If Trump does drop out, who is the nominee, do they have a change?

[Jimmy Higgins]

Yeah, this election cycle has been nuts and the chance of Trump skipping town isn't out of the realm of possibility.

So the question is, who would be the nominee and would they have a chance of winning? The front runner would seemingly be Paul "Why the fuck me?" Ryan, who has establishment creds. I think John Kasich, would still be a good option. He is a stealth right-winger Governor of an extremely important battleground state. He was always polling the best. But either of them would be facing an extremely tall challenge, something that I don't think has happened before. While quite common in most nations, running a General Election with just a couple months isn't the norm in the US. This may not be a race that Presidential hopefuls would want to insert themselves in. So a main name may still not be possible.

One big question is when. If Trump does drop out, when he does so should make a big difference. Debates aren't for a while, so that wouldn't be the keystone to quitting quickly. Failing poll numbers could be, but at this point, he is still in the fight, for now. I suppose quitting before now and the debates would be the best option for the GOP. It gives them enough time to mobilize (though they still have crap for local presence in critical battleground states and there just isn't enough time) and then get someone in the debates. It'd seem unlikely the worst case scenario of Trump quitting right before the election would come to light as Trump would need to get through at least a single debate. Why go through that if you didn't want to keep going anyway.

Then the next thing comes to question, turnout. Who the heck comes out for the Republicans. A Ryan or Kasich would likely be a fresh breath of air for conservatives (actual ones) that have been grinding their teeth away over their general election options. But while appeasing them helps, how much of the base (the believers of Trump as savior) gives up? Is their hatred of Clinton strong enough to propel them to vote for Kasich or Ryan? How many stay home? Is their representation within the Republican Party big enough to matter? You'd think so based on the fact that Trump squeaked away with the nomination.

Finally, how does this make the GOP look? Does the GOP lose independent votes for the presumed incompetence of the party?

So clearly my answer is, 'I haven't the slightest clue!'

 

[credoconsolans]

Are you kidding?

There is ZERO chance of Trump stepping down.

At MOST, and only under great ego-bruising, he MIGHT run as an independent. But that guarantees him that he will lose.

 

[funinspace]

Why would Trump need to go through even a single debate? Is there some rule for that? It's not like he has followed any political rules so far....

"how does this make the GOP look?" --
You mean from how they already look now?

 

[credoconsolans]

Why would Trump need to go through even a single debate? Is there some rule for that? It's not like he has followed any political rules so far...

Good point. Does he HAVE to participate in the debates?

He's already gone on record saying he can't wait to debate Hillary. But like most idiots, when the time to put his money where his mouth is, he's starting to waffle.

His rabid supporters will accept ANY excuse from him ("I didn't need to debate her. I already know her ideas are trash and have said so..." or "The debates are rigged by 1) liberal media 2) Democrats 3) Jimmy Hoffa and I refuse to cooperate in something so corrupt...") but that might shake reasonable people awake to the fact he's an empty suit of nothing but bluster.

He can't face Hillary, he can't face any foreign power.

 

[Colonel Sanders]

Were it to happen, and it really isn't unthinkable, the GOP does have rules in place for it. Generally, from what I read in an article yesterday, what basically happens is that the delegates reconvene and choose a candidate. I don't know if they'd have to physically meet or if they could do it from their respective home states. But there is a structure in place for such an occurrence, although it's more likely it was made for the candidate who suddenly dies than for an orange turd with vocal cords.

I'd guess they'd try to draft Ryan. Opportunists would include Cruz and the ever-present Newt Gingrich. Mit Romney would raise his head and then quickly duck to avoid the tomatoes.

But whoever made the choice to take the position would be not a lot more than a stand-in dummy. "I'm just here 'cause we gotta have someone."

Third party candidates might even get more votes than the GOP nominee.

The GOP may be effectively killed, and a new major party would have to form, but likely wouldn't be able to coalesce effectively enough by 2020 to have much of a shot then. But between the the remainder of traditional Republicans, the Trumptards, the Greens, and the Libertarians, there just isn't enough agreement to create a dominant party that could challenge the Democrats.

Strange.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Why would Trump need to go through even a single debate? Is there some rule for that? It's not like he has followed any political rules so far...

