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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

The problem of Russian 'tourists' is Russian spying. Finland and Sweden do not need a swarm of under cover Russian military intelligence officers 'touring' these new NATO members.
Not just Finland and Sweden. If a Russian operative can enter Schengen area via one country, they can pretty much go wherever they like in the EU. Let's not forget that the guys who poisoned Sergei Skripal were in UK on tourist visas also.
 
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More bad news:


Satellite surveillance has been one aspect where US/NATO intelligence has been able to help Ukraine gain an edge. Now Russia is poised to improve it's own imaging capabilities, which means it can target Ukrainian troop concentrations and equipment more reliably. I wonder though how Iran is able to produce a better spy satellite than Russia, but I guess it's just a matter of timing: Russia didn't think it needed it until this year, and Iran has been working on it longer.

Iranian UAVs are another problem. Let's hope the Iranian tech turns out to be garbage.
 

How long before Russia hits either the ship or the port again?
My understanding is the ship and the tug accompanying it left early this morning our time and as of now is still untouched.
Who knows, it might hit a sea mine, which Russia will say was Ukrainian... that's what I'd do if I was a criminal like Putin.
What is wrong with you? Sea mines are all ukrainian, this is not in a dispute.
They put them there to prevent russian attack on Odessa and around. They did not hide that fact. Seriously, what the fuck is wrong with you?
 
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Russia is planning to have a fake referendum to annex to territories in Russia on September 11th. After that, it will argue that attacks on occupied territories are attacks against Russia. The purpose of the circus is to make a domestic justification for using nukes or mobilization. Even if no other country recognizes the annexation, it will raise the bar considerably. And even if there wasn't a referendum, the purges and forced Russification of the occupied territories are effective. Already Ukrainian currency is forbidden, schools are forced to teach children only in Russian and according to Russian curriculum, and police forces are replaced by people brought from Russia.

So Ukraine has about 6 weeks to start making some gains. Even if the momentum may be shifting slowly, that's a difficult task.
Five weeks now. The clock is ticking, and I don't see Ukraine making much progress.
 

How long before Russia hits either the ship or the port again?
My understanding is the ship and the tug accompanying it left early this morning our time and as of now is still untouched.
Who knows, it might hit a sea mine, which Russia will say was Ukrainian... that's what I'd do if I was a criminal like Putin.
What is wrong with you? Sea mines are all ukrainian, this is not in a dispute.
They put them there to prevent russian attack on Odessa. and around. They said did not hide that fact. Seriously, what the fuck is wrong with you?
I didn't claim the mines aren't Ukrainian. I was suggesting that Russia could attack the ship (with a torpedo or mine or whatever) and pretend it was an Ukrainian mine. Just like it tried to pretend that Russia killing 53 POWs in Olenivka was an Ukrainian HIMARS strike.

In any case, that was pure speculation. The ship made it, and I'm glad I was wrong.
 

How long before Russia hits either the ship or the port again?
My understanding is the ship and the tug accompanying it left early this morning our time and as of now is still untouched.
Who knows, it might hit a sea mine, which Russia will say was Ukrainian... that's what I'd do if I was a criminal like Putin.
What is wrong with you? Sea mines are all ukrainian, this is not in a dispute.
They put them there to prevent russian attack on Odessa. and around. They said did not hide that fact. Seriously, what the fuck is wrong with you?
I didn't claim the mines aren't Ukrainian. I was suggesting that Russia could attack the ship (with a torpedo or mine or whatever) and pretend it was an Ukrainian mine. Just like it tried to pretend that Russia killing 53 POWs in Olenivka was an Ukrainian HIMARS strike.

In any case, that was pure speculation. The ship made it, and I'm glad I was wrong.
Ukrainian army DID hit their own prisoners
Just because your lying press says it could have been russians does not make it so.
They are lying scam. Ukrainians did it. Russians had no reasons whatsoever to bomb their own prison. Criminal ukrainian regime murdered these prisioners to prevent their own troops from surrender. Everyone knows that.
Your press are filthy liars!
 

