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How Dangerous Is U.S. Government Debt? (No one is talking about it)

whichphilosophy

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No mention from any of the candidates how they will tackle this. It seems like they won't

Currently the debt is accumulating at the rate of about US$12,621,600 per hour It went up by about US$7,8 billion during the current administration based on the figure 15 December 2015. It' possible nearing an increase of US$9 billion now.

Instead we see Clinton and Trump saying how each other are unfit to lead the country.

https://www.thebalance.com/the-u-s-debt-and-how-it-got-so-big-3305778

What Is the Debt of the United States?
The U.S. debt is the sum of all outstanding debt owed by the Federal Government. It's greater than $19 trillion and is tracked by the national debt clock.

America's debt is the largest in the world for a single country. It runs neck and neck with that of the European Union, which is an economic union of 28 countries. For more, see Sovereign Debt Rankings.

Nearly two-thirds is the public debt, which is owed to the people, businesses and foreign governments who bought Treasury bills, notes and bonds.

How Did the Debt Get So Large?
First, the debt is an accumulation of Federal budget deficits. Therefore, the best way to look at how the debt got so large is to compare the budget deficits by President. President Obama added the economic stimulus package, the Obama tax cuts and roughly $800 billion a year in military spending.

For more, see National Debt Under Obama.

The national debt grew rapidly even before the 2008 financial crisis. Between 2000-2007, it ballooned from $6-$9 trillion, a 50% increase. The $700 billion bailout expanded it to $10.5 trillion by December 2008. President Bush also added the EGTRRA and JGTRRA tax cuts and the War on Terror.

President Reagan cut taxes, increased defense spending and expanded Medicare. All of these Presidents also suffered from lower tax receipts resulting from recessions. For more, see U.S. Debt by President.

Second, the Federal government couldn't keep running deficits if interest rates skyrocketed, like they did with Greece. Why have interest rates remained low? Purchasers of Treasury bills still reasonably expect that the U.S. will pay them back. For foreign investors like China and Japan, the U.S. is such a large customer it's allowed to run a huge tab so it will keep buying exports.

Countries like China and Japan maintain large holdings of Treasuries to keep their currencies low relative to the dollar. Even though China warns the U.S. to lower its debt, it keeps buying more Treasuries. During the recession, foreign countries increased their holdings of Treasury Bonds as a safe haven, which kept U.S. interest rates low. These holdings went from 13% in 1988 to 31% in 2011.

Many of the foreign holders of U.S.

debt are investing more in their economies. Over time, diminished demand for U.S. Treasuries could increase interest rates, thus slowing the economy. Furthermore, the anticipation of this lower demand puts downward pressure on the dollar. That's because dollars, and dollar-denominated Treasury Securities, may become less desirable, so their value declines. As the dollar declines, foreign holders get paid back in currency that is worth less, which further decreases demand. For more, see What Is the U.S. Debt to China?

Third, the U.S. has been able to borrow from the Social Security Trust Fund. It took in more revenue through payroll taxes leveraged on Baby Boomers than it needed. Ideally, this money should have been invested to be available when the Boomers retire. In reality, the Fund was "loaned" to the government to finance increased deficit spending. This interest-free loan helped keep Treasury Bond interest rates low, allowing more debt financing. However, it's not actually a loan, since it can only be repaid by increased taxes when the Boomers do retire.

The debt ceiling is supposed to limit the debt. In 2015, Congress suspended it until after the 2016 Presidential elections.

Congress realizes it is facing a debt crisis. Over the next 20 years, the Social Security Trust Fund won't have enough to cover the retirement benefits promised to Baby Boomers. That could mean higher taxes, since the high U.S. debt rules out further loans from other countries. Unfortunately, it's most likely that these benefits will be curtailed, either to retirees younger than 70 or to those who are high income and not as dependent on Social Security payments to fund their retirement.



http://www.bbc.com/news/business-24453400


What is a US debt default?
At its most basic level, a default is when a person or an entity cannot repay a debt on time. For instance, when a person can't make a payment on a mortgage or a car loan.
When a country does this, it's known as a sovereign default. This is when the country cannot repay its debt, which typically takes the form of bonds.
So if the US were to default, it would essentially stop paying the money it owed US Treasury bond holders.
A quick refresher: the US government spends more money than it collects in taxes. So to make up the shortfall, it raises funds by asking investors to buy US Treasury bonds. Investors, such as the Chinese government and pension funds, do this because these bonds are seen as a safe place to invest money.
What are the consequences of a US default?

