How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Jimmy Higgins]

If Germany had not surrendered before Japan the first atomic bomb would have ben dropped on Berlin. If Germnay got the bomb first it woud have been dropped on Moscow followed by London

From what I read Truman consdered using nukes on China for entering the Korean War, but decided against it because it would deplete the stockpile.. Russian deference was more important.

Thanks but that's not what I'm asking and doesn't answer anything about Ukraine. I'm asking what would have happened if Hitler and the allies both had nuclear weapons in 1935. What happens? What does Hitler do? Understand? Would the allies have allowed Hitler to simply threaten nuclear weapons and go on about invading and terrorizing? Would the allied fear of nuclear weapon use allowed Hitler to do as he pleased?

Of course, the nuclear weapon isn't hindsight yet.

 

[steve_bank]

Thanks but that's not what I'm asking and doesn't answer anything about Ukraine. I'm asking what would have happened if Hitler and the allies both had nuclear weapons in 1935. What happens? What does Hitler do? Understand? Would the allies have allowed Hitler to simply threaten nuclear weapons and go on about invading and terrorizing? Would the allied fear of nuclear weapon use allowed Hitler to do as he pleased?

It would have been atomic war limited by the ability to make bombs.

Von Braun developed Hitler's Vengeance Weapons, the V1 and V2. The V1, the buzz bomb, was an indiscriminate terror weapon. It was designed to run out of fue over a city. The V2 was a balistc missle that carried a larger payload. It had a crude guidance system that lanbed it in a city. No tactical value, another terror wepon.

During the Battle Of Britain when the RAF was on its heels Hitler made one of his greatest blunders. He switched from attacking RAF infrastructure to terror bombing of civilians. If he had a nuclear weapon London would have been destroyed. Same with Moscow.

Given the size and weight the bombs could only have been delivered by a heavy bomber. The Brits and Americans had that advantage. Germany would have had a hard time delivering it plus the the Alies had air superiority.

If either side used it as a battlefield weapon there would be supply problems. That we did use the weapons on Japan twice obviously says we had no hesitation.

If Japan were to be invaded one plan was to use nukes to bomb a path into Japan from the beaches. Radiation effects were not yet fully understood.

If Hitler had a weapon pre war given the Allied appeasement Hiter would have have certainly made full use of it as leverage.

It is said Hitler who served in WWI and probably saw chemical weapons chose not to use them out of fear of retaliation. If both sides had pre war nukes MAD might have worked, but whether it would have detered Hitler's conventional war there is no way to know.

If the Russians had it would Barbarossa have happened?

It would come down to how many casualties an agressor is willing to incur. If we sent trops into Ukraine woud it escalte to nukes as Putin infers or is he bluffing.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Russian warship Moskva has sunk - defence ministry - BBC News

"While being towed... towards the destined port, the vessel lost its balance due to damage sustained in the hull as fire broke out after ammunition exploded. Given the choppy seas, the vessel sank," state news agency Tass quoted the Russian defence ministry as saying.

BTW, "Moskva" is the Russian original of Moscow's name.  Russian cruiser Moskva

Ukrainian officials credit their side's Ukraine-built Neptune anti-ship missiles, while Russian ones claim that there was some accident.

When they say "ammunition exploded", it's notable that they don't specify whose ammunition.

Actually, the Russians are probably telling the "truth" here. The ship was likely sunk by a fire setting off some of their ammunition. The thing is the Ukrainian missiles didn't have heavy enough warheads to expect to sink a ship of that size. However, look at a picture of the ship--note those big round things on the foredeck? They hold P-500 Bazalt supersonic cruise missiles. 1000kg warheads plus a lot of fuel. There's a reason you don't see much in the way of weapons on US warships! It's the same problem as their tanks--easy-to-hit ammunition that will go up pretty spectacularly.

(And earlier today I was reading it has two radars--the 360 degree radar that probably couldn't pick up a sea skimmer given the weather conditions of the attack and a second one that should have been able to--but only can see 180 degrees. Thus the distracting drones--they were keeping an eye on them but a simple drone isn't worth expending a S-300 SAM on. I'm not finding a pricetag for them but they're big-ass missiles akin to the Patriot, thus probably quite expensive.)

