How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Jarhyn]

There are still some sane people in US.

Standard appeasement strategy. My interpretation is that he sees the Ukraine and Russia, both, as a mess and picking sides is stupid. He has a macro perspective and looks at it from American interests. He wants peace and stability at any price and thinks giving into Russia's demands is the best scenario, from a long term economic stand point.

Which might be true. But sometimes you just need to man up and punch the bully. It's just a nice feeling to live in a world where we don't let megalomanic dictators get away with bullying it's neighbours. I think death is preferable to being a pussy.

I listened to it for 10 minutes. Got bored! Does he say what he thinks should be reasonable peace agreement?

He thinks that the risk of escalation is so high that we just let Putin have Ukraine. He also pointed out that Ukraine broke the Minsk agreement. But the Minsk agreement was based on the idea that the Russian separatists were ethnic Russian Ukrainians. The agreement stipulated that both sides pull out of trying to tip the scales to either side, and we let Ukraine sort this out on their own. But the Russian separatists are a complete fantasy. The Russian separatists in Donbas and Luhansk were always just a front for a Russian financed take-over. So Ukraine wisely ignored the Minsk agreement, since Russia was.

His perspective isn't right or wrong. His perspective is what is the most beneficial for long term economic development. Well... almost anything is better than war for long term economic development.

I disagree. Giving in to bullies is how you end up with a bully problem.

Inviting bullying into existence with tacit acceptance is the invitation of evil into our universe to be reified. It creates a  gradient which creates least action and this can never not provide the energy by which evil is given moment across the system.

I find the perspective of "creating least-action which favors the emergence of bullying is wrong."

When the world sees that bullying on this scale just doesn't work anymore. Giving in to bullies bears a math not dissimilar from a ratchet: it lets them stop expending effort to hold the ground while they gear up for the next pump of the handle.

 

[DrZoidberg]

Ukraine is still not winning the war. They've had a couple of weeks of good fortune. Following half a year of bad fortune.

Time is on Russias side. Since Russia has ten times of everything they will win a war of attrition.

The west is extremely pro-Ukraine. So our press is filled with hopeful underdog stories. We like to cheer when it goes well for Ukraine. So that's the kind of spin the stories we see have.

I think the situation for Ukraine is a lot worse than what Western press is willing to admit. This may very well end with Ukraine accepting the loss of occupied land

 

[Harry Bosch]

Ukraine is still not winning the war. They've had a couple of weeks of good fortune. Following half a year of bad fortune.

Time is on Russias side. Since Russia has ten times of everything they will win a war of attrition.

The west is extremely pro-Ukraine. So our press is filled with hopeful underdog stories. We like to cheer when it goes well for Ukraine. So that's the kind of spin the stories we see have.

I think the situation for Ukraine is a lot worse than what Western press is willing to admit. This may very well end with Ukraine accepting the loss of occupied land

Okay Jay! (Just kidding.) Jay says the same thing. And there is a lot of wisdom here. Yes, it's a lot worse. Yes, we are getting all the good news from Ukraine. Not much of the bad. However, the Ukrainians have no choice. They aren't just fighting for their land, but they are fighting for their existence. It is a choice for Russia. Russia is running out of arms. Their allies are dwindling. And their population is getting tired of the fight. The war will end someday. And it appears that Ukraine will remain mostly sovereign. But I think that the future will be much brighter for Ukraine than Russia. Western aid will prop up Ukraine. Who will invest in Russia? China? Sure but at great advantage to China. Russia has lost very valuable trade with Europe. They are experiencing a huge brain drain. Long term, Russia is screwed.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Ukraine isn't winning. But neither is Russia. And Russian control of areas isn't what it was a bit ago. Ukraine has suffered a great deal of loss, and Putin appears to be escalating post bridge attack and is also having Belarus step in.

