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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

I don't see what Russia can do to escalate. Other than nukes.

Russia has been defeated or at Least staLEmated by Ukaraine. A dIrect confct with NATO would be a humiliating defeatTfor Putin
 
I don't see what Russia can do to escalate. Other than nukes.

Russia has been defeated or at Least staLEmated by Ukaraine. A dIrect confct with NATO would be a humiliating defeatTfor Putin
Russia is an evil fucking empire that I don't expect to stop. I think that the next step for them is to force Belarus into attacking Ukraine.
 
So apparently Russia has issued a warning to the U.S. that it should not send Patriot Missile batteries to Ukraine and saying it would lead to unintended consequences.

Reminds me of Japan in 1940/41. wonder if they’ll attack Pearl Harbor.
 
I admit from the jump that I'm dumb when it comes to Russia VS The West. I just don't get why so much beef when both are capitalist countries. Granted one is for private capitalisms and the other for state capitalisms; it's all capitalism so what's the deal?!??! Maybe back in the old Mother Russia days (before Father Russia aka Putin on the Ritz) the beef made more sense since it was all out communism in Russia. Russia is not exactly what it used to be so wassup? What's worse is it's not like America doesn't have state capitalisms with all the bail out money at the ready to pay for the bullshit private capitalists get themselves into.
 
I just don't get why so much beef when both are capitalist countries.
“The West” isn’t a country.
Granted one is for private capitalisms and the other for state capitalisms;
There are varying degrees of capitalism going on in the Countries of “The West”.
Russia is full blown kleptocratic oligarchy. The kleptocrats will resort to the worst behavior possible when anything threatens their power or property.
I think Derec would love it there - assuming he could be one of them.
 
I admit from the jump that I'm dumb when it comes to Russia VS The West. I just don't get why so much beef when both are capitalist countries. Granted one is for private capitalisms and the other for state capitalisms; it's all capitalism so what's the deal?!??! Maybe back in the old Mother Russia days (before Father Russia aka Putin on the Ritz) the beef made more sense since it was all out communism in Russia. Russia is not exactly what it used to be so wassup? What's worse is it's not like America doesn't have state capitalisms with all the bail out money at the ready to pay for the bullshit private capitalists get themselves into.
I don't think that capitalism has anything to do with it. One country is a dictatorship; the other is not. I think that the real reason why Russia attacked is that its dictatorship wants absolute control of its border countries; and really wants absolute control of the sale of oil/gas/minerals to Europe. Russia is incredibly predictable. To me, the more interesting question is why has the west and the US totally behind Ukraine? I don't think it has anything to do with capitalism! In fact, if Ukraine folded today, and its people thrown in gulags; Wall Street would jump 20%. War is bad for business today.
 
Sebastopol in Crimea is Russia's main naval base in the Black Sea. Russia had a long term lease there from Ukraine. Now, there is no going back to pre-Russian invasion era agreements. That is now Rusia's main priority. Russia now MUST retain control of areas East of Crimea to hold Crimea, and to do that hold the Donbas et al. Russia cannot and will not sign a peace agreement that won't give them that. Ukraine cannot give Russia these because Russia cannot be trusted to not in the future continue this war. To do so would allow Russia to strangle Ukraine.

The future of this conflict lies here. NATO is no longer asleep. Russia cannot take Ukraine by main force. The clock is ticking for the Russian economy. And Russia cannot supply enough high tech material to fight a modern war.
Russia is already using kamikaze drones at this point. It has already lost the ability to fight a sustainable modern incursion. But as long as Iran can build them, they can get them. Russia's economic collapse has failed to occur. They managed to stabilize the price of oil to a decent price point as India and China love cheaper energy.

The ability to end this hinged on China and India, and that didn't happen. So Russia will just keep lobbing exploding rocks and flying drones into the ground. They are nothing but a nuclear powered bully. They are laying to waste the nation they allegedly were trying to save.
 
the real reason why Russia attacked is that its dictatorship wants absolute control of its border countries; and really wants absolute control of the sale of oil/gas/minerals to Europe.
That, and perhaps even more important, the food production capability.
Ukraine would be a source of wealth for the oligarchs that would dwarf anything they could further wring out of their own population.
 
