How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Copernicus]

Japan is a success story. South Korea is a success story.

They were not liberal democracies for most of their recent modern history And you can't compare them to Russia. US does not want liberal democracy in Russia.

Japan was flat out occupied and governed by US.
Korea was flat out occupied and governed by US installed authocrats who were worse than Putin. And both Japan and South Korea were utterly uninteresting as a target for pillaging.

Germany was also occupied by the US, France, the UK, and the Soviet Union before becoming success stories, yet it was a liberal democracy before Hitler. Your concept of "recent history" is off. Japan and South Korea have been liberal democracies for the past 70 years. Russia almost succeeded in getting there before Putin, and it will hopefully get there after him. Ukraine is more of a liberal democracy now than Russia is, as are most of the east European territories formerly dominated by the Soviet Union. A major flaw I saw in Mearsheimer's position, was that he was blind to the importance of domestic politics and political ideology in shaping regional politics, not to mention the advance of globalized supply chains, over the past half century. To me, his concept of great power politics is somewhat dated, but "realism" (offensive or defensive) is all about ignoring ideological goals and local political aspirations when analyzing international politics.

ETA: BTW, kudos to you for posting the Mearsheimer videos. They were a great contribution to the thread topic. The discussion here has now turned in a more interesting direction.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

People are just thinking about it as "I love Russia Day." Not too terribly difficult to understand.

Yeah, much less controversial than Columbus day, or even Thanksgiving.

Right. The same as "I Love America Day." I'm sure the average Joe and the average Vlad are equally tribal. But you have to admit that the average Joe has more freedom than the average Vlad. Well, you don't have to admit that but it is certainly true.

 

[barbos]

Germany was also occupied by the US, France, the UK, and the Soviet Union before becoming success stories

I see, you are advocating flat out occupation of Russia, got it.

By the way, the way it's going USA will need to be occupied by someone. Canada, Mexico maybe

 

[barbos]

A major flaw I saw in Mearsheimer's position, was that he was blind to the importance of domestic politics and political ideology in shaping regional politics, not to mention the advance of globalized supply chains, over the past half century. To me, his concept of great power politics is somewhat dated, but "realism" (offensive or defensive) is all about ignoring ideological goals and local political aspirations when analyzing international politics.

He did not mention a lot of stuff, does not mean he is blind, it means it was not relevant to the topic. Otherwise you would be watching 10 hours lecture.

 

[zorq]

Germany was also occupied by the US, France, the UK, and the Soviet Union before becoming success stories

I see, you are advocating flat out occupation of Russia, got it.

By the way, the way it's going USA will need to be occupied by someone. Canada, Mexico maybe

There's no need for that bad faith argument there. I will give you that the US has been slipping quite a bit on the democracy and corruption indexes lately. But that's the thing. You don't have to destroy a country to make it better.

You mentioned above that you think that if Russia became a liberal democracy it "would be 10 times worse than what is going on in Ukraine right now. And US assholes know that." I don't know what you are talking about here at all but if you think that a country has to be destroyed to make it better, that's simply not true. Changing the structure a country can be painful. There will always be entrenched powers who prefer the status quo for selfish reasons. But if the leaders of a country make a conscious choice to bring positive changes to the people, the pain can be temporary and moderate. Blanket destruction need not apply.

Despite huge US financial aid, South Korea was one of the poorest countries on Earth following the Korean war because it's leaders were super corrupt. South Korea's economic miracle in the '60s and '70s was built with a brutal undemocratic dictator calling the shots, but South Korea's economic growth and prosperity that brought it to the #12 largest world economy have liberal democracy to thank. Not bad for a country smaller than Minnesota. Note that while this brief history of S. Korea includes a significant military coup, there were no civil wars, no foreign invasions and no blanket destruction of the country. If a country aims to make improvements from within, it can be done without great pain.

If the US focuses on eliminating its recent issues with rising corruption and anti-democratic politicians. It can do it without getting invaded. And that's true for Russia too.

 

[barbos]

You mentioned above that you think that if Russia became a liberal democracy it "would be 10 times worse than what is going on in Ukraine right now. And US assholes know that." I don't know what you are talking about here at all but if you think that a country has to be destroyed to make it better, that's simply not true.

Of course you don't know what I am talking about. You have never lived in 1990s Russia.
All your examples involve countries which were utterly destroyed, then occupied and then authoritarians (South Korea) were installed and only recently they became liberal democracies which have no own defense and hence for all intents and purposes are still occupied. They are not independent and if something happens and US does not like that something then that something will be dealt with.

Despite huge US financial aid, South Korea was one of the poorest countries on Earth

So again, your example does not apply unless you plan to make Russia one of the poorest countries on Earth.
By the way, just Yesterday Ukraine became poorest country in Europe. I guess the plan is working.

