How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Jayjay]

Russia got pushed back. Captured land and towns taken back.

I really do not see where Russia has the initiative.

Initiative equates to motivation. Ukraine is fighting for hearth and home much as the Russians were in WWII. What is private Ivan conscripted and thrown into the front fighting for?

You have to think the averge Russian soldier realizes the position he is in.

Look at DeepState map for example, generally considered reliable, from past month or so. Where are the Ukrainian gains? I see Russia making slight advances, and more importantly, trying to do so very hard. ISW and other sources I regularly try to follow tell the same story. Russia attacking, Ukraine repelling attacks.

Motivation alone doesn't win wars. You need weapons to do that.

 

[Jayjay]

Russia still has the initiative

How do you figure that considering Russia has steadily been losing ground since June? Ukraine has very much been dictating the tempo of this conflict.

Ukraine has picked up the low-hanging fruit. And June is an arbitrary point: it was when Ukraine got the HIMARS and was able to start disrupting Russian logistics. If you look back at February, clearly Russia has only gained ground. The war has had its ebbs and flows, but right now, Russia is the one who's attacking and determining the pace, and Ukraine's on the defense. Since Kherson, Ukraine's made no progress.

Ukraine's not getting enough weapons to stem the tide. Russia on the other hand is still ramping up.

It does not appear to me that Ukraine is trying to make progress on the battle front. The battle line favors the defense, Ukraine is taking advantage of that while focusing it's efforts on hollowing out the Russian forces so they can pull another breakthrough like the one they already pulled that caused the Russian lines to fall way back. Look what happened before--bypass the strong points, the troops retreat rather than get cut off and the retreat path becomes a shooting gallery.

Ukraine managed to do that a few times. But the conditions which allowed it to happen aren't there anymore.

And frankly, the idea that Ukraine is just executing a clever ruse and biding its time sounds to me exactly like barbos's excuses about Russia never losing anything but simply "deciding to leave". To an outside observer under fog of war, this clever ruse is indistinguishable from losing.

 

[Jayjay]

The U.S. just took the handcuffs off Ukraine's desire to strike at Russian military targets inside Russia that support the invasion. That is a major game changer. Ukraine has already been doing this but now it is doing it with support from the U.S. and NATO. It's about time.

The United States will no longer forbid Ukraine from executing drone strikes in Russian territory. The Ukrainian military has already used unmanned aircraft to attack Russian airbases, and Washington has now given Kyiv its approval to hit Russia inside its own borders more extensively. The United States had previously ruled against Ukrainian strikes in Russia for fear of escalating the war.

Putin Should Be Scared: Ukraine Is Set to Start Hitting Russian Territory

Of course this draws more threats from Russian Hitler, nuclear first strike in response, etc. More threats, threats that are never backed up. Really no one wants war and Russian Hitler has been banking on the fact that so long as he threatens a wider conflict NATO will back down. And he's been right. Nice to see that finally change. At least if the war does widen we can know we did everything to keep it from widening short of sacrificing Ukraine and the legacy of Democracy to Russian Hitler. Seems Churchill has been screaming from his grave and we finally heard him.

I don't think there ever were "handcuffs", except for HIMARS specifically. Not sure what the policy was on M777. And I doubt US has changed its policy about not providing satellite targeting data inside Russia.

So, nothing has really changed. Ukraine has executed drone strikes in Russian territory before, an the limiting factor has never been lack of US permission, but limited capability to carry out those attacks.

Personally, I think US should provide Ukraine with ATACMS or at least Extended Range GMLRS rockets, but continue with the limitation that they should not be used on Russian territory. There are plenty of targets within the occupied territory and Crimea that are currently out of Ukraine's reach. The restriction could be relaxed later to include bases that fire missiles on civilian territories, if needed, but my understanding is that most missiles are fired from airplanes and ships, not fixed bases on the ground.

 

[Copernicus]

Personally, I think US should provide Ukraine with ATACMS or at least Extended Range GMLRS rockets, but continue with the limitation that they should not be used on Russian territory. There are plenty of targets within the occupied territory and Crimea that are currently out of Ukraine's reach. The restriction could be relaxed later to include bases that fire missiles on civilian territories, if needed, but my understanding is that most missiles are fired from airplanes and ships, not fixed bases on the ground.

