How likely is it that the world will successfully manage to stave off (the worst of) global warming?

[Loren Pechtel]

We very well might be looking at one aspect of the great filter.

 

[steve_bank]

History tells us that while science has largely replaced superstition, human nature remains the same. Greed, power and the rest.

Overcoming human inertia and entropy tales consistent organized cooperative effort which the post WWII years show is near imposable. Russia and China are seeking empire and dominance and will not work with the USA.

Historically a prelude to war.

The South China Sea and the Chinese assertion it is their territory is a flashpoint. There have been confrontations between China and the PI over China's seizing what was international fishing waters.

You can plot the expanding circle of Chinese fishing fleets as they expanded out from China as fish became depleteed.

All human organization's are always the same.

The main question when the American experiment kicked off post revolution was whether or not a lathe national group can rule themselves.. It is an open question. Look at the French meltdown. It will not take much to bring the west into chaos.

 

[Shake]

I think that:

1. things will get worse before large-scale action is taken
2. there are still far too many deniers and folks who are just under-informed to really push this
3. every little bit helps, so anything any one of us can do to help will at least make up for someone else who isn't changing their ways
4. spreading knowledge of how we can all help is powerful

Hopefully now that more severe effects of global warming are starting to be felt even in the developed, northern part of the world (heatwaves, re-occurring hurricanes in Florida, forest fires in California, for example), public opinion will shift and make this a priority.

While I think it is valuable that individuals make efforts in their private lives to help the fight against climate change (eating less red meat and diary products, for example), ultimately the real effort must be made with industry. They are th massive polluters. Hopefully emerging and existing clean technologies will help in this.

Education of the public is necessary to put pressure on industry to act, though. Same goes for politicians: we need to step up the pressure on them to help things along. Some entrepreneur(s) out there are going to make a big breakthrough which will create jobs and make them wealthy all in the process of helping to fix the errors of our ways.

 

[Underseer]

Not very, and the longer we wait to do something about it, the more expensive it will be to fix.

 

[Underseer]

History tells us that while science has largely replaced superstition, human nature remains the same. Greed, power and the rest.

Overcoming human inertia and entropy tales consistent organized cooperative effort which the post WWII years show is near imposable. Russia and China are seeking empire and dominance and will not work with the USA.

Historically a prelude to war.

The South China Sea and the Chinese assertion it is their territory is a flashpoint. There have been confrontations between China and the PI over China's seizing what was international fishing waters.

You can plot the expanding circle of Chinese fishing fleets as they expanded out from China as fish became depleteed.

All human organization's are always the same.

The main question when the American experiment kicked off post revolution was whether or not a lathe national group can rule themselves.. It is an open question. Look at the French meltdown. It will not take much to bring the west into chaos.

You make it sound like this anti-science sentiment "just happened" as a natural result of sloppy thinking in humans, and not that millions of people were indoctrinated because a small number of corporations gained temporary profits from doing so.

This didn't just happen. This was the result of decades of effort by oil companies and coal companies because they put their temporary profits above the well-being of humanity as a whole. The temporary profits they got out of this will be dwarfed by the costs born by the rest of the economy in the future.

 

[steve_bank]

History tells us that while science has largely replaced superstition, human nature remains the same. Greed, power and the rest.

Overcoming human inertia and entropy tales consistent organized cooperative effort which the post WWII years show is near imposable. Russia and China are seeking empire and dominance and will not work with the USA.

Historically a prelude to war.

The South China Sea and the Chinese assertion it is their territory is a flashpoint. There have been confrontations between China and the PI over China's seizing what was international fishing waters.

You can plot the expanding circle of Chinese fishing fleets as they expanded out from China as fish became depleteed.

All human organization's are always the same.

The main question when the American experiment kicked off post revolution was whether or not a lathe national group can rule themselves.. It is an open question. Look at the French meltdown. It will not take much to bring the west into chaos.

You make it sound like this anti-science sentiment "just happened" as a natural result of sloppy thinking in humans, and not that millions of people were indoctrinated because a small number of corporations gained temporary profits from doing so.