These people have a history of enduring. And winter is coming. It'll impact the people Russian has sent to die for the cause just as much as the Ukrainians... who are fighting for their nation's existence. This is a very WWI / Great War feel where no one is winning and everyone directly involved is losing. The dreadful reality is that neither side has to win when this is all finished. Ukraine might maintain its borders (or not). But neither side comes out of this better for what happened.

 

[Jayjay]

There are still some sane people in US.

Standard appeasement strategy. My interpretation is that he sees the Ukraine and Russia, both, as a mess and picking sides is stupid. He has a macro perspective and looks at it from American interests. He wants peace and stability at any price and thinks giving into Russia's demands is the best scenario, from a long term economic stand point.

Which might be true. But sometimes you just need to man up and punch the bully. It's just a nice feeling to live in a world where we don't let megalomanic dictators get away with bullying it's neighbours. I think death is preferable to being a pussy.

I listened to it for 10 minutes. Got bored! Does he say what he thinks should be reasonable peace agreement?

No. He seems to be under the delusion that if US tells Russia that NATO will not expand, somehow Russia would withdraw and end the war. Or that it would be satisfied with the land that it has already conquered. There is absolutely no thought give to Ukraine's sovereignty or what Ukrainians might want, he considers this a proxy war between Russia and US only.

 

[Jayjay]

There are still some sane people in US.

Standard appeasement strategy. My interpretation is that he sees the Ukraine and Russia, both, as a mess and picking sides is stupid. He has a macro perspective and looks at it from American interests. He wants peace and stability at any price and thinks giving into Russia's demands is the best scenario, from a long term economic stand point.

Which might be true. But sometimes you just need to man up and punch the bully. It's just a nice feeling to live in a world where we don't let megalomanic dictators get away with bullying it's neighbours. I think death is preferable to being a pussy.

I listened to it for 10 minutes. Got bored! Does he say what he thinks should be reasonable peace agreement?

He thinks that the risk of escalation is so high that we just let Putin have Ukraine. He also pointed out that Ukraine broke the Minsk agreement. But the Minsk agreement was based on the idea that the Russian separatists were ethnic Russian Ukrainians. The agreement stipulated that both sides pull out of trying to tip the scales to either side, and we let Ukraine sort this out on their own. But the Russian separatists are a complete fantasy. The Russian separatists in Donbas and Luhansk were always just a front for a Russian financed take-over. So Ukraine wisely ignored the Minsk agreement, since Russia was.

The thing abut Minsk 2 that should be remembered was that at the time Ukraine was losing in Debaltseve. So Ukraine was under pressure to sign the treaty, or it would lose more land. So they did.

But surprise motherfucker, the separatists didn't stop fighting after the agreements were signed. They continued to push and took Debaltseve anyway. And after that Ukraine was kind of in a rut, they couldn't reverse the treaty because they would just lose more, and so they just licked their wounds. The separatists have since broken the treaty anyway and said that it's no longer applicable. Russia has never agreed to it, claiming that it's not even a party to the deal. Ukraine can hardly be blamed alone for dragging their feet implementing the political portion of Minsk agreements.

The failure of the Minsk 1 & 2 should be an indication that they were shit agreements, not that we need another one.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

There are still some sane people in US.

Standard appeasement strategy. My interpretation is that he sees the Ukraine and Russia, both, as a mess and picking sides is stupid. He has a macro perspective and looks at it from American interests. He wants peace and stability at any price and thinks giving into Russia's demands is the best scenario, from a long term economic stand point.

Which might be true. But sometimes you just need to man up and punch the bully. It's just a nice feeling to live in a world where we don't let megalomanic dictators get away with bullying it's neighbours. I think death is preferable to being a pussy.

I listened to it for 10 minutes. Got bored! Does he say what he thinks should be reasonable peace agreement?

No. He seems to be under the delusion that if US tells Russia that NATO will not expand, somehow Russia would withdraw and end the war. Or that it would be satisfied with the land that it has already conquered. There is absolutely no thought give to Ukraine's sovereignty or what Ukrainians might want, he considers this a proxy war between Russia and US only.

