How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Cheerful Charlie]

Russia is taking Soledar, slowly. It took them a month. They advanced 3 kilometers, and took a village of 10,000 people. Thay are stymied at Bakhmut, population 70,000. Beyond here they are facing towns collectively of 300k. Russian casualties at Soledar were heavy.

Some mention is being made about Russia's massive drop off by 75% of artillery fire. But lack of munitions is not all of that. Artillery barrels do have a limited lifespan. Eventually barrel erosion means loss of accuracy. That is probably becoming a problem for Russia.

Russian soldiers burn out their guns

Russian soldiers will burn out their artillery barrels and tank main guns by the end of the year due to the Ukraine war. Russian Armed Forces already facing wear and tear on their guns due to the high intensity of the fighting in Ukraine, most of which were manufactured back in the last century...

defence-blog.com

 

[Copernicus]

Vladimir Putin berates his Minister of Industries over his failure to obtain aircraft production contracts. The minister seemed to send a message that budget constraints are responsible for the delay, although he didn't quite come out and say that. The real message here is that the public knows that Russian industry is having trouble supplying its military with equipment. That makes the government look weak and incompetent, so here we have the image of a man who is fully in charge and ordering a foot-dragger to get the contracts in place "within a month". If things don't pick up (and the minister did not sound confident), then the blame will fall on subordinates, not the big boss.

Vladimir Putin rebukes deputy prime minister in live broadcast​

 

[TV and credit cards]

Britian to send twelve Challenger tanks to Ukraine. Poland will send Leopard tanks "within the framework of an international coalition." I just looked up international: "two or more" nations. I then looked up coalition: again, "two or more" groups. Looks like you prerequisite is met Poland. Send in the tanks.
While Olaf stands around like a teenage girl trying to decide what to wear.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Britian to send twelve Challenger tanks to Ukraine. Poland will send Leopard tanks "within the framework of an international coalition." I just looked up international: "two or more" nations. I then looked up coalition: again, "two or more" groups. Looks like you prerequisite is met Poland. Send in the tanks.
While Olaf stands around like a teenage girl trying to decide what to wear.

I agree with this. We need to start sending more weapons to Ukraine. More offensive weapons. Tanks. Better air defense. We need to consider sending better jets. And we need to rearm. All countries in the west need to increase defense spending. Russia has to be stopped now, or else we'll be in war with them for a generation.

 

[SLD]

Britian to send twelve Challenger tanks to Ukraine. Poland will send Leopard tanks "within the framework of an international coalition." I just looked up international: "two or more" nations. I then looked up coalition: again, "two or more" groups. Looks like you prerequisite is met Poland. Send in the tanks.
While Olaf stands around like a teenage girl trying to decide what to wear.

I agree with this. We need to start sending more weapons to Ukraine. More offensive weapons. Tanks. Better air defense. We need to consider sending better jets. And we need to rearm. All countries in the west need to increase defense spending. Russia has to be stopped now, or else we'll be in war with them for a generation.

It would save a huge amount of defense spending if Russia were to fail. Europe and America could cut their defense spending for a generation without worry. China would be deterred from invading Taiwan. The lesson that offensive war doesn’t work would ensure peace in this world for 100 years. We need to give Ukraine everything it needs.

 

[Jayjay]

Patriots and tanks are going to take a while to ramp up.

In the meantime, I think this is the most exciting development on Ukrainian defense front:



Ukrainian "Shark" fixed-wing UAV. Sure, it's a "marketing video" and actual performance remains to be seen. But this is a capability that Ukraine has been missing for a long time. Russia has it's Orlan-10 and Orlan-30 UAVs that can correct artillery and spot high value targets behind enemy lines, and they have a lot of them. Furthermore, they're integrated into the artillery units so that when something is spotted, the artillery crew can respond within minutes.

If the shark can give similar ability to Ukrainian artillery, it would be excellent. The important thing to understand is that these birds will be shot down, they need to be easy to manufacture and there have to be a lot of them. They need to be resilient to signal jamming (or maybe accompanied by loitering munitions that lock in on jammers). And the Ukrainian artillery crews have to be able to use the information quickly. In theory, this would be even more useful for Ukraine that has high-accuracy weapons like GMLRS rockets or Excalibur shells, that can kill the target with one shot if they have the right coordinate, but it would also be useful in increasing the accuracy of traditional artillery by allowing them to correct fire like Russia does.

I think the western allies should make sure that Ukraine has the necessary components to keep building these UAVs. And actually, the same is true of other types of civilian equipment as well. You can see in twitter and elsewhere fund raisers where Ukrainian soldiers are gathering money to buy commercial quadcopters for their own use. That seems incredibly inefficient. Why couldn't a government or governments in NATO offer to buy, say, 10 thousand of these drones in bulk straight from the manufacturer? Or offer them long-term contracts to increase production and deliver them to Ukraine?

