How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Jayjay]

This has to piss of Putin and his cronies. The bridge was Putin's personal project and its destruction (or at least damage, it's not as if it can't be rebuilt) is an enormous symbolic blow. The reaction is predictable by this point: propagandists calling for harsh reprisals against command centers in Kyiv or NATO countries, and an increased missile strikes against civilian targets.

 

[Jayjay]

And they got it on camera:



Sweet.

(Except not for the likely civilian car that got torched. That's sad, but wars tend to have collateral damage.)

 

[TV and credit cards]

 

[Jayjay]

Russia is saying that the explosion in Crimean bridge was caused by a truck bomb, and from the footage and damage it sounds plausible: the road bridge that collapsed was the epicenter, and apparently caused another portion of the bridge to fall as well, damaged the adjacent lane, and set the tanker train on fire. Presumably the explosion was intended to blow up the train, which would have caused even more damage to the railway bridge, but failed to do so. Possibly a suicide mission.

The railway connection is probably easy to repair, mostly just fire damage. The second lane of the road bridge might still work, but that depends on whether there was structural damage to that side that would prevent heavy traffic. And if it was a suicide truck, stopping any future attacks of that nature just requires better inspections at the checkpoints in Russian side, so there's no fear of repeat attacks like in Antonivskyi bridge in Kherson. The effect on Russian logistics is probably going to be short-lived, but the mental blow is still huge.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Russia is saying that the explosion in Crimean bridge was caused by a truck bomb, and from the footage and damage it sounds plausible: the road bridge that collapsed was the epicenter, and apparently caused another portion of the bridge to fall as well, damaged the adjacent lane, and set the tanker train on fire. Presumably the explosion was intended to blow up the train, which would have caused even more damage to the railway bridge, but failed to do so. Possibly a suicide mission.

The railway connection is probably easy to repair, mostly just fire damage. The second lane of the road bridge might still work, but that depends on whether there was structural damage to that side that would prevent heavy traffic. And if it was a suicide truck, stopping any future attacks of that nature just requires better inspections at the checkpoints in Russian side, so there's no fear of repeat attacks like in Antonivskyi bridge in Kherson. The effect on Russian logistics is probably going to be short-lived, but the mental blow is still huge.

I'd think it would have to be, or some very predictable scheduling of truck traffic across the bridge while known tanker cars are crossing. Though they likely have been doing reconnaissance on the bridge for some time.
We'll have to see how long it burns to see how much structural damage it sustains to know when trains can cross again.

 

[Jayjay]

Russia is saying that the explosion in Crimean bridge was caused by a truck bomb, and from the footage and damage it sounds plausible: the road bridge that collapsed was the epicenter, and apparently caused another portion of the bridge to fall as well, damaged the adjacent lane, and set the tanker train on fire. Presumably the explosion was intended to blow up the train, which would have caused even more damage to the railway bridge, but failed to do so. Possibly a suicide mission.

The railway connection is probably easy to repair, mostly just fire damage. The second lane of the road bridge might still work, but that depends on whether there was structural damage to that side that would prevent heavy traffic. And if it was a suicide truck, stopping any future attacks of that nature just requires better inspections at the checkpoints in Russian side, so there's no fear of repeat attacks like in Antonivskyi bridge in Kherson. The effect on Russian logistics is probably going to be short-lived, but the mental blow is still huge.

I'd think it would have to be, or some very predictable scheduling of truck traffic across the bridge while known tanker cars are crossing.

Using a hapless civilian driver is not much better than one of your own guys sacrificing himself. But that's a minor detail, and a detail we won't find out until long after the war, if ever.

Though they likely have been doing reconnaissance on the bridge for some time.
We'll have to see how long it burns to see how much structural damage it sustains to know when trains can cross again.

The fire has been put out based on footage on the scene. I saw something in twitter that Russia is promising the railway traffic to resume already today.

 

[ZiprHead]

Surprised it hasn't happened sooner.

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[TV and credit cards]

Though they likely have been doing reconnaissance on the bridge for some time.
We'll have to see how long it burns to see how much structural damage it sustains to know when trains can cross again.

The fire has been put out based on footage on the scene. I saw something in twitter that Russia is promising the railway traffic to resume already today.

I read that too. I don't know much about bridge inspections but I would have thought they couldn't do this so fast. A similar incident in Olympia, WA only allowed for vehicle and light truck traffic after 24 hours.

