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Moody's Analytics - Clinton Will Create 10.4 Million Jobs

Hard to say. Under Bush unemployment hit a high of 10%. Under Clinton it dropped to just below 4% Policies matter but the economic condition may affect things no matter your policies. Would Trump's massive deficits damage the economy and employment? Surely yes, but how much is hard to quantify.

Wait, I thought deficits were supposed to be good for the economy.

Does the Moody's model say they are bad now?

Deficits can help during recession to stimulate the economy. During good economic times it is better to balance the budget. This was lost on Bush II- he had a relatively good economy in the early 2000s and squandered it with high deficits. This made the country ill prepared for the 2007 crash.
 
Can we skip over to the higher taxation and unprecedented peacetime economic boom of the 90's?

I'm not a fan of long-term economic projections. They have an accuracy rating somewhere between Ouija boards and Astrology. Trump's plan is to change a tax code law and then trillions of dollars will just flood our economy and invest in our ~'crumbling infrastructure', as if private equity is involved in public infrastructure. I can at least see how Clinton's plan can work. Trump's plan is based on right-wing Ayn Rand fan-fic.
Comparing '70's taxation to '90's taxation is apples and oranges. Plus, the success of any tax plan depends on the overall economy. Taxing yourself to prosperity is just silly talk. The 90's benefited greatly from the dot-com boom.
Well, as soon as someone suggests we can tax our way to prosperity, we can discuss that.

Meanwhile, it seems that conservatives say we should cut taxes when the economy is booming or contracting. So they don't seem to think taxes affects anything. Liberals say we should raise taxes to pay for shit. Liberals seem to think shit needs to get paid for.
 
Yeah, let's just skip over the high taxation and malaise of the 1970's.
Can we skip over to the higher taxation and unprecedented peacetime economic boom of the 90's?

I'm not a fan of long-term economic projections. They have an accuracy rating somewhere between Ouija boards and Astrology. Trump's plan is to change a tax code law and then trillions of dollars will just flood our economy and invest in our ~'crumbling infrastructure', as if private equity is involved in public infrastructure. I can at least see how Clinton's plan can work. Trump's plan is based on right-wing Ayn Rand fan-fic.

When the Bushy-wushy came up with his massive tax cuts for the rich plan, telling us it would create jobs a booming economy and prosperity, 450 top economists including 10, count 'em 10, Nobel prize winning economists signed a statement calling those claims false and warning this plan would bury us in massive deficits. They were right. The economy was weak and finally collapsed and Bush doubled the National Debt.

Sometimes it pays to listen to the experts. Especially those with good track records when it comes to analysis.
 
This is true-things started falling apart for the middle class when we got away from progressive taxation in the 80s. There was a reason for progressive taxation and that was wealth distribution. It was republican propaganda made many believe that the old system was riddled with "loop holes", when in reality these were targeted loop hole designed to distribute the wealth more evenly.

As to the Moody Analytics report Forbes has a more in depth analysis:
Correlation != causation. Things started to get apart with China becoming capitalist county.

Sending jobs to China simply to make higher profits has added to the problem of jobs.

The issue is the creation of jobs and what policies are likely to produce jobs.

When people have more expendable income that immediately stimulates the economy. Which eventually will create jobs.

Giving money to the rich that promise things will improve has shown to not create jobs in the US but it has created a lot of jobs in China.
 
Yeah, let's just skip over the high taxation and malaise of the 1970's.

The seventies was all about inflation, Nixon's disastrous wage/price freeze, and Jimmy Carter's inability to work with his own congress. The Nineties prospered in part because of the dot com wave, but also because we cut the deficit, which freed up capital, but even that prosperity did little to help the middle class. That can only be fixed by a redistribution of wealth. To deny that is to deny economic history-we were in the same boat in the early twentieth century: most of the nation's wealth was controlled by only a few people. That was why progressive income tax was instituted in the first place. To redistribute the wealth.

I think the progressive tax missed the mark. Then way to re-distribute wealth is to apply property taxes to ALL property INCLUDING STOCKS & BONDS. Everyone who owns a house pays property tax, and they presumably contribute to the economy by improving or maintaining that property - IOW they actually produce something. People who own stocks - especially billionaires with vast diverse portfolios - pay NOTHING in property taxes on those holdings, and they don't produce anything. Even a nominal tax on stock holdings would mitigate financial inequality and obliterate the Debt. But it ain't goona happen because - billionaires.
 
