Iran Deal

[Harry Bosch]

Yep that is a key question. Russia and China will already do their best to ignore the US sanction demands. If FFvC's administration doesn't punish EU companies for dealing with Iran, then the US sanctions will be nearly 100% toothless, except to block US companies out of trade (MAGA?). Obviously, EU companies will be nervous for a while. But if FFvC just takes a victory lap and moves on, then they will start making more deals again.

EU has only wanted to be able to trade with the Mullahs. They did not care about nuclear weapons or Iranian support for terrorism. That's why they pushed for the deal as weak as it is. Unfortunately, Obama went along with it. Even more unfortunately, once the deal is done, it is difficult to scrap it. And most unfortunately of all, even though Trump is right about Iran, his administration is highly incompetent and hardly capable to dealing with this issue.

Then again, El Cheato's pack of dogs have Yuge hard ons for punishing Iran, so it is really hard to tell what will come next...

For good reason. Appeasing the Mullahs will turn out to be about as effective as appeasing Hitler was.

Well, it's Trump who is withdrawing from the agreement. The Europeans are at least attempting to make it work. Either way, probably a good thing that US soft power is wanning. Hopefully some other countries like the EU can take up the slack.

 

[Jayjay]

EU has only wanted to be able to trade with the Mullahs. They did not care about nuclear weapons or Iranian support for terrorism. That's why they pushed for the deal as weak as it is. Unfortunately, Obama went along with it. Even more unfortunately, once the deal is done, it is difficult to scrap it. And most unfortunately of all, even though Trump is right about Iran, his administration is highly incompetent and hardly capable to dealing with this issue.


For good reason. Appeasing the Mullahs will turn out to be about as effective as appeasing Hitler was.

Well, it's Trump who is withdrawing from the agreement. The Europeans are at least attempting to make it work. Either way, probably a good thing that US soft power is wanning. Hopefully some other countries like the EU can take up the slack.

Unfortunately, US sanctions may affect European companies. EU is countering with a rule that forbids companies from abiding by US sanctions, and maybe to make up the lost revenue. This puts EU and US in direct conflict with each other, and forces companies to disobey one or the other. EU made a similar threat in the 90s regarding US sanctions on Cuba, but at that time US folded. I think Donald "trade wars are easy to win" Trump is not going to surrender so easily, and there is also the option that EU might not have the political will to go through with the threat either, i.e. they could be bluffing. Of course this will play out in the next 6 months when US specifies what it's sanctions are actually going to be.

 

[Harry Bosch]

EU has only wanted to be able to trade with the Mullahs. They did not care about nuclear weapons or Iranian support for terrorism. That's why they pushed for the deal as weak as it is. Unfortunately, Obama went along with it. Even more unfortunately, once the deal is done, it is difficult to scrap it. And most unfortunately of all, even though Trump is right about Iran, his administration is highly incompetent and hardly capable to dealing with this issue.


For good reason. Appeasing the Mullahs will turn out to be about as effective as appeasing Hitler was.

Well, it's Trump who is withdrawing from the agreement. The Europeans are at least attempting to make it work. Either way, probably a good thing that US soft power is wanning. Hopefully some other countries like the EU can take up the slack.

Unfortunately, US sanctions may affect European companies. EU is countering with a rule that forbids companies from abiding by US sanctions, and maybe to make up the lost revenue. This puts EU and US in direct conflict with each other, and forces companies to disobey one or the other. EU made a similar threat in the 90s regarding US sanctions on Cuba, but at that time US folded. I think Donald "trade wars are easy to win" Trump is not going to surrender so easily, and there is also the option that EU might not have the political will to go through with the threat either, i.e. they could be bluffing. Of course this will play out in the next 6 months when US specifies what it's sanctions are actually going to be.

Totally agree. Trump is the greatest threat to our economy right now. A trade war, depressing labor supply, higher interest rates, and overheated growth could all throw us into a deep recession.

 

[Derec]

Well, it's Trump who is withdrawing from the agreement. The Europeans are at least attempting to make it work. Either way, probably a good thing that US soft power is wanning. Hopefully some other countries like the EU can take up the slack.

I do not think it's a good thing. EU is a mess, as we see from Brexit, possible Itexit and their utter impotence in dealing with the continuing flood of mass migrants into their countries.

EU foreign policy is virtually non-existent and vis-a-vis Iran Deal consisted solely in getting EU companies their coveted trade deals no matter what it means for international security.

Furthermore, UK and EU now have a relatively large and rapidly increasing Muslim population (which tends to be very antisemitic) that they will have to appease, resulting in a more anti-Israel stance. Which also means looking the other way when Iran supports Hamas and Hezbollah terrorists.


Leaving EU to deal with the likes of Iran is Neville Chamberlain all over again. Except Churchill did not have to deal with nuclear weapons.