How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Harry Bosch]

I think Ukraine losing Soledar and Bakhmut in near future will cause some realization that the war isn't going well, and will continue at least until end of 2023. Ukraine's western backers will do one of two things:

1) Increase weapons deliveries and brace for harder times.
2) Cave in to pressure to force a negotiated peace where Russia gets to keep all of the land it has occupied.

Neither is a quick solution. And actually, there's also a third option...

3) Do nothing, continue as before with insufficient arms deliveries and pretend everything is going to work out somehow.

Politicians tend to always choose the "do nothing" option rather than take risks. This also partially explains Germany's timidness. Most Germans think that Germany has already given enough, and more people are against delivering tanks than for. As a politician, Scholz can't go against popular opinion.

I really don't think that a negotiated peace is possible with Russia. A negotiated peace would just allow them to rearm, retrain, repair their economy; Then re-attack.

 

[Elixir]

I came with undeniable facts which refute your MSM "facts".

There are no undeniable facts in the land of liars for a Putin. They deny almost all facts, no matter how blatantly obvious.
Babs denies the undeniable fact the Russia invaded Ukraine (even denied they were going to invade while it was obvious to the world). Babs denies the well documented war crimes Russia is committing and has committed, Babs denies the documented fact of over 100k dead Russian conscripts…

There is no fact that Russian trolls can’t deny.

 

[Copernicus]

Soledar is still in Ukrainian hands, but it looks likely to fall soon. This article describes the human wave tactics used by the Wagner Group, which has been engorged with a lot of convict "volunteers". First they send in a wave of convicts to soften up resistance, expecting to sacrifice most of them. Then they follow it up with more experienced, disciplined troops. The lives of the convicts, some of whom may be political, are treated like disposable garbage. It is a death sentence for many of them.

Ukraine says mining town holding out against Russian assault​

 

[Harry Bosch]

I came with undeniable facts which refute your MSM "facts".

There are no undeniable facts in the land of liars for a Putin. They deny almost all facts, no matter how blatantly obvious.
Babs denies the undeniable fact the Russia invaded Ukraine (even denied they were going to invade while it was obvious to the world). Babs denies the well documented war crimes Russia is committing and has committed, Babs denies the documented fact of over 100k dead Russian conscripts…

There is no fact that Russian trolls can’t deny.

Yea, I wish that Barbos would ready his earlier comments in this thread to see how wrong he has been. I also wonder sometimes if he feels guilty about advocating and pushing for war when he is too old to serve. It's pretty fucking easy to advocate for a war sending your neighbors son to fight. But are you willing to fight for it? If I was too old to serve, I would at least be a little circumspect and sensitive to the fact that war kills people. Mostly younger people and civilians. And it ought to be the very last fucking option.

 

[Elixir]

If I was too old to serve, I would at least be a little circumspect and sensitive to the fact that war kills people.

If you were bred and born in Russia, that would be a small(er) concern. Human life is pennies on the dollar in Russia.

 

[Jayjay]

Soledar is still in Ukrainian hands, but it looks likely to fall soon. This article describes the human wave tactics used by the Wagner Group, which has been engorged with a lot of convict "volunteers". First they send in a wave of convicts to soften up resistance, expecting to sacrifice most of them. Then they follow it up with more experienced, disciplined troops. The lives of the convicts, some of whom may be political, are treated like disposable garbage. It is a death sentence for many of them.

Ukraine says mining town holding out against Russian assault​

Wagner's tactics are cruel, but they do seem to be making progress. If Ukraine can somehow turn the tide, and push Wagner back even a little bit, it would have huge political ramifications in Russia. Prigozhin has staked his reputation on being able to deliver Bakhmut to Putin on a platter.

The interesting news in that article was this:

In an apparent recognition of battlefield setbacks, Russia’s Defense Ministry announced the demotion of the head of Russian forces in Ukraine after only three months on the job. Russia’s top military officer — the chief of the military’s General Staff, Gen. Valery Gerasimov — was named as the replacement for Gen. Sergei Surovikin, who was demoted to deputy.