This didn't just happen. This was the result of decades of effort by oil companies and coal companies because they put their temporary profits above the well-being of humanity as a whole. The temporary profits they got out of this will be dwarfed by the costs born by the rest of the economy in the future.

My point is one keeps hoping that humans are suddenly going to become rational on a large cooperative scale. We do not seem to be wired that way.

Humans are a mix of emotion, reason, logic, and fallibility.

The idea is that at any point in time we should be able to make absolute moral decisions that will play out in futurewith no unintended consequences. Never going to happen.

I am sure when our govt supported the Shah they never dreamed it would lead to revolution and the current regime in Iran. We are making the same forsaking blunder supporting Saudi Arabia.

Decade after decade France continues to stick to a high tax socialist paradigm while remaining mired in economic troubles, witness current French riots.




History says fundamental change only comes from destruction and collapse.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

There sure are a lot of Polyannas here, I'm actually surprised.

Nothing will be done about climate change. It is happening and nothing is being done, which is not surprising given human history.

I suppose it is part of our disposition to pretend for the best.

 

[TSwizzle]

Oh my !! London has a Jerry "Moonbeam" Brown in charge.

London’s mayor, Sadiq Khan, has declared a climate emergency and urged the UK government to do more to avert an ecological breakdown that he says poses an existential threat to future generations. “We are in the midst of a climate emergency which poses a threat to our health, our planet and our children and grandchildren’s future,” Khan told the Guardian. “City Hall is doing everything in our power to mitigate the risk in London but the stark reality is that we need urgent government action and funding.”

Caroline Russell from the Green party, who proposed the motion, said it was crucial Khan backed a more radical target and called on the government to give him the appropriate powers and funding. “Catastrophic climate breakdown might be as little as 12 years away,” she said. “This would have profound impacts on every aspect of our lives in London from flooding and overheating in summers, disruption in our food supply chains as well as in the wider natural world. “The mayor needs to be at the forefront of this challenge, declaring a climate emergency and an urgent updating of his carbon reduction targets to make London carbon neutral by 2030, decades ahead of his current plans, setting a precedent for other major and world cities.”

Khan said he had already introduced a series of measures to tackle climate breakdown – from investing £500m in low carbon technologies to divesting pension funds from fossil fuels. But he said a City Hall analysis due to be published on Wednesday showed London would need a huge programme of investment as well as new powers to bring forward its zero-carbon target to 2030.

TehGruaniad

Khan is now going to charge 12.50 per day to motorists entering the London city center.

It's not about climate anymore. If it ever was about climate in the first place that is.

Oh and Heathrow will be getting it's new runway.

 

[skepticalbip]

OTOH

https://www.iflscience.com/environment/we-could-be-heading-mini-ice-age-2030/

Thanks To Reduced Solar Activity, We Could Be Heading For A Mini Ice Age In 2030

Life on Earth has always been dependent on the conditions of the Sun, so scientists spend a lot of time studying its activity. A recent announcement from solar scientists suggests that the Sun may soon enter a period of significant reduced activity, possibly causing a mini ice age by 2030 – just 15 years from now.

These predictions were announced at the National Astronomy Meeting in Llandudno, Wales, so it hasn't been possible to evaluate the research yet. However, Professor Valentina Zharkova from the University of Northumbria who made this announcement claims that the findings come from a computer model of sunspots that has made "unprecedentedly accurate predictions," as reported in The Telegraph.

The model has shown to have a 97% accuracy when mapping the past movements of sunspots, using data of solar cycles from 1976 to 2008. And if this reliability continues, then the model also has some alarming predictions for the future: a mini ice age sometime around the 2030s.

....snip....

 

[steve_bank]

I thought NYC had some kind of commuter tax in Manhattan.

 

[DBT]

Given the current trends, climate, population, consumption, etc, it's hard to imagine what the world will look like in the next fifty to a hundred years.

 

[barbos]

OTOH

https://www.iflscience.com/environment/we-could-be-heading-mini-ice-age-2030/

Thanks To Reduced Solar Activity, We Could Be Heading For A Mini Ice Age In 2030

Life on Earth has always been dependent on the conditions of the Sun, so scientists spend a lot of time studying its activity. A recent announcement from solar scientists suggests that the Sun may soon enter a period of significant reduced activity, possibly causing a mini ice age by 2030 – just 15 years from now.