No one really knows exactly what would happen, but the likelihood is that markets around the world would plunge and global interest rates would rise.
This is because if the US government could not repay the money it owed bondholders, the value of the bonds would decrease. And the yield - the return the government pays to an investor - would rise. This is because it would be perceived as a less safe investment.
This would prompt interest rates around the world, which are often tied to those of US Treasuries, to spike.
Furthermore, the impact on the US's creditors could be dire. Japan, for instance, owns about $1.14 trillion of US debt - which is equivalent to 20% of its annual economic output.

In the US, Goldman Sachs estimates that $175bn would immediately be withdrawn from the US economy and it could lead to a very deep recession.
How does the US government pay its bills anyway?
 
Trump did mention it in the first debate IIRC. He mentioned it as a big problem and pointed to the failed wars that Hillary and other neocons supported as a major cause.

I think Trump has intimated he might default or restructure the debt
Either America grows economically or it will default or it will create more money and eventually cause inflation.

I think a big problem is that the ides that have nurtured this debt did not take into account the off shoring of jobs. They assumed the money would stay in the USA
 
No mention from any of the candidates how they will tackle this. It seems like they won't

Currently the debt is accumulating at the rate of about US$12,621,600 per hour It went up by about US$7,8 billion during the current administration based on the figure 15 December 2015. It' possible nearing an increase of US$9 billion now.

Instead we see Clinton and Trump saying how each other are unfit to lead the country.

https://www.thebalance.com/the-u-s-debt-and-how-it-got-so-big-3305778

What Is the Debt of the United States?
The U.S. debt is the sum of all outstanding debt owed by the Federal Government. It's greater than $19 trillion and is tracked by the national debt clock.

America's debt is the largest in the world for a single country. It runs neck and neck with that of the European Union, which is an economic union of 28 countries. For more, see Sovereign Debt Rankings.

Nearly two-thirds is the public debt, which is owed to the people, businesses and foreign governments who bought Treasury bills, notes and bonds.

How Did the Debt Get So Large?
First, the debt is an accumulation of Federal budget deficits. Therefore, the best way to look at how the debt got so large is to compare the budget deficits by President. President Obama added the economic stimulus package, the Obama tax cuts and roughly $800 billion a year in military spending.

For more, see National Debt Under Obama.

The national debt grew rapidly even before the 2008 financial crisis. Between 2000-2007, it ballooned from $6-$9 trillion, a 50% increase. The $700 billion bailout expanded it to $10.5 trillion by December 2008. President Bush also added the EGTRRA and JGTRRA tax cuts and the War on Terror.

President Reagan cut taxes, increased defense spending and expanded Medicare. All of these Presidents also suffered from lower tax receipts resulting from recessions. For more, see U.S. Debt by President.

Second, the Federal government couldn't keep running deficits if interest rates skyrocketed, like they did with Greece. Why have interest rates remained low? Purchasers of Treasury bills still reasonably expect that the U.S. will pay them back. For foreign investors like China and Japan, the U.S. is such a large customer it's allowed to run a huge tab so it will keep buying exports.

Countries like China and Japan maintain large holdings of Treasuries to keep their currencies low relative to the dollar. Even though China warns the U.S. to lower its debt, it keeps buying more Treasuries. During the recession, foreign countries increased their holdings of Treasury Bonds as a safe haven, which kept U.S. interest rates low. These holdings went from 13% in 1988 to 31% in 2011.

Many of the foreign holders of U.S.

debt are investing more in their economies. Over time, diminished demand for U.S. Treasuries could increase interest rates, thus slowing the economy. Furthermore, the anticipation of this lower demand puts downward pressure on the dollar. That's because dollars, and dollar-denominated Treasury Securities, may become less desirable, so their value declines. As the dollar declines, foreign holders get paid back in currency that is worth less, which further decreases demand. For more, see What Is the U.S. Debt to China?

Third, the U.S. has been able to borrow from the Social Security Trust Fund. It took in more revenue through payroll taxes leveraged on Baby Boomers than it needed. Ideally, this money should have been invested to be available when the Boomers retire. In reality, the Fund was "loaned" to the government to finance increased deficit spending. This interest-free loan helped keep Treasury Bond interest rates low, allowing more debt financing. However, it's not actually a loan, since it can only be repaid by increased taxes when the Boomers do retire.