Surovikin was hailed as genius behind the successful withdrawal from Kherson. But he was also close to Wagner and the "war faction". This reshuffling could be due to internal power struggles. And as long as they're fighting among themselves, there's a chance they'll continue to make mistakes and appoint incompetent people to run the war.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Soledar is still in Ukrainian hands, but it looks likely to fall soon. This article describes the human wave tactics used by the Wagner Group, which has been engorged with a lot of convict "volunteers". First they send in a wave of convicts to soften up resistance, expecting to sacrifice most of them. Then they follow it up with more experienced, disciplined troops. The lives of the convicts, some of whom may be political, are treated like disposable garbage. It is a death sentence for many of them.

Ukraine says mining town holding out against Russian assault​

Wagner's tactics are cruel, but they do seem to be making progress. If Ukraine can somehow turn the tide, and push Wagner back even a little bit, it would have huge political ramifications in Russia. Prigozhin has staked his reputation on being able to deliver Bakhmut to Putin on a platter.

The interesting news in that article was this:

In an apparent recognition of battlefield setbacks, Russia’s Defense Ministry announced the demotion of the head of Russian forces in Ukraine after only three months on the job. Russia’s top military officer — the chief of the military’s General Staff, Gen. Valery Gerasimov — was named as the replacement for Gen. Sergei Surovikin, who was demoted to deputy.

Surovikin was hailed as genius behind the successful withdrawal from Kherson. But he was also close to Wagner and the "war faction". This reshuffling could be due to internal power struggles. And as long as they're fighting among themselves, there's a chance they'll continue to make mistakes and appoint The wolves smell blood.incompetent people to run the war.

The wolves smell blood.
ISW takes this tack also expect that Prigozhin is more concerned with promoting himself, not so much delivery anything to Putin. At least that's how I read it.

The elevation of Gerasimov and the Russian MoD over Surovikin, a favorite of Prigozhin and the siloviki faction, is additionally highly likely to have been in part a political decision to reassert the primacy of the Russian MoD in an internal Russian power struggle.

The Russian MoD and the siloviki faction, often most publicly represented by Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin, have feuded throughout 2022 on Russia’s conduct of the war in Ukraine. Prigozhin has increasingly criticized the Russian MoD’s conduct of the war since late 2022.[8] Igor Girkin, former commander of Russian militants in Donbas and a prominent milblogger heavily implied that he would support the removal of Russian President Vladimir Putin from office in his most direct criticism of Putin to date on January 10.[9] Surovikin, the previous theater commander in Ukraine, was a public favorite of Prigozhin, and Ukrainian intelligence reported Surovikin is a rival of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.[10] It is unclear why Putin implicitly demoted Surovikin in favor of Gerasimov, unlike previously replaced Russian theater commanders who were blamed for battlefield setbacks. Gerasimov’s elevation is likely in part a political move to weaken the influence of the broadly anti-MoD siloviki faction and a signal for Prigozhin and other actors to reduce their criticism of the MoD.

Putin’s elevation of Gerasimov and the highly criticized Russian MoD may prompt siloviki like Prigozhin to further carve up the Russian information space and push back on the Kremlin’s conduct of the war, however. Prigozhin has relentlessly promoted the Wagner Group at the expense of the Russian MoD’s reputation and may double down on his flashy advertisements on Russian social media and state-affiliated outlets to assert the superiority of his forces.[11] Gerasimov's centralizing efforts will additionally likely face resistance from Prigozhin and other actors eager to retain their private stakes in the war in Ukraine. Prigozhin may have known of Putin’s decision to reappoint these commanders and attempted to preempt this news by amplifying information about Wagner’s efforts to seize Soledar in the past several days to claim a victory.[12] Putin’s decision to elevate the MoD may also signal Putin’s departure from attempts to appease siloviki-affiliated milbloggers in an effort to regain control over the dominant narrative. ISW will continue to monitor the sentiment among different milblogger factions regarding their ability to criticize the Russian MoD or Russian military commanders.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Russia announces UN Security Council meeting on Ukraine

"I will not elaborate on what will happen in the Security Council -- at our suggestion -- on Ukraine early next week: let our opponents live in ignorance for the time being," Polianski assured in a message on his Telegram profile.

Right, Mate! Gotta keep up that good threatening KGB line.

