More and more "Nones" in religion in the US

[lpetrich]

The ‘Nones’ keep growing noting 'Nones’ now as big as evangelicals, Catholics in the US - Religion News Service noting Ryan Burge on Twitter: "The 2018 GSS was just released and there's some big news. Those of "no religion" (23.1%) are statistically the same size as evangelicals (22.8%). There was also a small resurgence of mainline Protestants, while Catholics are down 3% in the last four years.… https://t.co/lwJPogbQlw"

The numbers are rather noisy, but the trends are clear. The numbers cover 1972 to 2018, nearly 50 years.

• Nones stayed constant at about 7.5% until 1990, when they started to increase to the present value of 23%.
• Mainline Protestants declined from 30% to 11%.
• Catholics stayed nearly constant, going from 25% to 23%
• Evangelicals rose from 20% to 28%, then declined to 24%
• Black Protestants stayed roughly constant at 8%
• Jews stayed roughly constant at 2%
• Other religions slowly increased from 8% to 11% in 1995, then stayed roughly constant.

I'd have to have the source numbers before I can do better.

Fastest growing religion in Minnesota, the nation, is 'none' (Nov 10, 2018)

Beto's Announcement Shows Triumph of Secular Democrats - The Atlantic - "Instead of invoking God, O’Rourke and most other Democratic contenders identify religion as a source of division." Is this the beginning of the end of politicians trying to pose as high priests of some Church of God the American?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Beto's Announcement Shows Triumph of Secular Democrats - The Atlantic - "Instead of invoking God, O’Rourke and most other Democratic contenders identify religion as a source of division." Is this the beginning of the end of politicians trying to pose as high priests of some Church of God the American?

If it is the "beginning", it is the Beginning in the sense of 'it is the beginning of long period of time'.

 

[steve_bank]

The problem is we have a Secretory Of State who thinks Trump may be sent by god.

 

[Lion IRC]

Notice how these surveys hardly ever use the word "atheist"?

"Religiously unaffiliated" does not mean atheist.

Catholics who are embarrassed to call themselves Catholic would put "no religion".
Agnostics and enquiring spiritual atheists would obviously be unwilling/unable to designate a single Truth about religion.
Heck, many atheists around here have trouble explaining what they mean by God.

I wish they would put the word Atheism on the What Religion Are You...list of menu options

 

[Rhea]

Notice they do not ask, “belief,” Lion. You see these numbers “because of how they answer the question “what is your religious tradition?”

Atheism, as you know, is not a religious tradition. And it is less embarrassing for catholics to answer if that is their religious tradition than whether they believe in their church (although you’re right, so many catholics these days are terribly embarrassed and ashamed of their church, and rightly so, aren’t they?)

People are just finding it less and less needful to cling to authoritarian cruelties to get through their day. They are turning to love of life - this life - and finding joy in living with other humans. Anyway, great to see the decline of those awful traditions that harmed so much of humankind.

 

[bilby]

Notice how these surveys hardly ever use the word "atheist"?

"Religiously unaffiliated" does not mean atheist.

Of course not. But it's a big step in the right direction.

I would much rather people simply said 'I think some supernatural forces exist' than that they said 'I think some supernatural forces exist and I am going to obey, fund, and/or support an organisation that is dedicated to having this enshrined in law and/or believed by as many people as possible'.

Catholics who are embarrassed to call themselves Catholic would put "no religion".

I am not surprised. Catholics who are not embarrassed to call themselves Catholic are fucking terrifying.

Agnostics and enquiring spiritual atheists would obviously be unwilling/unable to designate a single Truth about religion.

Indeed. I am not sure why you think that this is significant though.

Heck, many atheists around here have trouble explaining what they mean by God.

Really? Or do you have trouble comprehending that 'gods are fictional' implies that whatever definition you choose is as good as any other?

I don't think that fictional characters are real. Gods are fictional characters. Therefore gods are not real.

The existence of fictional characters that map onto reality doesn't change this - sure, there are junior reporters in reality as well as in fiction; But none of the real ones know Superman, so the existence of real reporters doesn't mean that Jimmy Olsen is evidence for Superman's existence.

Just like your belief in a god doesn't make god a real thing, your belief in the failure of atheists to define god doesn't actually mean that they can't, or haven't.

In both cases, you are simply wrong.

I wish they would put the word Atheism on the What Religion Are You...list of menu options

Many surveys do. Your wish has been granted. I prophesise that it will not make you happy, nor change your opinions on anything.

 

[Old Woman in Purple]

Atheist Census, for anyone interested.

 

[skepticalbip]

Heck, many atheists around here have trouble explaining what they mean by God.

Likely because "many atheists around here" see it as a nonsense word that believers seem to put a hell of a lot of stock in.
What I find amazing is that "the believers around here" who think that word has so much meaning that they form their lives around that belief but either can't or won't say what that word means to them, at least not when trying to defend their belief to non-believers.

 

[steve_bank]

Personally I have no idea what the Christian god is, and it seems Christians do not either.

They talk about attributes. I pray for help and I found some money.

God has compassion. God is something theists talk about without any definition. A main retort is god is beyond human comprehension, but I know HE exists. Does god gave a penis? Does god consume energy and leave waste?

In the bible god is a word. God will be angry if you do this, god will be happy if you do that. My interpretation of god is a creation reflecting the ancient Hebrew patriarchy where the man literally ruled over wife and children.

God acts but there is nothing about what god is. Christians freely and creatively invent interpretations of what god is and from that dispense morality. I know what god wants.

There is no singular atheist. I ascribe to forethought.

I reject both theism and atheism. I reject atheism because it is put upon us by theists when we reject them.

For me atheism is just convenient label for reference in discussion. I do not dwell in any atheist mind set anymore than a religious one.