 

[Harry Bosch]

More nonsense coming from Russia today:

Putin Ally Issues Stark Warning Over Possibility of Nuclear War in Europe

A Putler stooge threatened nuclear war unless Ukraine and Russia agree to detente. But then here is the nonsense: "...to start the process of detente again, for which it is necessary to take into account the interests of all parties," he said. "But for this, it is necessary to recognize politically that Russia has interests, that they must be taken into account in the construction of a new detente." "And most importantly, play honestly, do not deceive anyone, do not let in fog and do not try to make money on someone else's blood," Medvedchuk added. "But if the world political system is not capable of elementary decency, blinded by pride and its own mercantile interests, then even more difficult times await us."

To me the above is a lot of fog! But Putler appears to only be open to peace if it takes into account Russia's interests. But the problem is that Russia's interests (total Ukranian surrender) conflicts with Ukraine's interests (freedom). So why would Ukraine agree to that?

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

It's just more Russian propaganda and lies meant to disrupt and keep us off balance. The best thing is to ignore 100% of this drivel.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

It's just more Russian propaganda and lies meant to disrupt and keep us off balance. The best thing is to ignore 100% of this drivel.

This. He keeps ratting his nuclear sabre to try to get the world to listen, but he doesn't dare draw it. Not only would the world react horribly but there's a good chance it's so rusty that it wouldn't do anything. Imagine the egg-on-face that Pootin would have if Ukraine finds a smashed H-bomb in Kyiv. (And note that Ukraine has no way to fake this as they don't have any access to weapons grade fissionables.)

 

[Jayjay]

Putin's nuclear saber rattling is probably a bluff. But if it isn't, I think it'll be a two-step process. First there is a relatively small yield "tactical" nuclear weapon used on Ukraine's soil. It might happen if it starts to look like Ukraine can win back its land conventionally. In this case Putin's gamble would be that NATO would rather back down than escalate, and the big nuclear weapons are still kept as a deterrent against NATO.

This would leave US and NATO in a position where they either retaliate or give in to Putin's nuclear blackmail. The second option is unthinkable. Giving in to blackmail just invites more blackmail, and it would be a huge blow to NATO's credibility. So what are we to do? I doubt there would be a nuclear response against a small tactical nuke. Rather, there would be a massive conventional response. No-Fly zone in Ukraine, destruction of Russia's airfields in Crimea and maybe even near border in Russia, immediate response against all sites that fire missiles to Ukraine's territory. In essence, NATO would enter the war finally and make sure Ukraine wins, and Russia gets nothing out of Ukraine.

At this point, Putin would have to make a choice on the second level nuclear threat: whether to start a real nuclear war against the west, or just cut his losses. If he does push the button, it wouldn't be the end of the world (but it would be nasty), but it would certainly be the end of Russian empire.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Putin's nuclear saber rattling is probably a bluff. But if it isn't, I think it'll be a two-step process. First there is a relatively small yield "tactical" nuclear weapon used on Ukraine's soil. It might happen if it starts to look like Ukraine can win back its land conventionally. In this case Putin's gamble would be that NATO would rather back down than escalate, and the big nuclear weapons are still kept as a deterrent against NATO.

This would leave US and NATO in a position where they either retaliate or give in to Putin's nuclear blackmail. The second option is unthinkable. Giving in to blackmail just invites more blackmail, and it would be a huge blow to NATO's credibility. So what are we to do? I doubt there would be a nuclear response against a small tactical nuke. Rather, there would be a massive conventional response. No-Fly zone in Ukraine, destruction of Russia's airfields in Crimea and maybe even near border in Russia, immediate response against all sites that fire missiles to Ukraine's territory. In essence, NATO would enter the war finally and make sure Ukraine wins, and Russia gets nothing out of Ukraine.

At this point, Putin would have to make a choice on the second level nuclear threat: whether to start a real nuclear war against the west, or just cut his losses. If he does push the button, it wouldn't be the end of the world (but it would be nasty), but it would certainly be the end of Russian empire.

Sounds like you might be channeling Japanese strategy prior WW2. Get the U.S. to sue for peace because they're afraid of Japan and don't have the will to fight. How did that work? Fact is Poostain is more of a threat than are any weapons he can bring to the field. We all know this but are willing to let him and his shithole country to its fate, so long as he leaves other countries to their fate. That's basically the deal. So nothing coming out of his mouth really matters, at least not at this point.

And there is no Russian empire, except the one that lives in Poostain's brain.