This is true-things started falling apart for the middle class when we got away from progressive taxation in the 80s. There was a reason for progressive taxation and that was wealth distribution. It was republican propaganda made many believe that the old system was riddled with "loop holes", when in reality these were targeted loop hole designed to distribute the wealth more evenly.

As to the Moody Analytics report Forbes has a more in depth analysis:

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&sqi=2&ved=0ahUKEwi2wOT2wKDOAhUE12MKHf3xBJoQqQIIKjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.forbes.com%2Fsites%2Fmaggiemcgrath%2F2016%2F07%2F29%2Fmoodys-where-trumps-economic-policies-might-spark-recession-clintons-could-boost-gdp-and-lower-unemployment%2F&usg=AFQjCNEVa37u9PCRMFfnw4inpeS2HPmpEA&sig2=Z-NocSB0kLKV_Hbk8DC-3Q&bvm=bv.128617741,d.cGc

I think the salient point is that Trump is not going to do anything that will increase jobs. He will promise that reducing taxes of the rich will create jobs but that's a proven lie.

Clinton might.

What?!?! We actually agree on something?

Although I will quibble a bit. Modern Republicans destroy jobs, not merely don't create them.
 
Hard to say. Under Bush unemployment hit a high of 10%. Under Clinton it dropped to just below 4% Policies matter but the economic condition may affect things no matter your policies. Would Trump's massive deficits damage the economy and employment? Surely yes, but how much is hard to quantify.

Wait, I thought deficits were supposed to be good for the economy.

Does the Moody's model say they are bad now?

...
 
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The low deficits of the late 90s caused the recession of 2000. When govt is in surplus, and the foreign sector in deficit, the difference must be made up by private spending, eventually causing a contraction.


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Assumption 1. The rich save a high percentage of their income and the non-rich, everyone else, spends most of their income.

This is the one economic assumption that every school of economics agrees on. It is so obvious, the rich run out of things to spend their money, the non-rich spend a much larger percentage of their income to stay alive, food, clothing, housing, etc.

This single widely accepted assertion, tells us a lot and answers many of the questions asked here.

It means that before we can predict the impact of a federal government deficit we have to know who is receiving the deficit spending money. If the money is going to the rich we will have more savings in the economy and more wealth accumulated by the rich. If the deficit is spent so that the non-rich receive it we will have more spending in the economy. Simple.

Tax cuts create deficits that put money into the hands of the rich. Tax cuts reduce revenues, creating deficits, and don't change, i.e. increase, government spending.

Deficit spending puts money into the hands of the non-rich. That is, infrastructure spending creates jobs that pay wages. Transfer payments go to the non-rich, contribute to the budget deficit and are spent on consumption, creating jobs and adding to wealth of the non-rich.

The rich save their money received from the tax cuts by buying government bonds, buying stocks in the stock market, buying real property or just putting it in a bank account, increasingly in offshore tax havens. The money is saved by the rich, in no meaningful way is it invested in the economy. It effectively leaves the economy.

This is the reason that tax cuts don't stimulate the economy, the physical economy of making things and providing services. The economy that the vast majority of people depend on for their livelihood.

It does stimulate the paper economy of stocks and bonds, of money sitting in a bank account.
 
The low deficits of the late 90s caused the recession of 2000. When govt is in surplus, and the foreign sector in deficit, the difference must be made up by private spending, eventually causing a contraction.


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Reality check: We weren't in surplus in the 90s.
 
Assumption 1. The rich save a high percentage of their income and the non-rich, everyone else, spends most of their income.

This is the one economic assumption that every school of economics agrees on. It is so obvious, the rich run out of things to spend their money, the non-rich spend a much larger percentage of their income to stay alive, food, clothing, housing, etc.

Agreed so far.

This single widely accepted assertion, tells us a lot and answers many of the questions asked here.

It means that before we can predict the impact of a federal government deficit we have to know who is receiving the deficit spending money. If the money is going to the rich we will have more savings in the economy and more wealth accumulated by the rich. If the deficit is spent so that the non-rich receive it we will have more spending in the economy. Simple.

Tax cuts create deficits that put money into the hands of the rich. Tax cuts reduce revenues, creating deficits, and don't change, i.e. increase, government spending.

Deficit spending puts money into the hands of the non-rich. That is, infrastructure spending creates jobs that pay wages. Transfer payments go to the non-rich, contribute to the budget deficit and are spent on consumption, creating jobs and adding to wealth of the non-rich.