The debt ceiling is supposed to limit the debt. In 2015, Congress suspended it until after the 2016 Presidential elections.

Congress realizes it is facing a debt crisis. Over the next 20 years, the Social Security Trust Fund won't have enough to cover the retirement benefits promised to Baby Boomers. That could mean higher taxes, since the high U.S. debt rules out further loans from other countries. Unfortunately, it's most likely that these benefits will be curtailed, either to retirees younger than 70 or to those who are high income and not as dependent on Social Security payments to fund their retirement.



http://www.bbc.com/news/business-24453400


What is a US debt default?
At its most basic level, a default is when a person or an entity cannot repay a debt on time. For instance, when a person can't make a payment on a mortgage or a car loan.
When a country does this, it's known as a sovereign default. This is when the country cannot repay its debt, which typically takes the form of bonds.
So if the US were to default, it would essentially stop paying the money it owed US Treasury bond holders.
A quick refresher: the US government spends more money than it collects in taxes. So to make up the shortfall, it raises funds by asking investors to buy US Treasury bonds. Investors, such as the Chinese government and pension funds, do this because these bonds are seen as a safe place to invest money.
What are the consequences of a US default?

No one really knows exactly what would happen, but the likelihood is that markets around the world would plunge and global interest rates would rise.
This is because if the US government could not repay the money it owed bondholders, the value of the bonds would decrease. And the yield - the return the government pays to an investor - would rise. This is because it would be perceived as a less safe investment.
This would prompt interest rates around the world, which are often tied to those of US Treasuries, to spike.
Furthermore, the impact on the US's creditors could be dire. Japan, for instance, owns about $1.14 trillion of US debt - which is equivalent to 20% of its annual economic output.

In the US, Goldman Sachs estimates that $175bn would immediately be withdrawn from the US economy and it could lead to a very deep recession.
How does the US government pay its bills anyway?

The only risk of a US government default on debt comes from the insane ideological posturing of the GOP Congress, who play silly buggers by threatening default for political reasons.

The current level of US debt is clearly too low (as evidenced by low inflation, low interest rates and high unemployment/underemployment). US budget deficits are therefore also currently too low.

This is an issue that is even less important than the twenty seventh (or is it twenty eighth) inquiry into Benghazi.
 
In 2003, Bush presented us with his big tax cuts. Bush doubled the national debt. His tax cuts accounted for 30% of our deficits according to the CBO. Under Obama, he managed to cut the tax cuts by 6%. 24% of our deficits were created by the Bush tax cuts that the GOP controlled Congress wanted to make permanent. Bailing out from the 2008 recession cost us trillions. Not to mention the cost of 10% unemployment that caused. The present day GOP is at the root of our deficit problems. Obstructionist, stupid and still ideologically wedded to supply side stupidity.

There is only one way to deal with our deficits. To get rid of the GOP. Only then do we have a chance, not a certainty, but a chance to deal with our deficit and debt problem realistically.
 
The deficit and the ND are too small, not too large.

Unscrupulous or ignorant politicians have been intimidating citizens with deficit horror stories since the 70's.
 
What is most significant is what the debt is buying.

Is it buying a world class infrastructure?

Or is it buying weapons exploded overseas?
 
No mention from any of the candidates how they will tackle this. It seems like they won't

Currently the debt is accumulating at the rate of about US$12,621,600 per hour It went up by about US$7,8 billion during the current administration based on the figure 15 December 2015. It' possible nearing an increase of US$9 billion now.

Instead we see Clinton and Trump saying how each other are unfit to lead the country.

https://www.thebalance.com/the-u-s-debt-and-how-it-got-so-big-3305778

What Is the Debt of the United States?
The U.S. debt is the sum of all outstanding debt owed by the Federal Government. It's greater than $19 trillion and is tracked by the national debt clock.

America's debt is the largest in the world for a single country. It runs neck and neck with that of the European Union, which is an economic union of 28 countries. For more, see Sovereign Debt Rankings.

Nearly two-thirds is the public debt, which is owed to the people, businesses and foreign governments who bought Treasury bills, notes and bonds.

How Did the Debt Get So Large?
First, the debt is an accumulation of Federal budget deficits. Therefore, the best way to look at how the debt got so large is to compare the budget deficits by President. President Obama added the economic stimulus package, the Obama tax cuts and roughly $800 billion a year in military spending.

