Mid-term elections: Not looking so good for the Dems

[Axulus]

Control of the Senate is expected to shift to the Republicians:

Current betting odds on Paddy Power website predict a 69.2% probability that Republicans will gain control of the Senate

http://www.aei-ideas.org/2014/10/cu...-republicans-will-gain-control-of-the-senate/

Republicans have a 56.5% chance of winning a majority[in the senate].
-Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/senate-forecast/

And they are all but certain to remain a minority in the house.

What might explain these events, especially given that the economy has been gaining steam lately? The recent jobs report wasn't half bad.

 

[Ford]

What might explain these events, especially given that the economy has been gaining steam lately? The recent jobs report wasn't half bad.

Perhaps it is the same thing that explains why an objectively bad movie like "Sharknado" is not only successful, but made enough money to justify a sequel.


I mean, complete GOP control of government in the middle of the last decade led to the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Pretty much everything we're dealing with today in the Middle East is a result of short sighted GOP foreign policy.


Maybe at some primal level the USA just enjoys shitty leadership?

 

[Horatio Parker]

According to Princeton Election Consortium:

Election Day Probability of 50 or more Democratic+Independent seats: 63%

PEC uses only poll data and their methodology is transparent.

It's a close race.

 

[Underseer]

Control of the Senate is expected to shift to the Republicians:



http://www.aei-ideas.org/2014/10/cu...-republicans-will-gain-control-of-the-senate/

Republicans have a 56.5% chance of winning a majority[in the senate].
-Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/senate-forecast/

And they are all but certain to remain a minority in the house.

What might explain these events, especially given that the economy has been gaining steam lately? The recent jobs report wasn't half bad.

What is there to understand?

Democratic voters only seem to give a shit when there are presidential candidates on the ballot. Most Democratic voters don't bother voting in off-year elections.

 

[Axulus]

Control of the Senate is expected to shift to the Republicians:



http://www.aei-ideas.org/2014/10/cu...-republicans-will-gain-control-of-the-senate/



http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/senate-forecast/

And they are all but certain to remain a minority in the house.

What might explain these events, especially given that the economy has been gaining steam lately? The recent jobs report wasn't half bad.

What is there to understand?

Democratic voters only seem to give a shit when there are presidential candidates on the ballot. Most Democratic voters don't bother voting in off-year elections.

Could you provide a source on how big of an effect this has?

 

[bilby]

What is there to understand?

Democratic voters only seem to give a shit when there are presidential candidates on the ballot. Most Democratic voters don't bother voting in off-year elections.

Could you provide a source on how big of an effect this has?

According to Nate Silver,

We estimate that on average in midterm years since 1990, registered voter polls have had a 2.6 percentage-point Democratic bias — compared against likely voter polls, which have been unbiased.

The data in presidential election years is somewhat more equivocal. On average, registered voter polls of Senate races have had a 1.1 percentage-point Democratic bias in these years, we estimate...

So that would be a difference of 1.5 percentage points on average since 1990, although no doubt individual years vary quite a bit.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Control of the Senate is expected to shift to the Republicians:



http://www.aei-ideas.org/2014/10/cu...-republicans-will-gain-control-of-the-senate/

Republicans have a 56.5% chance of winning a majority[in the senate].
-Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/senate-forecast/

And they are all but certain to remain a minority in the house.

What might explain these events, especially given that the economy has been gaining steam lately? The recent jobs report wasn't half bad.

1) Senate gives overrepresentation to states with no people in them.
2) House seats have been terribly gerrymandered making a majority for Democrats extremely difficult
3) Indies for some reason have bought into the Republican bullshit, despite the Republicans being an absolute travesty in the House and Senate since 2009.

Higgins still stands by the 51 to 49 majority for the Democrats, however.

 

[Nice Squirrel]

This and these senators were elected on the coattails of Obama's victory over McCain in 2008. In 2016 the Senate is expected to flip to a comfortable Democratic majority as Tea Partiers who were elected in 2010 defend their seats.

 

[untermensche]

Republicans able to win despite being wrong about everything this century is really just a sign of how watered down and unappealing most Democrats are.

 

[SimpleDon]

I don't have much compassion for the Democrats. They decided to move to right to 'box in' the Republicans rather than to offer a real alternative.

This has pushed the Republicans further right into the full blown reactionary, anti-everything, wingnut conspiracy fearing mode that we see everyday. Perhaps it is the Democrats only choice because the mood of the country is overwhelmingly conservative.