 

[Copernicus]

But US intelligence now believes the Ukrainian side of the story that their two cruise missiles hit the ship, which may have been carrying an inordinate amount of explosives and may also have been lured closer to shore before the strike. It may be a blessing for Russia that the ship sank to the bottom of the sea, because they may not have been able to suppress clear evidence of a missile strike. Nobody disputes that the ship was on fire, but what started the fire is in question. A missile strike would likely have set off the warheads and fuel, even if the Ukrainian missiles did not have sufficient firepower to actually sink the ship. A subsequent fire setting off the Russian warheads could have finished the job for them.

A Russian warship in the Black Sea was sunk by Ukrainian missiles, U.S. official says​

 

[Harry Bosch]

The Ukrainians have to win.

To win, Ukrainians will have to kill 5 Russians for every Ukranian killed. Russia’s biggest asset is their huge supply of expendable soldiers/citizens/conscripts.
Even at that rate it will take years. Unless they can kick Russia out of Crimea and the East real quick, how can they “win”?

Well, it's a little bit less than this ratio. Common military reports state that it takes about 5 offenders vs every 1 defender to take a well defended area. The Russians don't have this many troops. Yes, they are importing Syrians and Nazi merks (like Wagner). But they will run out of troops eventually. I don't believe that Ukraine will be able to take Crimea. But (and this is a tragedy for Ukraine); Ukrainians win by just surviving. It's going to be a battle of the wills. But here's the difference, the Russians can just go home when they lose their will. The Ukrainians are fighting in their home. They have no choice. Ukrainians win by persevering their state.

On the other hand, the Russians already lost. They attacked in order to split Nato in half and convince the other eastern European countries to turn towards Russia. That's been an absolute failure.

Note that Russia is the "defender" already for a large part of the Eastern and Southern parts of the country, so the 5-to-1 calculus there is against Ukraine. I read somewhere that Russia is also conscripting residents of the "people's republics" to do the upkeep and policing of the occupied territory, which frees actual soldiers to fight the Ukrainian army.

The big fight is due for the next couple of weeks, when Russia tries to push south from Izyum and cut off Ukrainian defenders deeper in Donbas. I have no idea how that will turn out, but I'm not optimistic. Russian troops may be less motivated and some of their equipment broken, but the initial numbers advantage is too great. And Russia has much more long range striking capability. Recently Russia said that they had destroyed S-300 anti-air system in Mykolaiv; if true, that means Ukrainian air defenses are going down. Which means more missiles and planes will hit their targets.

Jay: I don't disagree with you. I'm very pessimistic about this war. Russians hold most of the short term cards. We mostly send defensive weapons to Ukraine that have short range. The Russians will just use their long term artillery and aircraft and just pound the Ukranians. And starve them to death. But the west should do everything in our power to bankrupt Russia. And be ready to prop up whatever remains of Ukraine with massive western support and aid. I don't think that Russia will take western Ukraine at least. But the Russians have chosen war. And we need to find a way to stop them at some point.

There are limits to what US and NATO can do.

Providing state-of-the-art western weapons systems isn't just about money (although it is about that too), because the Ukrainian army would need to be trained to use them. The better option of sending old soviet weapons is good, but not limitless: the other countries are not going to just de-arm their own armies, and even if US promises to give them replacements, that takes time. So does producing new weapons off the assembly line.

Many EU/NATO countries haven't really stocked up on weapons since the end of the cold war, and just have enough for their own active duty soldiers.

If Russia manages to break through the defenses south of Izyum, the war could become very long. if it fails, maybe Putin would be willing to cut some sort of ceasefire or a peace deal at least. After that, I hope that US and EU realize that they can't just drop the financial support. We need to have a Marshall-plan like rebuilding package for Ukraine, including reforms to curb the corruption and enforce public institutions, or that Money's just going to be pocketed by the Oligarchs and corrupt government officials like in Afghanistan. Ukraine was one of the most corrupt countries in Europe before the war. The good thing is that some of Putin's confiscated war chest might be used to finance this plan, but just throwing money at a problem hasn't proven to be very reliable means of nation building.