Poliansky's reaction is due, as he explained, to the fact that this week, both Thursday and Friday, there are meetings convened, "by Japan" and "a group of Western sponsors" that will deal with the situation in Ukraine "with anti-Russian overtones," he criticized.

Mercy me. The propaganda never ceases. The sooner Russia dissolves into a banana republic the better for the planet.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

To cold in Russia for bananas. They will have to settle for becoming a cabbage republic.

 

[Patooka]

This article is 10 days old, but it does point out the Bakhmut falling to Russia's pet nazis might be a tad optimistic.

‘Putin’s Chef’ Admits Ukrainian Stronghold Is Unbreakable

Yevgeny Prigozhin tried to make excuses for Wagner’s failure to take Bakhmut, claiming Ukraine’s “500 lines of defense” have been impossible to penetrate.

www.thedailybeast.com

While pro-Kremlin pundits and Prigozhin himself have for weeks taunted Ukrainians with threats that Bakhmut will soon fall to Russia, the Wagner boss now appears to be acknowledging what Western experts and British intelligence have already predicted: Russia is unlikely to achieve any major wins in the area any time soon.

“It’s a fortress in every home,” Prigozhin said in video published by RIA Novosti. “The guys lock horns for every home, sometimes not just for one day. Sometimes for weeks over one home. They take one home, they take a second, a third,” Prigozhin said.

So even if Putin "wins" in Bakhmut (which is doubtful), it will most likely be a victory in the same sense the Persians "won" at Thermopylae.

 

[Jayjay]

This article is 10 days old, but it does point out the Bakhmut falling to Russia's pet nazis might be a tad optimistic.

‘Putin’s Chef’ Admits Ukrainian Stronghold Is Unbreakable

Yevgeny Prigozhin tried to make excuses for Wagner’s failure to take Bakhmut, claiming Ukraine’s “500 lines of defense” have been impossible to penetrate.

www.thedailybeast.com

While pro-Kremlin pundits and Prigozhin himself have for weeks taunted Ukrainians with threats that Bakhmut will soon fall to Russia, the Wagner boss now appears to be acknowledging what Western experts and British intelligence have already predicted: Russia is unlikely to achieve any major wins in the area any time soon.

“It’s a fortress in every home,” Prigozhin said in video published by RIA Novosti. “The guys lock horns for every home, sometimes not just for one day. Sometimes for weeks over one home. They take one home, they take a second, a third,” Prigozhin said.

So even if Putin "wins" in Bakhmut (which is doubtful), it will most likely be a victory in the same sense the Persians "won" at Thermopylae.

Since that article, Wagner has taken Opytne to the south of Bakhmut, and (most of) Soledar to its north. I don't think it will stop there. They'll keep using the same tactics in and around Bakhmut until Ukraine is surrounded. The advantage of using low-quality troops like convicts or mobiks as cannon-fodder and bait means that they don't lose combat power or high-quality soldiers in these skirmishes, and can repeat the same pattern over and over again.

Ukraine's counter-offenses in the mean time haven't gone anywhere. It's obvious to me, that extrapolating from here means Russia will keep chipping away small parts of Ukrainian land, and large number of Ukrainian soldiers. Until something breaks.

 

[Harry Bosch]

This article is 10 days old, but it does point out the Bakhmut falling to Russia's pet nazis might be a tad optimistic.

‘Putin’s Chef’ Admits Ukrainian Stronghold Is Unbreakable

Yevgeny Prigozhin tried to make excuses for Wagner’s failure to take Bakhmut, claiming Ukraine’s “500 lines of defense” have been impossible to penetrate.

www.thedailybeast.com

While pro-Kremlin pundits and Prigozhin himself have for weeks taunted Ukrainians with threats that Bakhmut will soon fall to Russia, the Wagner boss now appears to be acknowledging what Western experts and British intelligence have already predicted: Russia is unlikely to achieve any major wins in the area any time soon.

“It’s a fortress in every home,” Prigozhin said in video published by RIA Novosti. “The guys lock horns for every home, sometimes not just for one day. Sometimes for weeks over one home. They take one home, they take a second, a third,” Prigozhin said.

So even if Putin "wins" in Bakhmut (which is doubtful), it will most likely be a victory in the same sense the Persians "won" at Thermopylae.