How long before Russia hits either the ship or the port again?
My understanding is the ship and the tug accompanying it left early this morning our time and as of now is still untouched.
Who knows, it might hit a sea mine, which Russia will say was Ukrainian... that's what I'd do if I was a criminal like Putin.
What is wrong with you? Sea mines are all ukrainian, this is not in a dispute.
They put them there to prevent russian attack on Odessa. and around. They said did not hide that fact. Seriously, what the fuck is wrong with you?
I didn't claim the mines aren't Ukrainian. I was suggesting that Russia could attack the ship (with a torpedo or mine or whatever) and pretend it was an Ukrainian mine. Just like it tried to pretend that Russia killing 53 POWs in Olenivka was an Ukrainian HIMARS strike.

In any case, that was pure speculation. The ship made it, and I'm glad I was wrong.
Ukrainian army DID hit their own prisoners
Just because your lying press says it could have been russians does not make it so.
They are lying scam. Ukrainians did it. Russians had no reasons whatsoever to bomb their own prison. Criminal ukrainian regime murdered these prisioners to prevent their own troops from surrender. Everyone knows that.
Your press are filthy liars!
There is a fog of war here, and we don't know what happened yet. The trouble Barbos, is that Russia and Putler have lied so much and broke it's word so many times, that Russian word is for shit now. No one trusts Russia. Russia and Ukraine enter into a complex and difficult agreement to try to ship grain; your side bombs the port hours after the agreement is signed! Great that the grain barge went through. But I really wouldn't count on dependable grain shipments until all Russian ships are at the bottom of the black sea.
 

How long before Russia hits either the ship or the port again?
My understanding is the ship and the tug accompanying it left early this morning our time and as of now is still untouched.
Who knows, it might hit a sea mine, which Russia will say was Ukrainian... that's what I'd do if I was a criminal like Putin.
What is wrong with you? Sea mines are all ukrainian, this is not in a dispute.
They put them there to prevent russian attack on Odessa. and around. They said did not hide that fact. Seriously, what the fuck is wrong with you?
I didn't claim the mines aren't Ukrainian. I was suggesting that Russia could attack the ship (with a torpedo or mine or whatever) and pretend it was an Ukrainian mine. Just like it tried to pretend that Russia killing 53 POWs in Olenivka was an Ukrainian HIMARS strike.

In any case, that was pure speculation. The ship made it, and I'm glad I was wrong.
Ukrainian army DID hit their own prisoners
Just because your lying press says it could have been russians does not make it so.
They are lying scam. Ukrainians did it. Russians had no reasons whatsoever to bomb their own prison. Criminal ukrainian regime murdered these prisioners to prevent their own troops from surrender. Everyone knows that.
Your press are filthy liars!
There is a fog of war here, and we don't know what happened yet. The trouble Barbos, is that Russia and Putler have lied so much and broke it's word so many times, that Russian word is for shit now. No one trusts Russia. Russia and Ukraine enter into a complex and difficult agreement to try to ship grain; your side bombs the port hours after the agreement is signed! Great that the grain barge went through. But I really wouldn't count on dependable grain shipments until all Russian ships are at the bottom of the black sea.
Bullshit. It is Ukrainian regime who has been lying for the last 30 years (not just 8).
This country is based on lies. Everything there is a lie.
They teach in school that Gagarin was ukrainian. Everything good in USSR was due to ukrainians, everything bad was and is due to russians. And it's been going on pretty much all that time since 1991
You can't make this shit up.
 

How long before Russia hits either the ship or the port again?
My understanding is the ship and the tug accompanying it left early this morning our time and as of now is still untouched.
Who knows, it might hit a sea mine, which Russia will say was Ukrainian... that's what I'd do if I was a criminal like Putin.
What is wrong with you? Sea mines are all ukrainian, this is not in a dispute.
They put them there to prevent russian attack on Odessa. and around. They said did not hide that fact. Seriously, what the fuck is wrong with you?
I didn't claim the mines aren't Ukrainian. I was suggesting that Russia could attack the ship (with a torpedo or mine or whatever) and pretend it was an Ukrainian mine. Just like it tried to pretend that Russia killing 53 POWs in Olenivka was an Ukrainian HIMARS strike.