These predictions were announced at the National Astronomy Meeting in Llandudno, Wales, so it hasn't been possible to evaluate the research yet. However, Professor Valentina Zharkova from the University of Northumbria who made this announcement claims that the findings come from a computer model of sunspots that has made "unprecedentedly accurate predictions," as reported in The Telegraph.

The model has shown to have a 97% accuracy when mapping the past movements of sunspots, using data of solar cycles from 1976 to 2008. And if this reliability continues, then the model also has some alarming predictions for the future: a mini ice age sometime around the 2030s.

....snip....

At most it will delay shit hitting the fan by 10 years. But what I find interesting is that the real Ice age will happen regardless of the global warming. It's still thousands of years away but imagine half of the Europe and north of the US under permanent snow. Of course at the same time Middle East and Sahara would probably be much more livable place.

 

[Tammuz]

OTOH

https://www.iflscience.com/environment/we-could-be-heading-mini-ice-age-2030/

Thanks To Reduced Solar Activity, We Could Be Heading For A Mini Ice Age In 2030

Life on Earth has always been dependent on the conditions of the Sun, so scientists spend a lot of time studying its activity. A recent announcement from solar scientists suggests that the Sun may soon enter a period of significant reduced activity, possibly causing a mini ice age by 2030 – just 15 years from now.

These predictions were announced at the National Astronomy Meeting in Llandudno, Wales, so it hasn't been possible to evaluate the research yet. However, Professor Valentina Zharkova from the University of Northumbria who made this announcement claims that the findings come from a computer model of sunspots that has made "unprecedentedly accurate predictions," as reported in The Telegraph.

The model has shown to have a 97% accuracy when mapping the past movements of sunspots, using data of solar cycles from 1976 to 2008. And if this reliability continues, then the model also has some alarming predictions for the future: a mini ice age sometime around the 2030s.

....snip....

At most it will delay shit hitting the fan by 10 years. But what I find interesting is that the real Ice age will happen regardless of the global warming. It's still thousands of years away but imagine half of the Europe and north of the US under permanent snow. Of course at the same time Middle East and Sahara would probably be much more livable place.

10 years coulod be crucial in order for us to avert climate change. That mini ice age could very well be a savior.

 

[bleubird]

Bump:https://www.carbonbrief.org/restori...o-5-5bn-tonnes-of-greenhouse-gases-every-year
Also there is a doc on netflix called "
Kiss the Ground"

 

[steve_bank]

It is already upon us in a big way. The general public does not seem all that concerned.

In Africa food security is dropping, crop failuers.

Coffee production based on the Arabica strain is expectd to drop by as much as 50%, can't take the heat. There is a report of a strain once thought extinct that tolerates temperature that has bee found in the wild.

California was running out of water for farming before droughts and climate change.

American farmers are facing crop failures due to plant intolerance.

NYC is figuring out how to sel the subways during hgih water storms. some areas are being evacuated.

The Columbia river that waters eastern Washington farms is expected to draw down due to reduced snow packs.

Miami is moving inland and raising roads.

Islands are disappearing.

From the general reporting. Saw the coffee story recently on BBC news.

Is it reversible to begin with?

 

[DBT]

OTOH

https://www.iflscience.com/environment/we-could-be-heading-mini-ice-age-2030/

Thanks To Reduced Solar Activity, We Could Be Heading For A Mini Ice Age In 2030

Life on Earth has always been dependent on the conditions of the Sun, so scientists spend a lot of time studying its activity. A recent announcement from solar scientists suggests that the Sun may soon enter a period of significant reduced activity, possibly causing a mini ice age by 2030 – just 15 years from now.

These predictions were announced at the National Astronomy Meeting in Llandudno, Wales, so it hasn't been possible to evaluate the research yet. However, Professor Valentina Zharkova from the University of Northumbria who made this announcement claims that the findings come from a computer model of sunspots that has made "unprecedentedly accurate predictions," as reported in The Telegraph.

