How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Jimmy Higgins]

Reports are coming in that new conscripts being sent to Ukraine are being shook down for cell phones and gear by Russian soldiers. Fights and mutinies are resulting. Reportedly a number of theiving contract soldiers got severly beaten, locked themselves in a baracks and had to call for help. It is going to be a long war.

View attachment 40589

How sad is that? Going into debt to buy equipment because your Government wants to send you to die. And die for an unjust cause at that.

Sounds like a Libertarian Utopia. Especially when the loan officer goes to the family demanding their dead son's loan be paid back... with 42% interest.

 

[DrZoidberg]

For those of you wondering how the fuck tiny Ukraine can do so well against Russia. It's because of intel. USA is feeding Ukraine top notch military intel. While Russians are creatively being blocked from gathering intel. Ukraine can see the Russians coming, while the Russians can't see the Ukrainian coming.

Space, the unseen frontier in the war in Ukraine

It is the first war where commercial space capabilities have played a significant role, a US general says.

www.bbc.com

I also recommend reading up on how Ukraine manages to deny Russia air superiority. I've found a few great articles on that. Basically, Ukraine can't dominate the skies themselves, because they're outgunned. But they can use mobile US anti-air platforms making it extremely dangerous to fly over Ukraine.

Ukraine can't really do much offensively with their planes, because they're so outgunned. To an extreme degree. Russia has more than ten times as many combat aircraft than Ukraine.

US Air Force needs to embrace air denial as a core mission

Though the impulse to hold tight to the air superiority paradigm may be strong, the future of air warfare is denial.

www.defensenews.com

Russia's main intel-gathering methods is via air. If they're denied the ability to use planes to gather data, they're operating in the dark. Russia has satellites that can be used to gather data, but they're nowhere near what they need to be to be of much use militarily.
USA has satellites that are so good that they can see anything anywhere in Ukraine, in real time. And Ukraine gets this information immediately. They can and are used as missile guiding tools to make precision hits anywhere in occupied territory.

The combination of denial of air superiority and satellite guided missiles, in practice means that Ukraine has the same benefits as if they'd had air superiority. They can pound Russia into the ground with missile. Russia can't run and hide because Ukraine can see them at all times. Ukraine just needs to stay mobile and Russia has no idea what they're aiming at. That's why Russian cassualities are so extremely high, while Ukrainian casualties aren't.

If you wonder how this one thing can do such a big difference. The first Balkan (1912) war was won by Turkey because they had one gunboat with a longer range than any of the Greeks and Bulgarians. They just parked the ship off the coast and kept relentlessly firing 24/7 at targets on land. Over time they were just whittled away to nothing. They couldn't take boats and go out to take out the boat because none of their canons (even on land) had anything that could even dent the hull.

The extreme effectiveness over modern satellite guided missiles is making USA very nervous. It suggests a shift in military doctrine. Since new satellites will keep being launched. They will get better and better. Sooner or later any little shit nation will have the satellite capacity USA now enjoys. This will have an enormous impact on how future wars will be fought. If anything of any size can be taken out easily, we'll be talking about armies of ninjas fighting each other backed up by expendable battle droids. This will change the deciding factors of war. And most importantly negate a lot of the toys USA today uses to dominate the world militarily.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Reports are coming in that new conscripts being sent to Ukraine are being shook down for cell phones and gear by Russian soldiers. Fights and mutinies are resulting. Reportedly a number of theiving contract soldiers got severly beaten, locked themselves in a baracks and had to call for help. It is going to be a long war.

View attachment 40589

How sad is that? Going into debt to buy equipment because your Government wants to send you to die. And die for an unjust cause at that.

They're not likely to get paid what they are due while in service. I doubt there will be much in the way of survivor's benefits paid out to the family either. The Kremlin budget for next year doesn't come close to covering this war as it is, nevermind the increase in troops. Wait'll winter really sets in and these guys are out there just trying not to freeze to death.

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[Jayjay]

Shahed-136 is a cheap-ass kamikaze drone. I would be wary of numbers reported by Ukraine, because "shooting it down" could mean that Ukrainian forces shot at the drone, but it still hit its target. Also my understanding is that Russia is manufacturing variants of these drones themselves so there could be more.