That is weird seeing that proxy wars involve third parties... and NATO is the only third party here... Russia is directly involved in Ukraine.

 

[TSwizzle]

Ukraine is still not winning the war. They've had a couple of weeks of good fortune. Following half a year of bad fortune.

Time is on Russias side. Since Russia has ten times of everything they will win a war of attrition.

The west is extremely pro-Ukraine. So our press is filled with hopeful underdog stories. We like to cheer when it goes well for Ukraine. So that's the kind of spin the stories we see have.

I think the situation for Ukraine is a lot worse than what Western press is willing to admit. This may very well end with Ukraine accepting the loss of occupied land

Nothing a few more billions of dollars of "aid" can't fix.

 

[Jayjay]

Ukraine is still not winning the war. They've had a couple of weeks of good fortune. Following half a year of bad fortune.

Time is on Russias side. Since Russia has ten times of everything they will win a war of attrition.

The west is extremely pro-Ukraine. So our press is filled with hopeful underdog stories. We like to cheer when it goes well for Ukraine. So that's the kind of spin the stories we see have.

I think the situation for Ukraine is a lot worse than what Western press is willing to admit. This may very well end with Ukraine accepting the loss of occupied land

I agree. We have a tendency to be complacent. Russia has turned its whole economy into a war mode. Despite sanctions and side of western economies, we need to keep in mind that most people and politicians in the west consider Ukraine as either a hobby or a distraction from more politically important matters like inflation or price of energy. We give only a small fraction what Russia can muster, relatively speaking. Furthermore, most of the aid is coming from the US, because there's a "tragedy of the commons" and a freeloader problem in Europe. Everybody thinks someone else, i.e. the United States, will fix the problem.

There are still a lot of things in Russia's favor:

1. Ongoing mobilization. This is likely to get worse as more people are drafted, trained, and get experience in the front. Sheer numbers will allow Russia to rotate its troops and let them rest.

2. Artillery advantage. Ukraine has more accurate weapons, but Russia has more artillery pieces, more shells, and a very good system of using it with drone-assisted targeting. Ukraine's answer so far has been to constrain the logistics, but has no good overall counter-battery solution.

3. Political upheavals in the west: Italy is going to have a right-wing government with Putin's buddies Matteo Salvini and Silvio Berlusconi. While the new PM is not openly pro-Russian, there may be more problems in EU that distract from Ukraine. Also this year in US midterms republicans are likely to take back either the house or the senate or both. 70-80% of military aid to Ukraine comes from the US.

4. Winter in Europe, and Ukraine, may reduce will to continue fighting. The weather also makes it harder for Ukraine to progress and gives Russia time to build up defenses and continue the "filtration" measures in the occupied territories.

5. Destruction of Ukraine's civilian energy infrastructure. Russia has already hit power plants and will probably continue to do so.

6. The Belarus front. While Lukashenka doesn't have an army to speak of, he has given free reign to Russia to use Belarussian territory as a launching pad. With more troops at its disposal, Russia may again activate the northern front, if not for any other reason than to tie part of Ukraine's troops to defend it so that they have less attack power in the East and South.

X. And finally, the nuclear threat.

(I'm probably also forgetting something.)

(EDIT: Added #6.)

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Ukraine is still not winning the war. They've had a couple of weeks of good fortune. Following half a year of bad fortune.

Time is on Russias side. Since Russia has ten times of everything they will win a war of attrition.

The west is extremely pro-Ukraine. So our press is filled with hopeful underdog stories. We like to cheer when it goes well for Ukraine. So that's the kind of spin the stories we see have.

I think the situation for Ukraine is a lot worse than what Western press is willing to admit. This may very well end with Ukraine accepting the loss of occupied land

Nothing a few more billions of dollars of "aid" can't fix.

TSwizzle, President Biden loves to breathe oxygen. Hunter too!


