How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[bilby]

...
One suggestion I've heard is that tourist visas would be allowed, but during the process the applicants would have to answer questions like "Do you support Russia's war on Ukraine?" or be shown material from Russia's atrocities in Bucha for example. And there's no reason to stop after the war. When traveling from Europe to America, I still have to check a box to affirm I'm not a WW2-era war criminal. Same logic could apply here.

Apparently, some officials cannot imagine a WW2-era war criminal lying about such a thing.

They also ask whether your visit to the USA is for the purpose of committing terrorist acts, which is pretty clever - as soon as someone ticks "yes", they'll have them bang to rights...

 

[Copernicus]

...
One suggestion I've heard is that tourist visas would be allowed, but during the process the applicants would have to answer questions like "Do you support Russia's war on Ukraine?" or be shown material from Russia's atrocities in Bucha for example. And there's no reason to stop after the war. When traveling from Europe to America, I still have to check a box to affirm I'm not a WW2-era war criminal. Same logic could apply here.

Apparently, some officials cannot imagine a WW2-era war criminal lying about such a thing.

They also ask whether your visit to the USA is for the purpose of committing terrorist acts, which is pretty clever - as soon as someone ticks "yes", they'll have them bang to rights...

But you don't appreciate the cleverness of the scheme. We would expect them to say "no". According to Loren, they will now be caught having lied to the government upon entry and can be easily deported after the terrorist act. That ought to at least give them pause, don't you think? Either way, we've got them.

 

[bilby]

...
One suggestion I've heard is that tourist visas would be allowed, but during the process the applicants would have to answer questions like "Do you support Russia's war on Ukraine?" or be shown material from Russia's atrocities in Bucha for example. And there's no reason to stop after the war. When traveling from Europe to America, I still have to check a box to affirm I'm not a WW2-era war criminal. Same logic could apply here.

Apparently, some officials cannot imagine a WW2-era war criminal lying about such a thing.

They also ask whether your visit to the USA is for the purpose of committing terrorist acts, which is pretty clever - as soon as someone ticks "yes", they'll have them bang to rights...

But you don't appreciate the cleverness of the scheme. We would expect them to say "no". According to Loren, they will now be caught having lied to the government upon entry and can be easily deported after the terrorist act. That ought to at least give them pause, don't you think? Either way, we've got them.

Mr Smith, you have been found guilty of killing two thousand Americans in a despicable act of terror, and are hereby sentenced to death by lethal injection. Furthermore, you have been found guilty of lying on your visa application, and shall be fined $50, and have your visa cancelled with immediate effect.

 

[ZiprHead]

A thread on the Russian massacre of POWs at Olenivka

 

[Jayjay]

Incendiary, not "thermobaric".

EDIT: Or at least that's the way it looks to me. Thermobaric weapons are supposed to also have a pressure wave, but the bodies in the images look like they were only burned... but maybe this is just my own ignorance.

 

[Jayjay]

On worse news, it seems like Russia reinforced one of the bridges over Dnieper so it's passable now, and are in the process of doing the same to the Antonovsky bridge. I think Ukraine should target the repair crews next time.

 

[Jayjay]

An interesting article that (partially) debunks Mearsheimer's oft-repeated arguments:

What’s Missing from Mearsheimer’s Analysis of the Ukraine War | Russia Matters

www.russiamatters.org

TLDR: NATO and the West could have handled Ukraine's and Georgia's NATO bids more diplomatically since 2008, and not raised the stakes against Russia with anti-missile defense systems in Poland and Romania. But Mearsheimer also makes some pretty hasty omissions by ignoring Russia's authoritarian political system and its deterioration to fascism, and by relegating Ukraine into a mere pawn in the game of big powers.

 

[Copernicus]

An interesting article that (partially) debunks Mearsheimer's oft-repeated arguments:

What’s Missing from Mearsheimer’s Analysis of the Ukraine War | Russia Matters

www.russiamatters.org

TLDR: NATO and the West could have handled Ukraine's and Georgia's NATO bids more diplomatically since 2008, and not raised the stakes against Russia with anti-missile defense systems in Poland and Romania. But Mearsheimer also makes some pretty hasty omissions by ignoring Russia's authoritarian political system and its deterioration to fascism, and by relegating Ukraine into a mere pawn in the game of big powers.

It is too bad that barbos never had an interest in addressing the substantive criticisms of Mearsheimer and kept insisting that no one wanted to discuss him. I raised many of these same points earlier in the thread, particularly the point that NATO didn't expand eastward so much as former eastern bloc countries fled westward and clamored to join NATO as protection against Russian expansionism.