However, the ships and airplanes come from bases. The ships come primarily from Sevastopol, which is in occupied Ukrainian territory but was previously allowed to be under Russian control by Ukraine. That agreement has been nullified by the illegal invasion of its territory.

 

[Jayjay]

Personally, I think US should provide Ukraine with ATACMS or at least Extended Range GMLRS rockets, but continue with the limitation that they should not be used on Russian territory. There are plenty of targets within the occupied territory and Crimea that are currently out of Ukraine's reach. The restriction could be relaxed later to include bases that fire missiles on civilian territories, if needed, but my understanding is that most missiles are fired from airplanes and ships, not fixed bases on the ground.

However, the ships and airplanes come from bases. The ships come primarily from Sevastopol, which is in occupied Ukrainian territory but was previously allowed to be under Russian control by Ukraine. That agreement has been nullified by the illegal invasion of its territory.

Crimea's never been off-limits by US decree, though it has been beyond the range of its weapons. When asked, I think it was Milley or Blinken who explicitly answered that "Crimea is Ukraine" when asked about it.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

I'm not going to link the articles, only provide the headlines so that a person like myself, skeptical though I am about anything I read or hear, can become lulled into believing that Russian Hitler and his war are on the brink of failure.

Putin Risks 'Financial Predicament' as War Drains Russia's Budget: ISW​

Belarusian Soldiers Fight for Ukraine, Look to Oust Putin Ally at Home​

US poised to send Patriot missile defense system to Ukraine: Reports​

Putin’s Troops and Tanks Are Dying In Ukraine (Soon Crimea Will Be Lost)​

Russians against the Putin regime band together to fight for Ukraine​

Revealed: How Ukraine Used Neptune Missiles to Sink Russia’s Navy Flagship​

Russian Commander Suggests Nukes as 'Only' Option to Win War​

Video: Watch a Russian Su-25 Try to Land with No Landing Gear​

Russia’s New T-14 Armata Tank Won’t Save Putin In Ukraine​

ISW: Russian forces appear to lack sufficient infrastructure to support their troops in Crimea​

I could add twenty more headlines. There are a few that paint a less rosy picture but you get the idea. I have read articles where the Ukrainian troops are getting hit pretty terribly with artillery but today pretty much all the headlines are rosy to generic.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Meanwhile, reports are coming in Russia is scouring warehouses and depots for munitions. And is sending 40 year old munjtions to Ukraine. Reports are that there are lots of dud artillery shells. Obviously, Russia did not reckon with Pootie's military operation being a long, har fought war.

 

[Jayjay]

... pretty much all the headlines are rosy to generic.

That's the problem. We're being fed too optimistic an outlook, because that's what everyone wants to hear. That this war will soon be won and we can go back to normal.

Wrong. Russia's throwing everything they've got at Ukraine. Meanwhile we in the west are being lulled into thinking we can just half-ass it and Ukraine's doing fine.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

... pretty much all the headlines are rosy to generic.

That's the problem. We're being fed too optimistic an outlook, because that's what everyone wants to hear. That this war will soon be won and we can go back to normal.

Wrong. Russia's throwing everything they've got at Ukraine. Meanwhile we in the west are being lulled into thinking we can just half-ass it and Ukraine's doing fine.

I don't think it's as bad as you infer. I always remind myself that when Russian Hitler says anything it's the KGB talking. He obviously thought Ukraine would fall just like Crimea, and when the KGB is wrong it never admits failure.

 

[Harry Bosch]

It was reported that the Wagner group suffered a great loss 2 days ago after getting hit by HIMRARS:

Ukraine regional official says strike hits Wagner group headquarters

A senior official in eastern Ukraine said on Sunday that Ukrainian forces had attacked a hotel where members of Russia's private Wagner military group were based, killing many of them.

www.reuters.com

There are rumors that the hit on Wagner is far worse than is being reported. Good. I do have empathy for the Russian soldiers being killed (a little empathy - they are the invaders afterall). Many of them are in Ukraine against their will. I have zero feelings for Wagner. As far as I'm concerned, they are the mucusus that feeds pond scum. They are trained glory professional trained soldiers with a choice killing people in a country where they are not welcome.