I'm guessing Ukraine has gotten better at countering these particular drones, but they're still a pain in the ass.

 

[lpetrich]

Visegrád 24 on Twitter: "BREAKING:
Ukrainian troops have liberated Hrekivka in the Luhansk region.
It means that the Ukrainian counteroffensive has now reached the Luhansk region and is back in every region of the country.
How are your annexation plans going Putin? (pic link)" / Twitter
Halfway to the highway between Svatove and Kreminna, and I've seen a lot of chatter about Ukraine moving in there.

Tempo Dolok on Twitter: "Kherson Battlefield : Ukrainian humvees dodge Russian artillery attack.
#Russian #Russia #Ukraine #Ukrainian #UkraineWar #UkraineRussiaWar #RussiaIsATerroristState (vid link)" / Twitter

Visegrád 24 on Twitter: "Ukrainian soldiers advancing across the fields of the Kherson region.
The Russians are in retreat. (vid link)" / Twitter
Some soldiers walking across a field with something burning to their left.

Aldin on Twitter: "Ukraine Force before attack on Russian Forces in Kostromka, Kherson Oblast (vid link)" / Twitter
A tank comes out of a grove of trees, and is soon followed by some other tanks.

Foxtrot_Oscar on Twitter: "@ari_hall @tinso_ww @oryxspioenkop Apologies, the APVs in the video were donated by Turkey, the Aussie supplied Bushmaster is quite similar though. They say the bushmaster is quality and very quick to change the engine. (pix link)" / Twitter

Some blocky-looking armored trucks.

 

[lpetrich]

Ukraine Weapons Tracker on Twitter: "#Ukraine: Yet another vintage T-62M tank was abandoned by Russian forces in #Kherson Oblast. (vid link)" / Twitter

Captured Russian military hardware is a major source for Ukraine.

I notice that the video has "Glory to Ukraine" in Russian and not Ukrainian.
Russian: Слава Украине
Ukrainian: Слава Україні

Ukraine Weapons Tracker on Twitter: "#Ukraine: A badly damaged Russian 2A65 Msta-B 152mm howitzer was captured by Ukrainian forces in #Kherson Oblast. (pic link)" / Twitter

Ukrainian News24 on Twitter: "Abandoned Russian position, Kherson Oblast, an engineering vehicle and a KAMAZ-5350 equipped with an MM-501 module can be seen.
#UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineWar (vid link)" / Twitter

Russian troops are filmed surrendering to Ukraine in Kherson - showing a tank with a white T-shirt(?) draped on its main gun.

 

[lpetrich]

A more strategic Russian retreat signals long fight ahead in Kherson - The Washington Post

“This is not Kharkiv,” Kostenko said. “There, they left all of their ammunition and vehicles and fled. Here, we don’t even have many trophies. They just retreated from the fight, took everything with them to their new position and are digging in anew.”

No big advances recently, though on Twitter I've found a lot of chatter about Ukraine moving toward the highway between Svatove and Kreminna. That would be another encirclement move.

 

[ZiprHead]

Russia-Ukraine war: Russians being prepared for nuclear war, warns Zelenskiy; White House says no indication of immediate Russian plans – as it happened

Ukrainian president calls situation ‘very dangerous’; White House remarks on nuclear weapons come after Biden ‘Armageddon’ comments

www.theguardian.com

Hundreds of bodies found in Kharkiv after Russians left​

In the northeastern Kharkiv region where Ukrainian forces regained a large swathe of ground in September, the bodies of 534 civilians including 19 children were found after Russian troops left, Serhiy Bolvinov of the National Police in Kharkiv told a briefing posted online Thursday.

The total included 447 bodies found in Izium, Reuters reports. He also said that investigators had found evidence of 22 sites being used as “torture rooms”. There was no immediate comment from Russia.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Russia-Ukraine war: Russians being prepared for nuclear war, warns Zelenskiy; White House says no indication of immediate Russian plans – as it happened

Ukrainian president calls situation ‘very dangerous’; White House remarks on nuclear weapons come after Biden ‘Armageddon’ comments

www.theguardian.com

Hundreds of bodies found in Kharkiv after Russians left​

In the northeastern Kharkiv region where Ukrainian forces regained a large swathe of ground in September, the bodies of 534 civilians including 19 children were found after Russian troops left, Serhiy Bolvinov of the National Police in Kharkiv told a briefing posted online Thursday.