...just sayin'...

 

[Harry Bosch]

Ukraine is still not winning the war. They've had a couple of weeks of good fortune. Following half a year of bad fortune.

Time is on Russias side. Since Russia has ten times of everything they will win a war of attrition.

The west is extremely pro-Ukraine. So our press is filled with hopeful underdog stories. We like to cheer when it goes well for Ukraine. So that's the kind of spin the stories we see have.

I think the situation for Ukraine is a lot worse than what Western press is willing to admit. This may very well end with Ukraine accepting the loss of occupied land

Nothing a few more billions of dollars of "aid" can't fix.

TSwizzle, President Biden loves to breathe oxygen. Hunter too!


...just sayin'...

Wait a sec, isn't Hunter the president? So confusing....!

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Ukraine is still not winning the war. They've had a couple of weeks of good fortune. Following half a year of bad fortune.

Time is on Russias side. Since Russia has ten times of everything they will win a war of attrition.

The west is extremely pro-Ukraine. So our press is filled with hopeful underdog stories. We like to cheer when it goes well for Ukraine. So that's the kind of spin the stories we see have.

I think the situation for Ukraine is a lot worse than what Western press is willing to admit. This may very well end with Ukraine accepting the loss of occupied land

I agree. We have a tendency to be complacent. Russia has turned its whole economy into a war mode. Despite sanctions and side of western economies, we need to keep in mind that most people and politicians in the west consider Ukraine as either a hobby or a distraction from more politically important matters like inflation or price of energy. We give only a small fraction what Russia can muster, relatively speaking. Furthermore, most of the aid is coming from the US, because there's a "tragedy of the commons" and a freeloader problem in Europe. Everybody thinks someone else, i.e. the United States, will fix the problem.

There are still a lot of things in Russia's favor:

1. Ongoing mobilization. This is likely to get worse as more people are drafted, trained, and get experience in the front. Sheer numbers will allow Russia to rotate its troops and let them rest.

2. Artillery advantage. Ukraine has more accurate weapons, but Russia has more artillery pieces, more shells, and a very good system of using it with drone-assisted targeting. Ukraine's answer so far has been to constrain the logistics, but has no good overall counter-battery solution.

3. Political upheavals in the west: Italy is going to have a right-wing government with Putin's buddies Matteo Salvini and Silvio Berlusconi. While the new PM is not openly pro-Russian, there may be more problems in EU that distract from Ukraine. Also this year in US midterms republicans are likely to take back either the house or the senate or both. 70-80% of military aid to Ukraine comes from the US.

4. Winter in Europe, and Ukraine, may reduce will to continue fighting. The weather also makes it harder for Ukraine to progress and gives Russia time to build up defenses and continue the "filtration" measures in the occupied territories.

5. Destruction of Ukraine's civilian energy infrastructure. Russia has already hit power plants and will probably continue to do so.

6. The Belarus front. While Lukashenka doesn't have an army to speak of, he has given free reign to Russia to use Belarussian territory as a launching pad. With more troops at its disposal, Russia may again activate the northern front, if not for any other reason than to tie part of Ukraine's troops to defend it so that they have less attack power in the East and South.

X. And finally, the nuclear threat.

(I'm probably also forgetting something.)

(EDIT: Added #6.)

Which in my view means Ukraine needs to escalate. Hell, if they're going to lose their country anyway because the west is a bunch of pussies afraid to defend democracy with whatever it takes they've got nothing to lose.

 

[TSwizzle]

Which in my view means Ukraine needs to escalate.

LOL, the only way the Ukraine escalates is if the USA lobs even more billions of dollars of "aid".

 

[Jayjay]

Which in my view means Ukraine needs to escalate. Hell, if they're going to lose their country anyway because the west is a bunch of pussies afraid to defend democracy with whatever it takes they've got nothing to lose.

Escalate how?