Since that article, Wagner has taken Opytne to the south of Bakhmut, and (most of) Soledar to its north. I don't think it will stop there. They'll keep using the same tactics in and around Bakhmut until Ukraine is surrounded. The advantage of using low-quality troops like convicts or mobiks as cannon-fodder and bait means that they don't lose combat power or high-quality soldiers in these skirmishes, and can repeat the same pattern over and over again.

Ukraine's counter-offenses in the mean time haven't gone anywhere. It's obvious to me, that extrapolating from here means Russia will keep chipping away small parts of Ukrainian land, and large number of Ukrainian soldiers. Until something breaks.

A key phrase that you said above to me is "Wagner has taken Opytne". Not the Russian military. The Wagner group did it (at great cost btw). Russia isn't going to win this war long term. They are fucked. I think that Wagner winning increases the likelihood of Russian civil war. Secondly, will this "win" encourage Iran and North Korea to increase their arms to Russia. Not sure. China is definitely getting tired of this war. This "win" will motivate the west to sending more arms to Ukraine (Poland, Germany, Finland: send the fucking Leopard tanks to Ukraine! Quit screwing around.)

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

So 1000 Wagner cannon fodder must die to take some stinking Ukrainian village? And if any of said cannon fodder tries to retreat they will be summarily executed? Or shot by their Russian commanders if they attempt to surrender to the Ukranians? How long can this strategy work? Who in their right mind is going to sign up to die in the mud of Ukraine?

 

[Harry Bosch]

So 1000 Wagner cannon fodder must die to take some stinking Ukrainian village? And if any of said cannon fodder tries to retreat they will be summarily executed? Or shot by their Russian commanders if they attempt to surrender to the Ukranians? How long can this strategy work? Who in their right mind is going to sign up to die in the mud of Ukraine?

Yep. Great point. It sure won't be the old people in Russia making these decisions who will sign up. Pathetic.

 

[Jayjay]

This article is 10 days old, but it does point out the Bakhmut falling to Russia's pet nazis might be a tad optimistic.

‘Putin’s Chef’ Admits Ukrainian Stronghold Is Unbreakable

Yevgeny Prigozhin tried to make excuses for Wagner’s failure to take Bakhmut, claiming Ukraine’s “500 lines of defense” have been impossible to penetrate.

www.thedailybeast.com

While pro-Kremlin pundits and Prigozhin himself have for weeks taunted Ukrainians with threats that Bakhmut will soon fall to Russia, the Wagner boss now appears to be acknowledging what Western experts and British intelligence have already predicted: Russia is unlikely to achieve any major wins in the area any time soon.

“It’s a fortress in every home,” Prigozhin said in video published by RIA Novosti. “The guys lock horns for every home, sometimes not just for one day. Sometimes for weeks over one home. They take one home, they take a second, a third,” Prigozhin said.

So even if Putin "wins" in Bakhmut (which is doubtful), it will most likely be a victory in the same sense the Persians "won" at Thermopylae.

Since that article, Wagner has taken Opytne to the south of Bakhmut, and (most of) Soledar to its north. I don't think it will stop there. They'll keep using the same tactics in and around Bakhmut until Ukraine is surrounded. The advantage of using low-quality troops like convicts or mobiks as cannon-fodder and bait means that they don't lose combat power or high-quality soldiers in these skirmishes, and can repeat the same pattern over and over again.

Ukraine's counter-offenses in the mean time haven't gone anywhere. It's obvious to me, that extrapolating from here means Russia will keep chipping away small parts of Ukrainian land, and large number of Ukrainian soldiers. Until something breaks.

A key phrase that you said above to me is "Wagner has taken Opytne". Not the Russian military. The Wagner group did it (at great cost btw).

Mercenaries or not, they're still part of the Russian fighting force, and that doesn't make their gains any less real. And what I'm saying is that there is no "great cost", because the brunt of the casualties are convicts whom nobody is going to miss. No huge number of equipment is lost either.