 

[Copernicus]

Playing nuclear chicken with Putin and then guessing which side feels that it has to back down. That seems like a game well worth playing, doesn't it? Which side has a bigger ego? NATO or the guy who staked his entire life on conquering Ukraine?

 

[SLD]

Former Wagner commander flees to Norway and seeks asylum | CNN

A former commander in Russia's Wagner private military company has fled to Norway and is seeking asylum after crossing that country's arctic border, according to Norwegian police and a Russian activist.

www.cnn.com

interesting article about a Wagner defector to Norway. He talks about how they were just cannon fodder, war crimes, how they just declare people missing instead of KIA so they don’t have to pay the insurance claim. Stunning behavior. Morale is pathetic even in Wagner groups. I am curious about how he managed to cross the border in winter. That’s gotta be tough. Regardless, the group sounds worse than a WWII punishment battalion.

 

[Patooka]

Putin's nuclear saber rattling is probably a bluff. But if it isn't, I think it'll be a two-step process. First there is a relatively small yield "tactical" nuclear weapon used on Ukraine's soil. It might happen if it starts to look like Ukraine can win back its land conventionally. In this case Putin's gamble would be that NATO would rather back down than escalate, and the big nuclear weapons are still kept as a deterrent against NATO.

This would leave US and NATO in a position where they either retaliate or give in to Putin's nuclear blackmail. The second option is unthinkable. Giving in to blackmail just invites more blackmail, and it would be a huge blow to NATO's credibility. So what are we to do? I doubt there would be a nuclear response against a small tactical nuke. Rather, there would be a massive conventional response. No-Fly zone in Ukraine, destruction of Russia's airfields in Crimea and maybe even near border in Russia, immediate response against all sites that fire missiles to Ukraine's territory. In essence, NATO would enter the war finally and make sure Ukraine wins, and Russia gets nothing out of Ukraine.

At this point, Putin would have to make a choice on the second level nuclear threat: whether to start a real nuclear war against the west, or just cut his losses. If he does push the button, it wouldn't be the end of the world (but it would be nasty), but it would certainly be the end of Russian empire.

If Putin drops a single nuke he's lost. Nations like Pakistan, India, China, Israel and Iran would all scream, "You fucking dumb cunt! You did the quiet thing out loud you stupid prick!" and cease any interaction. Russia would be well and truly alone instead of the "hurting under sanctions right now but still doing under the table deals using Kazakhstan as an intermediary" situation they are currently in. But as always, Beau explains this better than I ever could;



And I stand by my previous assertion that Russia's nuclear stockpile isn't as awesome as everyone believes.

 

[TV and credit cards]

The Swirling Vortex of Russia’s Economy

As expected, Russia cannot meet its budgetary needs. With Urals crude selling at $52.48 versus $80.82 a barrel for benchmark Brent, Russia is having to dip into its rainy day fund. I believe this cap on Russian oil is Janet Yellen’s baby.

I sometimes wonder if this is a goal in slow walking arms to Ukraine and prolonging this bloody conflict, that the west wants to ensure the Russian economy is good and broken first. This would be a cold calculation that could not be publicly admitted to.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Playing nuclear chicken with Putin and then guessing which side feels that it has to back down. That seems like a game well worth playing, doesn't it? Which side has a bigger ego? NATO or the guy who staked his entire life on conquering Ukraine?

We are not playing "nuclear chicken" with Russia. We've have been incredibly restrained in keeping back offensive weapons from Ukraine. All of our efforts are to deter Russian advances and encourage them to return home. We're not exercising our ego when trying to stop these deaths. It is Russia who constantly threatens nuclear war.

 

[Harry Bosch]

The Swirling Vortex of Russia’s Economy

As expected, Russia cannot meet its budgetary needs. With Urals crude selling at $52.48 versus $80.82 a barrel for benchmark Brent, Russia is having to dip into its rainy day fund. I believe this cap on Russian oil is Janet Yellen’s baby.

I sometimes wonder if this is a goal in slow walking arms to Ukraine and prolonging this bloody conflict, that the west wants to ensure the Russian economy is good and broken first. This would be a cold calculation that could not be publicly admitted to.

I agree with you that we've been slow walking the arms that Ukraine needs. But I think that it's been more about waiting to see if Ukraine would survive (we don't want our arms falling to the Russians) and not wanting to encourage nuclear war. But I definitely believe that we need to go balls out to help Ukraine. If we don't now, Russia will be invading and killing civilians for the next 50 years.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Putin's nuclear saber rattling is probably a bluff. But if it isn't, I think it'll be a two-step process. First there is a relatively small yield "tactical" nuclear weapon used on Ukraine's soil. It might happen if it starts to look like Ukraine can win back its land conventionally. In this case Putin's gamble would be that NATO would rather back down than escalate, and the big nuclear weapons are still kept as a deterrent against NATO.