For more, see National Debt Under Obama.

The national debt grew rapidly even before the 2008 financial crisis. Between 2000-2007, it ballooned from $6-$9 trillion, a 50% increase. The $700 billion bailout expanded it to $10.5 trillion by December 2008. President Bush also added the EGTRRA and JGTRRA tax cuts and the War on Terror.

President Reagan cut taxes, increased defense spending and expanded Medicare. All of these Presidents also suffered from lower tax receipts resulting from recessions. For more, see U.S. Debt by President.

Second, the Federal government couldn't keep running deficits if interest rates skyrocketed, like they did with Greece. Why have interest rates remained low? Purchasers of Treasury bills still reasonably expect that the U.S. will pay them back. For foreign investors like China and Japan, the U.S. is such a large customer it's allowed to run a huge tab so it will keep buying exports.

Countries like China and Japan maintain large holdings of Treasuries to keep their currencies low relative to the dollar. Even though China warns the U.S. to lower its debt, it keeps buying more Treasuries. During the recession, foreign countries increased their holdings of Treasury Bonds as a safe haven, which kept U.S. interest rates low. These holdings went from 13% in 1988 to 31% in 2011.

Many of the foreign holders of U.S.

debt are investing more in their economies. Over time, diminished demand for U.S. Treasuries could increase interest rates, thus slowing the economy. Furthermore, the anticipation of this lower demand puts downward pressure on the dollar. That's because dollars, and dollar-denominated Treasury Securities, may become less desirable, so their value declines. As the dollar declines, foreign holders get paid back in currency that is worth less, which further decreases demand. For more, see What Is the U.S. Debt to China?

Third, the U.S. has been able to borrow from the Social Security Trust Fund. It took in more revenue through payroll taxes leveraged on Baby Boomers than it needed. Ideally, this money should have been invested to be available when the Boomers retire. In reality, the Fund was "loaned" to the government to finance increased deficit spending. This interest-free loan helped keep Treasury Bond interest rates low, allowing more debt financing. However, it's not actually a loan, since it can only be repaid by increased taxes when the Boomers do retire.

The debt ceiling is supposed to limit the debt. In 2015, Congress suspended it until after the 2016 Presidential elections.

Congress realizes it is facing a debt crisis. Over the next 20 years, the Social Security Trust Fund won't have enough to cover the retirement benefits promised to Baby Boomers. That could mean higher taxes, since the high U.S. debt rules out further loans from other countries. Unfortunately, it's most likely that these benefits will be curtailed, either to retirees younger than 70 or to those who are high income and not as dependent on Social Security payments to fund their retirement.



http://www.bbc.com/news/business-24453400


What is a US debt default?
At its most basic level, a default is when a person or an entity cannot repay a debt on time. For instance, when a person can't make a payment on a mortgage or a car loan.
When a country does this, it's known as a sovereign default. This is when the country cannot repay its debt, which typically takes the form of bonds.
So if the US were to default, it would essentially stop paying the money it owed US Treasury bond holders.
A quick refresher: the US government spends more money than it collects in taxes. So to make up the shortfall, it raises funds by asking investors to buy US Treasury bonds. Investors, such as the Chinese government and pension funds, do this because these bonds are seen as a safe place to invest money.
What are the consequences of a US default?

No one really knows exactly what would happen, but the likelihood is that markets around the world would plunge and global interest rates would rise.
This is because if the US government could not repay the money it owed bondholders, the value of the bonds would decrease. And the yield - the return the government pays to an investor - would rise. This is because it would be perceived as a less safe investment.
This would prompt interest rates around the world, which are often tied to those of US Treasuries, to spike.
Furthermore, the impact on the US's creditors could be dire. Japan, for instance, owns about $1.14 trillion of US debt - which is equivalent to 20% of its annual economic output.

In the US, Goldman Sachs estimates that $175bn would immediately be withdrawn from the US economy and it could lead to a very deep recession.
How does the US government pay its bills anyway?

There is no problem with the national debt. There is no way that Treasury Bills that finance the budget deficit would go unsold or that the interest rate on them would be allowed to soar, for the same reason. The Federal Reserve Bank is required to buy whatever amount of the Treasury Bills that are required to maintain their target interest rate. If private parties don't buy the offered Treasury Bills the Fed has to buy them. This has never happened, by the way, that T-Bills have not been sold, although the Fed does buys or sells bonds frequently, in order to maintain their target interest rates. This buying and selling of bonds is called "Open Market Operations," "OMO."

