How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[repoman]

Mass Forcible Deportations of Ukrainians: From the Soviet unity of nations to Contemporary Russian War Crimes

Is there any level of truth in the article about what is happening now? Is Russia sending Ethnic Ukrainians (especially children) to distant parts of Russia to have a larger Russian population ratio in the currently occupied territories? If so, at these rather large numbers?

And unlike what Bilby thinks, I am not JAQing off with this. If this is true, this is HUGE and is a massive war crime.

The previous Soviet Era (also Tsarist era?) population transfers are seen as fact and not suffering from "The Fog of War."

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Mass Forcible Deportations of Ukrainians: From the Soviet unity of nations to Contemporary Russian War Crimes

Is there any level of truth in the article about what is happening now? Is Russia sending Ethnic Ukrainians (especially children) to distant parts of Russia to have a larger Russian population ratio in the currently occupied territories? If so, at these rather large numbers?

And unlike what Bilby thinks, I am not JAQing off with this. If this is true, this is HUGE and is a massive war crime.

The previous Soviet Era (also Tsarist era?) population transfers are seen as fact and not suffering from "The Fog of War."

Why would you not believe the reports? It's the same practice Russia has been using for decades.

In other news Ukraine has shot down a twelfth Russofascist plane. That's twelve in twelve days. Obviously Ukraine has upped its air defense game.

 

[barbos]

Busted!

Substitute Russia for the US in that clip and it would be equally correct.

No, it won't.

 

[barbos]

Is there any level of truth in the article about what is happening now?

None. Complete unadulterated propaganda garbage.
And if you ask me, this piece of shit from PR Army (note the name) should be arrested and is, in fact, sent to Gulag, along with many others. But, that's me, I am sick and tired of that shit.

 

[barbos]

I mean Russian speakers who are Ukrainian citizens living in the eastern regions of Ukraine that are currently controlled by the Russian army. Not people who were citizens of Russia at the start of the conflict. Of course the Russian army will have some people who are not ethnic Russian.

Eastern Ukraine have been fighting regime in Kiev since 2014 CIA coup.
They were absorbed into regular russian army in 2022.

Is that why so little of Eastern Ukraine behind the Russian line, and the front has gone virtually unchanged since this whole thing began?

Only Russians can view a stalled invasion as inevitable victory. But congrats on getting an Abrams tank. Too bad it was burned. Could have used it instead of those drones like a real military would.

frontline started moving rather quickly, in case you did not know.

Dude, if the Russian invasion was going as well as you've said it has been over the last two years, it'd been over roughly two years ago.

Over the last eighteen months I've been saying it has been a WWI stalemate. Over the same period of time, you were certain it was just near the tipping point. Oddly enough, the front is still kind of where it has been for that period of time, with countless people dying for postage stamps worth of territory. So you are going to have to excuse me when I take your claim with a truckload of salt.

Over the last 2 years Russia subsequently destroyed a few ukrainian armies.
Clown Hitler sends women to frontline now. It's not a stalemate, It's how Russia does its defence, ask Napoleon or even Hitler.

 

[barbos]

Dude, if the Russian invasion was going as well as you've said it has been over the last two years, it'd been over roughly two years ago.

Dude, you are projecting.
If your operation was going on as you planned 2 years ago, Nuland would have been sitting in Kremlin now.

Dude, it's you who is projecting.
By your standards, the USA had to invade Iraq to protect us from violent Islamic terrorists. And millions of people bought that crap.

And frankly, disastrous as it was, that invasion went better than the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Tom

Yes, You invaded Iraq to protect from terrorists and you invaded Russia because Putin is bad.

 

[barbos]

Amazing that after two years of this war you are still parroting the same old bullshit.

Ukraine is NOT historically and culturally Russia. Kiev and Ukraine PRECEDED Russia by some centuries.

Kiev maybe but Ukraine did not.
Kiev is a russian city, word "Ukraine" did not exist until maybe 15 century or even later.
Again, just because Kiev ended up a capital of entity called "Ukraine" does not mean it's not Russia.

So what is amazing is that you. after 2 years are parroting the same garbage, and do so to a guy who studied history in a russian school.

You reminded me braindead fuck from Ukraine from chatroulette who proudly started his "chat" with "Kiev is the mother of Russian cities" to which russian history teacher replied "OK, that must mean Kiev is Russia". Dumbfuck can't find the answer to that conundrum and disconnects. Yes, there is a video of that somewhere.
Yes, Kiev is the mother of russian cities. We can move Capital of Russia back to Kiev.