Totally agree with your post. Ukraine is really in a shitty position (is anyone surprised that Finland and Sweden are joining NATO tout suite?). Yes, after this war is over, the west must agree to help Ukraine rebuild and rearm. Yes, Ukraine was one of the most corrupt places on earth, but primarily before 2014. Having a great enemy like Russia has united the country. The corruption will never end completely, but the country is uniting into making sacrifices that will make Ukraine stronger (hopefully). Putin has revitalized the Eastern European countries in a great way.

 

[Harry Bosch]

BBC proves there are no nazis in Ukraine.
I was so wrong.

Hate to tell you this maty, but there are Nazis everywhere unfortunately. There was a small Nazi rally in my hometown last week. Nazi's don't scare us as easily as they scare Russians though. But I wouldn't advise sending any of your Russian Cracker-Jack troopers to save the day. Sorry to say but they wouldn't be welcome and would get stomped. Outsiders who blow up homes and kill civilians are not welcome here.

 

[steve_bank]

Will the real Nazis please stand up?

Nazis invaded Ukraine, Putin invades Ukraine.

Nazis killed indiscriminately, Putin kills indiscriminately.

Neizis suppressed free speech and free press, Putin suppresses free speech and free press

Nazis without rule of law declared critics enemies of the state and jailed them. Putin without e rule of law has critcs declared traitors and enemies of the state and jails them.

Nazis made a blunder invading Russia. Putin made a blunder invading Ukraine.

Nazis brought destruction to Germany in the end. Put is bringing economic destruction to Russia.
Goebbels was broadcasting Nazi superiority and propaganda right up until he committed suicide with Hitler. Russian media continues to broadcast victory and sucess when we know it is not.

Nazis were genocidal making room for German populations. Putin is genocidal eradicating Ukranian people and culture replacing it with Russian culture.

Hitler committed suicide. Putin TBD.

For all practical comparisons, Put and his oligarchs are fucking Nazis and shoud be treated as such. No diplomacy and no tact. The time for diplomacy is gone, time to be publicly blunt and direct.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Will the real Nazis please stand up?

Nazis invaded Ukraine, Putin invades Ukraine.

Nazis killed indiscriminately, Putin kills indiscriminately.

Neizis suppressed free speech and free press, Putin suppresses free speech and free press

Nazis without rule of law declared critics enemies of the state and jailed them. Putin without e rule of law has critcs declared traitors and enemies of the state and jails them.

Nazis made a blunder invading Russia. Putin made a blunder invading Ukraine.

Nazis brought destruction to Germany in the end. Put is bringing economic destruction to Russia.
Goebbels was broadcasting Nazi superiority and propaganda right up until he committed suicide with Hitler. Russian media continues to broadcast victory and sucess when we know it is not.

Nazis were genocidal making room for German populations. Putin is genocidal eradicating Ukranian people and culture replacing it with Russian culture.

Hitler committed suicide. Putin TBD.

For all practical comparisons, Put and his oligarchs are fucking Nazis and shoud be treated as such. No diplomacy and no tact. The time for diplomacy is gone, time to be publicly blunt and direct.

Totally agree. There are far more Nazis in Russia than Ukraine. Far more. My point is that there are Nazi's in every country. Russia using the possible existence of Nazis in a country as an excuse to invade and kill people is absolutely insane. Finland is next unless they can get into NATO soon enough.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

BBC proves there are no nazis in Ukraine.
I was so wrong.

Hate to tell you this maty, but there are Nazis everywhere unfortunately. There was a small Nazi rally in my hometown last week. Nazi's don't scare us as easily as they scare Russians though. But I wouldn't advise sending any of your Russian Cracker-Jack troopers to save the day. Sorry to say but they wouldn't be welcome and would get stomped. Outsiders who blow up homes and kill civilians are not welcome here.

I would definitely consider Russia a neo-nazi state.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

This article

Airstrikes in Russia Stir Anger in Moscow

states that Moscow is accusing Ukraine of carrying out attacks in Russia. Doesn't Moscow also consider Ukraine part of Russia? Isn't that part of the pretext for the invasion? Whoever is producing the talking points in Moscow isn't very bright.

