Is Crypto dying or just dropping for the moment?

[Jarhyn]

Something big must have cashed out at just before 3 AM EDT this morning. Everything listed on coindesk.com instantly dropped 8% at that time. Maybe a failed DeFi liquidated then?

The thing I found interesting looking at Bitcoin's chart was that there was virtually no connection between trade volume and Bitcoin value. The volume of Bitcoin seemed relatively cyclical. Bitcoin went up, around the same. Massive crash, about the same.

As I keep saying, the volume is caused by it's actual use, those who buy and sell bitcoins at transactional volumes rather than at speculative volumes. They do so for drugs, constantly, and their loss from speculation is less than the traditional loss from normal money laundering or getting scammed.

It doesn't matter if the market is volatile. People will buy their bitcoins, buy their monero, buy their drugs, and the other side will sell their drugs, sell their monero, "sell" some NFTs, actually sell some NFTs, sell their bitcoins, and have cash, because it's cheaper and safer doing all that than going out on the street.

 

[ramoss]

It's value is based on absolutely nothing at all, so confidence that other people will continue joining in at the bottom of the pyramid scheme is the only thing which keeps it making money. This means that the more people who have issues with it, the less suckers there are to bleed dry. The people who understand what bitcoin is (or rather, what it isn't) have been raking in the cash, but there comes a point where they need to decide whether or not it's time to cut their losses because too many have caught onto their scam. Once more of those start saying that it's time, the descending spiral begins.

There isn't a currency in the world that isn't based on anything but confidence. Right now, the problem is a lot of the cryptocurrancies are being treated as a commodity in the marketplace, rather than a currency. Crypto's should be used as an alternative to credit cards, not as an alternative for investing.

 

[Harry Bosch]

It's value is based on absolutely nothing at all, so confidence that other people will continue joining in at the bottom of the pyramid scheme is the only thing which keeps it making money. This means that the more people who have issues with it, the less suckers there are to bleed dry. The people who understand what bitcoin is (or rather, what it isn't) have been raking in the cash, but there comes a point where they need to decide whether or not it's time to cut their losses because too many have caught onto their scam. Once more of those start saying that it's time, the descending spiral begins.

There isn't a currency in the world that isn't based on anything but confidence. Right now, the problem is a lot of the cryptocurrancies are being treated as a commodity in the marketplace, rather than a currency. Crypto's should be used as an alternative to credit cards, not as an alternative for investing.

Well, that is pretty interesting. What would be the advantage of using crypto rather than credit cards?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

It's value is based on absolutely nothing at all, so confidence that other people will continue joining in at the bottom of the pyramid scheme is the only thing which keeps it making money. This means that the more people who have issues with it, the less suckers there are to bleed dry. The people who understand what bitcoin is (or rather, what it isn't) have been raking in the cash, but there comes a point where they need to decide whether or not it's time to cut their losses because too many have caught onto their scam. Once more of those start saying that it's time, the descending spiral begins.

There isn't a currency in the world that isn't based on anything but confidence.

With the one minor caveat that the confidence of nation based currencies is based on economic models and data. Bitcoin is based on confidence from...

...well nothing.

Right now, the problem is a lot of the cryptocurrancies are being treated as a commodity in the marketplace, rather than a currency. Crypto's should be used as an alternative to credit cards, not as an alternative for investing.

It isn't a currency, so it shouldn't be expected to behave like one.

 

[Swammerdami]

There isn't a currency in the world that isn't based on anything but confidence. Right now, the problem is a lot of the cryptocurrancies are being treated as a commodity in the marketplace, rather than a currency. Crypto's should be used as an alternative to credit cards, not as an alternative for investing.

Nitpick: The first sentence has three negatives, as I've shown with reddening. I think that for your intended meaning you wanted just two negatives (or four!). (You also probably intended "debit/ATM cards": instead of "credit cards.")

Bitcoin has always seemed rather flawed to me in various ways. But I won't try to predict its future. A large infrastructure has developed to process Bitcoins (e.g. to mine blocks); and those investors have an incentive to keep Bitcoin active: Perhaps they will engage in pump-dump schemes to maintain interest in their "currency."