I admit from the jump that I'm dumb when it comes to Russia VS The West. I just don't get why so much beef when both are capitalist countries. Granted one is for private capitalisms and the other for state capitalisms; it's all capitalism so what's the deal?!??! Maybe back in the old Mother Russia days (before Father Russia aka Putin on the Ritz) the beef made more sense since it was all out communism in Russia. Russia is not exactly what it used to be so wassup? What's worse is it's not like America doesn't have state capitalisms with all the bail out money at the ready to pay for the bullshit private capitalists get themselves into.
Really wasn't so much about Capitalism, but control. After WWII Russia had control of a lot of eastern Europe, and was working to inspire 'communist' revolutions in other countries so bring them under its influence. 'The West' was working to counter that, plus their own work to bring smaller countries under their influence (like overthrowing Iran's government to get a 'western friendly' dictator put in place)

Plus you had people in the US government using the 'Red Scare' fear of communists for local power grabs (like how republicans today scare people about 'gun grabbin leftists', gay people, China, etc.) except then they were able to destroy people's careers by accusing them of being communist sympathizers. While Russia has long kept their people afraid of attacks from NATO. You need enemies, real or imaginary, to keep people distracted from how they are getting screwed over, and they were able to use each other for that for decades.

That is my opinion anyway
 
Along with the Patriot battery (should be plural), the US will also be supplying Ukraine with JDAMS. JDAMS convert dumb bombs into smart ones with what looks like a GPS vest strapped around the bomb a new set of tail fins. I've seen some impressive weapon system modifications in my day, this one is pretty cool.
Now if they could just make something for Trump supporters.


*State Dept Disclaimer, "The US is not encouraging Ukraine to strike beyond its borders ;)".
 
I admit from the jump that I'm dumb when it comes to Russia VS The West. I just don't get why so much beef when both are capitalist countries. Granted one is for private capitalisms and the other for state capitalisms; it's all capitalism so what's the deal?!??! Maybe back in the old Mother Russia days (before Father Russia aka Putin on the Ritz) the beef made more sense since it was all out communism in Russia. Russia is not exactly what it used to be so wassup? What's worse is it's not like America doesn't have state capitalisms with all the bail out money at the ready to pay for the bullshit private capitalists get themselves into.
Russia went from an aristocracy to a revolution. The revolution and communism failed miserably to meet basic needs of the people.

Putin blames the west for the colapse of the Soviet Union which he thinks was a glorious system, a word power. An empire in the ol sense.

Stalin made a non agressin [act with Hitler in exchmnge for part of Poland and Finland I belive. Hiter invaded Russia. As did Napolaen.

I expect there is a long standing antipathy for western Europe aka the west.

The eastern European states including Ukraine were seen by the Soviets as a buffer from the west.

From the accounts utin was an intelligence gannt in East Germany. His wife was East German. When East Germanny collpsed apparntly Putin was traumatized. He's carried a grudge against the west ever since.

When he took power hsi publicly stated goal was restoration of the Soviet empire.

If he had taken Ukraine without resurgence and NATO went soft Poland and otherr Russian border states would have clearly been on his agenda.

Both Russia and China have a deep cultuarl need to be seen as separate powers from America and Europe and as equals to be reckoned with. Both Russia and China carry it to a ridiculous extreme, IMO.

China is doing the same thing as Russia. They annexed Tibet claiming it as always part of China. China claims the right to redraw martime boundaries in the South China sea. but nobody accepts it. They have ongoing shooting battles with India over border disputes.
 
the real reason why Russia attacked is that its dictatorship wants absolute control of its border countries; and really wants absolute control of the sale of oil/gas/minerals to Europe.
That, and perhaps even more important, the food production capability.
Ukraine would be a source of wealth for the oligarchs that would dwarf anything they could further wring out of their own population.
The problem with that hypothesis is that the oligarchs aren't the ones calling the shots in Russia anymore, and they didn't start the war. Most of them would probably be in favor of leaving Ukraine, if it didn't have immediate consequences for their own health.