My only quibble with the article's author is his praise of Mearsheimer's somewhat lonely stand with his so-called "objective realism" theory of international relations as being more popular than it really has been. Maybe it was among his former students, and he certainly has been promoted by the Russian propaganda machine. However, he is but one political scientist among many, and his theory isn't all that popular with the rest of his field. What makes him stand out so much is that he gives his critics a lot of red meat to chew on with his incessant criticism of US foreign policy. He is a China hawk, which appeals to a lot of policy wonks, but his proposal of forming some kind of political alliance with Russia to oppose China is completely delusional. Russia was not about to let itself be tucked into a pocket of US foreign policy, and a lot of what was driving it had nothing to do with Russia's real national interests. Instead, it had to do with Vladimir Putin's angst over the collapse of the Soviet Union, which played well with ultranationalist right wing fanatics in Russia.

 

[Jayjay]

1st ship carrying Ukrainian grain leaves the port of Odesa

The first ship carrying Ukrainian grain has set out from the port of Odesa. The departure of the ship laden with corn follows an internationally brokered deal that is expected to finally allow large stores of Ukrainian crops to reach foreign markets and ease a growing hunger crisis.

apnews.com

How long before Russia hits either the ship or the port again?

 

[Jayjay]

He is a China hawk, which appeals to a lot of policy wonks, but his proposal of forming some kind of political alliance with Russia to oppose China is completely delusional. Russia was not about to let itself be tucked into a pocket of US foreign policy, and a lot of what was driving it had nothing to do with Russia's real national interests. Instead, it had to do with Vladimir Putin's angst over the collapse of the Soviet Union, which played well with ultranationalist right wing fanatics in Russia.

Right. The Irony is that Russia is culturally European. Or rather, the Russian elites in Moscow and St. Petersburg. When Napoleon invaded Russia, the Russians he was fighting against spoke better French than he did. And now, the Russian middle-classes wouldn't mind at all consuming Western fashion and entertainment, using western technology, visiting western countries as tourists, even if they might think we're all homosexuals. For some, that might actually be the motivation.

The problem is Russia's ruling class, the old KGB fucks and their younger doppelgangers, who want to restore the Russian empire. If Russia was a democracy, it would be a natural ally to the west and wouldn't think twice about it. But sadly, that's probably not going to happen for the next 50 or 100 years, if ever.

 

[Copernicus]

Right. The Irony is that Russia is culturally European. Or rather, the Russian elites in Moscow and St. Petersburg. When Napoleon invaded Russia, the Russians he was fighting against spoke better French than he did. And now, the Russian middle-classes wouldn't mind at all consuming Western fashion and entertainment, using western technology, visiting western countries as tourists, even if they might think we're all homosexuals. For some, that might actually be the motivation.

The upper classes after Peter I were oriented towards western Europe, but they spoke a bookish dialect typical of people who acquired it through formal study. The French invaders really spoke authentic French. Nowadays, English has replaced French as the fashionable foreign language, and it sometimes crops up spontaneously in Russian conversations, just as French once used to.

The problem is Russia's ruling class, the old KGB fucks and their younger doppelgangers, who want to restore the Russian empire. If Russia was a democracy, it would be a natural ally to the west and wouldn't think twice about it. But sadly, that's probably not going to happen for the next 50 or 100 years, if ever.

It is also just Russians who feel nostalgia for the Soviet era, which has gone through a period of whitewashing in the popular media. But there is a real generation gap, especially in urban populations. That's why a lot of the strongest recruitment efforts going on now are in remote and rural areas, where military age youths are less likely to be resistant to the war in Ukraine. They have a very hard time finding new voluntary recruits in the major cities.

 

[ZiprHead]

1st ship carrying Ukrainian grain leaves the port of Odesa

The first ship carrying Ukrainian grain has set out from the port of Odesa. The departure of the ship laden with corn follows an internationally brokered deal that is expected to finally allow large stores of Ukrainian crops to reach foreign markets and ease a growing hunger crisis.

apnews.com

How long before Russia hits either the ship or the port again?

My understanding is the ship and the tug accompanying it left early this morning our time and as of now is still untouched.

 

[Jayjay]

1st ship carrying Ukrainian grain leaves the port of Odesa

The first ship carrying Ukrainian grain has set out from the port of Odesa. The departure of the ship laden with corn follows an internationally brokered deal that is expected to finally allow large stores of Ukrainian crops to reach foreign markets and ease a growing hunger crisis.

apnews.com

How long before Russia hits either the ship or the port again?

My understanding is the ship and the tug accompanying it left early this morning our time and as of now is still untouched.

Who knows, it might hit a sea mine, which Russia will say was Ukrainian... that's what I'd do if I was a criminal like Putin.

 

[ZiprHead]

1st ship carrying Ukrainian grain leaves the port of Odesa

The first ship carrying Ukrainian grain has set out from the port of Odesa. The departure of the ship laden with corn follows an internationally brokered deal that is expected to finally allow large stores of Ukrainian crops to reach foreign markets and ease a growing hunger crisis.

apnews.com

How long before Russia hits either the ship or the port again?

My understanding is the ship and the tug accompanying it left early this morning our time and as of now is still untouched.