All these Eastern Europe liberal democracies (Poland/Hungary excluded) are not proof of anything. These are all small countries without armies and any possible internal conflicts, which were bought by the West wholesome with huge amounts of money. They had nothing in the form of mineral resources for West/US to steal. Their only use for the West was to set a stage for NATO expansion against Russia.
Russia is none of that. Any kind of revolution in Russia will destroy all economic growth and will attract thieves from all over the West, then mayhem and death.
Russians are not interested in that. There are large number of new businesses which are not related to theft of USSR property, they want to continue as is.

 

[barbos]

Note that while this brief history of S. Korea includes a significant military coup, there were no civil wars, no foreign invasions and no blanket destruction of the country.

There were no Korean War? Interesting, very interesting.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

It is so interesting that tribalism so easily wins the day. It must make an intelligent person question what drives tribalism. The russian tribe vs the american tribe. So typical. Obviously what sustains and drives this insane behavior is emotionalism, specifically a mix of fear and greed.

When asked why he fled Germany Einstein replied that his country had gone mad. So obvious and so true.

 

[barbos]

It's not tribalism. it's an Echo Chamber between Cold War Era scam in US government and US Media. Nothing MSM/US government says about Russia is true, it's all a lie.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

It's not tribalism. it's an Echo Chamber between Cold War Era scam in US government and US Media. Nothing MSM/US government says about Russia is true, it's all a lie.

You've just demonstrated my point. Thank-you!

It would be far more advantageous to the people of russia and america to cooperate on everything, to not spend their fortunes building weapons to kill each other. Think of all the resources that were wasted on wars. It's incredible. All that could have been spent making lives more productive and peaceful. I think Einstein was right. Now if we could only get there globally we'd have something to be proud of.

 

[Harry Bosch]

It is so interesting that tribalism so easily wins the day. It must make an intelligent person question what drives tribalism. The russian tribe vs the american tribe. So typical. Obviously what sustains and drives this insane behavior is emotionalism, specifically a mix of fear and greed.

When asked why he fled Germany Einstein replied that his country had gone mad. So obvious and so true.

It's too simplistic to say that it's America vs Russia. This isn't the new cold war. There are one group of people who want to govern themselves; there's another that wants to expand. Russian manifest destiny if you will. Yes, the US was in this imperialist mode 150 years ago. My ancestors were victims to this. Russia is in its expansion mode now. The only question is how far will they expand. How much more land will they conquer? I hate to tell my Ukranian friends, but Russia isn't going to give up Crimea. I hear that the area is a favorite for Russian generals and the Russian elite to vacation to. They going to slice off a large part of eastern Ukraine. There just isn't much the west can do to stop it. If Ukraine were smart, they should consolidate what they have and hunker down. But here's the issue that Barbos won't answer: how far is Russia going to expand? Finland? The Baltics. Poland. How far will their imperialism go?

 

[barbos]

It's not tribalism. it's an Echo Chamber between Cold War Era scam in US government and US Media. Nothing MSM/US government says about Russia is true, it's all a lie.

You've just demonstrated my point. Thank-you!

No, I did not.

It would be far more advantageous to the people of russia and america to cooperate on everything, to not spend their fortunes building weapons to kill each other. Think of all the resources that were wasted on wars. It's incredible. All that could have been spent making lives more productive and peaceful. I think Einstein was right. Now if we could only get there globally we'd have something to be proud of.

It would not be advantageous to US government people.

 

[barbos]

It is so interesting that tribalism so easily wins the day. It must make an intelligent person question what drives tribalism. The russian tribe vs the american tribe. So typical. Obviously what sustains and drives this insane behavior is emotionalism, specifically a mix of fear and greed.

When asked why he fled Germany Einstein replied that his country had gone mad. So obvious and so true.

It's too simplistic to say that it's America vs Russia. This isn't the new cold war. There are one group of people who want to govern themselves; there's another that wants to expand. Russian manifest destiny if you will. Yes, the US was in this imperialist mode 150 years ago. My ancestors were victims to this. Russia is in its expansion mode now. The only question is how far will they expand. How much more land will they conquer? I hate to tell my Ukranian friends, but Russia isn't going to give up Crimea. I hear that the area is a favorite for Russian generals and the Russian elite to vacation to. They going to slice off a large part of eastern Ukraine. There just isn't much the west can do to stop it. If Ukraine were smart, they should consolidate what they have and hunker down. But here's the issue that Barbos won't answer: how far is Russia going to expand? Finland? The Baltics. Poland. How far will their imperialism go?

Complete and utter garbage.
You still have not watched lecture.