This would leave US and NATO in a position where they either retaliate or give in to Putin's nuclear blackmail. The second option is unthinkable. Giving in to blackmail just invites more blackmail, and it would be a huge blow to NATO's credibility. So what are we to do? I doubt there would be a nuclear response against a small tactical nuke. Rather, there would be a massive conventional response. No-Fly zone in Ukraine, destruction of Russia's airfields in Crimea and maybe even near border in Russia, immediate response against all sites that fire missiles to Ukraine's territory. In essence, NATO would enter the war finally and make sure Ukraine wins, and Russia gets nothing out of Ukraine.

At this point, Putin would have to make a choice on the second level nuclear threat: whether to start a real nuclear war against the west, or just cut his losses. If he does push the button, it wouldn't be the end of the world (but it would be nasty), but it would certainly be the end of Russian empire.

I think there is one other option, but would depend on India and China stepping away from Russia. If they aren't buying Russia's oil, this devastates Russia's economy. Granted, there would still need to be a major step up militarily in Ukraine.

 

[TV and credit cards]

The Swirling Vortex of Russia’s Economy

As expected, Russia cannot meet its budgetary needs. With Urals crude selling at $52.48 versus $80.82 a barrel for benchmark Brent, Russia is having to dip into its rainy day fund. I believe this cap on Russian oil is Janet Yellen’s baby.

I sometimes wonder if this is a goal in slow walking arms to Ukraine and prolonging this bloody conflict, that the west wants to ensure the Russian economy is good and broken first. This would be a cold calculation that could not be publicly admitted to.

I agree with you that we've been slow walking the arms that Ukraine needs. But I think that it's been more about waiting to see if Ukraine would survive (we don't want our arms falling to the Russians) and not wanting to encourage nuclear war. But I definitely believe that we need to go balls out to help Ukraine. If we don't now, Russia will be invading and killing civilians for the next 50 years.

Ukraine has shown their mettle. Their survival now is largely dependent upon us.
And what did we make all these high tech weapons for if not to use them? Sure, the tech falling into the wrong hands is a concern that needs to be weighed regarding how trustworthy the ally is we are giving the weapons to. I think Ukraine passes that test. Then there is the issue of will the weapon be immobilized should it have to be abandoned. There are destruction procedures for personnel to carry out, smashing electronics, etc., making the high tech part inoperable. As far as any US tech falling into Russian hands, given the sanctions, how long would it be before they could even reverse engineer and manufacture what they have seized? By the time they could, it would be old tech. Russian capabilities have largely been reduced to dumb warfare, completely mechanical in nature.

Too much of what we give is to defend. Not enough to destroy the beast. It's like we are giving them shields but no spears. In such a scenario, it gives quantity of forces more advantage over quality.

 

[Harry Bosch]

The Swirling Vortex of Russia’s Economy

As expected, Russia cannot meet its budgetary needs. With Urals crude selling at $52.48 versus $80.82 a barrel for benchmark Brent, Russia is having to dip into its rainy day fund. I believe this cap on Russian oil is Janet Yellen’s baby.

I sometimes wonder if this is a goal in slow walking arms to Ukraine and prolonging this bloody conflict, that the west wants to ensure the Russian economy is good and broken first. This would be a cold calculation that could not be publicly admitted to.

I agree with you that we've been slow walking the arms that Ukraine needs. But I think that it's been more about waiting to see if Ukraine would survive (we don't want our arms falling to the Russians) and not wanting to encourage nuclear war. But I definitely believe that we need to go balls out to help Ukraine. If we don't now, Russia will be invading and killing civilians for the next 50 years.

Ukraine has shown their mettle. Their survival now is largely dependent upon us.
And what did we make all these high tech weapons for if not to use them? Sure, the tech falling into the wrong hands is a concern that needs to be weighed regarding how trustworthy the ally is we are giving the weapons to. I think Ukraine passes that test. Then there is the issue of will the weapon be immobilized should it have to be abandoned. There are destruction procedures for personnel to carry out, smashing electronics, etc., making the high tech part inoperable. As far as any US tech falling into Russian hands, giving the sanctions, how long would it be before they could even reverse engineer and manufacture what they have seized? By the time they could, it would be old tech. Russian capabilities have largely been reduced to dumb warfare, completely mechanical in nature.

Too much of what we give is to defend. Not enough to destroy the beast. It's like we are giving them shields but no spears. In such a scenario, it gives quantity of forces more advantage over quality.

1,000 percent agree. Send Ukraine what they need to stop the killing.