large stores use their bulk buying discounts to generate significantly larger profit margins as opposed to lowering prices.

I don’t know of any serious or reputable economist who proposes a single cause of the recent inflation. So I view your palaver opinion as a straw man.

Derec said:
I don’t know if there is “greedflation” or not. It is sn empirical question that cannot be answered by poorly applied Econ 101 concepts.
Tell me an example of what you consider "poorly applied Econ 101 concepts"?
Assuming markets are necessarily competitive.
 
I don't see anything wrong with that. Prices are not set as "cost+x", but are determined by supply and demand. If market prices rise faster than cost, profit margins increase.
You're basing your arguments on economic theory, not the reality of the situation. You're not addressing WHY the market prices increased in this case. That is the big question and the answer is most definitely partially greed.
 
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I don't know if "profiteering" is covered in the text books. I don't recall it in my community college 101&102, circa 1983. Maybe it comes later. Maybe never. Who writes these books anyways? I know I read in a book about who writes econ text books. I think it might have been in "Supply Shock: Economic Growth at the Crossroads and the Steady State Solution".

I am shocked to see energy companies on there. Utterly fucking shocked. Didn't Derec have a similar argument for their accidental profits?
 
Prices are not set as "cost+x", but are determined by supply and demand.
Well, yes, but actually, no.

Most companies set prices as cost plus a percentage, usually based on a naïve and often wildly inaccurate estimate of cost.

Supply and demand then influences which of their products (and indeed, which companies) thrive and which fail, so the outcome in the long term is fairly similar to what would be expected from a supply and demand perspective.

But the long term can be very long. A manufacturing company with a wide range of products is frequently unaware that some of their lines are subsidising others, and that their overall profitability could be significantly improved if they had a better understanding of costs.

This situation has improved in the last thirty years or so, as affordable computers have become available that can perform highly granular analyses of costs and cost flows, enabling such things as Activity Based Costing. But the manufacturing managers and executives aren't interested in computers (they just want to make stuff), and the IT managers and executives aren't interested in boring accountancy (they want to play with the latest fad - today it's LLMs which they like to call AI), and everyone agrees that the way we have always done things is the best way to do things.

The decisions that determine the 'supply' term in the 'supply and demand' model of pricing, are largely made on a 'cost plus' basis; So the two models are not rivals, so much as they are different levels of abstraction of the same data.
 
Prices are not set as "cost+x", but are determined by supply and demand.
Well, yes, but actually, no.

Most companies set prices as cost plus a percentage, usually based on a naïve and often wildly inaccurate estimate of cost.

Supply and demand then influences which of their products (and indeed, which companies) thrive and which fail, so the outcome in the long term is fairly similar to what would be expected from a supply and demand perspective.

But the long term can be very long. A manufacturing company with a wide range of products is frequently unaware that some of their lines are subsidising others, and that their overall profitability could be significantly improved if they had a better understanding of costs.

This situation has improved in the last thirty years or so, as affordable computers have become available that can perform highly granular analyses of costs and cost flows, enabling such things as Activity Based Costing. But the manufacturing managers and executives aren't interested in computers (they just want to make stuff), and the IT managers and executives aren't interested in boring accountancy (they want to play with the latest fad - today it's LLMs which they like to call AI), and everyone agrees that the way we have always done things is the best way to do things.

The decisions that determine the 'supply' term in the 'supply and demand' model of pricing, are largely made on a 'cost plus' basis; So the two models are not rivals, so much as they are different levels of abstraction of the same data.
I was the Chargemaster at the hospital I worked at.

We had a set cost plus scale for all the supplies. Zero to five dollars X 10, up to and over ten grand X 1.25, with several steps in between. We also raised prices by 5 percent across the board every year at the start of the new fiscal year.

Procedures were charged at 1.25 X APC (Ambulatory Payment Classification) set by CMS.
 
Agree with above posters. Every business has a target for their gross margins.
This is not a secret.

And if one product doesn’t cover the desired margins, another one is inflated to make sure it is achieved for the shareholders.
 
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