In any case, that was pure speculation. The ship made it, and I'm glad I was wrong.
Ukrainian army DID hit their own prisoners
Just because your lying press says it could have been russians does not make it so.
They are lying scam. Ukrainians did it. Russians had no reasons whatsoever to bomb their own prison. Criminal ukrainian regime murdered these prisioners to prevent their own troops from surrender. Everyone knows that.
Your press are filthy liars!
There is a fog of war here, and we don't know what happened yet. The trouble Barbos, is that Russia and Putler have lied so much and broke it's word so many times, that Russian word is for shit now. No one trusts Russia. Russia and Ukraine enter into a complex and difficult agreement to try to ship grain; your side bombs the port hours after the agreement is signed! Great that the grain barge went through. But I really wouldn't count on dependable grain shipments until all Russian ships are at the bottom of the black sea.
Bullshit. It is Ukrainian regime who has been lying for the last 30 years (not just 8).
This country is based on lies. Everything there is a lie.
They teach in school that Gagarin was ukrainian. Everything good in USSR was due to ukrainians, everything bad was and is due to russians. And it's been going on pretty much all that time since 1991
You can't make this shit up.
The sad thing about this is that you use to be suspicious of the Russian government propaganda. War changes people. It makes them feel cornered and bitter. The Russians can't kill every Ukranian. The Ukrainians can't retreat. They are in their country. You are the invaders. I'm sorry that the west was so mean to Russia. But the war isn't going to end until your side returns home.
 

How long before Russia hits either the ship or the port again?
My understanding is the ship and the tug accompanying it left early this morning our time and as of now is still untouched.
Who knows, it might hit a sea mine, which Russia will say was Ukrainian... that's what I'd do if I was a criminal like Putin.
What is wrong with you? Sea mines are all ukrainian, this is not in a dispute.
They put them there to prevent russian attack on Odessa. and around. They said did not hide that fact. Seriously, what the fuck is wrong with you?
I didn't claim the mines aren't Ukrainian. I was suggesting that Russia could attack the ship (with a torpedo or mine or whatever) and pretend it was an Ukrainian mine. Just like it tried to pretend that Russia killing 53 POWs in Olenivka was an Ukrainian HIMARS strike.

In any case, that was pure speculation. The ship made it, and I'm glad I was wrong.
Ukrainian army DID hit their own prisoners
Just because your lying press says it could have been russians does not make it so.
No, it doesn't, but the evidence does make it so.

A Russian admits in an intercepted call that there were bombs inside the prison, and the explosions were covered with a Grad barrage (and gunshots afterwards, I guess to finish off any surviving M31 rocket...). And he scene doesn't look at all like a HIMARS strike, it looks like a fire: no impact crater, walls still standing and ceiling not blown off, flimsy beds almost intact except for the fire, and no impact crater.

This is what a HIMARS strikes look like:

photo_2022-07-23_14-31-18-1.jpg
072fa16-photo-2022-07-25-08-46-14--1-.jpg


And this is Olenivka:

Znimok-ekrana-2022-07-30-o-22.51.37-1.png


More images here.

Also: Isn't it a funny coincidence that not a single Russian guard got killed or injured? Or that there was no SAM response? Or that the Azovstal defenders were separated from other prisoners just a few days ago? :rolleyes:

The only "evidence" that Russia presented for its claim that it was HIMARS, are fragments of M31 missiles on a nearby bench. They could have been collected from any of the multiple sites that were hit before. But unlike previous strikes, all of which to my knowledge have some footage of the pieces in situ, these fragments just show up on that blue bench. Not a single image or video clip of them inside the prison building. And there is just one video that I've seen with a serial number, all later video seem to have that part removed for some reason... maybe Russian fakers don't want the origin of the pieces actually being tracked down?

They are lying scam. Ukrainians did it. Russians had no reasons whatsoever to bomb their own prison. Criminal ukrainian regime murdered these prisioners to prevent their own troops from surrender. Everyone knows that.
Your press are filthy liars!
Russians had every reason to kill them. Your own politicians in the Duma called for the Azovstal defenders to be killed. The Russian embassy in London said they should be hanged because they don't deserve a firing squad. Russia certainly doesn't want to return them because they'll be hailed as heroes in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, in Ukraine, Zelensky is the one who ordered these guys to surrender instead of fight to the death.
 

How long before Russia hits either the ship or the port again?
My understanding is the ship and the tug accompanying it left early this morning our time and as of now is still untouched.
Who knows, it might hit a sea mine, which Russia will say was Ukrainian... that's what I'd do if I was a criminal like Putin.
What is wrong with you? Sea mines are all ukrainian, this is not in a dispute.
They put them there to prevent russian attack on Odessa. and around. They said did not hide that fact. Seriously, what the fuck is wrong with you?
I didn't claim the mines aren't Ukrainian. I was suggesting that Russia could attack the ship (with a torpedo or mine or whatever) and pretend it was an Ukrainian mine. Just like it tried to pretend that Russia killing 53 POWs in Olenivka was an Ukrainian HIMARS strike.