The total included 447 bodies found in Izium, Reuters reports. He also said that investigators had found evidence of 22 sites being used as “torture rooms”. There was no immediate comment from Russia.

The Russian scum are doing the same in Enerhodar, near Zaporizhzhia.

 

[TV and credit cards]

A more strategic Russian retreat signals long fight ahead in Kherson - The Washington Post

“This is not Kharkiv,” Kostenko said. “There, they left all of their ammunition and vehicles and fled. Here, we don’t even have many trophies. They just retreated from the fight, took everything with them to their new position and are digging in anew.”

No big advances recently, though on Twitter I've found a lot of chatter about Ukraine moving toward the highway between Svatove and Kreminna. That would be another encirclement move.

My understanding is Putin has forbidden them from giving up Kherson. They should be pinned in there by next weekend. With their backs against the sea, it will be surrender, or die. I don't they will have a way across the Dnipro.

 

[lpetrich]

I've seen speculation on that, but nothing official. Which would make Kherson Putin's Stalingrad.

 

[Jarhyn]

A more strategic Russian retreat signals long fight ahead in Kherson - The Washington Post

“This is not Kharkiv,” Kostenko said. “There, they left all of their ammunition and vehicles and fled. Here, we don’t even have many trophies. They just retreated from the fight, took everything with them to their new position and are digging in anew.”

No big advances recently, though on Twitter I've found a lot of chatter about Ukraine moving toward the highway between Svatove and Kreminna. That would be another encirclement move.

My understanding is Putin has forbidden them from giving up Kherson. They should be pinned in there by next weekend. With their backs against the sea, it will be surrender, or die. I don't they will have a way across the Dnipro.

I dunno. This really seems like the kind of thing to be done before an attempted baiting into a kill-sac.

 

[Jayjay]

Lavrov says Zelensky's nuclear comments last week were the reason why Russia started the invasion in February, thus revealing that Russia is in possession of a time machine:

Russia says Zelenskiy's 'preventive strike' comments justify its Ukraine 'special operation'

"This is why a special military operation was launched to neutralise them." In a discussion with an Australian think tank on Thursday, Zelenskiy said he believed strikes were necessary to preclude any use of nuclear weapons. He did not go into detail about what kind of strikes he meant, and...

news.yahoo.com

Seriously though, I think the talk about nuclear weapons is itself normalizing their use. I'm beginning to think nuclear war is becoming more and more likely, maybe next year.

 

[steve_bank]

Reports are coming in that new conscripts being sent to Ukraine are being shook down for cell phones and gear by Russian soldiers. Fights and mutinies are resulting. Reportedly a number of theiving contract soldiers got severly beaten, locked themselves in a baracks and had to call for help. It is going to be a long war.

My understanding is that has always been the Russian army post Russian revolution.

It nay be a refction of Russian culture as it has been. Brutal from aristocrats to communist to Russian nationalists.

I read a book Diary Of A Revolutionist by Kropotkin. He was born into the upper aristocracy tier and grew up on a family plantation. H made a name for himself in scince and eventually joined the revolution. An anarchist not a communistt.

He described the life of the peasant. They had no names to the family. No first nmkes. A wagon dribr was driver and so on. The aster had firt night priveldge when a peasant git married.

If a noble killed or injured a peasant he could by an indulgence from the church. There is a reason why Russian communists were anti religion, it was a tool of oppression.


At Stalngrad familes of those who did not want to fight were threted
The current oligarchy with Putin as a self styled emperor is the same old Russian culture.

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[Jayjay]

Another smoking accident in Kerch bridge in Crimea:

Key bridge linking Crimea to Russia hit by huge explosion

Section of Kerch bridge collapses after blast, seen as major blow to Russian military prestige

www.theguardian.com

Late birthday present to Putin?

EDIT: Some images in twitter also seem to show that the road bridge has collapsed. It's not obvious how the exploding fuel tanker could affect the adjacent road so severely.



It looks like one lane of the road is out. But whatever hit that probably also at least damaged the other lane.

 

[Patooka]

Late birthday present to Putin?

Not quite...

Show

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uk.news.yahoo.com

Sorry Barbos, your Emperor literally has no clothes.