This movement to the right by the Democrats has validated the anti-progress, know nothing, everything to the already rich, movement conservatism, rather than offering an alternative to it. The country is suffering because of it and will continue to suffer until there is a real progressive movement in the country.

 

[prideandfall]

What might explain these events, especially given that the economy has been gaining steam lately? The recent jobs report wasn't half bad.

the same thing that explains every senate, congressional, and presidential election in this country and has ever since the current D/R division came into place: whichever 'side' has a more pissed off base that year is the one that wins.

i'd say in aggregate of those who vote this country is pretty evenly divided, about 49% always vote D, 49% always vote R, and 2% vote Stupid (independent, libertarian, etc).
any given election is not about issues or the economy or really even who the 'opponent' is - it's just about which side is more pissed off in general and so gets riled up enough to actually go out and vote.

considering in the US that voter turnout is usually what... like 30%? elections just come down to which side managed to get the most people to bother getting up to vote, and that's done through the fanning of rage and/or indignation.

if the Rs win seats it has fuck-all to do with policy or economics or even politics and everything to do with the conservative voters being more pissed off than the liberal voters this year.

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Republicans able to win despite being wrong about everything this century is really just a sign of how watered down and unappealing most Democrats are.

hardly - it's a sign of just how fucking retarded people who vote Republican are.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I don't have much compassion for the Democrats. They decided to move to right to 'box in' the Republicans rather than to offer a real alternative.

This has pushed the Republicans further right into the full blown reactionary, anti-everything, wingnut conspiracy fearing mode that we see everyday. Perhaps it is the Democrats only choice because the mood of the country is overwhelmingly conservative.

The Republicans have done an excellent job trying to convince independents to stand for the opposing position they actually support. Add to this, the 30 years of brainwashing which has given us the Paul Ryans and Tea Party fools and you have a tough time getting the liberals to be able to win, because everything liberals want causes cancer and is anti-American.

Add to this that the Democrats have completely demoralized their base which has to come out in force just to keep the lunatic fringe from getting power and you have a dangerous political climate for the nation. A climate that will see Democrats lose ground, not because they failed in running the nation, but mainly because the Republicans prevented most progress.

What is ironic is that Republican Governors tout their progress in their last four years, yet will rail on Obama for making the country worse. And the people that decide elections apparently are too stupid to understand this.

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

I mean, complete GOP control of government in the middle of the last decade led to the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Pretty much everything we're dealing with today in the Middle East is a result of short sighted GOP foreign policy.

To be fair, that crisis had solid roots dating back to 1971. It takes more than just a few years of mis-management to create a disaster of that scale.

Maybe at some primal level the USA just enjoys shitty leadership?

If the Republicans win, it is only because their only competition is the Democrats. Conversely, if the Democrats win, it is only because their only competition is the Republicans.

 

[prideandfall]

I don't have much compassion for the Democrats. They decided to move to right to 'box in' the Republicans rather than to offer a real alternative.

This has pushed the Republicans further right into the full blown reactionary, anti-everything, wingnut conspiracy fearing mode that we see everyday.

a rather simple and straight-forward review of politics history for the last 70 odd years show that conservatives did that just fine on their own, it's pretty disingenuous to act like liberals are to blame for the fact that Republicans as a party went collectively bat-shit.

Perhaps it is the Democrats only choice because the mood of the country is overwhelmingly conservative.

except that this is a fallacy - look at any poll or any study about actual values and attitudes towards social issues and the country always polls pretty overwhelmingly (in the 60% or higher range) in favor of socially liberal and progressive ideals - abortion, gay marriage, health insurance, social security, etc etc.
it's just that this country's complete's bugfuck stupid political map gives inordinate power to low population backwood hillbilly states, and the people in those states are easy to corral via religious wedge issues.

This movement to the right by the Democrats has validated the anti-progress, know nothing, everything to the already rich, movement conservatism, rather than offering an alternative to it. The country is suffering because of it and will continue to suffer until there is a real progressive movement in the country.

it strikes me as being very wrong to try and blame that on Dems, when in fact it's the fault of voters - if you want a great example of this, look no further than 2004.
howard dean was the sort of progressive liberal candidate that people have been claiming they want from Dems for 20 years, and the voters utterly screwed the pooch and fucked themselves over that year.

you can't blame parties for being made of people that get elected - the problem in the US isn't the politicians, it's the public.