In any case, that was pure speculation. The ship made it, and I'm glad I was wrong.
Ukrainian army DID hit their own prisoners
Just because your lying press says it could have been russians does not make it so.
They are lying scam. Ukrainians did it. Russians had no reasons whatsoever to bomb their own prison. Criminal ukrainian regime murdered these prisioners to prevent their own troops from surrender. Everyone knows that.
Your press are filthy liars!
There is a fog of war here, and we don't know what happened yet. The trouble Barbos, is that Russia and Putler have lied so much and broke it's word so many times, that Russian word is for shit now. No one trusts Russia. Russia and Ukraine enter into a complex and difficult agreement to try to ship grain; your side bombs the port hours after the agreement is signed! Great that the grain barge went through. But I really wouldn't count on dependable grain shipments until all Russian ships are at the bottom of the black sea.
Bullshit. It is Ukrainian regime who has been lying for the last 30 years (not just 8).
This country is based on lies. Everything there is a lie.
They teach in school that Gagarin was ukrainian.
Do they really, or is that just Russian propaganda that you've swallowed whole? You don't have a very good track record with these things.

So many of the things you've claimed have turned out to be complete bullshit, that "Ukrainian text books say Yuri Gagarin was Ukrainian" is probably bullshit too. But I'm open to changing my mind if you provide proof that this text book exists and it was actually used for teaching.

Everything good in USSR was due to ukrainians, everything bad was and is due to russians. And it's been going on pretty much all that time since 1991
You can't make this shit up.
But apparently Russian propaganda can.
 

How long before Russia hits either the ship or the port again?
My understanding is the ship and the tug accompanying it left early this morning our time and as of now is still untouched.
Who knows, it might hit a sea mine, which Russia will say was Ukrainian... that's what I'd do if I was a criminal like Putin.
What is wrong with you? Sea mines are all ukrainian, this is not in a dispute.
They put them there to prevent russian attack on Odessa. and around. They said did not hide that fact. Seriously, what the fuck is wrong with you?
I didn't claim the mines aren't Ukrainian. I was suggesting that Russia could attack the ship (with a torpedo or mine or whatever) and pretend it was an Ukrainian mine. Just like it tried to pretend that Russia killing 53 POWs in Olenivka was an Ukrainian HIMARS strike.

In any case, that was pure speculation. The ship made it, and I'm glad I was wrong.
Ukrainian army DID hit their own prisoners
Just because your lying press says it could have been russians does not make it so.
No, it doesn't, but the evidence does make it so.

A Russian admits in an intercepted call that there were bombs inside the prison, and the explosions were covered with a Grad barrage (and gunshots afterwards, I guess to finish off any surviving M31 rocket...). And he scene doesn't look at all like a HIMARS strike, it looks like a fire: no impact crater, walls still standing and ceiling not blown off, flimsy beds almost intact except for the fire, and no impact crater.

This is what a HIMARS strikes look like:

View attachment 39729
072fa16-photo-2022-07-25-08-46-14--1-.jpg


And this is Olenivka:

Znimok-ekrana-2022-07-30-o-22.51.37-1.png


More images here.

Also: Isn't it a funny coincidence that not a single Russian guard got killed or injured? Or that there was no SAM response? Or that the Azovstal defenders were separated from other prisoners just a few days ago? :rolleyes:

The only "evidence" that Russia presented for its claim that it was HIMARS, are fragments of M31 missiles on a nearby bench. They could have been collected from any of the multiple sites that were hit before. But unlike previous strikes, all of which to my knowledge have some footage of the pieces in situ, these fragments just show up on that blue bench. Not a single image or video clip of them inside the prison building. And there is just one video that I've seen with a serial number, all later video seem to have that part removed for some reason... maybe Russian fakers don't want the origin of the pieces actually being tracked down?

They are lying scam. Ukrainians did it. Russians had no reasons whatsoever to bomb their own prison. Criminal ukrainian regime murdered these prisioners to prevent their own troops from surrender. Everyone knows that.
Your press are filthy liars!
Russians had every reason to kill them. Your own politicians in the Duma called for the Azovstal defenders to be killed. The Russian embassy in London said they should be hanged because they don't deserve a firing squad. Russia certainly doesn't want to return them because they'll be hailed as heroes in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, in Ukraine, Zelensky is the one who ordered these guys to surrender instead of fight to the death.
Wow, that is great analysis Jay. It's so laughable that Russians want Ukraine to de-arm itself and surrender.
 