(I think Wagner does have support from other parts of the Russian military, paratroopers from VDV for example. Prigozhin wants to present victories as being "all Wagner"... while putting blame on failures to Russian MoD's lack of support. I'm kind of playing in hands of Prighozin's propaganda by attributing these victories to Wagner, but I think it's a minor detail, because Wagner does play a decisive role in these battles, and is doing something that the regular army is incapable of due to soviet-style bureaucracy and organization.)

Russia isn't going to win this war long term. They are fucked. I think that Wagner winning increases the likelihood of Russian civil war. Secondly, will this "win" encourage Iran and North Korea to increase their arms to Russia. Not sure. China is definitely getting tired of this war. This "win" will motivate the west to sending more arms to Ukraine

The internal battle between Wagner and Russian MoD is just politics and long way from any kind of civil war.

As for external support, NK and Iran aren't supporting Russia because the latter is "winning". They're already pariah states in the eyes of the west, what do they have to lose by selling weapons to Russia?

China is a wild card. I'm not at all convinced that China is getting tired of the war: It benefits Xi if the west is occupied elsewhere and Russia has to sell gas and oil to China with a considerable discount. So far, China hasn't sold Russia any advanced weapons (I think it might be components, commercial drones, and equipment that can't be traced to Chinese military), but that might change if the tide turns against Russia.

(Poland, Germany, Finland: send the fucking Leopard tanks to Ukraine! Quit screwing around.)

Germany is blocking re-export for other countries also.

Tanks will be nice, but in all honesty, many of them will be destroyed. Russia doesn't have as good anti-tank weapons as the west, but they do have some.

 

[Jayjay]

So 1000 Wagner cannon fodder must die to take some stinking Ukrainian village? And if any of said cannon fodder tries to retreat they will be summarily executed? Or shot by their Russian commanders if they attempt to surrender to the Ukranians? How long can this strategy work? Who in their right mind is going to sign up to die in the mud of Ukraine?

A few months ago I read somewhere that Russian prison population had reduced by 23000 since Wagner started recruiting. It could be more now, but obviously, even prisoners aren't idiots. They must have heard rumors from the outside that it's actually a death sentence, and getting new people to sign up is going to be harder.

But anyway, let's say the actual number of convicts sent to the front lines or being in training now is around 30k. Even if attrition is hundreds of casualties per day, they can still go on for several months... before they have to start using regular mobiks.

 

[SLD]

So 1000 Wagner cannon fodder must die to take some stinking Ukrainian village? And if any of said cannon fodder tries to retreat they will be summarily executed? Or shot by their Russian commanders if they attempt to surrender to the Ukranians? How long can this strategy work? Who in their right mind is going to sign up to die in the mud of Ukraine?

A few months ago I read somewhere that Russian prison population had reduced by 23000 since Wagner started recruiting. It could be more now, but obviously, even prisoners aren't idiots. They must have heard rumors from the outside that it's actually a death sentence, and getting new people to sign up is going to be harder.

But anyway, let's say the actual number of convicts sent to the front lines or being in training now is around 30k. Even if attrition is hundreds of casualties per day, they can still go on for several months... before they have to start using regular mobiks.

No. They might continue for several days, not months. The “victory” in Bakhmut is pyrrhic. The casualties are horrific and they can’t keep it up for a significant amount of time. Russia has trouble supplying their forces for any sustained operations. That includes Wagner. Witness the reduction of artillery by 75% recently. In the meantime Ukraine continues to get more military aid and grows stronger. Russian morale is abysmal; it won’t last long in Wagner either with these casualty rates. You have been waaay too pessimistic since the beginning of this operation. Ukraine need only to hold on and keep fighting to win this war.

In the meantime, sanctions can and are taking a toll on the Russian people’s morale. Destroy their economy and see how it turns out. Oil and gas prices are now back to normal, and Russia has lost markets, probably permanently. It will be the people of Russia who stop this war. Not Putin or Wagner.

 

[SLD]

How Europe is Decoupling From Russian Energy

Russian Natural Gas Exports to the EU are Down Nearly 90%—but the EU has Been Able to Replace Russian Supplies with Record Liquefied Natural Gas Imports

www.apricitas.io

Russia has shot itself in the foot with this war. They’ve lost Europe as a market and thus seriously hurt their ability to rebuild once they throw off the yoke of Putin and his henchmen. As someone said, they are turning into a cabbage republic. Barbos will likely argue that they aren’t necessary as other markets will pick up the slack. They are for now, but only at heavily discounted prices.