 

[lpetrich]

Hungary's parliament ratifies Sweden's NATO bid | AP News

The vote, which passed with 188 votes for and six against, was the culmination of months of wrangling by Hungary’s allies to convince its nationalist government to lift its block on Sweden’s membership. The government of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán submitted the protocols for approving Sweden’s entry into NATO in July 2022, but the matter stalled in parliament over opposition by governing party lawmakers.

Hungary’s decision paved the way for the second expansion of NATO’s ranks in a year after both Sweden and Finland applied to join the alliance in May 2022 following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine — an assault that was purportedly intended to prevent further NATO expansion.

Timeline of Sweden's bid to join the NATO alliance | AP News

Hungary Approves Sweden’s Accession to NATO - The New York Times
(Prime Minister Viktor Orban)

His decision to finally allow a vote followed a visit to Budapest, the Hungarian capital, on Friday by the Swedish prime minister, Ulf Kristersson. During the visit, it was announced that Sweden would provide Hungary with four Swedish-made Gripen jets in addition to the 14 its air force already uses, and that the maker of the jets, Saab, would open an A.I. research center in Hungary.

The formal admission of Sweden to NATO still requires some procedural paperwork. Once finalized, it will, along with Finland’s entry last year, give a significant boost to NATO’s military strength in the Baltic Sea and reduce Russia’s ability to dominate the waterway, which controls access to ports in St. Petersburg, Kaliningrad and Ust-Luga, an important transit point for Russian energy exports.

 

[barbos]

That sucks, plans for Europe invasion need to be rewritten. I hate paperwork.

 

[lpetrich]

Sweden officially joining NATO will put Russia in a very tight spot. Its northwestern access to the oceans will now be completely surrounded by NATO members, including the narrowest part, the  Øresund between Denmark and Sweden. There are some alternatives west of it, but the  Danish straits have Denmark and Germany on all sides.

That adds to how bottled up its southwestern fleet is. The only way out of the Black Sea is a route that is totally surrounded by Turkey:  Bosporus strait and  Sea of Marmara and  Dardanelles strait. Once out of there, it has to go through the Aegean Sea, with mostly Greek and some Turkish coastline. Once past Crete, Russia's ships have some friendly or possibly friendly countries to dock at, like Syria, Lebanon, and all the north coast of Africa. But the final feature to cross before reaching the oceans is the  Strait of Gibraltar .

Russia has much better access to the oceans in the north and to the east.

These Are Vessels in Russia's Black Sea Fleet That Ukraine Wiped Out - Feb 7, 2024, 2:31 PM PST

• In under two years, Ukrainian forces have devastated Russia's Black Sea Fleet of about 80 vessels.
• A Ukrainian navy spokesman said at least 25 Russian warships are destroyed and 15 are under repair.
• In lieu of warships, Ukraine uses unmanned drones and anti-ship missiles to thwart Russia's navy

 

[barbos]

lpetrich, it's nothing but a patting each other on a shoulder.
Sweden has always been a de-facto NATO member. Baltic sea as well as Black sea have not had military significance for a while now. Russia does not use Baltic sea for military access to atlantic ocean.
Having said that, I think closing passage equates to declaring war.
So this NATO occupation of Sweden is meaningless.
So, Russia can't have Black Sea to themselves and you can't have Baltic Sea to yourself.

 

[barbos]

Mass Forcible Deportations of Ukrainians: From the Soviet unity of nations to Contemporary Russian War Crimes

Is there any level of truth in the article about what is happening now? Is Russia sending Ethnic Ukrainians (especially children) to distant parts of Russia to have a larger Russian population ratio in the currently occupied territories? If so, at these rather large numbers?

And unlike what Bilby thinks, I am not JAQing off with this. If this is true, this is HUGE and is a massive war crime.

The previous Soviet Era (also Tsarist era?) population transfers are seen as fact and not suffering from "The Fog of War."

Why would you not believe the reports?

Because it's coming from the same people that claimed Russian army rapes 90 year old women?

It's the same practice Russia has been using for decades.

As did US. In fact, US did much worse because you were sending people to concentration camps as precautionary measure, whereas USSR was sending people out for very good reasons.

In other news Ukraine has shot down a twelfth Russofascist plane. That's twelve in twelve days. Obviously Ukraine has upped its air defense game.

They are lying. But they do try to shoot down planes, but so far they (NATO mercenaries) lost 3 patriot batteries doing so. And few cheaper european batteries. NATO-fascists are losing a lot of expensive equipment for a plane here and plane there.