There is a fog of war here, and we don't know what happened yet. The trouble Barbos, is that Russia and Putler have lied so much and broke it's word so many times, that Russian word is for shit now. No one trusts Russia. Russia and Ukraine enter into a complex and difficult agreement to try to ship grain; your side bombs the port hours after the agreement is signed! Great that the grain barge went through. But I really wouldn't count on dependable grain shipments until all Russian ships are at the bottom of the black sea.
Bullshit. It is Ukrainian regime who has been lying for the last 30 years (not just 8).
This country is based on lies. Everything there is a lie.
They teach in school that Gagarin was ukrainian. Everything good in USSR was due to ukrainians, everything bad was and is due to russians. And it's been going on pretty much all that time since 1991
You can't make this shit up.
The sad thing about this is that you use to be suspicious of the Russian government propaganda. War changes people. It makes them feel cornered and bitter. The Russians can't kill every Ukranian. The Ukrainians can't retreat. They are in their country. You are the invaders. I'm sorry that the west was so mean to Russia. But the war isn't going to end until your side returns home.
Unfortunately Russia doesn't have to kill literally every Ukrainian. They just have to kill enough for them to be unable to fight back. The likeliest scenario in my opinion is still that Russia annexes entire South and East, and creates some sort of puppet state or an utterly destroyed country in whatever remains. But there is a small chance that Western aid can help Ukraine negotiate better terms.
 
There is a fog of war here, and we don't know what happened yet. The trouble Barbos, is that Russia and Putler have lied so much and broke it's word so many times, that Russian word is for shit now. No one trusts Russia. Russia and Ukraine enter into a complex and difficult agreement to try to ship grain; your side bombs the port hours after the agreement is signed! Great that the grain barge went through. But I really wouldn't count on dependable grain shipments until all Russian ships are at the bottom of the black sea.
Bullshit. It is Ukrainian regime who has been lying for the last 30 years (not just 8).
This country is based on lies. Everything there is a lie.
They teach in school that Gagarin was ukrainian. Everything good in USSR was due to ukrainians, everything bad was and is due to russians. And it's been going on pretty much all that time since 1991
You can't make this shit up.
The sad thing about this is that you use to be suspicious of the Russian government propaganda. War changes people. It makes them feel cornered and bitter. The Russians can't kill every Ukranian. The Ukrainians can't retreat. They are in their country. You are the invaders. I'm sorry that the west was so mean to Russia. But the war isn't going to end until your side returns home.
Unfortunately Russia doesn't have to kill literally every Ukrainian. They just have to kill enough for them to be unable to fight back. The likeliest scenario in my opinion is still that Russia annexes entire South and East, and creates some sort of puppet state or an utterly destroyed country in whatever remains. But there is a small chance that Western aid can help Ukraine negotiate better terms.
I'm a little more optimistic than you, but not by much. But your analysis is more precise than mine. But yea, I think that the west really needs to pour the aid into Ukraine. Ukraine is fighting for us. There is zero doubt in my mind that if Ukraine had collapsed early, that Russia would have invaded the Baltics, Moldova, and Poland next. The west needs to figure out how to increase our sanctions against Russia. We need to continue to separate them from the world. We've lost India. But I do think that China is getting tired of Russia. I think that China is the key. If China starts turning on Russia, game over. Pelosi's trip to Taiwan dosn't help here. If the Ukrainians are willing to fight, we should be doing everything that we can, short of nuclear war, to help them.
 

Shit posting pranksters drive Russion propagandists off the internet with cute shiba inu cartoon dogs. Giggle,
 
Has Russia's carpet bombing of Ukraine been halted?

So this is to be the month of Russia's undoing. The month where Russia runs so low on hardware, they just can't fight the conventional fight much longer. I read they are putting together more and more poor impoverished "volunteers" with promises of good pay. But do they have anything to put in their hands to fight with?
Also the linked story has some heartening anecdotes of partisan fighting going on deep in the Russian occupied areas. So, if this collapses, it may just collapse in a big hurry. Maybe not Afghan Army fast, but fast.
That is if Putin is willing to take a conventional loss and go home. Any bets on if he plays dirtier?
 
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