The rich save their money received from the tax cuts by buying government bonds, buying stocks in the stock market, buying real property or just putting it in a bank account, increasingly in offshore tax havens. The money is saved by the rich, in no meaningful way is it invested in the economy. It effectively leaves the economy.

This is the reason that tax cuts don't stimulate the economy, the physical economy of making things and providing services. The economy that the vast majority of people depend on for their livelihood.

It does stimulate the paper economy of stocks and bonds, of money sitting in a bank account.

But here you've lost it. It doesn't matter whether the government is in the red or the black, but rather where the money it spends goes.

If it goes to the rich you get investment, if it goes to the not-rich you get spending.

Whether a tax cut stimulates the economy depends on what is the limiting factor in the economy. When utilization is high putting money into the hands of the rich causes the creation of new capacity and thus economic growth. When utilization is low there's little creation of capacity and thus this effect is much smaller.

On the other side of things, if utilization is high and the not-rich get more money you get inflation as they compete for the goods, while if the utilization is low it goes up, causing economic growth.

The conservatives consistently try to make economic policy assuming utilization is high (and many of their policies do make sense in this environment), the liberals consistently try to make economic policy assuming utilization is low (and likewise, the policies generally make sense in this environment.)

In the real world we swing back and forth between these states and have to be careful to avoid making policies that might be good for the current conditions but bad when things change.
 
If it goes to the rich you get investment, if it goes to the not-rich you get spending.

With giving money to the rich you also get hoarding.

And the investment of the rich is not US investment.

It is investment in places with the lowest labor costs and this investment helps drive wages downward everywhere.

IOW it is is deleterious to US workers to let people with too much already have more.
 
The low deficits of the late 90s caused the recession of 2000. When govt is in surplus, and the foreign sector in deficit, the difference must be made up by private spending, eventually causing a contraction.


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I think thats called an adjustment, isn't it? I think it was predictable and totally expected.
 
If it goes to the rich you get investment, if it goes to the not-rich you get spending.

With giving money to the rich you also get hoarding.

And the investment of the rich is not US investment.

It is investment in places with the lowest labor costs and this investment helps drive wages downward everywhere.

IOW it is is deleterious to US workers to let people with too much already have more.

The rich don't hoard--that would mean keeping their money idle, something they don't do much of. They're going to put it to some purpose--if they put it in the bank then the bank will turn around and loan it to somebody.
 
With giving money to the rich you also get hoarding.

And the investment of the rich is not US investment.

It is investment in places with the lowest labor costs and this investment helps drive wages downward everywhere.

IOW it is is deleterious to US workers to let people with too much already have more.

The rich don't hoard--that would mean keeping their money idle, something they don't do much of. They're going to put it to some purpose--if they put it in the bank then the bank will turn around and loan it to somebody.

The rich are humans.

They hoard.

And the most important point is that a lot of their investment not only doesn't help US workers it harms them.
 
The low deficits of the late 90s caused the recession of 2000. When govt is in surplus, and the foreign sector in deficit, the difference must be made up by private spending, eventually causing a contraction.


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I think thats called an adjustment, isn't it? I think it was predictable and totally expected.

In some quarters, perhaps. But the CW is balanced govt budgets are good.
 
The rich don't hoard--that would mean keeping their money idle, something they don't do much of. They're going to put it to some purpose--if they put it in the bank then the bank will turn around and loan it to somebody.

The rich are humans.

They hoard.

And the most important point is that a lot of their investment not only doesn't help US workers it harms them.

Thumping your bible isn't evidence.
 
The rich are humans.

They hoard.

And the most important point is that a lot of their investment not only doesn't help US workers it harms them.

Thumping your bible isn't evidence.

These investors are mostly creating jobs in the areas of the world with the lowest labor costs.

They are maximizing their investment.

Not loyally investing in the US because they are patriots.

And all this capital creating all these low paying jobs drives wages down globally. US workers are being forced to compete with Chinese workers.

This is what the investing class is doing. Traitors if there ever were such a thing.

You need more than one liners to deny it.
 
Thumping your bible isn't evidence.

These investors are mostly creating jobs in the areas of the world with the lowest labor costs.

They are maximizing their investment.

Not loyally investing in the US because they are patriots.

And all this capital creating all these low paying jobs drives wages down globally. US workers are being forced to compete with Chinese workers.

This is what the investing class is doing. Traitors if there ever were such a thing.

You need more than one liners to deny it.

There isn't anything like the rate of outsourcing that you think--cheapest labor costs doesn't always mean the best deal.
 
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