Who knows, it might hit a sea mine, which Russia will say was Ukrainian... that's what I'd do if I was a criminal like Putin.

I don't believe Ukraine has the ability to place sea mines.

 

[Copernicus]

1st ship carrying Ukrainian grain leaves the port of Odesa

The first ship carrying Ukrainian grain has set out from the port of Odesa. The departure of the ship laden with corn follows an internationally brokered deal that is expected to finally allow large stores of Ukrainian crops to reach foreign markets and ease a growing hunger crisis.

apnews.com

How long before Russia hits either the ship or the port again?

My understanding is the ship and the tug accompanying it left early this morning our time and as of now is still untouched.

Who knows, it might hit a sea mine, which Russia will say was Ukrainian... that's what I'd do if I was a criminal like Putin.

I don't believe Ukraine has the ability to place sea mines.

It's not possible to answer this question definitively, because Ukraine has so far remained silent about Russian charges that those are Ukrainian mines. However, it is well known that Russia is equipped to lay such mines and had greater opportunity than Ukraine to do it. It is a violation of international law to use floating mines, because they can break away an endanger shipping far from the original site. This article gives more details on the subject of who is at fault for laying the mines:

Opinion: Is There A Serious Sea Mine Threat In The Black Sea?​

 

[Jayjay]

Institute for the Study of War

Russian forces have likely decided to attack Avdiivka frontally from occupied Donetsk Oblast territory rather than waiting for Ukrainian forces to withdraw from their prepared defensive positions as a result of Russian envelopment operations northeast of

www.understandingwar.org

Russian forces have likely decided to attack Avdiivka frontally from occupied Donetsk Oblast territory rather than waiting for Ukrainian forces to withdraw from their prepared defensive positions as a result of Russian envelopment operations northeast of the settlement. The Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) and Kremlin-sponsored sources have published videos suggesting that Russian forces pushed Ukrainian forces out of their positions around the Butivka Coal Mine ventilation shaft southwest of Avdiivka.[1] Ukrainian forces have held positions around the Butivka Coal Mine ventilation shaft since 2015 and have described the location as the closest Ukrainian position to Donetsk City and a key defensive outpost for Avdiivka.[2] Russian forces have likely captured the Ukrainian position, given the Ukrainian General Staff‘s vague reports of ”partially” successful Russian advances in the area.[3] Russian forces are also continuing assaults on Pisky, west of Avdiivka, and will likely attempt to seize the E50 highway connecting the two settlements. Russian forces had previously attempted to break through Avdiivka’s northeastern outskirts but have not made significant progress in months.

Fuck a duck.

The complacency of western countries still amazes me. Russia is testing Iranian UAVs, and will soon use them in the battlefield. To me it seems western powers haven't delivered anything to counter that threat either, but are just waiting to see what happens and might react later. And from the looks of it, Ukraine is still struggling with counter-battery fire and destruction of Russian artillery pieces, even after several months.

 

[ZiprHead]

Brittney Griner sentenced to 9 years in Russian prison on drug charges

 

[Politesse]

If she's guilty of the crime, that doesn't seem unreasonable to me. When traveling, it is prudent to understand the law on things like the drugs you're going to need to declare. Always true, let alone when traveling to an enemy nation during wartime.

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

...
Yea, the Russian soldiers are Basterds. There is a reason why all of Europe has united against Russia, they don't want these fuckers in their country. There is also a growing movement to ban Russian citizens from vacationing in Europe (Finland started it). Russian citizens shouldn't be able go on vacation while they countrymen are torturing and killing people in Ukraine. The Ukrainians get not vacation.

Finland debating stop to tourist visas for Russian citizens

Other neighbouring Schengen zone countries such as Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland have already restricted visas

www.theguardian.com

I'm not happy with vilifying Russians in general for what is happening in Ukraine. The Russian military allows more unrestrained brutality against populations that it invades and occupies, but it is a mistake to think that ordinary Russians ought to be able to restrain their government. I believe that military organizations in most countries would engage in similar atrocities, if they got involved in a war run by ultranationalist fanatics. (Of course, Nazi Germany comes to mind thanks to Godwin.) Pretty much nobody but Putin and his jingoistic cronies wanted this war with Ukraine. It took most Russians by surprise, just as it did most of those outside of Russia.

That said, it does seem bizarre that ordinary Russian citizens should be allowed to vacation outside of Russia while the aggression continues. Given the restrictions on currency exchanges, I'm not sure that many Russians can leave the country anyway, except if they plan to simply defect to the West and use a tourist visa as an excuse to get away. Russian spies can certainly use those tourist visas to infiltrate the West, and they can get their hands on Western currencies for their missions. That would seem to be a more serious threat to the Western allies of Ukraine than just vacationing Russians.

The problem of Russian 'tourists' is Russian spying. Finland and Sweden do not need a swarm of under cover Russian military intelligence officers 'touring' these new NATO members.