 

[Harry Bosch]

There isn't a currency in the world that isn't based on anything but confidence. Right now, the problem is a lot of the cryptocurrancies are being treated as a commodity in the marketplace, rather than a currency. Crypto's should be used as an alternative to credit cards, not as an alternative for investing.

Nitpick: The first sentence has three negatives, as I've shown with reddening. I think that for your intended meaning you wanted just two negatives (or four!). (You also probably intended "debit/ATM cards": instead of "credit cards.")

Bitcoin has always seemed rather flawed to me in various ways. But I won't try to predict its future. A large infrastructure has developed to process Bitcoins (e.g. to mine blocks); and those investors have an incentive to keep Bitcoin active: Perhaps they will engage in pump-dump schemes to maintain interest in their "currency."

Oh, I think that the creators of all the bit coin investments and the "NDF;s" have been very guilty of pump-dump schemes. The creators of the NDFs have made wild money.

 

[Artemus]

Something called Bancor is the latest to suspend a service, this one called Impermanent Loss Protection. I guess this means that the recent losses are permanent????

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Bancor, whose marketing slogan is "Earn safe DeFi yields on your favorite tokens", said the move was a temporary one "to protect the protocol and its users".

Wait... the insurance was to protect the user. So no longer insuring losses protects the user more? Man crypto is the Bizarro currency.

On Twitter people don't know what to do. Some say stay, some say go. Bancor certainly gave them the "you really should just accept your losses now before you lose it all" signal.

 

[Canard DuJour]

It's value is based on absolutely nothing at all, so confidence that other people will continue joining in at the bottom of the pyramid scheme is the only thing which keeps it making money. This means that the more people who have issues with it, the less suckers there are to bleed dry. The people who understand what bitcoin is (or rather, what it isn't) have been raking in the cash, but there comes a point where they need to decide whether or not it's time to cut their losses because too many have caught onto their scam. Once more of those start saying that it's time, the descending spiral begins.

There isn't a currency in the world that isn't based on anything but confidence.

With the one minor caveat that the confidence of nation based currencies is based on economic models and data. Bitcoin is based on confidence from...

...well nothing.

Another huge difference is tax. People can always ditch crypto, but must have sovereign currencies (USD, GBP etc) to settle tax liabilities.

There's a reason monetary sovereigns tax in their own currencies and it isn't because they need our money. They need us to need to need their currency.

 

[Jarhyn]

It's value is based on absolutely nothing at all, so confidence that other people will continue joining in at the bottom of the pyramid scheme is the only thing which keeps it making money. This means that the more people who have issues with it, the less suckers there are to bleed dry. The people who understand what bitcoin is (or rather, what it isn't) have been raking in the cash, but there comes a point where they need to decide whether or not it's time to cut their losses because too many have caught onto their scam. Once more of those start saying that it's time, the descending spiral begins.

There isn't a currency in the world that isn't based on anything but confidence. Right now, the problem is a lot of the cryptocurrancies are being treated as a commodity in the marketplace, rather than a currency. Crypto's should be used as an alternative to credit cards, not as an alternative for investing.

Well, that is pretty interesting. What would be the advantage of using crypto rather than credit cards?

Crypto does not require trust-based banking. I can send you money, you can send me money, and the transaction gets processed by the users of the platform.

I can, as an end user, develop legal and fully functional transaction systems because I as the user am the authority of the transaction.

With credit cards, you functionally borrow transaction authority from a trusted party, and "trust" their ledgers.

The fundamental basis of crypto requires cryptographic signatures, which don't require trust.

Also, you don't have to worry about whether banks like what you sell. Sell porn? Banks don't want to even be associated with the account. Sell drugs? The only banks that hold such won't hold yours, because you aren't involved with their dirty clients.

Crypto transactors don't have a worry about that.

 

[Harry Bosch]

It's value is based on absolutely nothing at all, so confidence that other people will continue joining in at the bottom of the pyramid scheme is the only thing which keeps it making money. This means that the more people who have issues with it, the less suckers there are to bleed dry. The people who understand what bitcoin is (or rather, what it isn't) have been raking in the cash, but there comes a point where they need to decide whether or not it's time to cut their losses because too many have caught onto their scam. Once more of those start saying that it's time, the descending spiral begins.

There isn't a currency in the world that isn't based on anything but confidence. Right now, the problem is a lot of the cryptocurrancies are being treated as a commodity in the marketplace, rather than a currency. Crypto's should be used as an alternative to credit cards, not as an alternative for investing.