The major problem with debt is with the total amount of personal and business debt, i.e. private debt, in the economy. High private debt, as we saw in the Great Recession, destabilizes the economy. When people and businesses owe a lot of money they reduce their spending faster and they reduce it more when we have a recession. This means that we go into a deeper recession that lasts longer than it would if the total amount of personal debt in the country was lower.

You have heard of warmongers, people who exaggerate the threats that other countries present to achieve some end, for example, to start a war or to increase defense spending. We have a lot of "debtmongers" who exaggerate the threat that the national debt presents to achieve some other end. Usually to convince people that we have to cut social spending in order to reduce the deficit. The OP is an example of debt mongering.

The debt mongers have an easy time of it because they only have to convince people that the national debt is like the household debt that people are all too familiar with. A debt that eventually has to be paid. But it isn't the same, because the national debt is also the majority of the personal and business savings in the country. We can't pay off the national debt without destroying the majority of the personal savings in the country.

If you are going to declare the national debt to be an evil, you have also to be prepared to declare the majority of the personal and business savings in the country to be an evil. But it isn't.

I have tried to explain this in many of these threads. No one seems to be interested. Admittedly the explanation can't be fit into the confines of a tweet which seems to be the limit of the attention span of most of the people in the country right now.
 
Last edited:
I think there is no way for actually paying the debt this large. And I think Krugman agrees with me.
 
Trump did mention it in the first debate IIRC. He mentioned it as a big problem and pointed to the failed wars that Hillary and other neocons supported as a major cause.

I think Trump has intimated he might default or restructure the debt
Either America grows economically or it will default or it will create more money and eventually cause inflation.

I think a big problem is that the ides that have nurtured this debt did not take into account the off shoring of jobs. They assumed the money would stay in the USA

Sorry for derail, but I'm going to call out Trump bullshit whenever I see it: Trump supported US Iraq invasion. To default or restructure the debt would result in a dramatic increase in interest rates, which would be a disaster.
 
Some who call themselves experts are calling for a voluntary default.

What if we could avoid the nightmare that would be a debt-ceiling breech, which would force us to choose between ruining the Treasury's reputation as a risk-free investment but provide checks to seniors on Social Security, or leave grandma in the lurch but pay our creditors in Tokyo and Beijing?

The more I think about the extent of the problems facing this country, the more apparent it is that a hard reset is needed. I'm talking about a debt default, but not in the traditional sense. And the Federal Reserve would play a key role.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-america-needs-a-debt-default-2013-10-11

In this column both private and public debts, and state and national govts are conflated.

The one theme that always emerges are cuts in social spending, especially Medicare and Social Security.
 
To default or restructure the debt would result in a dramatic increase in interest rates, which would be a disaster.
No need for disaster, they can simply print $20tril.

That's right, they can. Might not be a good idea, but there's no constraint.

The problem is more will people be productive. If enough goods and services are produced, the economy can absorb the money.

Economies don't grow unless someone spends more than their income.
 
No need for disaster, they can simply print $20tril.

That's right, they can. Might not be a good idea, but there's no constraint.

The problem is more will people be productive. If enough goods and services are produced, the economy can absorb the money.

Economies don't grow unless someone spends more than their income.
It's a sad state of affairs when the only way to have "growth" is through debt. Maybe we don't need this "growth"?
 
That's right, they can. Might not be a good idea, but there's no constraint.

The problem is more will people be productive. If enough goods and services are produced, the economy can absorb the money.

Economies don't grow unless someone spends more than their income.

It's a sad state of affairs when the only way to have "growth" is through debt. Maybe we don't need this "growth"?

It's not the only way; equity can also be used.

Business cycles fluctuate but debt grows regardless. Eventually, debt has to overtake productive capacity.
 
No mention from any of the candidates how they will tackle this. It seems like they won't

Currently the debt is accumulating at the rate of about US$12,621,600 per hour It went up by about US$7,8 billion during the current administration based on the figure 15 December 2015. It' possible nearing an increase of US$9 billion now.

Instead we see Clinton and Trump saying how each other are unfit to lead the country.

https://www.thebalance.com/the-u-s-debt-and-how-it-got-so-big-3305778

What Is the Debt of the United States?
The U.S. debt is the sum of all outstanding debt owed by the Federal Government. It's greater than $19 trillion and is tracked by the national debt clock.

