More on job loss due to automation

[SimpleDon]

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/21/upshot/the-long-term-jobs-killer-is-not-china-its-automation.html

A simple example:

Take the steel industry. It lost 400,000 people, 75 percent of its work force, between 1962 and 2005. But its shipments did not decline, according to a study published in the American Economic Review last year.

That's where the good jobs of the 50s and 60s went!

This is right. Not that many jobs went to China. Not that many jobs were lost to automation. The loss in jobs in the steel industry, which I worked in by the way, were lost to more efficient and larger processes and mills and recycling, mini mills, not to automation.

If anything, offshoring delayed the job loss to automation tor . Of course, this job loss will now be in China and Mexico, not in the US.

The problem with off shoring is the same problem that we had with the massive increase in legal and illegal immigration after your beloved supply siders and neoliberals made it nearly impossible to prosecute companies for hiring illegals and the advent of H1B1 visas, the threat of low wage competition, whether from low wage countries, from illegal or legal guest workers or even from right to work states, it finally was enough to effectively and ruthlessly suppress wages in this country.

 

[RVonse]

Eventually people get so sick of being told how much better off they are that they vote for Trump, Brexit and far right nationalist parties.

+1 Nothing more true has ever been spoken.

If all of you Trump haters are wondering how such an evil man made it into POTUS, please read carefully what Canard has just written in post #40, the previous page. Several times if necessary.

 

[RVonse]

The loss in jobs in the steel industry, which I worked in by the way, were lost to more efficient and larger processes and mills and recycling, mini mills, not to automation.

Its actually because steel, unlike a lot of other materials is able to be recycled. After 100 years, the world has already made a lot of steel which can be melted again.. Thus there are now more arc furnaces melting down scrap cars and other stock and less blast furnaces making steel from raw earth materials.

But none of any of that or what you are bringing up has anything to do with China stealing good jobs from the US.

 

[Axulus]

Eventually people get so sick of being told how much better off they are that they vote for Trump, Brexit and far right nationalist parties.

+1 Nothing more true has ever been spoken.

If all of you Trump haters are wondering how such an evil man made it into POTUS, please read carefully what Canard has just written in post #40, the previous page. Several times if necessary.

It was utter reading comprehension fail and complete math ignorance. Even my math took on the assumption that those particular manufacturing the workers were _worse_ off, and I even assigned a number to it for the example!

Who the hell is making the claim that rust-belt manufacturing workers, in general, are better off today, or is this just a case of making stuff up?

 

[arkirk]

+1 Nothing more true has ever been spoken.

If all of you Trump haters are wondering how such an evil man made it into POTUS, please read carefully what Canard has just written in post #40, the previous page. Several times if necessary.

It was utter reading comprehension fail and complete math ignorance. Even my math took on the assumption that those particular manufacturing the workers were _worse_ off, and I even assigned a number to it for the example!

Who the hell is making the claim that rust-belt manufacturing workers, in general, are better off today, or is this just a case of making stuff up?

The Chinese rust belt workers are definitely not "better off either."

Did you ever wonder why we seems to have a cleaner air than before. There are certain negative aspects of over manufacturing and pollution is one of them. It is not impossible to find the medical and social consequences of this kind of action also and add them into the "cost." Conservatives are people who only consider their personal costs and let the costs society pays go to hell. They don't pay the costs. They just facilitate society absorbing them.

 

[Axulus]

It was utter reading comprehension fail and complete math ignorance. Even my math took on the assumption that those particular manufacturing the workers were _worse_ off, and I even assigned a number to it for the example!

Who the hell is making the claim that rust-belt manufacturing workers, in general, are better off today, or is this just a case of making stuff up?

The Chinese rust belt workers are definitely not "better off either."
View attachment 9241
Did you ever wonder why we seems to have a cleaner air than before. There are certain negative aspects of over manufacturing and pollution is one of them. It is not impossible to find the medical and social consequences of this kind of action also and add them into the "cost." Conservatives are people who only consider their personal costs and let the costs society pays go to hell. They don't pay the costs. They just facilitate society absorbing them.