 

[Harry Bosch]

It is so interesting that tribalism so easily wins the day. It must make an intelligent person question what drives tribalism. The russian tribe vs the american tribe. So typical. Obviously what sustains and drives this insane behavior is emotionalism, specifically a mix of fear and greed.

When asked why he fled Germany Einstein replied that his country had gone mad. So obvious and so true.

It's too simplistic to say that it's America vs Russia. This isn't the new cold war. There are one group of people who want to govern themselves; there's another that wants to expand. Russian manifest destiny if you will. Yes, the US was in this imperialist mode 150 years ago. My ancestors were victims to this. Russia is in its expansion mode now. The only question is how far will they expand. How much more land will they conquer? I hate to tell my Ukranian friends, but Russia isn't going to give up Crimea. I hear that the area is a favorite for Russian generals and the Russian elite to vacation to. They going to slice off a large part of eastern Ukraine. There just isn't much the west can do to stop it. If Ukraine were smart, they should consolidate what they have and hunker down. But here's the issue that Barbos won't answer: how far is Russia going to expand? Finland? The Baltics. Poland. How far will their imperialism go?

Complete and utter garbage.
You still have not watched lecture.

I know that you probably won't answer me, but in your opinion, what additional land is Russia entitled to? Is there any redline that Putin could cross that you wouldn't support?

 

[barbos]

Russia is not the aggressor here

Putting all the blame on Putin for the crisis in Ukraine obscures the West's own role.

www.spiked-online.com

 

[barbos]

 

[Jarhyn]

It is so interesting that tribalism so easily wins the day. It must make an intelligent person question what drives tribalism. The russian tribe vs the american tribe. So typical. Obviously what sustains and drives this insane behavior is emotionalism, specifically a mix of fear and greed.

When asked why he fled Germany Einstein replied that his country had gone mad. So obvious and so true.

It's too simplistic to say that it's America vs Russia. This isn't the new cold war. There are one group of people who want to govern themselves; there's another that wants to expand. Russian manifest destiny if you will. Yes, the US was in this imperialist mode 150 years ago. My ancestors were victims to this. Russia is in its expansion mode now. The only question is how far will they expand. How much more land will they conquer? I hate to tell my Ukranian friends, but Russia isn't going to give up Crimea. I hear that the area is a favorite for Russian generals and the Russian elite to vacation to. They going to slice off a large part of eastern Ukraine. There just isn't much the west can do to stop it. If Ukraine were smart, they should consolidate what they have and hunker down. But here's the issue that Barbos won't answer: how far is Russia going to expand? Finland? The Baltics. Poland. How far will their imperialism go?

Complete and utter garbage.
You still have not watched lecture.

I know that you probably won't answer me, but in your opinion, what additional land is Russia entitled to? Is there any redline that Putin could cross that you wouldn't support?

[post removed]

It's not a loaded question.

You seem to think that Russia is entitled to do everything pursuant to an invasion, getting stacked up right along the border on account of another country merely having enough idle troops not along the border as to make russia being stacked on that border unfruitful.

You have never in my memory once said "Putin ought not do this thing" or "Putin is being unwise in this".

It is not loaded to ask you for a goalpost you will not shift.

We have no obligation to watch an hour long video without transcripts.

 

[Jarhyn]

We have no obligation to watch an hour long video without transcripts.

I have no obligation to reply to garbage you are spewing here.

You don't, it just makes you look bad when you don't, because...

No, it makes you look bad because I have expressed my position a million times
Now you want me to make a transcript of 1 hour long lecture.
Who the fuck do you think you are, princess?
I specifically said you need to watch it. Don't want to watch it? then get the fuck out of this thread, you are not contributing.

If you have answered it, it should be no trouble to point to the answer.

What red line would you say Putin ought not cross? What creates the shapes of such lines?

Defensive realism as a concept...

If people name things to be descriptive it seems more to me "defense of bad faith expansionism" would be more appropriate.

Yes, I'm demanding that you, on a forum that I joined because it is NOT YouTube, so as to discuss things in TEXT format, put it in text format to discuss.

Some here have done as much and the parts they have posted are quite illuminating on the bad faith present.

Edit: to be clear, there is no situation one cannot be "realistic" about to the tune that it is not merely an excuse for bad behavior.

Preemptive attack is not defense. It is an attack.

I'm here, on the topic of the OP video, to discuss how it is a piece of apologia to a bad faith action, because it is always bad faith to call an attack a defense.

 

[barbos]

What red line would you say Putin ought not cross? What creates the shapes of such lines?

What is this?

 

[barbos]

I'm here, on the topic of the OP video, to discuss how it is a piece of apologia to a bad faith action, because it is always bad faith to call an attack a defense.

and what is that?
Are you OK?