Too much info about bridge inspections for fire.

 

[Patooka]

I think the best description I heard of this was, "The Kerch bridge initiated a tactical redeployment so it could regroup with the Moskva for a counter offensive."

The amount of time it takes for Putin to unfuck this situation will be a telling indication on how the next few months will play out.

 

[steve_bank]

View attachment 40619

Vlad, let's go to the widow, there is something I want you to see....

 

[steve_bank]

For those of you wondering how the fuck tiny Ukraine can do so well against Russia. It's because of intel. USA is feeding Ukraine top notch military intel. While Russians are creatively being blocked from gathering intel. Ukraine can see the Russians coming, while the Russians can't see the Ukrainian coming.

Space, the unseen frontier in the war in Ukraine

It is the first war where commercial space capabilities have played a significant role, a US general says.

www.bbc.com

I also recommend reading up on how Ukraine manages to deny Russia air superiority. I've found a few great articles on that. Basically, Ukraine can't dominate the skies themselves, because they're outgunned. But they can use mobile US anti-air platforms making it extremely dangerous to fly over Ukraine.

Ukraine can't really do much offensively with their planes, because they're so outgunned. To an extreme degree. Russia has more than ten times as many combat aircraft than Ukraine.

US Air Force needs to embrace air denial as a core mission

Though the impulse to hold tight to the air superiority paradigm may be strong, the future of air warfare is denial.

www.defensenews.com

Russia's main intel-gathering methods is via air. If they're denied the ability to use planes to gather data, they're operating in the dark. Russia has satellites that can be used to gather data, but they're nowhere near what they need to be to be of much use militarily.
USA has satellites that are so good that they can see anything anywhere in Ukraine, in real time. And Ukraine gets this information immediately. They can and are used as missile guiding tools to make precision hits anywhere in occupied territory.

The combination of denial of air superiority and satellite guided missiles, in practice means that Ukraine has the same benefits as if they'd had air superiority. They can pound Russia into the ground with missile. Russia can't run and hide because Ukraine can see them at all times. Ukraine just needs to stay mobile and Russia has no idea what they're aiming at. That's why Russian cassualities are so extremely high, while Ukrainian casualties aren't.

If you wonder how this one thing can do such a big difference. The first Balkan (1912) war was won by Turkey because they had one gunboat with a longer range than any of the Greeks and Bulgarians. They just parked the ship off the coast and kept relentlessly firing 24/7 at targets on land. Over time they were just whittled away to nothing. They couldn't take boats and go out to take out the boat because none of their canons (even on land) had anything that could even dent the hull.

The extreme effectiveness over modern satellite guided missiles is making USA very nervous. It suggests a shift in military doctrine. Since new satellites will keep being launched. They will get better and better. Sooner or later any little shit nation will have the satellite capacity USA now enjoys. This will have an enormous impact on how future wars will be fought. If anything of any size can be taken out easily, we'll be talking about armies of ninjas fighting each other backed up by expendable battle droids. This will change the deciding factors of war. And most importantly negate a lot of the toys USA today uses to dominate the world militarily.

Undoubtedly. I don't know the current state ofthe art, but I doubt the Russians can do much without the Brits and Americans seeing it.

And motivation. Barbarossa in reverese, The Russians were willing to fight to the death to protect hearth and home. The Germans were not well equped in Russia and suffered supply chain problems.

 

[Hermit]

The Kerch bridge explosion was done with a truck. Proof

 

[marc]

Another theory, probably wrong but I like it

Spoiler: Possible weapon from Japan

 

[Copernicus]

For those of you wondering how the fuck tiny Ukraine can do so well against Russia. It's because of intel. USA is feeding Ukraine top notch military intel. While Russians are creatively being blocked from gathering intel. Ukraine can see the Russians coming, while the Russians can't see the Ukrainian coming.

Space, the unseen frontier in the war in Ukraine

It is the first war where commercial space capabilities have played a significant role, a US general says.

www.bbc.com

I also recommend reading up on how Ukraine manages to deny Russia air superiority. I've found a few great articles on that. Basically, Ukraine can't dominate the skies themselves, because they're outgunned. But they can use mobile US anti-air platforms making it extremely dangerous to fly over Ukraine.

