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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

VOA said:
Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov warned Russian citizens in a video address Friday, that Russia's leadership is preparing a new wave of mobilization and plans to close the border within a week.

"I know for a fact that you have about one week left before you still have any choice," Reznikov said, speaking in Russian.

"In early January, the Russian authorities will close the borders to men, declare martial law, and begin another wave of mobilization. Borders will also be closed in Belarus," he said.

Reznikov also said that this latest wave of conscription "concerns residents of large Russian cities." So far, Moscow and St. Petersburg have largely been shielded from the Kremlin's mobilization drives, while ethnic minorities in other Russian regions have been found to be disproportionately called up.
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and
VOA said:
Russian authorities announced Friday that soldiers and state employees deployed in Ukraine will be exempt from income tax, in the latest effort to encourage support of its military operation there, Agency France-Presse.

The decree also grants them the right to receive "rewards and gifts" if they are of "a humanitarian character" and received as part of the military operation in Ukraine.
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This last statement, that's Russiaspeak for looting.
 
Harry Bosch said:
barbos said:
Harry Bosch said:
barbos said:
Bronzeage said:
Russia is losing men and material faster than either can be replaced.
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Nope. NATO/Ukraine are losing 10 soldiers while Russia loses 1.
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If so, why does the war continue? Why does your side continue to lose?
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My side is not losing, your side is.
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If true, why does the war continue? 10 months of war. How much longer will your country continue to loot Ukraine?
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Not looting, bombing. As long as it is necessary. Same way you did with Yugoslavia.
 
barbos said:
Not looting, bombing. As long as it is necessary.
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You mean "as long as Iran will keep giving us stuff to bomb them with".
Hard to not notice that you went from "we're not bombing" to "we are bombing and intend to keep bombing".
Kinda like "there will be no invasion" changed to "The West invaded Russia!"
Can't you come up with one thing - just ONE THING that turns out to be true?
 
barbos said:
Harry Bosch said:
barbos said:
Harry Bosch said:
barbos said:
Bronzeage said:
Russia is losing men and material faster than either can be replaced.
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Nope. NATO/Ukraine are losing 10 soldiers while Russia loses 1.
Click to expand...
If so, why does the war continue? Why does your side continue to lose?
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My side is not losing, your side is.
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If true, why does the war continue? 10 months of war. How much longer will your country continue to loot Ukraine?
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Not looting, bombing. As long as it is necessary. Same way you did with Yugoslavia.
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Necessary for what? Your side has lost Ukraine. They will be part of NATO someday. And NATO is stronger than ever. Thanks to your side. The war will someday and your side will be much weaker.
 
Harry Bosch said:
Necessary for what? Your side has lost Ukraine. They will be part of NATO someday.
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Necessary for regime change, unconditional surrender, full occupation, etc.
Ukraine will never be part of NATO, maybe Western Ukraine when it's occupied by Poland, but Ukraine will never be part of NATO. NATO dissolution is more likely.
 
barbos said:
Harry Bosch said:
Necessary for what? Your side has lost Ukraine. They will be part of NATO someday.
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Necessary for regime change, unconditional surrender, full occupation, etc.
Ukraine will never be part of NATO, maybe Western Ukraine when it's occupied by Poland, but Ukraine will never be part of NATO. NATO dissolution is more likely.
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I see only a couple solutions possible. Your side returns home. You withdraw from Ukrainian land. Status quo returns. Or two, both sides negotiate. Russia keeps done Ukrainian land. In exchange Ukraine gets some security guarantees. The issue is here is that they won’t trust Russia based on your set off. Russian word is garbage. The only guarantee possible that I can see is one provided by NATO. Tell me another way for peace?
 
Harry Bosch said:
In exchange Ukraine gets some security guarantees.
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That's where THAT idea goes off the rails. Who is going to issue that guarantee? Certainly not Russia, since as you pointed out their "guarantees" have been proven worthless. NATO only issues guarantees to its members, and Ukraine isn't one.
The way this ends is this; Putin dies, is killed or replaced by the oligarchs whose fortunes are being decimated, Ukraine gets all its territory back and Russia gets to stop being a proxy State of Iran.
 
Elixir said:
Harry Bosch said:
In exchange Ukraine gets some security guarantees.
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That's where THAT idea goes off the rails. Who is going to issue that guarantee? Certainly not Russia, since as you pointed out their "guarantees" have been proven worthless. NATO only issues guarantees to its members, and Ukraine isn't one.
The way this ends is this; Putin dies, is killed or replaced by the oligarchs whose fortunes are being decimated, Ukraine gets all its territory back and Russia gets to stop being a proxy State of Iran.
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I agree with you. I see no chance of a peace with Russia. But we need to go everything we can to support Ukraine and let them decide.
 
Harry Bosch said:
Elixir said:
Harry Bosch said:
In exchange Ukraine gets some security guarantees.
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That's where THAT idea goes off the rails. Who is going to issue that guarantee? Certainly not Russia, since as you pointed out their "guarantees" have been proven worthless. NATO only issues guarantees to its members, and Ukraine isn't one.
The way this ends is this; Putin dies, is killed or replaced by the oligarchs whose fortunes are being decimated, Ukraine gets all its territory back and Russia gets to stop being a proxy State of Iran.
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I agree with you. I see no chance of a peace with Russia. But we need to go everything we can to support Ukraine and let them decide.
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Yup. We should go all-in for Ukraine. Pootey isn't going to risk turning the Kremlin into a sheet of glass.
 
It certainly has been very embarrassing for Russia to have to beg Iran for war capability. I’ve been wondering how Russian people are reacting to that. Do they know that the world is watching them use Iranian materiel because they can’t create their own? As we watch Russia become Iran’s puppet, we wonder how they manage that humiliation. Iran. Really.
 
TomC said:
Elixir said:
Pootey isn't going to risk turning the Kremlin into a sheet of glass.
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I wish I were so confident.

How do you think WWII would have ended if Hitler had nukes?
Tom
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I think that would have depended on whether his opponents also had nukes.
Do you think he'd have gone setting them off willy nilly if he was subject to reciprocal treatment?
 
Elixir said:
TomC said:
Elixir said:
Pootey isn't going to risk turning the Kremlin into a sheet of glass.
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I wish I were so confident.

How do you think WWII would have ended if Hitler had nukes?
Tom
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I think that would have depended on whether his opponents also had nukes.
Do you think he'd have gone setting them off willy nilly if he was subject to reciprocal treatment?
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Right before he committed suicide? Yes. I'm confident he would have done it.
Tom
 
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