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Military coup underway in Turkey - or is it?

Ford said:
Jayjay said:
Soldiers in Taksim square have surrendered, Erdogan allegedly landed at the Ataturk airport. I guess it'll be wrapped up soon. It would have been better if there had not been a coup attempt at all, but since there was, I suppose a swift ending to it is the best of bad outcomes. Or second best: I wish Erdogan had caught a bullet somewhere along the excitement.
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I've got a feeling that if the coup has failed, Turkey will be worse off. Traditionally the military has been the method to "right the ship" when it stops being the secular republic established by Ataturk. If they've failed, then they're too weak to stop someone like Ergdogan from becoming more dictatorial - which is what I suspect he'll do next. This will give him an excuse to consolidate his power even faster.
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That was my thought as well. There's not many Islamic countries left that aren't falling into wreckage, much less officially secular ones. Hopefully Tunisia can hang on.
 
braces_for_impact said:
Ford said:
I've got a feeling that if the coup has failed, Turkey will be worse off. Traditionally the military has been the method to "right the ship" when it stops being the secular republic established by Ataturk. If they've failed, then they're too weak to stop someone like Ergdogan from becoming more dictatorial - which is what I suspect he'll do next. This will give him an excuse to consolidate his power even faster.
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That was my thought as well. There's not many Islamic countries left that aren't falling into wreckage, much less officially secular ones. Hopefully Tunisia can hang on.
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Don't forget countries like Iraq, Libya and Syria, where we've given them a helping hand in their roads to chaos.
 
Don2 (Don1 Revised) said:
These are just the birth pangs of democracy.
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More like a stillbirth. Besides, unlike the birth pangs Condoleeza had in mind, these were rather short lived. Time for a good old fashioned purge, followed by islamisation of the Turkish military.
 
Jayjay said:
Apparently it was some part of the military, not even the top brass but a few people lower down the command chain.

Of course, conspiracy theorists are always going to find a way to blame the CIA or NATO somehow. :rolleyes:
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The Turkish secretary of Labor has accused the US of being behind the attempted coup

https://twitter.com/TurkeyUntold/status/754362653238300672

Turkey has also suspended movements at Incirlik Air Base
http://turkey.usembassy.gov/sm-071616.html


July 16, 2016

Be advised that local authorities are denying movements on to and off of Incirlik Air Base. The power there has also been cut. Please avoid the air base until normal operations have been restored.
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Will Wiley said:
The Turkish secretary of Labor has accused the US of being behind the attempted coup

https://twitter.com/TurkeyUntold/status/754362653238300672

Turkey has also suspended movements at Incirlik Air Base
http://turkey.usembassy.gov/sm-071616.html


July 16, 2016

Be advised that local authorities are denying movements on to and off of Incirlik Air Base. The power there has also been cut. Please avoid the air base until normal operations have been restored.
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What's the evidence the U.S. is behind the coup?
 
Already happening, I'm guessing, since Obama was meeting with National Security and FP advisers early this morning regarding the situation in Turkey.

Bombs or no, Article 5 is the biggest issue right now and the US can't work unilaterally in that regard.
 
Turkey has made clear to U.S. that Gulen behind coup plot

President Tayyip Erdogan officially designated Gulen's religious movement a terrorist group in May and said he would pursue its members. Turkey has long been expected to request his extradition from the United States.

Cavusoglu said the military now needed to be "cleansed" of Gulenist influence.
"Once this cleansing is finished our military will be stronger, our soldiers will be stronger, providing better support and coordination to NATO," he said.
He said soldiers at the Incirlik air base in southern Turkey, used by the U.S. military to conduct air strikes against Islamic State militants in neighboring Syria, had been involved in the coup attempt and that arrests had been made.
"Once these operations are completed, we will continue our fight against Daesh (Islamic State) with either coalition nations, or within the NATO framework, and resume our cooperation with NATO," Cavusoglu said.
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Turkey has a long history of the army being secularists. While the population tend to be Muslim. This is the fourth time a democratically elected Islamist leader has veered toward authoritarianism and the army has staged a coup to make things democratic again. I mean third time. This time it failed.

I tend to be against coups. But this time I wonder if this was a disaster. Now Erdogan has a free pass to do whatever anti democratic mischief he wants.
 
Erdogan can't execute any of the plotters and be still able to get into the EU, right?
 
Will Wiley said:
Turkey has made clear to U.S. that Gulen behind coup plot

President Tayyip Erdogan officially designated Gulen's religious movement a terrorist group in May and said he would pursue its members. Turkey has long been expected to request his extradition from the United States.

Cavusoglu said the military now needed to be "cleansed" of Gulenist influence.
"Once this cleansing is finished our military will be stronger, our soldiers will be stronger, providing better support and coordination to NATO," he said.
He said soldiers at the Incirlik air base in southern Turkey, used by the U.S. military to conduct air strikes against Islamic State militants in neighboring Syria, had been involved in the coup attempt and that arrests had been made.
"Once these operations are completed, we will continue our fight against Daesh (Islamic State) with either coalition nations, or within the NATO framework, and resume our cooperation with NATO," Cavusoglu said.
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It may be, but proof is needed apart from a few prisoners being persuaded to say so.

- - - Updated - - -

repoman said:
Erdogan can't execute any of the plotters and be still able to get into the EU, right?
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Gulen unless there is proof of its involvement will be a convenient scapegoat.
 
One should keep in mind that Gulen is Erdogan's Goldstein: An external scapegoat for any kind of plotting and conspiracies. As per form, they blame Gulen for the coup attempt even before any of the conspirators were even known.

Besides, the army in Turkey is traditionally secularist and not in very good terms with the Kurds. Gulen is an Islamic preacher who happens to be also Kurdish, and when he was still BFFs with Erdogan he was on the receiving end of the army crackdowns. Even if we assume Gulen has some followers in Turkey, armed forces is the last place where they might be. It's more likely that Erdogan himself staged it, and I'm not saying that even that is very likely.
 
repoman said:
Erdogan can't execute any of the plotters and be still able to get into the EU, right?
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Hell is going to freeze over before Erdogan's Turkey gets into EU, so put that thought out of your mind.

What's relevant is that Turkey has abolished the death penalty and ratified some protocol of the European Council when they were still actively trying to be a member. Reinstituting capital punishment would be a violation, but all that EC could do is wag their finger vigorously. A more realistic concern for Europe than Turkey membership is the visa-free travel that was promised as part of the deal with Turkey regarding refugee situation, but this is not directly tied to the death penalty.
 
Rule #1 of coups, make sure you are going to succeed before starting the attempt.
 
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