Good point. Does he HAVE to participate in the debates?

He's already gone on record saying he can't wait to debate Hillary. But like most idiots, when the time to put his money where his mouth is, he's starting to waffle.

His rabid supporters will accept ANY excuse from him ("I didn't need to debate her. I already know her ideas are trash and have said so..." or "The debates are rigged by 1) liberal media 2) Democrats 3) Jimmy Hoffa and I refuse to cooperate in something so corrupt...") but that might shake reasonable people awake to the fact he's an empty suit of nothing but bluster.

He can't face Hillary, he can't face any foreign power.

Trump isn't very intelligent but he's clever enough to smoke Clinton in a debate where half the audience merely wants to be entertained and not informed. Hillary had better prepare not for cogent discussion but a lot of "I know you are but what am I" moments. She can't afford to come off as snarky. She just has to kick him in the balls when he deserves it. That's how you win a debate with people like this, by being just as clever.

 

[Shadowy Man]

If the delegates are obligated to pick the person who came in first in the primaries/caucuses because of "the will of the people", then it would seem they should equally be obligated to pick whoever came in second should the first step down.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Why would Trump need to go through even a single debate? Is there some rule for that? It's not like he has followed any political rules so far....

"how does this make the GOP look?" --
You mean from how they already look now?

I was referring to the same electorate that reelected W '04.

- - - Updated - - -

Why would Trump need to go through even a single debate? Is there some rule for that? It's not like he has followed any political rules so far...

Good point. Does he HAVE to participate in the debates?

He's already gone on record saying he can't wait to debate Hillary. But like most idiots, when the time to put his money where his mouth is, he's starting to waffle.

His rabid supporters will accept ANY excuse from him ("I didn't need to debate her. I already know her ideas are trash and have said so..." or "The debates are rigged by 1) liberal media 2) Democrats 3) Jimmy Hoffa and I refuse to cooperate in something so corrupt...") but that might shake reasonable people awake to the fact he's an empty suit of nothing but bluster.

He can't face Hillary, he can't face any foreign power.

He can't handle facing the Khans! Heck, Putin is thinking Alaska may be possible if Trump is elected.

 

[credoconsolans]

Good point. Does he HAVE to participate in the debates?

He's already gone on record saying he can't wait to debate Hillary. But like most idiots, when the time to put his money where his mouth is, he's starting to waffle.

His rabid supporters will accept ANY excuse from him ("I didn't need to debate her. I already know her ideas are trash and have said so..." or "The debates are rigged by 1) liberal media 2) Democrats 3) Jimmy Hoffa and I refuse to cooperate in something so corrupt...") but that might shake reasonable people awake to the fact he's an empty suit of nothing but bluster.

He can't face Hillary, he can't face any foreign power.

Trump isn't very intelligent but he's clever enough to smoke Clinton in a debate where half the audience merely wants to be entertained and not informed. Hillary had better prepare not for cogent discussion but a lot of "I know you are but what am I" moments. She can't afford to come off as snarky. She just has to kick him in the balls when he deserves it. That's how you win a debate with people like this, by being just as clever.

Except it's a debate, not a free for all. There are rules for debate. He will be called out when he blusters and doesn't answer the question.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Trump isn't very intelligent but he's clever enough to smoke Clinton in a debate where half the audience merely wants to be entertained and not informed. Hillary had better prepare not for cogent discussion but a lot of "I know you are but what am I" moments. She can't afford to come off as snarky. She just has to kick him in the balls when he deserves it. That's how you win a debate with people like this, by being just as clever.

Except it's a debate, not a free for all. There are rules for debate. He will be called out when he blusters and doesn't answer the question.

 

[credoconsolans]

Except it's a debate, not a free for all. There are rules for debate. He will be called out when he blusters and doesn't answer the question.

Why do you laugh? He already got called out in the earlier debates and then accused Meghan Kelly of being on her period and hurting his feelings so he pouted and didn't appear for a debate which hurt his numbers, so he had to pull it together.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Why do you laugh? He already got called out in the earlier debates and then accused Meghan Kelly of being on her period and hurting his feelings so he pouted and didn't appear for a debate which hurt his numbers, so he had to pull it together.

Candidates wander aimlessly in General Election debates.