Well, that is pretty interesting. What would be the advantage of using crypto rather than credit cards?

Crypto does not require trust-based banking. I can send you money, you can send me money, and the transaction gets processed by the users of the platform.

I can, as an end user, develop legal and fully functional transaction systems because I as the user am the authority of the transaction.

With credit cards, you functionally borrow transaction authority from a trusted party, and "trust" their ledgers.

The fundamental basis of crypto requires cryptographic signatures, which don't require trust.

Also, you don't have to worry about whether banks like what you sell. Sell porn? Banks don't want to even be associated with the account. Sell drugs? The only banks that hold such won't hold yours, because you aren't involved with their dirty clients.

Crypto transactors don't have a worry about that.

Yes, I see this. Can crypto users get a cut of the profits from the transitions? I get 2% from my credit card back.

 

[Jarhyn]

It's value is based on absolutely nothing at all, so confidence that other people will continue joining in at the bottom of the pyramid scheme is the only thing which keeps it making money. This means that the more people who have issues with it, the less suckers there are to bleed dry. The people who understand what bitcoin is (or rather, what it isn't) have been raking in the cash, but there comes a point where they need to decide whether or not it's time to cut their losses because too many have caught onto their scam. Once more of those start saying that it's time, the descending spiral begins.

There isn't a currency in the world that isn't based on anything but confidence. Right now, the problem is a lot of the cryptocurrancies are being treated as a commodity in the marketplace, rather than a currency. Crypto's should be used as an alternative to credit cards, not as an alternative for investing.

Well, that is pretty interesting. What would be the advantage of using crypto rather than credit cards?

Crypto does not require trust-based banking. I can send you money, you can send me money, and the transaction gets processed by the users of the platform.

I can, as an end user, develop legal and fully functional transaction systems because I as the user am the authority of the transaction.

With credit cards, you functionally borrow transaction authority from a trusted party, and "trust" their ledgers.

The fundamental basis of crypto requires cryptographic signatures, which don't require trust.

Also, you don't have to worry about whether banks like what you sell. Sell porn? Banks don't want to even be associated with the account. Sell drugs? The only banks that hold such won't hold yours, because you aren't involved with their dirty clients.

Crypto transactors don't have a worry about that.

Yes, I see this. Can crypto users get a cut of the profits from the transitions? I get 2% from my credit card back.

Crypto users see a different benefit than from profits and Cashback. There is a significant percentage of every transaction, much in line with the Satoshi cost of processing a crypto transaction, that is soaked by someone in most CC transactions, and an additional social cost insofar as the primary vehicle to spend money currently is the same one that accrues debt.

That 2% you get is farmed from the 18% paid by others trying to get that 2% but not understanding about interest.

More, crypto is targeted at transactions that occur in "black" moneyspace rather than "red" moneyspace in the first place so structures like that, and bleeds, well, they aren't supposed to be happening which is why this DeFi bullshit is so fucking annoying, and honestly stupid.

You have a currency engineered to prevent deficit use and people are trying to bring in deficit loan banking?

The whole point was a currency you can't flake out on.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

It's value is based on absolutely nothing at all, so confidence that other people will continue joining in at the bottom of the pyramid scheme is the only thing which keeps it making money. This means that the more people who have issues with it, the less suckers there are to bleed dry. The people who understand what bitcoin is (or rather, what it isn't) have been raking in the cash, but there comes a point where they need to decide whether or not it's time to cut their losses because too many have caught onto their scam. Once more of those start saying that it's time, the descending spiral begins.

There isn't a currency in the world that isn't based on anything but confidence. Right now, the problem is a lot of the cryptocurrancies are being treated as a commodity in the marketplace, rather than a currency. Crypto's should be used as an alternative to credit cards, not as an alternative for investing.

Well, that is pretty interesting. What would be the advantage of using crypto rather than credit cards?

The people who want to move money around tracelessly--drug dealers etc.

 

[Jarhyn]

It's value is based on absolutely nothing at all, so confidence that other people will continue joining in at the bottom of the pyramid scheme is the only thing which keeps it making money. This means that the more people who have issues with it, the less suckers there are to bleed dry. The people who understand what bitcoin is (or rather, what it isn't) have been raking in the cash, but there comes a point where they need to decide whether or not it's time to cut their losses because too many have caught onto their scam. Once more of those start saying that it's time, the descending spiral begins.