 

[lpetrich]

There is a little bit of Russia that's detached from the rest of Russia: the Kaliningrad Oblast. Russia grabbed it from Germany at the end of WWII, and Poland grabbed the rest of Far-East Germany, as I like to call it:  Oder–Neisse line

This region is named after its main city,  Kaliningrad formerly  Königsberg - "King's Mountain" in German

Kremlin calls Poland’s decision to rename Kaliningrad a ‘hostile act’ | Russia | The Guardian - Wed 10 May 2023 16.07 EDT - "Russian city will now be known as Królewiec in official documents, its name in the 15th and 16th centuries"

Lithuanian Seimas Proposes to Rename Kaliningrad to Karaliaučius | European Pravda - Friday, 12 May 2023

However,
Lithuanian language commission sceptical about renaming Kaliningrad - LRT - 2023.05.26 12:02

The State Commission of the Lithuanian Language (VLKK) has rejected a proposal by several MPs to stop calling the Russian exclave wedged between Lithuania and Poland ‘Kaliningrad’.

However, the commission says it is encourages the usage of ‘Karaliaučius’ – the Lithuanian version of Königsberg and the historic designation of the area – alongside its current name.

No word on whether Germany might also do that.

 

[lpetrich]

 Politics of Kaliningrad Oblast and  Kaliningrad question

Russia 'facing breakup' as separatists vow to 'break from Moscow' | World | News | Express.co.uk

Russia facing nightmare as Kaliningrad separatists vow 'break from Moscow is inevitable'

EXCLUSIVE Crisis brewing in Kaliningrad with the Russian-dominated enclave facing isolation and growing tensions, according to activists who vow to liberate the territory from Moscow.

...
The Baltic Republican Party leader Rustam Vasiliev has told Express.co.uk that the region's break from Moscow was only a "matter of time," ditching Russia's name for the territory for the historic German one - Königsberg.
He told Express: "The break from Moscow is inevitable. It is just a matter of time. As Britain's Rolling Stones said: 'Time is on my side. Yes, it is.'"

What might happen to the 1 million people in that region, and the 500 thousand people in that city?

He told Express.co.uk: "[The] Worst case scenario for residents of Königsberg region is a North Korea on the Baltic Sea."

Poor, isolated, autocratic.

 

[lpetrich]

Transnistria, Breakaway Region of Moldova, Asks Russia for Protection - The New York Times - "Transnistria declared independence in 1992 but is not recognized internationally. The request by the territory’s legislature could fuel regional tensions as the war in Ukraine rages."

The territory, largely Russian-speaking, broke away from Moldova and, after a brief war in 1992, set up its own national government.

The appeal to Moscow was made at a special session of Transnistria’s Congress of Deputies, a Soviet-style assembly that rarely meets. At its last session, in 2006, the assembly asked to be annexed by Russia, though Moscow did not act on that request.

The Transnistria Congress appealed to the two houses of Russia’s Parliament to take unspecified measures “to protect Transnistria in the face of increasing pressure” from Moldova given that “more than 220,000 Russian citizens permanently reside in the region.”

Russian news reports quoted Vadim Krasnoselsky, the enclave’s professed president, as calling for help from Moscow because “a policy of genocide is being applied against Transnistria.” Similar incendiary and evidence-free claims were made for years by Russian proxies in eastern Ukraine and used by Moscow to help justify its 2022 invasion.

But Transnistria stopped far short of requesting annexation by Russia — something Moldova had feared it might do — and also called for help from the European Parliament, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe and the Red Cross.

Genocide? It's not like Transnistria is being blockaded on all sides and bombed into rubble. Because of the Russia-Ukraine War, Ukraine has closed crossings on its side, so the only available crossings are through Moldova. There is a Russian military base there, and supplies can no longer be sent to it from Odesa, Ukraine.

Transnistria is recognized by two other breakaway regions: Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Eurasian Georgia, both "liberated" some 30 years ago by Russia.

Transnistria appeals to Russia for ‘protection’, reviving fears for Moldova breakaway region | Moldova | The Guardian - US says it is closely watching situation in key region on Ukraine border after officials asked Moscow for help against the government in Moldova"

After Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, tensions surged around the separatist region, which says it has 220,000 Russian citizens. Relations between Moldova and Russia have also frayed as the government in Chișinău has steered a pro-European course.

Moldova’s president, Maia Sandu, in Albania for a summit of south-east European countries, said her country remained committed to a peaceful resolution of the Transnistrian conflict. “What the government is doing today is making small steps for the economic reintegration of the country,” she said.

Transnistria is asking Russia for protection. Here’s what to know | CNN

While Moldova’s President Maia Sandu indicated she would be willing to join the EU without Transnistria, reunification may streamline the process. A recent blog for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace argued that “Moldova’s strategy is to hurry the process along by making life as difficult as possible” for Transnistria.

In this vein, Moldova unexpectedly scrapped customs duty reliefs for Transnistrian businesses in January, forcing them to pay levies to both Transnistria and Moldova.