Thank you moderator, I will respond to your question about social services in a moment, but first, let me talk about military deployment...

 

[Tom Sawyer]

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/08/03/the-rnc-can-legally-dump-donald-trump-but-it-has-to-act-fast.html

The rules are kind of iffy if they dump him or he drops out. Mainly, it has to do with whether or not it happens before the candidate's name has to be on the State's ballot. Those are kind of moot points, however, since any such action would create a giant rift in the GOP with the candidate being relentlessly mocked by Clinton for not being a real candidate and all the Trump supporters running around in circles howling like methed-up jackals and they'd be hard-pressed to get an electoral vote outside of Oklahoma.

There'd be so many people on that side just staying home in a huff on election day that the down ballot damage would likely be even worse than if they go to November with Trump as the nominee. That pretty much makes the GOP stuck with him, no matter what he says or does, but Trump could decide that this is all hard and the other kids are mean to him, so he's taking his ball and going home to cry.

 

[credoconsolans]

Why do you laugh? He already got called out in the earlier debates and then accused Meghan Kelly of being on her period and hurting his feelings so he pouted and didn't appear for a debate which hurt his numbers, so he had to pull it together.

Candidates wander aimlessly in General Election debates.

Thank you moderator, I will respond to your question about social services in a moment, but first, let me talk about military deployment...

These won't be the general election debates though. More at stake here.

 

[blastula]

Why would Trump need to go through even a single debate? Is there some rule for that? It's not like he has followed any political rules so far....

Nah, just like releasing tax returns, debates are a voluntary custom. There have been years when they didn't have any. Last time was in 70s, I believe.

 

[Shadowy Man]

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/08/03/the-rnc-can-legally-dump-donald-trump-but-it-has-to-act-fast.html

The rules are kind of iffy if they dump him or he drops out. Mainly, it has to do with whether or not it happens before the candidate's name has to be on the State's ballot.

One can always write in their vote, right? It's only an issue of making it easy to vote for a person rather than having to write their name in. If anything is broadly true about Americans it's their resistance to taking extra effort to get stuff done. So, a write-in candidate is surely DOA.

- - - Updated - - -

Why would Trump need to go through even a single debate? Is there some rule for that? It's not like he has followed any political rules so far....

Nah, just like releasing tax returns, debates are a voluntary custom.

It's also a custom to call someone a 'yellow-bellied chicken' if they refuse to rise to a challenge.

 

[blastula]

Why would Trump need to go through even a single debate? Is there some rule for that? It's not like he has followed any political rules so far....

Nah, just like releasing tax returns, debates are a voluntary custom.

It's also a custom to call someone a 'yellow-bellied chicken' if they refuse to rise to a challenge.

Yes, in 92, there was the Chicken George campaign gimmick to get HW Bush to debate Clinton.

Also, see #trumpchicken or #chickentrump

 

[blastula]

Senior GOP Officials Exploring Options if Trump Drops Out - Yahoo

That article says they can't force him out, he has to voluntarily exit. If it happened, it would be fun to watch them try to herd their delegates into an agreement. Though it also says the RNC could decide on their own without a convention.

For the RNC, it's gotta be a tough calculation whether they want Trump out or not. Hard to say which would be worse for their prospects. I think all they can do is hope that something unforeseen happens to shake up the race in their favor.

 

[credoconsolans]

Why would Trump need to go through even a single debate? Is there some rule for that? It's not like he has followed any political rules so far....

Nah, just like releasing tax returns, debates are a voluntary custom. There have been years when they didn't have any. Last time was in 70s, I believe.

Thanks.

It may be voluntary, but it's now a requirement as a show of strength. Trump has already said he 'can't wait' to debate Hillary and the debates give him the perfect opportunity to show his knowledge.

If he backs out and claims he's too busy and it's not necessary, his numbers will drop because opponents will claim - rightfully so -that he was too scared to face her and how can he be president if he can't even face a fellow American?

 

[lpetrich]

Looking at this year's Republican Presidential primaries, I find this list of possibilities:
Ted Cruz
John Kasich and Marco Rubio, approximately tied
Ben Carson
Jeb Bush
all the rest

So if the Republican leadership doesn't like Cruz, it can choose either Kasich or Rubio.