 

[Patooka]

Ukraine has picked up the low-hanging fruit. And June is an arbitrary point: it was when Ukraine got the HIMARS and was able to start disrupting Russian logistics. If you look back at February, clearly Russia has only gained ground. The war has had its ebbs and flows, but right now, Russia is the one who's attacking and determining the pace, and Ukraine's on the defense. Since Kherson, Ukraine's made no progress.

By that logic, Napoleon still had the initiative at Waterloo. Most people would disagree.

Ukraine's not getting enough weapons to stem the tide. Russia on the other hand is still ramping up (emphasis mine)

With the exception of barbos' posts, I have seen no indication that what you just said is happening.

The mobilization is still going on. More troops are being sent to the front, with better training. I think Russian MoD itself said that about 140k or so of the 300k have been sent to the front. If true, then the other half is still on their way. And that's still short of the million or so that they are prepared to mobilize.

If Russia is still slowly mobilizing, that's hardly the seizing the initiative that you are saying is occurring.

Same with military production. That's clearly been ramped up since the summer, with laws in place to threaten military contractors and workers with prison time if they fail to fulfill orders. I realize this is a case of "beatings will continue until morale improves", but there's no reason to think Russia hasn't been gearing up for a long for months now.

There's plenty of reason to think that. If such equipment was readily available for Russia it would have been deployed long before now. Nobody buys ammunition from North Korea if they are flush with gear. It's insane to think that fuel, replacement tubes for artillery and cold weather will magically appear for the Russian military in a couple of weeks. Their logistics are so fucked they make Ukraine's supply issues (which are very real before you reply, I'm not diminishing them) seem benign in comparison.

I understand the dangers of seeing things with rose tinted glasses, but I'm completely baffled why you are so negative towards Ukraine's abilities and so unconditionally optimistic about Russia's chances. You were pessimistic before Ukraine liberated Kherson. The success at Kharkiv was luck apparently. And there is literally no indication three divisions of T-90s are suddenly going to materialize to reinforce the invaders.

The most reliable way to predict the future is look at past similar occurrences and extrapolate from there. Everything that has happened since January suggests Russia shot their load when most of their VDV units got wiped out at Kyiv. That's not saying this war will end by Christmas but as I said I am completely mystified why you are so insistent on thinking Ukraine will suddenly collapse in effectiveness and Russia will suddenly be the big scary bad everyone thought they were back in 2021. Nothing reported suggests either is likely to come to pass soon.

 

[crazyfingers]

Exclusive: US finalizing plans to send Patriot missile defense system to Ukraine | CNN Politics

The Biden administration is finalizing plans to send the Patriot missile defense system to Ukraine that could be announced as soon as this week, according to two US officials and a senior administration official.

www.cnn.com

If CNN is correct, Ukraine will soon have Patriot missiles to defend against Russian missile attacks.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Russia still has the initiative

How do you figure that considering Russia has steadily been losing ground since June? Ukraine has very much been dictating the tempo of this conflict.

Ukraine has picked up the low-hanging fruit. And June is an arbitrary point: it was when Ukraine got the HIMARS and was able to start disrupting Russian logistics. If you look back at February, clearly Russia has only gained ground. The war has had its ebbs and flows, but right now, Russia is the one who's attacking and determining the pace, and Ukraine's on the defense. Since Kherson, Ukraine's made no progress.

Ukraine's not getting enough weapons to stem the tide. Russia on the other hand is still ramping up.

It does not appear to me that Ukraine is trying to make progress on the battle front. The battle line favors the defense, Ukraine is taking advantage of that while focusing it's efforts on hollowing out the Russian forces so they can pull another breakthrough like the one they already pulled that caused the Russian lines to fall way back. Look what happened before--bypass the strong points, the troops retreat rather than get cut off and the retreat path becomes a shooting gallery.

Ukraine managed to do that a few times. But the conditions which allowed it to happen aren't there anymore.

And frankly, the idea that Ukraine is just executing a clever ruse and biding its time sounds to me exactly like barbos's excuses about Russia never losing anything but simply "deciding to leave". To an outside observer under fog of war, this clever ruse is indistinguishable from losing.