There isn't a currency in the world that isn't based on anything but confidence. Right now, the problem is a lot of the cryptocurrancies are being treated as a commodity in the marketplace, rather than a currency. Crypto's should be used as an alternative to credit cards, not as an alternative for investing.

Well, that is pretty interesting. What would be the advantage of using crypto rather than credit cards?

The people who want to move money around tracelessly--drug dealers etc.

Or whom banks refuse to accept transactions of "because they don't want to be associated with ____"

 

[bilby]

It's value is based on absolutely nothing at all, so confidence that other people will continue joining in at the bottom of the pyramid scheme is the only thing which keeps it making money. This means that the more people who have issues with it, the less suckers there are to bleed dry. The people who understand what bitcoin is (or rather, what it isn't) have been raking in the cash, but there comes a point where they need to decide whether or not it's time to cut their losses because too many have caught onto their scam. Once more of those start saying that it's time, the descending spiral begins.

There isn't a currency in the world that isn't based on anything but confidence. Right now, the problem is a lot of the cryptocurrancies are being treated as a commodity in the marketplace, rather than a currency. Crypto's should be used as an alternative to credit cards, not as an alternative for investing.

Most currencies are based on something other than confidence - They are based on taxation.

You can use any currencies you like, but when Uncle Sam comes a-knocking, he won’t take anything other than US Dollars.

So regardless of how much, or how little, confidence people have in the greenback, anyone who pays tax in the United States has to buy enough of them to pay their taxes. Even if this were the only time people bought US$, it would put a floor under the value of the currency that is not present for currencies in which nobody is required to pay their taxes.

The same applies to the euro, Yen, Pound Sterling, Australian Dollar, and most other national currencies - as long as there is a government that will accept nothing else, and that can require people to pay tax to them, those currencies are supported by the demand for them that taxpayers are forced to have, no matter how little confidence they might have in their value.

Indeed, that’s what confidence IS - the expectation that you will be able to exchange the currency for something else.

If the US$ collapses, people will still be able to exchange them for “not being incarcerated by agents of the IRS”, even if nobody else will accept them as payment for anything else. But that means that people will accept them as payment for other things - because those people don’t want to be incarcerated by IRS agents either, so they need to obtain sufficient of them to pay their taxes.

 

[ramoss]

It's value is based on absolutely nothing at all, so confidence that other people will continue joining in at the bottom of the pyramid scheme is the only thing which keeps it making money. This means that the more people who have issues with it, the less suckers there are to bleed dry. The people who understand what bitcoin is (or rather, what it isn't) have been raking in the cash, but there comes a point where they need to decide whether or not it's time to cut their losses because too many have caught onto their scam. Once more of those start saying that it's time, the descending spiral begins.

There isn't a currency in the world that isn't based on anything but confidence. Right now, the problem is a lot of the cryptocurrancies are being treated as a commodity in the marketplace, rather than a currency. Crypto's should be used as an alternative to credit cards, not as an alternative for investing.

Most currencies are based on something other than confidence - They are based on taxation.

You can use any currencies you like, but when Uncle Sam comes a-knocking, he won’t take anything other than US Dollars.

So regardless of how much, or how little, confidence people have in the greenback, anyone who pays tax in the United States has to buy enough of them to pay their taxes. Even if this were the only time people bought US$, it would put a floor under the value of the currency that is not present for currencies in which nobody is required to pay their taxes.

The same applies to the euro, Yen, Pound Sterling, Australian Dollar, and most other national currencies - as long as there is a government that will accept nothing else, and that can require people to pay tax to them, those currencies are supported by the demand for them that taxpayers are forced to have, no matter how little confidence they might have in their value.

Indeed, that’s what confidence IS - the expectation that you will be able to exchange the currency for something else.

If the US$ collapses, people will still be able to exchange them for “not being incarcerated by agents of the IRS”, even if nobody else will accept them as payment for anything else. But that means that people will accept them as payment for other things - because those people don’t want to be incarcerated by IRS agents either, so they need to obtain sufficient of them to pay their taxes.