Russia on Thursday accused Ukraine of carrying out a helicopter strike on a border town in its territory, and warned that it may deploy nuclear weapons close to the Baltic states and Scandinavia if Finland and Sweden join NATO.

Klimovo, the town that came under attack, is in the southern Bryansk region, and is about 10 kilometers from the border and 500 kilometers from Moscow.

And their flagship guided missile cruiser is on the bottom but apparently the onboard fire leading to its demise was accidental. If so then why pull your other vessels further from shore?

The Russian neo-nazis appear to have done their homework like all good nazis should.

 

[crazyfingers]

In some ways Putin is just as childish as Trump. Putin attacks Ukraine and Ukraine attacks back and Putin gets his undies in a twist.

 

[lpetrich]

A Soviet-Era Air Defense System Arrives in Ukraine From Slovakia - The New York Times

Encouraged by the United States, Slovakia “donated” a bulky but effective S-300, hoping to challenge Russian domination of the skies in the war next door.

DOBRA, Slovakia — Driving back to his village near the Ukrainian border last Thursday, the mayor had to stop to let a train pass, and assumed he wouldn’t have to wait long. But the flatbed wagons, stacked high with military equipment, just kept coming. He waited for nearly half an hour.

“It was a very long train, much longer than usual,” recalled Mikolas Csoma, the mayor of Dobra, a previously sleepy village in eastern Slovakia that, over the past month, has become a key artery funneling weapons and ammunition into Ukraine by rail from the West.

The Slovak S-300 system dates back to the 1980's, the last years of the Warsaw Pact. The US will compensate Slovakia by giving that nation some Patriot missiles, a similar -- and more recent -- air-defense system.

Other big items now under discussion for transport to Ukraine via Slovakia include aging MIG-29 warplanes and sophisticated, self-propelled Howitzers called Zuzana 2. Also under review is a plan for Ukraine to send hundreds of damaged tanks, some of them captured from Russian forces, across the border for repair in Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Poland, all of which have experience fixing Soviet-made equipment.

Ukrainian soldiers and pilots and repair crews have lots of experience with Soviet-era military hardware, so giving them hand-me-downs from ex-Soviet and ex-Soviet-bloc countries is a good strategy.

Dobra is a vilage in Slovakia on the border with Hungary and 10 km west of Ukraine. It has a place where standard-gauge and Russian-gauge railroad tracks meet.  Track gauge is the separation of the inner sides of the rails. Standard gauge is 4'8.5" or 1435 mm, while Russian gauge is 5' or 1520 mm. Standard gauge is the most widely used gauge, and is used in most of Europe, while Russian guage is used in ex-Soviet countries, Finland, and Mongolia. Including Ukraine.

 

[Harry Bosch]

In some ways Putin is just as childish as Trump. Putin attacks Ukraine and Ukraine attacks back and Putin gets his undies in a twist.

I think that it's just stunning that Putin is so naive and so blind to human nature. I think that he actually thought that after days of bombing the shit out of Ukrainian villages, that the Ukrainians would welcome the Russian soldiers with open arms! Now he's upset that Finland and Sweden want to join NATO after watching how Russia treats Ukraine. He really has no clue. He's continuously shocked that Ukrainians are fighting back. But they have no choice. Ukraine is their country.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

In some ways Putin is just as childish as Trump. Putin attacks Ukraine and Ukraine attacks back and Putin gets his undies in a twist.

I think that it's just stunning that Putin is so naive and so blind to human nature. I think that he actually thought that after days of bombing the shit out of Ukrainian villages, that the Ukrainians would welcome the Russian soldiers with open arms! Now he's upset that Finland and Sweden want to join NATO after watching how Russia treats Ukraine. He really has no clue. He's continuously shocked that Ukrainians are fighting back. But they have no choice. Ukraine is their country.