I ascribe to forethought. Approach issues without regard to an ism. There is no such thing as supernatural. Anything that exists is natural. Atheism and theism are a duality Free thought gets beyond the duality. Not just pragmatism.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freethought

Freethought (or "free thought")[1] is a philosophical viewpoint which holds that positions regarding truth should be formed on the basis of logic, reason, and empiricism, rather than authority, tradition, revelation, or dogma. According to the Oxford English Dictionary [2], a freethinker is 'a person who forms their own ideas and opinions rather than accepting those of other people, especially in religious teaching.' In some contemporary thought in particular, freethought is strongly tied with rejection of traditional social or religious belief systems.[1][3] The cognitive application of freethought is known as "freethinking", and practitioners of freethought are known as "freethinkers".[1] Modern freethinkers consider freethought as a natural freedom of all negative and illusive thoughts acquired from the society.[4]

The term first came into use in the 17th century in order to indicate people who inquired into the basis of traditional religious beliefs. In practice, freethinking is most closely linked with secularism, atheism, agnosticism, anti-clericalism, and religious critique. The Oxford English Dictionary defines freethinking as, "The free exercise of reason in matters of religious belief, unrestrained by deference to authority; the adoption of the principles of a free-thinker." Freethinkers hold that knowledge should be grounded in facts, scientific inquiry, and logic. The skeptical application of science implies freedom from the intellectually limiting effects of confirmation bias, cognitive bias, conventional wisdom, popular culture, prejudice, or sectarianism.[5]

 

[steve_bank]

It has been said in the media that with all the revelations about sex abuse and cover-ups Young Christians are thinking over their childhood indoctrination. There have been vocal Catholics on the news saying their faith in the RCC and pope as a moral authority is gone.

On the other hand some Christe\ians are saying Trump was sent by god.

 

[Rhea]

Heck, many atheists around here have trouble explaining what they mean by God.

Many atheists around here have trouble explaining what they mean by referencing someone else's imaginary friend?

Um, yah?

Especially when the people who have the imaginary friend won't describe it and only play Twenty Questions?

Twenty Questions is a game where someone thinks of a thing, and the others are allowed to ask 20 yes-or-no questions to discover what it is. Now imagine playing this game where the thing is made up. That would be a Stupid Game.

 

[Brian63]

In the picture, it is interesting how erratic the percent of evangelicals has been. It looks to have peaked in the early-to-mid 1990's, then dropped sharply (why? People settling back into their traditional Catholic denomination?). Then has an overall decline since but still with some hills and valleys. The 9/11 attack and Iraq War may account for a bump they had in the mid-2000's.

The rise of the none's since the mid-1990's has been more stable, in contrast, except for a flattening in the early 2000's.

Blessed be the IPU, regardless.

 

[lpetrich]

In the picture, it is interesting how erratic the percent of evangelicals has been. It looks to have peaked in the early-to-mid 1990's, then dropped sharply (why? People settling back into their traditional Catholic denomination?).

Notice the decline of mainline Protestants and the stasis or slow increase of the others before the mid 1990's. This means that many mainline Protestants became evangelicals over that time. But after the mid 1990's, many mainline Protestants started becoming Nones.

Then has an overall decline since but still with some hills and valleys. The 9/11 attack and Iraq War may account for a bump they had in the mid-2000's.

Be careful of sampling error. That is because polling large numbers of people is expensive. The relative sampling error is proportional to 1/sqrt, where n is the sample size. So a sample of 1000 people will give relative errors around 3%. That is a rough estimate, so it may be off by a factor of 2.

For taking n independent samples of some population where feature F has a probability p in it, the probability of finding k instances of F is described with the  Binomial distribution:
\( \frac{n!}{k! (n-k)!} p^k (1-p)^{n-k} \)

The average value of k is n*p, and its standard deviation is sqrt(n*p*(1-p)). Thus, for p = 1/2, the relative stdev is (1/2)/sqrt. For n = 1000, I find 1.5%.

The rise of the none's since the mid-1990's has been more stable, in contrast, except for a flattening in the early 2000's.

Only 20% of them seem to be agnostics or atheists, at least explicitly. Many of them may be "spiritual but not religious" or believers in  ietsism or "somethingism", belief in some vague spiritual force(s).

 

[Brian63]

Notice the decline of mainline Protestants and the stasis or slow increase of the others before the mid 1990's. This means that many mainline Protestants became evangelicals over that time. But after the mid 1990's, many mainline Protestants started becoming Nones.

Okay. Setting aside the mainline Protestants though and referring to the Catholics and evangelicals specifically, it looks like there is a strong temporary competition between them. When one rises, the other falls. Most significantly around 1993 and 1994 or so, and again in 2004, 2011 and 2012 when one surges the other takes a heavy hit. There is a general decline among both over the period, and a strong increase in the none's (thank Jebus).

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

People are just waking up, much like many of us have. Religion is becoming dopey, like santa or playing with baby dolls. It's being perceived as staying in first grade or wearing a diaper. This is because people are becoming less provincial as their scope of experiences is expanding. I feel like I was on the leading edge of this change and lots of people are having the same experience.

We grew up going to church every sunday and doing lots of religious things that our parents valued. Thing is when we became parents we didn't value those religious things anymore. Nothing unnatural or sinister here just moved on with our lives. We had to keep moving to keep working, didn't have time and money to blow on religious baloney. We couldn't stay in the same town and go to the same church and work for 40 years in the same steel mill like many of our parents.

Those "nones" are just people saying religion isn't important, because to them it isn't. They don't need the label, they no longer have the need to go to their god guru to get a reference for a job. That stuff is old and hokey and in some cases unaffordable. Their lives and their families are more important than their old religion. Good for them.