The model has shown to have a 97% accuracy when mapping the past movements of sunspots, using data of solar cycles from 1976 to 2008. And if this reliability continues, then the model also has some alarming predictions for the future: a mini ice age sometime around the 2030s.

....snip....

At most it will delay shit hitting the fan by 10 years. But what I find interesting is that the real Ice age will happen regardless of the global warming. It's still thousands of years away but imagine half of the Europe and north of the US under permanent snow. Of course at the same time Middle East and Sahara would probably be much more livable place.

It appears that an ice age can become established within decades or less:

Quote:
''Starting roughly 12,800 years ago, the Northern Hemisphere was gripped by a chill that lasted some 1,300 years. Known by scientists as the Younger Dryas and nicknamed the "Big Freeze," geological evidence suggests it was brought on when a vast pulse of fresh water — a greater volume than all of North America's Great Lakes combined — poured into the Atlantic and Arctic Oceans.

This abrupt influx, caused when the glacial Lake Agassiz in North America burst its banks, diluted the circulation of warmer water in the North Atlantic, bringing this "conveyer belt" to a halt. Without this warming influence, evidence shows that temperatures across the Northern Hemisphere plummeted.''

Previous evidence from Greenland ice samples had suggested this abrupt shift in climate happened over the span of a decade or so. Now researchers say it surprisingly may have taken place over the course of a few months, or a year or two at most.

"That the climate system can turn on and off that quickly is extremely important," said earth system scientist Henry Mullins at Syracuse University, who did not take part in this research. "Once the tipping point is reached, there would be essentially no opportunity for humans to react."

For two years, isotope biogeochemist William Patterson at the University of Saskatchewan in Canada and his colleagues investigated a mud core — a tube of mud — taken from the ancient lake Lough Monreach in Ireland. Because this sediment was deposited slowly over time, each layer from this core effectively represents a snapshot of history, with slices just a half-millimeter thick presenting one to three months.''

 

[bleubird]

This could be good for Alaska.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021...mQgQPy8HlfbjHvXNjVKdiX2jZUlM6DfOlAas4iG_lkGhA
Scroll down to Melting ice.

 

[steve_bank]

Alaska villages on the coast ae going underwater.

As the Alaskan tundra thaws sequestered CO2 is released. A runaway scenario.

 

[bleubird]

Alaska villages on the coast ae going underwater.

As the Alaskan tundra thaws sequestered CO2 is released. A runaway scenario.

Oh, I am very aware of the situation. They are not going under water,so much as the shore line is eroding because ice protects them from storms.
I was thinking short term.We need a deep water port for the traffic and the USCG has some new icebreakers coming.

 

[Swammerdami]

History tells us that while science has largely replaced superstition, human nature remains the same. Greed, power and the rest.

Overcoming human inertia and entropy tales consistent organized cooperative effort which the post WWII years show is near imposable. Russia and China are seeking empire and dominance and will not work with the USA.
...
All human organization's are always the same.
...
It will not take much to bring the west into chaos.

While it is true that short-term self-interest will dominate the behavior of most human individuals and profit-making companies, I think it is wrong to extend this to "all human organizations."

The European Community, for example, has pushed for humanitarian values and is actively reducing CO2 emissions. The Gates Foundation and the United Nations are other counterexamples.

Pessimism may indeed be warranted. Benevolence of the Chinese and American governments can hardly be taken for granted. The modern ease of spreading disinformation has shown how precarious democracy and democratic values are. But "All human organization's are always the same" is much too strong a statement, and is not a path to the hopeful planning we need now.

~ ~ ~ ~ ~

... It appears that an ice age can become established within decades or less:

Quote:
''Starting roughly 12,800 years ago, the Northern Hemisphere was gripped by a chill that lasted some 1,300 years. Known by scientists as the Younger Dryas and nicknamed the "Big Freeze," geological evidence suggests it was brought on when a vast pulse of fresh water — a greater volume than all of North America's Great Lakes combined — poured into the Atlantic and Arctic Oceans.

Scientists have long known that global warming will cause melting of Greenland's ice which in turn will interfere with the movement of the ocean's heat to Europe. But it is average global temperature that is key to the climate crisis.