He's a clever, ruthless dictator, don't expect him to have much of an intellect. He knows exactly what he's doing and it preserves his wealth, power and relative freedom. A free, democratic Ukraine governed by the rule of law is sticking into his side, into his territory. He is afraid of Ukraine same as he fears any democracy on the borders of his turf, be it Finland or Poland. But Ukraine is this giant dagger sticking right into his turf. He cannot tolerate this and is his greatest present fear because his safe territory where he can rule with fear and intimidation is shrinking and he has nowhere else to go.

 

[Copernicus]

I think that Putin sees himself as a fait accompli that the rest of the world will gradually just have to live with, the same way they did with Saudi Crown Prince MBS after he had a reporter chopped up with a bone saw. After the war ends and Ukraine lies in ruins, Putin will just wait for everyone's attention span to focus elsewhere. A lot of countries, especially China and India, not to mention their huge criminal enterprises abroad, will help to keep Russia afloat. All he has to do is hunker down and ignore the rest of the world. Russian citizens are pretty much cowed, and their opinions don't really matter in the end. He controls all the reins of power in Russia.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

From the Boing Boing website. Your WTF Russian post for the day.
...
Ukrainian officials said their forces hit the vessel with missiles, while Russia acknowledged a fire aboard the Moskva but no attack. U.S. and other Western officials could not confirm what caused the blaze.

Back in 2020, the Russian State-owned news agency TASS reported that this same ship had been armed with a piece of the True Cross, a Christian relic that is believed to have been part of the cross upon which Jesus Christ was crucified approximately 1,989 years ago today:...
...

Do all Russian warship have their own holy relic?

 

[lpetrich]

Blind Faith: Religious Forgeries from the Middle Ages to the Age of Technology - MagellanTV - there was a LOT of fakery of medieval relics. The Shroud of Turin was one of numerous fake relics.  True Cross - one supposed piece of that cross was found to date to the 11th cy. by radiocarbon dating.

I remember a news story in the New York Times from around 1990 about a saint's head drawing big crowds.


As to the Shroud of Turin (Italy; Jesus Christ), I think that it's like the Cloak of Kandahar (Afghanistan; Mohammed) and the Tooth of Kandy (Sri Lanka; the Buddha).

 

[Ford]

In some ways Putin is just as childish as Trump. Putin attacks Ukraine and Ukraine attacks back and Putin gets his undies in a twist.

I think that it's just stunning that Putin is so naive and so blind to human nature. I think that he actually thought that after days of bombing the shit out of Ukrainian villages, that the Ukrainians would welcome the Russian soldiers with open arms! Now he's upset that Finland and Sweden want to join NATO after watching how Russia treats Ukraine. He really has no clue. He's continuously shocked that Ukrainians are fighting back. But they have no choice. Ukraine is their country.

He's a clever, ruthless dictator, don't expect him to have much of an intellect. He knows exactly what he's doing and it preserves his wealth, power and relative freedom. A free, democratic Ukraine governed by the rule of law is sticking into his side, into his territory. He is afraid of Ukraine same as he fears any democracy on the borders of his turf, be it Finland or Poland. But Ukraine is this giant dagger sticking right into his turf. He cannot tolerate this and is his greatest present fear because his safe territory where he can rule with fear and intimidation is shrinking and he has nowhere else to go.

With his latest "peace offering" (demanding that the Ukrainian soldiers defending Mariupol surrender or die) it appears that Putin seems to be accepting of the fact that he's not going to annex the whole of Ukraine like he wanted. So he takes the port city, uses it as leverage to secure his hold on Eastern Ukraine (or the "independent republics" if you believe Barbos) and then try to get Kyiv to agree to disarm and never join NATO or the EU. He's trying to get whatever concessions he can for now, and then wait things out until he can try all this over again in a few years.

Putin sees himself as the heir of Ivan the Terrible, Peter the Great, and maybe Stalin. He's not, but that's the conceit he's operating from. What worries me is that Ukraine might give him some or all of the concessions he wants, and if that happens he'll just re-set the timeline and try it all again.

 

[Jayjay]

And their flagship guided missile cruiser is on the bottom but apparently the onboard fire leading to its demise was accidental. If so then why pull your other vessels further from shore?

To play the devil's advocate, even if it was an accidental fire, loss of their main anti-air platform in the black sea would still be a good reason to pull away other vessels.

 

[ZiprHead]