And, when the trust in the government goes, and the economy goes, so goes that government's currency. The dollar does not have any actual intrinsic value. It's not like money is minted from precious metals anymore.

 

[bilby]

It's value is based on absolutely nothing at all, so confidence that other people will continue joining in at the bottom of the pyramid scheme is the only thing which keeps it making money. This means that the more people who have issues with it, the less suckers there are to bleed dry. The people who understand what bitcoin is (or rather, what it isn't) have been raking in the cash, but there comes a point where they need to decide whether or not it's time to cut their losses because too many have caught onto their scam. Once more of those start saying that it's time, the descending spiral begins.

There isn't a currency in the world that isn't based on anything but confidence. Right now, the problem is a lot of the cryptocurrancies are being treated as a commodity in the marketplace, rather than a currency. Crypto's should be used as an alternative to credit cards, not as an alternative for investing.

Most currencies are based on something other than confidence - They are based on taxation.

You can use any currencies you like, but when Uncle Sam comes a-knocking, he won’t take anything other than US Dollars.

So regardless of how much, or how little, confidence people have in the greenback, anyone who pays tax in the United States has to buy enough of them to pay their taxes. Even if this were the only time people bought US$, it would put a floor under the value of the currency that is not present for currencies in which nobody is required to pay their taxes.

The same applies to the euro, Yen, Pound Sterling, Australian Dollar, and most other national currencies - as long as there is a government that will accept nothing else, and that can require people to pay tax to them, those currencies are supported by the demand for them that taxpayers are forced to have, no matter how little confidence they might have in their value.

Indeed, that’s what confidence IS - the expectation that you will be able to exchange the currency for something else.

If the US$ collapses, people will still be able to exchange them for “not being incarcerated by agents of the IRS”, even if nobody else will accept them as payment for anything else. But that means that people will accept them as payment for other things - because those people don’t want to be incarcerated by IRS agents either, so they need to obtain sufficient of them to pay their taxes.

And, when the trust in the government goes, and the economy goes, so goes that government's currency. The dollar does not have any actual intrinsic value. It's not like money is minted from precious metals anymore.

It’s not like gold has much intrinsic value. It’s only valuable for the same reason bitcoin is - people expect (trust) others to accept it as being valuable. The expected spot price of a commodity metal with few practical uses, and which has stockpiles of unused refined metal sitting idle in warehouses (such as Fort Knox) in vast quantities, is pretty small. Gold isn’t useful for much except dentistry and jewellery, and there’s more than enough inventory of the stuff to flood both markets, as well as those such as electronics and optical coatings that only use tiny amounts anyway. Paper money may be more intrinsically valuable than gold - you can’t wipe your arse with a gold bar.

But you don’t need to trust the government in order to pay taxes - you just need to fear them.

 

[ramoss]

It's value is based on absolutely nothing at all, so confidence that other people will continue joining in at the bottom of the pyramid scheme is the only thing which keeps it making money. This means that the more people who have issues with it, the less suckers there are to bleed dry. The people who understand what bitcoin is (or rather, what it isn't) have been raking in the cash, but there comes a point where they need to decide whether or not it's time to cut their losses because too many have caught onto their scam. Once more of those start saying that it's time, the descending spiral begins.

There isn't a currency in the world that isn't based on anything but confidence. Right now, the problem is a lot of the cryptocurrancies are being treated as a commodity in the marketplace, rather than a currency. Crypto's should be used as an alternative to credit cards, not as an alternative for investing.

Well, that is pretty interesting. What would be the advantage of using crypto rather than credit cards?

The people who want to move money around tracelessly--drug dealers etc.

Or whom banks refuse to accept transactions of "because they don't want to be associated with ____"

Or, lower fees for transactions.

 

[Swammerdami]

(Disclaimer: I know a LITTLE about Bitcoin and nothing whatsoever about any other cryptocoin. Life is too short to be interested in uninteresting details.)

Recently I was directed (via this thread?) to a conversation on a message-board devoted to cryptocoins. A noobie complained that one coin seemed to be a scam. The experienced coin-jockey laughed and said they're ALL scams; the trick is to jump off before the bubbles burst.