 

[prideandfall]

Add to this that the Democrats have completely demoralized their base which has to come out in force just to keep the lunatic fringe from getting power and you have a dangerous political climate for the nation. A climate that will see Democrats lose ground, not because they failed in running the nation, but mainly because the Republicans prevented most progress.

again, i really don't see how you can blame this on the Democrats as a party, given that the voting public have forced them to act this way at every possible opportunity for at least the last 20 years.

every major and notable progressive liberal voice has been shot down, shut out, and turned aside by the voting public, and thus by the political establishment... it's no wonder that the Dems have become so milquetoast, their voting base has demanded it.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Add to this that the Democrats have completely demoralized their base which has to come out in force just to keep the lunatic fringe from getting power and you have a dangerous political climate for the nation. A climate that will see Democrats lose ground, not because they failed in running the nation, but mainly because the Republicans prevented most progress.

again, i really don't see how you can blame this on the Democrats as a party, given that the voting public have forced them to act this way at every possible opportunity for at least the last 20 years.

The party only has a tiny handful of liberals, despite what some people might say. But you are correct, we have the first black President who in a debate said flat out he was against "gay marriage" not because he was but because the voting public may get squeemish about it... even though, in majority they support gay marriage.

every major and notable progressive liberal voice has been shot down, shut out, and turned aside by the voting public, and thus by the political establishment... it's no wonder that the Dems have become so milquetoast, their voting base has demanded it.

Not their base. The god blessed undecided voters did.

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To be fair, that crisis had solid roots dating back to 1971. It takes more than just a few years of mis-management to create a disaster of that scale.

Maybe at some primal level the USA just enjoys shitty leadership?

If the Republicans win, it is only because their only competition is the Democrats. Conversely, if the Democrats win, it is only because their only competition is the Republicans.

I welcome more competition, but the fact is in '06 the Republicans were seen to the door because of the Iraqi occupation. In 2010, a massive landslide took out the Democrats because they passed the Affordable Care Act. Meesa thinksa, it is a little more complicated than just it is D v R.

 

[prideandfall]

every major and notable progressive liberal voice has been shot down, shut out, and turned aside by the voting public, and thus by the political establishment... it's no wonder that the Dems have become so milquetoast, their voting base has demanded it.

Not their base. The god blessed undecided voters did.

with all due respect, i don't buy the myth of the 'undecided' voter - i think it's a fantasy concocted to explain away a simple reality: voting is designed to be difficult in the US and most people don't bother doing it.

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

To be fair, that crisis had solid roots dating back to 1971. It takes more than just a few years of mis-management to create a disaster of that scale.

Maybe at some primal level the USA just enjoys shitty leadership?

If the Republicans win, it is only because their only competition is the Democrats. Conversely, if the Democrats win, it is only because their only competition is the Republicans.

I welcome more competition, but the fact is in '06 the Republicans were seen to the door because of the Iraqi occupation. In 2010, a massive landslide took out the Democrats because they passed the Affordable Care Act. Meesa thinksa, it is a little more complicated than just it is D v R.

In 2006, Pelosi did nothing to get us out of Iraq and declared impeachment off the table. In 2010 Obama signed Romneycare into law. How much more complicated is it?

 

[prideandfall]

I welcome more competition, but the fact is in '06 the Republicans were seen to the door because of the Iraqi occupation. In 2010, a massive landslide took out the Democrats because they passed the Affordable Care Act. Meesa thinksa, it is a little more complicated than just it is D v R.

so what you're saying is that like i said... whichever side is more pissed off that year is the one that wins.

 

[arkirk]

I don't have much compassion for the Democrats. They decided to move to right to 'box in' the Republicans rather than to offer a real alternative.

This has pushed the Republicans further right into the full blown reactionary, anti-everything, wingnut conspiracy fearing mode that we see everyday. Perhaps it is the Democrats only choice because the mood of the country is overwhelmingly conservative.

This movement to the right by the Democrats has validated the anti-progress, know nothing, everything to the already rich, movement conservatism, rather than offering an alternative to it. The country is suffering because of it and will continue to suffer until there is a real progressive movement in the country.

I think the mood of the country is overwhelmingly frightened and the word "conservative" implies going back to simpler times. People are not realizing that the so-called "conservative" movement actually pursues radically aggressive policies against the poor and the environment. You are right, I fear, and we will continue to suffer till there is a real progressive movement in this country.