Help me remember the criteria for valid prophesy

[AdamWho]

A valid prophecy must meet several criteria:

• It must actually be a prophecy. Not a documentation of events that is misinterpreted as a prophecy after a similar event occurs later.
• It must be written before the events that it predicts.
• The predicted events must actually occur.
• The prediction must be both falsifiable and verifiable.
• It must not be overly vague.
• It must not predict a likely event.
• It must not be self-fulfilling.
• Must be timely (must give a time frame for fulfillment) <- My addition

If that's your test for valid prophesies, we are drowning in them.

Example: "I predict that tomorrow, 29 February 2023, China will have a bigger population than Kansas."
Example: "I predict that tomorrow, 29 February 2023, IBM will not declare bankruptcy."
Example: "I predict that tomorrow, 29 February 2023, it will rain in some parts of the world."
Example: "I predict that tomorrow, 29 February 2023, the Dow Jones Industrial Average will go either up or down."

If those aren't examples of what you mean by valid prophecy, then you need additional criteria.

I take it that you will retract your post since you obviously didn't read the criteria, "It must not predict a likely event".

How much this website would be empty if people bothered to actually read what is written....or write something relevant to the topic.

Retract my post? I don't see that as warranted.

I need to correct, clarify, refine, not retract.

I made a mistake. I missed one of the criteria, as you helpfully point out.

So I need to come up with predictions that satisfy the criterion, "It must not predict a likely event."

"Likely," means the odds are more that 50%, right?

So, if somebody predicted in 2005 that Obama would become president, that would satisfy the criterion, yes?

Yet, I assume, there were dozens or hundreds of people making that prediction. I believe it common for political supporters to overstate their confidence.

Do you consider that a valid prophesy?

How about if somebody bets black on a roulette table, and then, while the wheel is spinning, cries out, "Black, black, it's going to be black!"

That's a valid prophesy?

If we consider your criteria, this exclamation at a roulette table would seem to be a perfect example of a valid prophesy.

Is it really the sort of "prophecy" you're trying to identify?

I doubt it.

So let me offer another example:

Suppose an actual god (Loki, say) tells me that Scott Adams, creator of the Dilbert Comic strip, will be our next president. I make the public pronouncement: "Scott Adams will be the next president."

And suppose further that Loki insults Ganesha, who therefore resurrects Abraham Lincoln and arranges for him to become our next president.
Do you really think my pronouncement wouldn't be a valid prophesy just because it didn't come true?

My point, and I do have one, is that I don't think your criteria point to the sort of things you want them to identify.

I'd like you feedback on this.

TLDR

The thread is over, I got the answer to my question.

 

[Wiploc]

A valid prophecy must meet several criteria:

• It must actually be a prophecy. Not a documentation of events that is misinterpreted as a prophecy after a similar event occurs later.
• It must be written before the events that it predicts.
• The predicted events must actually occur.
• The prediction must be both falsifiable and verifiable.
• It must not be overly vague.
• It must not predict a likely event.
• It must not be self-fulfilling.
• Must be timely (must give a time frame for fulfillment) <- My addition

If that's your test for valid prophesies, we are drowning in them.

Example: "I predict that tomorrow, 29 February 2023, China will have a bigger population than Kansas."
Example: "I predict that tomorrow, 29 February 2023, IBM will not declare bankruptcy."
Example: "I predict that tomorrow, 29 February 2023, it will rain in some parts of the world."
Example: "I predict that tomorrow, 29 February 2023, the Dow Jones Industrial Average will go either up or down."

If those aren't examples of what you mean by valid prophecy, then you need additional criteria.

I take it that you will retract your post since you obviously didn't read the criteria, "It must not predict a likely event".

How much this website would be empty if people bothered to actually read what is written....or write something relevant to the topic.

Retract my post? I don't see that as warranted.

I need to correct, clarify, refine, not retract.

I made a mistake. I missed one of the criteria, as you helpfully point out.

So I need to come up with predictions that satisfy the criterion, "It must not predict a likely event."

"Likely," means the odds are more that 50%, right?

So, if somebody predicted in 2005 that Obama would become president, that would satisfy the criterion, yes?

Yet, I assume, there were dozens or hundreds of people making that prediction. I believe it common for political supporters to overstate their confidence.

Do you consider that a valid prophesy?

How about if somebody bets black on a roulette table, and then, while the wheel is spinning, cries out, "Black, black, it's going to be black!"

That's a valid prophesy?

If we consider your criteria, this exclamation at a roulette table would seem to be a perfect example of a valid prophesy.

Is it really the sort of "prophecy" you're trying to identify?

I doubt it.

So let me offer another example:

Suppose an actual god (Loki, say) tells me that Scott Adams, creator of the Dilbert Comic strip, will be our next president. I make the public pronouncement: "Scott Adams will be the next president."

