maxparrish
Veteran Member
- Joined
- Aug 30, 2005
- Messages
- 2,262
- Location
- SF Bay Area
- Basic Beliefs
- Libertarian-Conservative, Agnostic.
Two weeks ago I would have said that it was increasingly likely that the GOP would not capture the Senate, especially after the Kansas debacle. Recent polling is picking up a significant shift that suggests they have a better than even chance of doing so. States that were once thought to go Democratic are now in play. Unexpectedly the GOP leads in Colorado, and it seems they are more likely to take Arkansas and Louisiana, and perhaps Iowa. Georgia and Kentucky still lean GOP, and Kansas has recently flipped to Roberts in the lead. Only North Carolina seems out of reach.
I'd say the GOP will get 50-52 seats. They will likely take formerly Democratic seats in South Dakota, Montana, West Virginia, Arkansas, Louisiana and Alaska. They will likely take Kansas, and one more, either Colorado or Iowa (both starting to trend GOP). It is unlikely they can take N.C. or N.H. Complicating the numbers is the fact that there is increasing speculation that Manchin might "jump" parties (Dem to Rep) if the Senate is split and the offer is right.
The huge, very well organized, and massively funded ground game of the Democrats in Colorado may save that seat in spite of the polls, (and the 50 million dollar wealth advantage of the Dem's may determine other races as well). Still, the trends are increasingly GOP.
I'd say the GOP will get 50-52 seats. They will likely take formerly Democratic seats in South Dakota, Montana, West Virginia, Arkansas, Louisiana and Alaska. They will likely take Kansas, and one more, either Colorado or Iowa (both starting to trend GOP). It is unlikely they can take N.C. or N.H. Complicating the numbers is the fact that there is increasing speculation that Manchin might "jump" parties (Dem to Rep) if the Senate is split and the offer is right.
The huge, very well organized, and massively funded ground game of the Democrats in Colorado may save that seat in spite of the polls, (and the 50 million dollar wealth advantage of the Dem's may determine other races as well). Still, the trends are increasingly GOP.