How much activism will it take to challenge Trump?

[lpetrich]

Activism experts say millions would be needed to curb Trump's behavior - Business Insider

• President Donald Trump's behavior after impeachment has alarmed experts on authoritarianism and fascism and led to calls for mass protests.
• Experts on civil resistance say it would take millions flooding the streets of major US cities to compel Republicans to change their behavior and take a stand against Trump.
• "Defections don't happen on their own," Erica Chenoweth, a political scientist at Harvard, told Insider. "People don't just spontaneously do it — they need to be called to do it, and mass, nonviolent protests is a way to call them to do it."
• "If we really want mass protests, it can't just be in Washington, DC," Dana Fisher, a sociologist who researches activism, said. "That's the kind of disruption I think is necessary to make everybody pause."

noting

Authoritarianism experts warn time is running out to stop Trump - Business Insider

• Americans are running out of time to stop President Donald Trump's authoritarian slide, experts warned.
• "There need to be mass protests," a Yale philosophy professor and expert on fascism told Insider. "The Republican Party is betraying democracy, and these are historical times. Someone has got to push back."
• Since he was acquitted in the GOP-controlled Senate earlier this month, the president has overseen a White House purge of impeachment witnesses, and the attorney general has intervened in the trial of a Trump associate.
• Republicans have mostly sat back, with at least one senator conceding that Trump's behavior did not seem to have changed because of impeachment.
• "There is absolutely no reason for him to stop pushing. It goes against both his personality and his experience," Cas Mudde, a political scientist at the University of Georgia, told Insider.

 

[repoman]

Activism that can't rightly or wrongly be portrayed as being a bunch of freaks that will cause a backfire.

 

[TSwizzle]

If only we could have an election and vote him out of office.

 

[Jarhyn]

If only we could have an election and vote him out of office.

So, what's going to be your tune if he declares a "national emergency" and tries to cancel the election?

 

[TSwizzle]

So, what's going to be your tune if he declares a "national emergency" and tries to cancel the election?

Biden/Sanders. I don't think it will be necessary to cancel the election.

 

[PyramidHead]

Business Insider quoting "activism experts" (political scientists from Harvard and philosophers from Yale!) about how to properly resist aUtHoRiTaRiAnIsM. Why not ask organizers, union members, actual protesters? These people wouldn't know activism if it hit them in their face.

 

[Jarhyn]

So, what's going to be your tune if he declares a "national emergency" and tries to cancel the election?

Biden/Sanders. I don't think it will be necessary to cancel the election.

You didn't answer the question.

*Edit: I guess you did, in that your answer including a clause about whether it would be "necessary" means that it could be considered a "necessity". Which seems to indicate that your talk about elections and voting him out is bad faith.

Of course, you do have an opportunity to contest that interpretation....

 

[lpetrich]

Republican leaders have stood quietly by as Trump purges officials who testified in the impeachment inquiry or are suspected of some kind of disloyalty. They barely flinched as Trump called for a lighter sentencing recommendation for his longtime informal adviser Roger Stone, which was promptly delivered on the orders of his attorney general. And they're not raising major objections as Trump brings in an inexperienced loyalist to be America's top spy chief amid warnings from the intelligence community of ongoing Russian threats to the 2020 election.

Do those Republican leaders think that they won't be next?

Sociologist Dana Fisher studies protest movements, and she think that "large-scale disruption" is what is needed to be effective. She points to the US civil-rights protests and the recent French ones. Tactical Innovation and the Pace of Insurgency on JSTOR on the civil-rights movement's protest tactics and responses.

There have been numerous mass protests in the Trump era. The 2017 Women's March, which took place the day after Trump was inaugurated, marked the largest single-day protest in US history. It's estimated at least 4.2 million people participated in the march in various events across the country.

Dana Fisher:

"The protests became the beginning of activism for all these Americans across the country, who then went back into their communities and congressional districts, mobilized and worked around the election in 2018 to make the blue wave happen," Fisher told Insider.