The problem is countries like India, that are still willing to buy the heavily discounted Russian oil. If Modi would step up, or if we could make him a better deal, it might go a long way towards hurting Russia. That, or if Ukraine could attack Russian export abilities.

 

[Jayjay]

A few months ago I read somewhere that Russian prison population had reduced by 23000 since Wagner started recruiting. It could be more now, but obviously, even prisoners aren't idiots. They must have heard rumors from the outside that it's actually a death sentence, and getting new people to sign up is going to be harder.

But anyway, let's say the actual number of convicts sent to the front lines or being in training now is around 30k. Even if attrition is hundreds of casualties per day, they can still go on for several months... before they have to start using regular mobiks.

No. They might continue for several days, not months.

They've already been at it for several months now. What makes you think Wagner's suddenly only got "days" left?

And Wagner guys weren't slouches even before they started using prisoners en masse.

The “victory” in Bakhmut is pyrrhic. The casualties are horrific and they can’t keep it up for a significant amount of time. Russia has trouble supplying their forces for any sustained operations. That includes Wagner. Witness the reduction of artillery by 75% recently.

75% reduction is great, but we need to remember that the starting point was something like 10-15 times the number of shells compared to Ukraine. I think Russia is now somewhat deprived of its earlier tactic of just massive artillery shellings everywhere, but they still have enough capability to do it locally around Bakhmut for example. Ukraine' counter-battery fire seems ineffective or non-existent.

In the meantime Ukraine continues to get more military aid and grows stronger. Russian morale is abysmal; it won’t last long in Wagner either with these casualty rates. You have been waaay too pessimistic since the beginning of this operation. Ukraine need only to hold on and keep fighting to win this war.

But wagner isn't suffering casualties where it counts. They're losing mere convicts. Meat for the grinder. Actual trained Wagner fighters are sent to mop up later. Sure they're losing some of them too, but much less.

I think I've been too optimistic. I predicted a month or so ago that current front will hold in the big picture, but in smaller scale there may be some successes on both sides: Russia taking Bakhmut, Ukraine taking Svatove or Kreminna for example. The first part seems to be unfolding, but Ukraine's advances are stalled.

In the meantime, sanctions can and are taking a toll on the Russian people’s morale. Destroy their economy and see how it turns out. Oil and gas prices are now back to normal, and Russia has lost markets, probably permanently. It will be the people of Russia who stop this war. Not Putin or Wagner.

Sanctions didn't work in Cuba, Venezuela, Iran, North Korea, or anywhere else.

The thing about the minor advances by Wagner is that the people of Russia and it's Tsar are happy as long as they're winning. No matter how slowly, if they see progress, they can imagine that they just have to keep doing what they're doing and they'll win in the end. With that hope of victory they can eat cabbages for years and be fine with it.

But the opposite is also true. If Ukraine starts gaining ground, even if it's just a few villages here or there, then the same logic dictates that given enough time, Russia could lose everything. And that's when the society starts imploding. Not because of sanctions or price of crude, but because the idea of their precious empire starts to crumble.

 

[Jayjay]

How Europe is Decoupling From Russian Energy

Russian Natural Gas Exports to the EU are Down Nearly 90%—but the EU has Been Able to Replace Russian Supplies with Record Liquefied Natural Gas Imports

www.apricitas.io

Russia has shot itself in the foot with this war. They’ve lost Europe as a market and thus seriously hurt their ability to rebuild once they throw off the yoke of Putin and his henchmen. As someone said, they are turning into a cabbage republic. Barbos will likely argue that they aren’t necessary as other markets will pick up the slack. They are for now, but only at heavily discounted prices.

The problem is countries like India, that are still willing to buy the heavily discounted Russian oil. If Modi would step up, or if we could make him a better deal, it might go a long way towards hurting Russia. That, or if Ukraine could attack Russian export abilities.

I think India and China are smart enough to know that if Europe doesn't buy Russian oil, then they don't have to pay full price either.

Urals price went below $60 right after G7 imposed the price cap in December, and hasn't come up since.