...
The then-commander of Russia’s Central Military Region, Maj. Gen. Rustam Minnekaev, said one aim of the so-called “special military operation” was to establish a corridor through southern Ukraine to Transnistria, as Russia seeks to reunite with its “compatriots abroad.”

 Transnistria is the Pridnestrovian Moldovan Republic, a breakaway part of  Moldova that claims independence. This territory is mostly on the east bank of the Dniester River, and it is about 400 km long and 10 - 20 km wide (250 mi, 6 - 12 mi).

 

[lpetrich]

Not Only Armenia, Other Ex-Soviet States Are Moving Away From Russia Post Ukraine War, Says UK MoD - February 29, 2024

Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces, several ex-Soviet republics have reevaluated their relationship with Moscow.

For example, Kazakhstan opted not to hold a military parade in 2022 commemorating the Soviet interpretation of its World War II victory.

While Kazakhstan has refrained from joining Western sanctions against Russia, it has also refused to aid the Kremlin, asserting that it will not allow Russia to use Kazakh territory to evade sanctions.

...
As Russian influence declines, the Armenian government has bolstered cooperation with the United States and the European Union, even opening a new EU Mission in Yerevan.

Additionally, Armenia has begun distancing itself from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a Russia-led military bloc comprising six former Soviet republics.

West Invites Armenia To Join NATO; Russia Concerned With Growing Alliance, Military Drills With The US - September 7, 2023

On September 6, Armenia announced its plans to host a joint military drill with the United States next week. The exercise, Eagle Partner 2023, is scheduled from September 11 to September 20 at Armenia’s Zar training center.

Following this development, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov conveyed to reporters that the news regarding Armenia’s intention to hold a joint military exercise with the United States is “alarming.”

Armenian officials claim that Russia has recently been doing a poor job in mediating its conflict with Azerbaijan.

Armenia freezes participation in Russia-led security bloc - Prime Minister | Reuters

Armenia has frozen its participation in the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) because the bloc had failed the country, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said in an interview broadcast on Thursday.

Pashinyan also said that Azerbaijan, with which Armenia has fought two wars over the past three decades, was not adhering to the principles needed to clinch a long-term peace treaty, and suggested Azerbaijan was preparing to launch another attack.

Baku on Friday called Pashinyan's allegations unfounded and accused him of stirring up regional tension and of damaging the peace process.

NP argued that this Russian-led bloc has failed his nation. "The Collective Security Treaty has not fulfilled its objectives as far as Armenia is concerned, particularly in 2021 and 2022. And we could not let that happen without taking notice." and "We have now in practical terms frozen our participation in this treaty. As for what comes next, we shall have to see."

There is a Russian base in Armenia, and there is no discussion of closing it, at least not yet.

The CSTO includes Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

 

[lpetrich]

Kaliningrad, Transnistria, Armenia, Kazakhstan, ... though Russia's war with Ukraine is now stalemated, Russia is losing over its empire.

 

[barbos]

 Politics of Kaliningrad Oblast and  Kaliningrad question

Russia 'facing breakup' as separatists vow to 'break from Moscow' | World | News | Express.co.uk

Russia facing nightmare as Kaliningrad separatists vow 'break from Moscow is inevitable'

EXCLUSIVE Crisis brewing in Kaliningrad with the Russian-dominated enclave facing isolation and growing tensions, according to activists who vow to liberate the territory from Moscow.

...
The Baltic Republican Party leader Rustam Vasiliev has told Express.co.uk that the region's break from Moscow was only a "matter of time," ditching Russia's name for the territory for the historic German one - Königsberg.
He told Express: "The break from Moscow is inevitable. It is just a matter of time. As Britain's Rolling Stones said: 'Time is on my side. Yes, it is.'"

What might happen to the 1 million people in that region, and the 500 thousand people in that city?

He told Express.co.uk: "[The] Worst case scenario for residents of Königsberg region is a North Korea on the Baltic Sea."

Poor, isolated, autocratic.

Where do you even get this BS.

 

[barbos]

Kaliningrad,

Expect Lithuania becoming Russia again or nukes will fly into Poland

Transnistria,

Land bridge is coming.

Armenia,

Putin does not care about it anymore.

Kazakhstan, ..

What about it? Seriously, what about it?

. though Russia's war with Ukraine is now stalemated, Russia is losing over its empire.

Keep telling yourself that.

 

[barbos]

Speaking of people wetting themselves over revolt in Kalinigrad, If I were you I would be more worried about revolt in ..... Poland. I am talking about pro-putin (no joke) polish farmers blocking Polish-Ukraine border.
Yep, with pro-putin signs and shit.