America's debt is the largest in the world for a single country. It runs neck and neck with that of the European Union, which is an economic union of 28 countries. For more, see Sovereign Debt Rankings.

Nearly two-thirds is the public debt, which is owed to the people, businesses and foreign governments who bought Treasury bills, notes and bonds.

How Did the Debt Get So Large?
First, the debt is an accumulation of Federal budget deficits. Therefore, the best way to look at how the debt got so large is to compare the budget deficits by President. President Obama added the economic stimulus package, the Obama tax cuts and roughly $800 billion a year in military spending.

For more, see National Debt Under Obama.

The national debt grew rapidly even before the 2008 financial crisis. Between 2000-2007, it ballooned from $6-$9 trillion, a 50% increase. The $700 billion bailout expanded it to $10.5 trillion by December 2008. President Bush also added the EGTRRA and JGTRRA tax cuts and the War on Terror.

President Reagan cut taxes, increased defense spending and expanded Medicare. All of these Presidents also suffered from lower tax receipts resulting from recessions. For more, see U.S. Debt by President.

Second, the Federal government couldn't keep running deficits if interest rates skyrocketed, like they did with Greece. Why have interest rates remained low? Purchasers of Treasury bills still reasonably expect that the U.S. will pay them back. For foreign investors like China and Japan, the U.S. is such a large customer it's allowed to run a huge tab so it will keep buying exports.

Countries like China and Japan maintain large holdings of Treasuries to keep their currencies low relative to the dollar. Even though China warns the U.S. to lower its debt, it keeps buying more Treasuries. During the recession, foreign countries increased their holdings of Treasury Bonds as a safe haven, which kept U.S. interest rates low. These holdings went from 13% in 1988 to 31% in 2011.

Many of the foreign holders of U.S.

debt are investing more in their economies. Over time, diminished demand for U.S. Treasuries could increase interest rates, thus slowing the economy. Furthermore, the anticipation of this lower demand puts downward pressure on the dollar. That's because dollars, and dollar-denominated Treasury Securities, may become less desirable, so their value declines. As the dollar declines, foreign holders get paid back in currency that is worth less, which further decreases demand. For more, see What Is the U.S. Debt to China?

Third, the U.S. has been able to borrow from the Social Security Trust Fund. It took in more revenue through payroll taxes leveraged on Baby Boomers than it needed. Ideally, this money should have been invested to be available when the Boomers retire. In reality, the Fund was "loaned" to the government to finance increased deficit spending. This interest-free loan helped keep Treasury Bond interest rates low, allowing more debt financing. However, it's not actually a loan, since it can only be repaid by increased taxes when the Boomers do retire.

The debt ceiling is supposed to limit the debt. In 2015, Congress suspended it until after the 2016 Presidential elections.

Congress realizes it is facing a debt crisis. Over the next 20 years, the Social Security Trust Fund won't have enough to cover the retirement benefits promised to Baby Boomers. That could mean higher taxes, since the high U.S. debt rules out further loans from other countries. Unfortunately, it's most likely that these benefits will be curtailed, either to retirees younger than 70 or to those who are high income and not as dependent on Social Security payments to fund their retirement.



http://www.bbc.com/news/business-24453400


What is a US debt default?
At its most basic level, a default is when a person or an entity cannot repay a debt on time. For instance, when a person can't make a payment on a mortgage or a car loan.
When a country does this, it's known as a sovereign default. This is when the country cannot repay its debt, which typically takes the form of bonds.
So if the US were to default, it would essentially stop paying the money it owed US Treasury bond holders.
A quick refresher: the US government spends more money than it collects in taxes. So to make up the shortfall, it raises funds by asking investors to buy US Treasury bonds. Investors, such as the Chinese government and pension funds, do this because these bonds are seen as a safe place to invest money.
What are the consequences of a US default?

No one really knows exactly what would happen, but the likelihood is that markets around the world would plunge and global interest rates would rise.
This is because if the US government could not repay the money it owed bondholders, the value of the bonds would decrease. And the yield - the return the government pays to an investor - would rise. This is because it would be perceived as a less safe investment.
This would prompt interest rates around the world, which are often tied to those of US Treasuries, to spike.
Furthermore, the impact on the US's creditors could be dire. Japan, for instance, owns about $1.14 trillion of US debt - which is equivalent to 20% of its annual economic output.