And suppose further that Loki insults Ganesha, who therefore resurrects Abraham Lincoln and arranges for him to become our next president.
Do you really think my pronouncement wouldn't be a valid prophesy just because it didn't come true?

My point, and I do have one, is that I don't think your criteria point to the sort of things you want them to identify.

I'd like you feedback on this.

TLDR

The thread is over, I got the answer to my question.

If the thread was over, why did you challenge my post?

I'd still like feedback on my post. Would you prefer to do that in a different thread?

 

[AdamWho]

I'd like you feedback on this.

TLDR

The thread is over, I got the answer to my question.

If the thread was over, why did you challenge my post?

I'd still like feedback on my post. Would you prefer to do that in a different thread?

You already understand the claims need evidence proportional to the claim being made. You already understand critical thinking and how to be skeptical of claims.

So it seems like you just want to argue over nothing and I am not interested. I would rather argue on reddit where I can call people idiots and downvote them. I use this forum (22 years now) for specific questions

 

[TomC]

So it seems like you just want to argue over nothing and I am not interested.

But, here you are arguing on the thread.
Tom

 

[Wiploc]

I would rather argue on reddit where I can call people idiots and downvote them.

When I want to insult people, I just put them on my ignore list. I'll do this for you now, and I ask you to do the same for me.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

A valid prophecy must meet several criteria:

• It must actually be a prophecy. Not a documentation of events that is misinterpreted as a prophecy after a similar event occurs later.
• It must be written before the events that it predicts.
• The predicted events must actually occur.
• The prediction must be both falsifiable and verifiable.
• It must not be overly vague.
• It must not predict a likely event.
• It must not be self-fulfilling.
• Must be timely (must give a time frame for fulfillment) <- My addition

One nit-pick... what is the distinction between this and just being lucky? Doesn't prophecy have one additional component to it... alleged foresight? Isn't that the difference between a prophecy and a prediction. They aren't guessing it'll happen (like an NCAA Tourney bracket), they already know it'll happen.

 

[Wiploc]

A valid prophecy must meet several criteria:

• It must actually be a prophecy. Not a documentation of events that is misinterpreted as a prophecy after a similar event occurs later.
• It must be written before the events that it predicts.
• The predicted events must actually occur.
• The prediction must be both falsifiable and verifiable.
• It must not be overly vague.
• It must not predict a likely event.
• It must not be self-fulfilling.
• Must be timely (must give a time frame for fulfillment) <- My addition

One nit-pick... what is the distinction between this and just being lucky? Doesn't prophecy have one additional component to it... alleged foresight? Isn't that the difference between a prophecy and a prediction. They aren't guessing it'll happen (like an NCAA Tourney bracket), they already know it'll happen.

Agreed. The listed criteria only weed out things that don't even look like they could be prophecy.

After you've weeded those out, you still need a way to distinguish between magic and the lucky guess.

 

[Copernicus]

A valid prophecy must meet several criteria:

• It must actually be a prophecy. Not a documentation of events that is misinterpreted as a prophecy after a similar event occurs later.
• It must be written before the events that it predicts.
• The predicted events must actually occur.
• The prediction must be both falsifiable and verifiable.
• It must not be overly vague.
• It must not predict a likely event.
• It must not be self-fulfilling.
• Must be timely (must give a time frame for fulfillment) <- My addition

One nit-pick... what is the distinction between this and just being lucky? Doesn't prophecy have one additional component to it... alleged foresight? Isn't that the difference between a prophecy and a prediction. They aren't guessing it'll happen (like an NCAA Tourney bracket), they already know it'll happen.

Agreed. The listed criteria only weed out things that don't even look like they could be prophecy.

After you've weeded those out, you still need a way to distinguish between magic and the lucky guess.

I think that this is right, and it brings us back to a point criterion listed by Adamwho in the OP but missing from the Wikipedia list:

Must not be able to be brought about by the natural course of things

Adamwho got this criterion from somewhere else, and I think that it might be a botched attempt to express the "magical foresight" criterion that Jimmy Higgins brought up. The Wikipedia criterion "It must not predict a likely event" might also be a botched attempt to get at the same insight into the meaning. Prophecies are more than mere predictions, and predictions made by scientists are certainly not prophecies. The usual rigamarole surrounding a putative prophecy might involve some kind of trance or vivid dream that ends up describing a true future event.

Prophecies can be false, so the other criteria under discussion are presumably intended to establish the difference between false prophecies and "valid" ones. Of course, there is nothing wrong with having a prophecy that vaguely describes an actual future event, so the listed criteria are still open to reasonable debate. The way people actually use the word "prophecy" is the basis for its meaning, and usage is open to empirical investigation.

 

[Unknown Soldier]

I cannot remember who originally mentioned a list of criteria for a valid and fulfilled prophesy.


It went something like...