 

[lpetrich]

Erica Chenoweth:

"We've already seen at least some important electoral impacts of even that single day of protests, and then if you take into account the many other acts of protests that have happened in the US beyond the Women's March, there definitely has been an important impact on agenda setting, the progressive shift in the Democratic party, and a number of other preventative outcomes," Chenoweth told Insider.

In her research, Chenoweth looked at all major violent and nonviolent campaigns for the overthrow of a government or a territorial liberation from 1900 to 2006 and found that nonviolent civil resistance was twice as successful as violent campaigns. In short, there's a lot of empirical evidence that large-scale, nonviolent protests work. Numerous world leaders, from Iceland to South Korea, have stepped down or been pushed out in recent years after mass protests.

Nonviolent protests can still include confrontations and disruptions. Like sit-ins and blocking traffic.

EC also found that every movement that sustainably includes over 3.5% of a nation's population has succeeded, and that every such movement is nonviolent. The success of nonviolent civil resistance: Erica Chenoweth at TEDxBoulder - YouTube - she thought at first that violence was the way to go, then she found that nonviolence was more successful. Nonviolent protests can also be more inclusive. People of all genders, ages, and levels of ability can participate, as opposed to mainly young men in good health.

For an activism campaign to be successful, it has to be joined by defectors from the elites of its opponents.

"These are people who are either security forces, police, economic or business elites, or people that are political opposition leaders or political loyalists, who suddenly decide they're not supporting the status quo or they're not supporting the incumbent anymore," Chenoweth said. "They don't necessarily come over to the side of the movements in every case, but even stopping their overt support for the opponent can be a huge boost for a campaign."

As to why not such massive activism in the US? That is because many people still believe in the US electoral system, and because many activist leaders have tried to keep people from being outraged, instead preferring to participate in the elections. But if Trump is perceived as having stolen his re-election or else if he refuses to accept defeat, then the protests could be very big.

 

[Angry Floof]

How much activism will it take to challenge Trump?

3.5% of the population protesting.

Nonviolent protests are twice as likely to succeed as armed conflicts – and those engaging a threshold of 3.5% of the population have never failed to bring about change.

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190513-it-only-takes-35-of-people-to-change-the-world

 

[Gun Nut]

So, what's going to be your tune if he declares a "national emergency" and tries to cancel the election?

Biden/Sanders. I don't think it will be necessary to cancel the election.

That wasn't the question.. your "going on record" with what your opinion would be in such a circumstance is highly desired.

What is your response to the IDEA that Trump declares a national emergency to prevent the election results (regardless of what they are) from taking effect.
The IDEA that there is no election and he stays in power, or that the election results are simply discarded... what say you?

"it won't happen" is just avoidance of planting your goal post somewhere so that you can just shift it over at Trump's command.

 

[lpetrich]

Why nonviolent resistance beats violent force in effecting social, political change – Harvard Gazette She identifies four criteria for success:

1. A large and diverse population of participants whose protests are sustained
2. Loyalty shifts in the security elites and other elites: business, media, ...
3. Use of a variety of methods, and not just protests
4. When repressed, should not become chaotic or violent

Safe ways of resisting and protesting?

People have done things like bang pots and pans or go on electricity strikes or something otherwise disruptive that imposes costs on the regime even while people aren’t outside. Staying inside for an extended period equates to a general strike. Even limited strikes are very effective.

For strikes and similar activism, one needs to prepare, like stockpiling food, accumulating strike funds, and the like.

Countries in which there were nonviolent campaigns were about 10 times likelier to transition to democracies within a five-year period compared to countries in which there were violent campaigns — whether the campaigns succeeded or failed.”

A failed campaign may nevertheless encourage moderates in the elites to make reforms.

Why Civil Resistance Works | Erica Chenoweth

Though it defies consensus, between 1900 and 2006, campaigns of nonviolent resistance were more than twice as effective as their violent counterparts. Attracting impressive support from citizens that helps separate regimes from their main sources of power, these campaigns have produced remarkable results, even in the contexts of Iran, the Palestinian Territories, the Philippines, and Burma.

