You hope I am right about what?
That the US dollar in not headed into oblivion.
Well, I didn't say that, but I would agree. The dollar may fall as compared to some other currencies substantially at some future timeframe. But it will not more go into oblivion than the British Pound did 70 some years ago.
You seem to be making a big deal out of the US having the 'largest debt in the history of the world', like that in itself is really really important.
It is not only important to myself but it has been and continues to be important to many others as well. Bitcoin did not just spring up out of no where because it was good for the criminals. It was invented to be a stable hold of wealth that could not be financially manipulated by anyone or any government. And the perceived irresponsible management of the fed is the single most important reason people invest in bit coin today. Without said FEAR of the dollar the price of bitcoin would be lower by orders of magnitude.
I'd say crypto currencies rose largely out of the reality that technological improvements allowed for the advent of them more than anything. But w/o these crypto currencies, the value of gold probably would have risen much higher in the last 2 years.
I have my concerns about the worlds leading central banks ballooning their balance sheets with all sorts of stuff via created money over the last 2 crisis's and government debt levels. I tend to read Doug Noland for my fear factor, but he isn't shrill nor thinks a collapse is going to happen say next year, and he is loaded with real facts. But I don't only read his POV, nor his long term version of 'the end is nigh'. John Mauldin puts out a interesting regular email opinion piece with a long term positive outlook, while still concerned about debt growth.
Thank you for sharing. I will give both of these guys a read.
Doug Noland has been at this for over 20 years with the same Bubble message, but he also hasn't claimed that things would implode anytime soon. He puts out a weekly summary that is interesting:
http://creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com/p/credit-bubble-bulletin.html
To read John Mauldin's regular stuff you have to sign up for emails, and he does soft sell various financial investment services, so be aware:
https://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts
On the other side, I like to read Prof. Barry Eichengreen, though he doesn't put out a lot. He also publishes in a good site called Project Syndicate.
https://eml.berkeley.edu/~eichengr/reviews.shtml
https://www.project-syndicate.org/
But first one needs to at least get the basic data right, and especially relative to everything else. As it is an online PDF, I have referenced it below, instead of trying to quote it. But even in the relative terms of other economies, the US and FR are hardly the dirtiest of shirts. If 'the end is nigh' as you imply with your shrill sentences, then it most likely will appear in other parts of the world. One other thing about the US debt levels, the US debt is still below where we were at from the end of WWII, for now at least.Ref:
https://www.yardeni.com/pub/peacockfedecbassets.pdf
From your own reference the fact everyones total assets are rising like a hockey stick excepting for China is very telling. And there is no sense of urgency from our leaders this will change. If anything, it looks more likely the hockey stick will become more vertical with each coming year.
But my own reference only contained a partial picture, as I was dealing with what you focused upon. China's total private/public debt isn't in any better shape than the US. See the first interactive chart (Total debt-to-GDP ratios in major economies) in the below reference. The US, China, and the EU are all around 290% for total debt of all types.
Ref:
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/29/china-economy-charts-show-how-much-debt-has-grown.html
Even when we cross that percentage number, it is certainly not the same world as when WWII ended. The US is not on the gold standard, and probably has more financial flexibility due to that. As I have already shown, a whole potpourri of other countries have worse government debt to GDP levels.
The central bankers are clearly working with each other and that may buy some time.
I'm not trying to tell you how it will all end up in 10-20 years, partly as I have no idea...as this is tangential to this crypto subject thread I'll stop here.
It looks like a lot of financial engineering with smoke and mirrors to me. And it looks that way to the bitcoin investors too. What everyone wants to forget is that you can not wave a financial wand and be well off unless you steal from someone else or actually add real value to your economy. Our service economy of lawyers, bar tenders, government and restaurant workers is certainly not going to keep our standard of living high. Without the actual production of real consumable goods, with the manufacturing we need (and once had), it is only matter of time for real producers of the world (China) to no longer take dollars for their production.
But like I said before I sincerely hope you are right and I am wrong. I am from the baby boomer generation and hoping for a non drama style retirement. The last thing I need to see right now is a complete failure of all my US dollar denominated assets.
I have to say that what the central bankers are doing is unsettling to me as they have gone into uncharted territory. However, what so many critics of these modern adventures seem to ignore is the extreme jolts governments and economies had when it was all tied to physical things like gold and silver. Spain once was a very dominant world power. They accumulated vast amounts of gold, and it blew up in their face in a big way. (the short version)
I don't see any 'failure' of the dollar in the future, but sure anything is possible. I won't be eligible for full SS until 2030, so I figure that is when it will hit its funding wall if Congress does nothing. But even that isn't the end. Worst case would be a 20-25% reduction in benefits, but that again assumes that the Congressional Critters do absolutely nothing.