Ukraine can't really do much offensively with their planes, because they're so outgunned. To an extreme degree. Russia has more than ten times as many combat aircraft than Ukraine.

US Air Force needs to embrace air denial as a core mission

Though the impulse to hold tight to the air superiority paradigm may be strong, the future of air warfare is denial.

www.defensenews.com

Russia's main intel-gathering methods is via air. If they're denied the ability to use planes to gather data, they're operating in the dark. Russia has satellites that can be used to gather data, but they're nowhere near what they need to be to be of much use militarily.
USA has satellites that are so good that they can see anything anywhere in Ukraine, in real time. And Ukraine gets this information immediately. They can and are used as missile guiding tools to make precision hits anywhere in occupied territory.

The combination of denial of air superiority and satellite guided missiles, in practice means that Ukraine has the same benefits as if they'd had air superiority. They can pound Russia into the ground with missile. Russia can't run and hide because Ukraine can see them at all times. Ukraine just needs to stay mobile and Russia has no idea what they're aiming at. That's why Russian cassualities are so extremely high, while Ukrainian casualties aren't.

If you wonder how this one thing can do such a big difference. The first Balkan (1912) war was won by Turkey because they had one gunboat with a longer range than any of the Greeks and Bulgarians. They just parked the ship off the coast and kept relentlessly firing 24/7 at targets on land. Over time they were just whittled away to nothing. They couldn't take boats and go out to take out the boat because none of their canons (even on land) had anything that could even dent the hull.

The extreme effectiveness over modern satellite guided missiles is making USA very nervous. It suggests a shift in military doctrine. Since new satellites will keep being launched. They will get better and better. Sooner or later any little shit nation will have the satellite capacity USA now enjoys. This will have an enormous impact on how future wars will be fought. If anything of any size can be taken out easily, we'll be talking about armies of ninjas fighting each other backed up by expendable battle droids. This will change the deciding factors of war. And most importantly negate a lot of the toys USA today uses to dominate the world militarily.

Undoubtedly. I don't know the current state ofthe art, but I doubt the Russians can do much without the Brits and Americans seeing it.

And motivation. Barbarossa in reverese, The Russians were willing to fight to the death to protect hearth and home. The Germans were not well equped in Russia and suffered supply chain problems.

Also of great importance is the well-developed use of AWACS by the US and NATO, which have been in use for many years now. Russia has some similar capabilities, but not as robust. The  Beriev A-50 only took its first test flight in February.

 

[Jarhyn]

The air superiority discussion is as prescient as any.

It is true that military satellite imagery and Intel, battlefield overwatch drones, and other such range finders and range extenders is going to change the face of modern warfare, now that the world has entered into a conflict where they have been revealed publicly.

Armor and classic logistics are pretty much over, against any country that HAS precision medium-long range weaponry.

 

[Jayjay]

Trains can pass now:



In the video it's shown that it's just one track though. The other one is still blocked by the burned out tanker cars. Big morale victory for Ukraine, but won't impact military logistics much.

 

[Elixir]

Big morale victory for Ukraine, but won't impact military logistics much.

That’s why they should make it an “Every Friday” thing.

.

 

[TomC]

Big morale victory for Ukraine, but won't impact military logistics much.

That’s why they should make it an “Every Friday” thing.

.

I generally don't post in this thread, because I am very ignorant concerning almost everything. I don't know about the history, people, or even the geography. I certainly don't understand military strategy and such.

But wouldn't a 12 mile long bridge, so crucial to the Russian's war goals, be easily taken out by whoever took out Nordstream?

Whoever that was hasn't bombed the bridge. Why not? The most obvious answer to me, who doesn't claim to know anything else, is that whoever bombed Nordstream was on Putin's side of this. Or that bridge would have been taken out weeks ago.
Tom

 

[Copernicus]

In the video it's shown that it's just one track though. The other one is still blocked by the burned out tanker cars. Big morale victory for Ukraine, but won't impact military logistics much.

That's hard to say. It will degrade the flow of men, weapons, and supplies to Crimea, which is a major staging ground for reinforcing the Kherson front. Attrition is not just about reducing the flow of troops, and Russian troops appear to be suffering most from lack of supplies. Now is when the Russians are in most desperate need of reinforcements and resupply. The loss of the fuel train certainly won't help, and one has to wonder whether that line will be operating at reduced capacity for some time. Certainly, traffic on the highway bridge will be seriously affected.