I didn't say "ruse". They're doing deep strike while letting Russia take the losses of being on offense--until they judge Russia has weakened itself too much in some area. Russia can see what's happening but that doesn't mean they have an effective counter.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Meanwhile, reports are coming in Russia is scouring warehouses and depots for munitions. And is sending 40 year old munjtions to Ukraine. Reports are that there are lots of dud artillery shells. Obviously, Russia did not reckon with Pootie's military operation being a long, har fought war.

We already had the evidence of them buying shells from North Korea. That makes it clear their supply situation is dire.

 

[ZiprHead]

Exclusive: US finalizing plans to send Patriot missile defense system to Ukraine | CNN Politics

The Biden administration is finalizing plans to send the Patriot missile defense system to Ukraine that could be announced as soon as this week, according to two US officials and a senior administration official.

www.cnn.com

If CNN is correct, Ukraine will soon have Patriot missiles to defend against Russian missile attacks.

I understand running a Patriot battery is quite technical and takes a lot of training. Although I suppose training of Ukrainians on Patriots could have begun some time ago.

 

[Patooka]

Exclusive: US finalizing plans to send Patriot missile defense system to Ukraine | CNN Politics

The Biden administration is finalizing plans to send the Patriot missile defense system to Ukraine that could be announced as soon as this week, according to two US officials and a senior administration official.

www.cnn.com

If CNN is correct, Ukraine will soon have Patriot missiles to defend against Russian missile attacks.

I understand running a Patriot battery is quite technical and takes a lot of training. Although I suppose training of Ukrainians on Patriots could have begun some time ago.

Romania uses them. I would have thought CRAMS would have been a more useful system to send to Ukraine however. Or surplus S-300s.

 

[SLD]

Patriots may be pointless, if this article is true.

Russia Could Run Out Of Reliable Rockets, Artillery Shells Early Next Year, Pentagon Says

Dwindling stockpiles is likely forcing Russian troops to use older, “degraded” ammo, a senior U.S. military officer said.

www.defenseone.com

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Exclusive: US finalizing plans to send Patriot missile defense system to Ukraine | CNN Politics

The Biden administration is finalizing plans to send the Patriot missile defense system to Ukraine that could be announced as soon as this week, according to two US officials and a senior administration official.

www.cnn.com

If CNN is correct, Ukraine will soon have Patriot missiles to defend against Russian missile attacks.

I understand running a Patriot battery is quite technical and takes a lot of training. Although I suppose training of Ukrainians on Patriots could have begun some time ago.

I was a fire control officer in the Improved Hawk, the forerunner to Patriot. I can't imagine it being any more difficult. Ukrainians seem to be remarkably motivated and capable and ought to master it like any other system. And there is most likely simulator training at the fire control level which is the ultimate training tool.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

I understand the dangers of seeing things with rose tinted glasses, but I'm completely baffled why you are so negative towards Ukraine's abilities and so unconditionally optimistic about Russia's chances. You were pessimistic before Ukraine liberated Kherson. The success at Kharkiv was luck apparently. And there is literally no indication three divisions of T-90s are suddenly going to materialize to reinforce the invaders.

For all its success, Allies in WW2 endured their share of catastrophic tactical defeats. Most of those defeats produced hard learned lessons that the Ukrainians have taken to heart. Those failures were primarily based on failures of intelligence, needless to say, and failure to heed actual intelligence. Ukraine has performed admirably in this respect and hasn't allowed itself to be outsmarted. I actually think their stalemating in Bakhmut is pretty smart.

I think the best source of news from where I sit is the BBC. If I log in and don't see any Ukraine news I know there isn't any Ukraine news unlike other sources which continuously generate opinion pieces and new stories based on old information.

 

[steve_bank]

I do not see anyone looking through rose colored glases.

Months back they could have made the mistake of overextending themselves when Ukraine began making gains and taking back land. They have been disciplined and have not gotten carried away wit themselves.

Paraphrasing General Giap in the VN war leader of the North Vietnam military said they have been fighting foreseers for a century and are prepared to fight another century. The north was motivated and willing to sacrifice supplied by Russia.

The Ukrainians aiad from the frst day they were not going to give up. Not just leadership. citizens. Civilians armed themseves and took training.

I'd say the same reason Israel survived and prevailed in three wars of anihilation that on paper shou have crushed Israel.