I hear that one crypto-coin was designed to be always worth exactly one U.S. Dollar! This seemed to contradict the whole idea of cryptocoins, which is to ride a tulip-like bull to heights of glory or depths of despair. Evidently the crypto-fans also found the idea of a stable coin hilarious — TerraUSD and LUNA coins lost tens of billions in value in one tumultuous week. In the olden times that loss would be a big deal. Nowadays, it's old news: stay tuned for a bigger financial disaster next week!

What happened to Beanie Babies? At least its bubbling boomers still have their dolls. Do those left with Terra-coins at least get a T-shirt?

And by the way, the BitCoin "blockchain," instead of being kept in a refrigerated vault in "Iron Mountain" like BankOfAmerica's records, is just bounced around a network of anarchists. To call it "democratic" ignores that it isn't "one man one vote" or even "One coin one vote." Has anyone studied what percent of the bit-mining capacity would have to be controlled by China (or Russia or Charles Koch) for them to push aside any blockchain blocks not to their liking? I guess part of the protection against that is the $25 Billion annual cost of Bitcoin mining. (There's that pesky 'B' again. That figure is based on the global average electricity price. I guess much mining is in cheap-electricity Iceland where BitCoin mining may now be a major component of Iceland's economy!)

And there's no value-added in BitCoin. If you bought the Coin for a nickel and sold for a dime you won't care about the $25 Billion, but if you bought for a dime and sold for a nickel you can write "I helped pay for that wasted CO2 " on your T-shirt.

Crypto does not require trust-based banking. I can send you money, you can send me money, and the transaction gets processed by the users of the platform.

. . . Also, you don't have to worry about whether banks like what you sell. . . .

Crypto transactors don't have a worry about that.

Banks (and central-bank money) in the prosperous democracies have a pretty good track record in recent decades of preserving value for users. Could this change overnight when the next financial crisis dwarfs the 2008 crisis in scale? Sure. But do you really think BitCoin will hold up while Dollar, Euro and Yen are plummeting?

And these defenses of cryptocoin seem to acknowledge that their main "legitimate" use is to finance illegitimate transactions. Note moreover that devices to help the rich hide their profits are NOT a path to lessen income inequality.

Finally "transaction gets processed by the users of the platform" is somewhat misleading. Doesn't a BitCoin transaction require that a fee be offered to the Miner? And, the user waits an hour or so, sees if his transaction has been mined; if not, he resubmits offering a higher fee. It's to avoid that bother that most BitCoin "investors" use an exchange, giving them the worst of both worlds. Ask the customers of Gerald Cotten how they feel about BitCoin's oh-so-very-clever security.

Most currencies are based on something other than confidence - They are based on taxation.

And, when the trust in the government goes, and the economy goes, so goes that government's currency. The dollar does not have any actual intrinsic value. It's not like money is minted from precious metals anymore.

Central-bank money is based on more than just taxation. The FRB has committed to try to keep the dollar's value at 98% of the previous year's $1 consumer basket. (They do this primarily to support banks and businesses, not consumers. Obviously the 98% target may fall short, as it has in 2022.) Anyway, most dollars are held temporarily and funneled into land, houses, stocks, or interest-producing paper.

I'm as pessimistic as the next guy, and one day our grandchildren may say "Fiat money?? What in hell were they thinking of???" Dollars, euros, yen —maybe they'll all end up like the Bubbling Tulips in the 18th century. But you think BitCoins aren't a Bubble also? Let me sell you a bridge in Brooklyn.

 

[Jarhyn]

Ask the customers of Gerald Cotten how they feel about BitCoin's oh-so-very-clever security

So, I'm just discussing the facts about cryptocurrency as to how it's used.

The illegitimacy of the majority of actual use of bitcoins does not really change the fact that's how they are used.

On one side is an ecosystem of money laundering, and on the other side is a system of people riding bubbles generated largely by the money laundering. The whole thing is a disgusting waste.

The issue is that the concepts discovered in cryptocurrency markets have applicability and value if applied to a real currency, and the fact is, trustless postal banking is very appealing as a concept.

As to 'transaction fees', they are essentially bounties offered on bidding a transaction into a block. The miner tries a collection of random transactions, and when the transaction gets processed successfully to a block, the transaction is confirmed, which then carries to later blocks.

One feature of cryptocurrency tech are multisig wallets and multisig transactions.

I will point out that as long as drugs are illegal, this stupidity will continue.