 

[Harry Bosch]

Which in my view means Ukraine needs to escalate. Hell, if they're going to lose their country anyway because the west is a bunch of pussies afraid to defend democracy with whatever it takes they've got nothing to lose.

Escalate how?

The only escalation that I see now is for Biden to send longer distance missiles.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Uh oh! Even China is getting tired of Russian imperialism.

MSN

China calls for de-escalation of violence in Ukraine and stresses importance of respecting sovereignty.

​

Another key Russian alley, India, is also calling for a cessation of hostilities:

‘Deeply concerned’: India calls for cessation of hostilities as Russia bombs Kyiv

Russia fired cruise missiles at cities across Ukraine during the morning rush hour on Monday, killing several civilians and knocking out power supply

www.hindustantimes.com

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Which in my view means Ukraine needs to escalate. Hell, if they're going to lose their country anyway because the west is a bunch of pussies afraid to defend democracy with whatever it takes they've got nothing to lose.

Escalate how?

The only escalation that I see now is for Biden to send longer distance missiles.

That would be a good start. Zelensky can also announce that if anymore missile strikes occur within Ukraine against non military targets or in Kiev then he will reciprocate by bombing inside Russia and perhaps Moscow. Put the ball squarely in Poostain's court on the world stage of public opinion.

 

[Jayjay]

Which in my view means Ukraine needs to escalate. Hell, if they're going to lose their country anyway because the west is a bunch of pussies afraid to defend democracy with whatever it takes they've got nothing to lose.

Escalate how?

The only escalation that I see now is for Biden to send longer distance missiles.

That would be a good start. Zelensky can also announce that if anymore missile strikes occur within Ukraine against non military targets or in Kiev then he will reciprocate by bombing inside Russia and perhaps Moscow. Put the ball squarely in Poostain's court on the world stage of public opinion.

I think that's exactly the kind of thuggish mafia boss attitude that Putin is exhibiting. Striking civilian targets in Russia, or even openly threatening to do so would turn public opinion against Ukraine. Also Ukraine doesn't have the capability to do it effectively anyway. Ukraine can't win by playing Putin's game.

We know from Middle East and elsewhere that this is the kind of escalation of violence that only causes grudges and prolongs conflicts.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Ukraine is still not winning the war. They've had a couple of weeks of good fortune. Following half a year of bad fortune.

Time is on Russias side. Since Russia has ten times of everything they will win a war of attrition.

The west is extremely pro-Ukraine. So our press is filled with hopeful underdog stories. We like to cheer when it goes well for Ukraine. So that's the kind of spin the stories we see have.

I think the situation for Ukraine is a lot worse than what Western press is willing to admit. This may very well end with Ukraine accepting the loss of occupied land

Ten times of what, is what I’d like to know. Bodies to throw on the heap? They’re using 50 year old weapons now. Issuing jackshit besides said weapon to their troops whom they cannot adequately train. They're asking what’s left of their friends for munitions. Requiring regional and local governments to kick in with their budgets. Everything I've read from VOA to RFE/RL to DW to CEPA to ISW to CSIS to the Kyiv Independent to Rand to Reuters to The Insider to Just Security, and a few others like BBC and AP indicates Russia is hurting in pretty much every aspect except bodies, nukes, and Chem/Bio.
Could you or Jayjay provide a reference or two so I can expand my knowledge on the subject? Because right now I'm scratching my head wondering where y'all are getting some of this info from.

 

[Copernicus]

I agree with Jayjay that reciprocating Putin's violence and cruelty can only be a losing game for both sides instead of just Russia. There is no need to worsen the cycle of violence and revenge by creating a pool of Russian martyrs with loved ones thirsting for revenge. Right now, Russia is pursuing an unwinnable war that will forever be a stain on its history. Trying to give Russia a taste of its own medicine will only prolong the war and possibly escalate beyond Ukraine to the rest of the world. The only role for the West right now is to support Ukraine in its struggle and to help repair and rebuild it.