Besides, in general oligarchs want stability. When you're filthy rich, you don't have a financial impetus for starting incredibly costly wars. For that, you need an ideology.
 
Ukraine would be a source of wealth for the oligarchs that would dwarf anything they could further wring out of their own population.
The problem with that hypothesis is that the oligarchs aren't the ones calling the shots in Russia anymore, and they didn't start the war. Most of them would probably be in favor of leaving Ukraine, if it didn't have immediate consequences for their own health.

Besides, in general oligarchs want stability. When you're filthy rich, you don't have a financial impetus for starting incredibly costly wars. For that, you need an ideology.
Yeah, I should have said “would have been”, if it had been the promised 3-day military exercise.
 
Yeah, I should have said “would have been”, if it had been the promised 3-day military exercise.
But we've had repeated assurances that everything is going according to plan. It must be terrible living in a gangster state where you are just a piece of shit owned by the boss.
 
Interesting article on how Wagner conducts its operations near Bakhmut:


Wagner uses convicts with minimal training or even military experience. The volunteers receive as little as three weeks training. In Butusov’s words: ‘It should be recognized as an advantage of “Wagner” that the PMK command plans combat operations taking into account the real capabilities of its personnel. The tasks are set as primitive as possible.’ This is one of the main factors for ‘success’, albeit success is relative when the cost is hundreds of casualties.

(...)

Wagner makes ‘massive’ use of 152mm artillery, tanks firing in direct or indirect fire mode, and Lancet kamikaze drones to soften a defensive position. Some attacks may be supported by an air strike or attack aviation. ‘Armoured vehicles [tanks/AFVs] in the vast majority of cases do not accompany the infantry, [but] protect themselves from damage, and work from a distance.’

(...)

These are costly infantry attacks in the style of World War I. The all arms assault familiar to a British soldier is rarely witnessed. The reason why the tank was invented is lost.

(...)

Wagner reprises the Russian penal battalions of the war. High losses are accepted. More convicts can always be recruited (according to Russian researchers ‘the probable number of prisoners recruited for the war in the Russian Federation is up to 23,000 people’). There are no social or political consequences (‘It’s either prisoners or your sons’). The dead are not accounted or even recovered. The maimed chance their luck with compensation payments that are not always paid. Butusov explains: ‘Losses do not reduce the combat effectiveness of units, as commanders and staffs of units, weapons operators, intelligence and control remain a permanent composition that is not expended in assault actions.’

(...)

Like the Red Army penal battalions, discipline is punitive. ’Independent withdrawal is allowed only for the wounded. Voluntary departure without a command or without injury is punishable by shooting on the spot.’
And finally an admission that while Wagner's tactics are simple, Ukraine has some shortcomings too in terms of coordination:
The withdrawal of our fighters during another attack by the “Wagners” in many cases, which were recorded on drones, is related to the lack of understanding of the tactical situation in the conditions of a long battle, and not directly to the pressure of the enemy. We have the ability to keep a significant number of drones in the air, but often their capabilities are not used because the data does not reach our fighters on the battlefield, or does not reach firepower calculations, and the information is not implemented. Manoeuvre contact battles require high-quality interaction. When you study how the “Wagnerians” managed to get into one or another position, the shortcomings of the organization of intelligence and management always become obvious.’
 
Along with the Patriot battery (should be plural), the US will also be supplying Ukraine with JDAMS. JDAMS convert dumb bombs into smart ones with what looks like a GPS vest strapped around the bomb a new set of tail fins. I've seen some impressive weapon system modifications in my day, this one is pretty cool.
Now if they could just make something for Trump supporters.


*State Dept Disclaimer, "The US is not encouraging Ukraine to strike beyond its borders ;)".
Hard for them to use a JDAM, though--you have to go up into the SAM envelope to drop one. If you'll go high enough you can stay away from the actual target, though--they can be dropped by a plane that's going vertical and then turning back.
 
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