 

[TV and credit cards]

An economic boycott would be best for the United States. Buy just the essentials. Use it up. Wear it out. Now would be a good time. It can be done from the comfort of our own homes. Depress retail sales and the powers that be will straighten out these Republicans real quick.

 

[PyramidHead]

An economic boycott would be best for the United States. Buy just the essentials. Use it up. Wear it out. Now would be a good time. It can be done from the comfort of our own homes. Depress retail sales and the powers that be will straighten out these Republicans real quick.

I would put it on the other side of the equation, at the point of labor rather than consumption. Boycotts harm businesses, who will respond in ways that predominantly harm poor people (for instance, by closing shops in neighborhoods where people can't afford anything but the essentials anyway). A general strike of subway workers or truck drivers would get us Medicare For All, a Green New Deal, free college tuition, and whatever else we demand, in a matter of days. Airport workers stopped the government shutdown, not Nancy Pelosi. Problem is, we don't have the labor union infrastructure in place anymore to give people the confidence they need to pull something like that off while still being able to feed their families.

 

[repoman]

Cesar Chavez was right about [insulting language removed - replace with strike-breakers] hurting unions.

 

[lpetrich]

How to bring down a dictator | The Economist - YouTube Srdja Popovic (male) was involved in Otpor, an activist organization that brought down Slobodan Milosevic of Serbia. He has gone on from there to teach nonviolent tactics to activists in some 50 countries. In summary:

1. Who will participate? One may need to put together a coalition of disparate groups that are not used to working each other very much. For Poland's Solidarity, it was the urban intelligentsia, the Catholic Church, and blue-collar workers.

2. The Holy Trinity of activist strategy: unity (everybody has to work together), planning (spontaneity fails), and nonviolent discipline (gives moral force).

3. Have the means to do the activism: get lots of people involved, and one will need to raise money and otherwise acquire resources. Foreign governments should not be considered friends.

4. Beware of what opponents will say. Unpatriotic, traitor, mercenary, terrorist, ...

5. Work both online and offline. Online is not enough.

Finally, be sure to have good followup. Egypt had the problem of poor followup of the fall of Mubarak's regime. Another dictator ended up taking over.

That reminds me of what happened to the first wave of feminism in the US. After getting the vote, it fizzled out. That is curious, since there was a lot more that feminist activists could have tried to do. When feminism restarted in the 60's, feminists had to take up on where their predecessors had left off.

 

[Elixir]

How to bring down a dictator | The Economist - YouTube Srdja Popovic (male) was involved in Otpor, an activist organization that brought down Slobodan Milosevic of Serbia. He has gone on from there to teach nonviolent tactics to activists in some 50 countries. In summary:

1. Who will participate? One may need to put together a coalition of disparate groups that are not used to working each other very much. For Poland's Solidarity, it was the urban intelligentsia, the Catholic Church, and blue-collar workers.

2. The Holy Trinity of activist strategy: unity (everybody has to work together), planning (spontaneity fails), and nonviolent discipline (gives moral force).

3. Have the means to do the activism: get lots of people involved, and one will need to raise money and otherwise acquire resources. Foreign governments should not be considered friends.

4. Beware of what opponents will say. Unpatriotic, traitor, mercenary, terrorist, ...

5. Work both online and offline. Online is not enough.

Finally, be sure to have good followup. Egypt had the problem of poor followup of the fall of Mubarak's regime. Another dictator ended up taking over.

That reminds me of what happened to the first wave of feminism in the US. After getting the vote, it fizzled out. That is curious, since there was a lot more that feminist activists could have tried to do. When feminism restarted in the 60's, feminists had to take up on where their predecessors had left off.

What's #4 about? "Beware"?
Ok, then what?
It's a given that Trump will accuse whoever opposes him of whatever pops into his lame excuse for a brain.
So ... what does being "beware" do for anyone?