In the US, Goldman Sachs estimates that $175bn would immediately be withdrawn from the US economy and it could lead to a very deep recession.
How does the US government pay its bills anyway?

There is no problem with the national debt. There is no way that Treasury Bills that finance the budget deficit would go unsold or that the interest rate on them would be allowed to soar, for the same reason. The Federal Reserve Bank is required to buy whatever amount of the Treasury Bills that are required to maintain their target interest rate. If private parties don't buy the offered Treasury Bills the Fed has to buy them. This has never happened, by the way, that T-Bills have not been sold, although the Fed does buys or sells bonds frequently, in order to maintain their target interest rates. This buying and selling of bonds is called "Open Market Operations," "OMO."

The major problem with debt is with the total amount of personal and business debt, i.e. private debt, in the economy. High private debt, as we saw in the Great Recession, destabilizes the economy. When people and businesses owe a lot of money they reduce their spending faster and they reduce it more when we have a recession. This means that we go into a deeper recession that lasts longer than it would if the total amount of personal debt in the country was lower.

You have heard of warmongers, people who exaggerate the threats that other countries present to achieve some end, for example, to start a war or to increase defense spending. We have a lot of "debtmongers" who exaggerate the threat that the national debt presents to achieve some other end. Usually to convince people that we have to cut social spending in order to reduce the deficit. The OP is an example of debt mongering.

The debt mongers have an easy time of it because they only have to convince people that the national debt is like the household debt that people are all too familiar with. A debt that eventually has to be paid. But it isn't the same, because the national debt is also the majority of the personal and business savings in the country. We can't pay off the national debt without destroying the majority of the personal savings in the country.

If you are going to declare the national debt to be an evil, you have also to be prepared to declare the majority of the personal and business savings in the country to be an evil. But it isn't.

I have tried to explain this in many of these threads. No one seems to be interested. Admittedly the explanation can't be fit into the confines of a tweet which seems to be the limit of the attention span of most of the people in the country right now.

If the US reaches a point where it defaults then the value of its bonds will decease as it cannot repay these. They would become regarded as an unsafe investment. Countries that own substantial parts of the US debt would be affected.


In the US Goldman Sachs as quoted estimates that $175bn would immediately be withdrawn from the US economy and it could lead to a very deep recession.
How does the US government pay its bills anyway?

There is a difference between alarmists and those who are cautionary. Successive US governments cannot borrow out of every problem for an indefinite time. The question is when unless this is addressed.
 
If the US reaches a point where it defaults then the value of its bonds will decease as it cannot repay these. They would become regarded as an unsafe investment. Countries that own substantial parts of the US debt would be affected.


In the US Goldman Sachs as quoted estimates that $175bn would immediately be withdrawn from the US economy and it could lead to a very deep recession.
How does the US government pay its bills anyway?

There is a difference between alarmists and those who are cautionary. Successive US governments cannot borrow out of every problem for an indefinite time. The question is when unless this is addressed.

As has been explained to you, they don't have to borrow at all. That they do is a choice, not a necessity. Even if no private investors bought the bonds, Fed banks would.

Anyway, demand for govt bonds is very high. Even Japan issuing 30 year bonds at negative rates had a 4-1 bid ratio, meaning there were four times as many people wanting to buy than could be supplied.

Don't go to Goldman Sachs for macro wisdom. You'll get a sales pitch.
 
If the US reaches a point where it defaults then the value of its bonds will decease as it cannot repay these. They would become regarded as an unsafe investment. Countries that own substantial parts of the US debt would be affected.


In the US Goldman Sachs as quoted estimates that $175bn would immediately be withdrawn from the US economy and it could lead to a very deep recession.
How does the US government pay its bills anyway?

There is a difference between alarmists and those who are cautionary. Successive US governments cannot borrow out of every problem for an indefinite time. The question is when unless this is addressed.

As has been explained to you, they don't have to borrow at all. That they do is a choice, not a necessity. Even if no private investors bought the bonds, Fed banks would.

Anyway, demand for govt bonds is very high. Even Japan issuing 30 year bonds at negative rates had a 4-1 bid ratio, meaning there were four times as many people wanting to buy than could be supplied.

Don't go to Goldman Sachs for macro wisdom. You'll get a sales pitch.

This was quoting them because there are differing viewpoints as no one is predicting the exact result of a default, though a severe recession could occur as a chain reaction.
 
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