Specific (cannot be too vague)

Timely (cannot have an open-ended time frame)

Can only be fulfilled by the the claimed mechanism

Must not be able to be brought about by the natural course of things


I know there is a good list of these criteria but if you google 'prophesy' you get MOUNTAINS of garbage.

Thanks in advance

I remember starting a thread like that in another forum. I listed criteria for credible prophecy like:

• The prophecy must be specific listing names, dates, and places relevant to the prophecy.
• The dates relevant to the prophecy should include the date of the prophecy's fulfillment.
• The prophecy should not be self-fulfilling (it should not be what the prophet can do to "fulfill" it).
• The prophecy should use clear language while avoiding metaphors to lessen confusion over its meaning.
• The prophet and the time, place, and circumstances of her/his prophecy should be divulged.
• The prophecy should involve information about the future that is difficult or impossible to come up with from current events.

Needless to say, any Biblical prophecy falls far short of such stringent criteria. The Christian might complain that I'm setting the bar too high! But any omniscient God can handle these criteria easily enough--assuming that he's a real God and not something people have made up. Besides, why would anybody set the bar so low that a false prophet can surmount it with false prophecies? We don't want to risk that, now do we?

 

[Unknown Soldier]

Whose criterion is that? It sounds ridiculous. If a prophecy "cannot be brought about by the normal course of things", what is it? People look to prophecy to understand what does happen, not what cannot happen. If two armies collide, either side could win. The king wants to know what side will, or how he can strategize differently to bring about that outcome.

Yes, a prophecy might involve what normal events can end up doing. But I think what's meant by "the normal course of things" is those things that occur in patterns that make prediction possible from what we know of the past. It's known as "extrapolation." Extrapolation does not require supernatural powers or revelations from an all-knowing God.

 

[Unknown Soldier]

A valid prophecy must meet several criteria:

• It must actually be a prophecy. Not a documentation of events that is misinterpreted as a prophecy after a similar event occurs later.
• It must be written before the events that it predicts.

Here's where a lot of Biblical prophecies run into trouble. How do we know if the supposed prophecy was uttered before its predicted events? If the prophecy was recorded in year 2, and the events it supposedly predicts are recorded, then shouldn't we date the recorded events as happening in the year 1--before the prophecy?

• The predicted events must actually occur.
• The prediction must be both falsifiable and verifiable.

That's why we need to know the time of the predicted events. Without that information, the prophecy will perhaps never be verified.

• It must not be overly vague.
• It must not predict a likely event.

Neither should it "predict" what is inevitable.

• It must not be self-fulfilling.
• Must be timely (must give a time frame for fulfillment) <- My addition

And that time should be specific.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I think that this is right, and it brings us back to a point criterion listed by Adamwho in the OP but missing from the Wikipedia list:

Must not be able to be brought about by the natural course of things

Adamwho got this criterion from somewhere else, and I think that it might be a botched attempt to express the "magical foresight" criterion that Jimmy Higgins brought up. The Wikipedia criterion "It must not predict a likely event" might also be a botched attempt to get at the same insight into the meaning. Prophecies are more than mere predictions, and predictions made by scientists are certainly not prophecies. The usual rigamarole surrounding a putative prophecy might involve some kind of trance or vivid dream that ends up describing a true future event.

Prophecies can be false, so the other criteria under discussion are presumably intended to establish the difference between false prophecies and "valid" ones. Of course, there is nothing wrong with having a prophecy that vaguely describes an actual future event, so the listed criteria are still open to reasonable debate. The way people actually use the word "prophecy" is the basis for its meaning, and usage is open to empirical investigation.

This is definitely an interesting conundrum. "natural course of things". Makes one wonder if it is possible to even create a prophecy (ignoring the whole issue of no one has that type of foresight). The legalese, at least in our day and age of available data, makes it hard to make predictions that can't be considered viable based on available information. All that are left are unusually specific (7.5 earthquake strikes LA on August 17th, 2028) or grandiose (asteroid will obliterate life on Earth in 89,483 days).

Old school prophecy suffers from the issue of the prophecies existing for so long and religious political pressures to align *insert latest thing* within that prophecy. Which effectively invalidates or makes it impossible to verifying the legitimacy of fulfillments of prophecy. Of course, in the Jesus world, one would think that dying, causing an earthquake at said death, and resurrecting into nothingness, to reappear would be enough to convince people he is supernatural... with no one asking, "Yeah but... did he walk on water?"

 

[Politesse]

"natural course of things"

Whatever God has ordained, I assume.

HIS Law HE enforces, the Stars in their Courses
And Sun in its Orbit obediently shine;
The Hills and the Mountains, the Rivers and Fountains,
The Deeps of the Ocean proclaim HIM Divine.
We too should be voicing our Love and Rejoicing;
With glad Adoration a Song let Us raise
Till all Things now living unite in Thanksgiving:
To God in the highest, Hosanna and praise!