PAUL KEATING: We had a chance at the end of the Cold War to settle the status of Russia. It took us two world wars to settle the status of Germany. We had a chance in 1989-'90 to settle the status of Russia and basically the US blew it. And what did it do? It extended NATO into the boundary of Russia to the west - Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic, the Baltic States. And instead of seeing these as bridges between Russia and the West, they made them outposts, Western outposts. And of course, this inflamed Russian nationalism. In a very large measure, the US created Putin.
TONY JONES: I was going to ask you: do you think the rise of a demagogue in Russia like Putin was inevitable when you mount that kind of pressure on their border?
PAUL KEATING: Well it certainly didn't help. And the other thing is, you see, the Northern European Plain runs from the north of France to St Petersburg. Bonaparte went across is, Hitler went across it and the Russians came back across it to Berlin. It's fundamentally indefensible. Yet, we had Barack Obama up in Estonia recently making a speech about protecting the Baltic states, 300 miles wide, 200 miles deep. They're fundamentally not capable of defence against Russian infantry and artillery. So, we've made these - we've bitten off pieces of the pie crust when the Russians were weak instead of taking the longer view: this is a piece of elasticity, a bridge where we had to deal with: Russia is a great state. Whatever we think about, Russia is a great state and it has one particular characteristic: it has - alone in the world, it has the capacity to obliterate the US. So, if for that reason alone, if no other, you would have a policy towards it. You would have a policy which would be about integrating Russia into Europe. That should have been the ambition of the Clinton administration. It wasn't. It was the Clinton administration who decided to extend NATO and the Bush administration extended it further.
TONY JONES: So, a final question. We're virtually out of time. But you're not suggesting that you have any sympathy, are you, for Putin's methods of arming ethnic Russians inside some of those border states, some of those hinterland states?
PAUL KEATING: No, no, Putin's a shocker, but the thing is: one bad act begets another. The West made a shocking strategic error in extending NATO at the end of the Cold War and what we're seeing now is part of the - is part of the debris from that decision.