 

[Jarhyn]

How to bring down a dictator | The Economist - YouTube Srdja Popovic (male) was involved in Otpor, an activist organization that brought down Slobodan Milosevic of Serbia. He has gone on from there to teach nonviolent tactics to activists in some 50 countries. In summary:

1. Who will participate? One may need to put together a coalition of disparate groups that are not used to working each other very much. For Poland's Solidarity, it was the urban intelligentsia, the Catholic Church, and blue-collar workers.

2. The Holy Trinity of activist strategy: unity (everybody has to work together), planning (spontaneity fails), and nonviolent discipline (gives moral force).

3. Have the means to do the activism: get lots of people involved, and one will need to raise money and otherwise acquire resources. Foreign governments should not be considered friends.

4. Beware of what opponents will say. Unpatriotic, traitor, mercenary, terrorist, ...

5. Work both online and offline. Online is not enough.

Finally, be sure to have good followup. Egypt had the problem of poor followup of the fall of Mubarak's regime. Another dictator ended up taking over.

That reminds me of what happened to the first wave of feminism in the US. After getting the vote, it fizzled out. That is curious, since there was a lot more that feminist activists could have tried to do. When feminism restarted in the 60's, feminists had to take up on where their predecessors had left off.

What's #4 about? "Beware"?
Ok, then what?
It's a given that Trump will accuse whoever opposes him of whatever pops into his lame excuse for a brain.
So ... what does being "beware" do for anyone?

It means having an awareness and a stomach to be vilified for doing the right thing. It means being careful to be clear that you are not any of those things, not behave in those ways: make the criticisms hollow though right action.

 

[Elixir]

How to bring down a dictator | The Economist - YouTube Srdja Popovic (male) was involved in Otpor, an activist organization that brought down Slobodan Milosevic of Serbia. He has gone on from there to teach nonviolent tactics to activists in some 50 countries. In summary:

1. Who will participate? One may need to put together a coalition of disparate groups that are not used to working each other very much. For Poland's Solidarity, it was the urban intelligentsia, the Catholic Church, and blue-collar workers.

2. The Holy Trinity of activist strategy: unity (everybody has to work together), planning (spontaneity fails), and nonviolent discipline (gives moral force).

3. Have the means to do the activism: get lots of people involved, and one will need to raise money and otherwise acquire resources. Foreign governments should not be considered friends.

4. Beware of what opponents will say. Unpatriotic, traitor, mercenary, terrorist, ...

5. Work both online and offline. Online is not enough.

Finally, be sure to have good followup. Egypt had the problem of poor followup of the fall of Mubarak's regime. Another dictator ended up taking over.

That reminds me of what happened to the first wave of feminism in the US. After getting the vote, it fizzled out. That is curious, since there was a lot more that feminist activists could have tried to do. When feminism restarted in the 60's, feminists had to take up on where their predecessors had left off.

What's #4 about? "Beware"?
Ok, then what?
It's a given that Trump will accuse whoever opposes him of whatever pops into his lame excuse for a brain.
So ... what does being "beware" do for anyone?

It means having an awareness and a stomach to be vilified for doing the right thing. It means being careful to be clear that you are not any of those things, not behave in those ways: make the criticisms hollow though right action.

Having the guts and willingness to be vilified is a prerequisite for standing up to a dictator, so I wouldn't fear for a lack of those qualities in "the opposition".
Being careful to be clear that you're not what you're being accused of being is tricky - puts you on defense, unless you can make the criticisms hollow through right action. And that only works with people who know wtf right action is, not with supporters of dictators.

 

[TV and credit cards]

I don’t know how doable #3 is: raising money. The government can just label it a terrorist organization and starve it of funds.
I don’t know that any of this would work in the US. Perhaps in countries with weaker governments but the US is to well established.
We gotta kick um in the in the family jewels: retail sales. This is where the power of the people resides in the United States. Generations of training us to be good little consumers and good little consumers we are. But what if we weren’t?

https://www.aclu.org/other/how-usa-patriot-act-redefines-domestic-terrorism