You display an extreme and dangerous form of ignorance. You speak as if people would rather have this:

A family from China’s Guizhou Province sift through garbage in search of resellable items. China has reduced poverty dramatically over the years, but small pockets of communities under extreme poverty remain.

http://www.eco-business.com/news/china-sets-example-for-world-to-tackle-extreme-poverty/

And this:

Rather than have something approaching a middle class standard of living but dirty outdoor air (which is being addressed).

You really should get out and talk to some people in the developing world and actually see for yourself what absolute poverty looks like. Get out of your clean air bubble in comfortable and rich CA and explore the world a little bit.

 

[dismal]

Huh?

How about you provide examples of things we value that we should go out of our way to make more expensive to produce.

The list would be too long to print here but let me show you a few anyway:
1. We put safety belts in cars
2. We put air bags in cars
3. We put tempered glass in car windows
4. We put a bunch of pollution control crap on car engines
.......and all of it is going out of our way to make the price of the car more expensive.

Holy crap, do you bother to read?

My point was about paying more for something she we didn't have to. Let's assume seat belt laws are the greatest single achievement of mankind. Would we be better off paying $50 per seat belt or passing some law to make seat belt labor less efficient so we could pay $500?

 

[RVonse]

The list would be too long to print here but let me show you a few anyway:
1. We put safety belts in cars
2. We put air bags in cars
3. We put tempered glass in car windows
4. We put a bunch of pollution control crap on car engines
.......and all of it is going out of our way to make the price of the car more expensive.

Holy crap, do you bother to read?

My point was about paying more for something she we didn't have to. Let's assume seat belt laws are the greatest single achievement of mankind. Would we be better off paying $50 per seat belt or passing some law to make seat belt labor less efficient so we could pay $500?

We would be better off paying $500 if the opportunity costs exceed $450 with US workers losing employment of prime manufacturing jobs.

At least Axulus is honest enough to concede the fact there have been real and tangible costs to workers left high and dry in the rust belt. He does not believe the costs are that great, but fortunately Trump and about 1/2 of this country disagreed with Axulus viewpoint this last election.

I would imagine that neither you or Axulus place any significant value on those prime jobs leaving our country, simply because neither of you has any of your own employment at stake. Nor would I imagine that either of you mind living in a 3rd world country. But if your income happened to be personally dependent with US manufacturing, I am most certain you would not be saying the things you do.

 

[Axulus]

Holy crap, do you bother to read?

My point was about paying more for something she we didn't have to. Let's assume seat belt laws are the greatest single achievement of mankind. Would we be better off paying $50 per seat belt or passing some law to make seat belt labor less efficient so we could pay $500?

We would be better off paying $500 if the opportunity costs exceed $450 with US workers losing employment of prime manufacturing jobs.

At least Axulus is honest enough to concede the fact there have been real and tangible costs to workers left high and dry in the rust belt. He does not believe the costs are that great, but fortunately Trump and about 1/2 of this country disagreed with Axulus viewpoint this last election.

I would imagine that neither you or Axulus place any significant value on those prime jobs leaving our country, simply because neither of you has any of your own employment at stake. Nor would I imagine that either of you mind living in a 3rd world country. But if your income happened to be personally dependent with US manufacturing, I am most certain you would not be saying the things you do.

But those jobs are not coming back. Don't you realize that? Trump sold you a load of bullshit by acting like he can bring them back.

In fact, the total inflation-adjusted output of the U.S. manufacturing sector is now higher than it has ever been. That’s true even as the sector’s employment is growing only slowly, and remains near the lowest it’s been. These diverging lines—which reflect improved productivity—highlight a huge problem with Trump’s promises to help workers by reshoring millions of manufacturing jobs. America is already producing a lot. And in any event, the return of more manufacturing won’t bring back many jobs, because the labor is increasingly being done by robots.

Boston Consulting Group reports that it costs barely $8 an hour to use a robot for spot welding in the auto industry, compared to $25 for a worker—and the gap is only going to widen. More generally, the “job intensity” of America’s manufacturing industries—and especially its best-paying advanced ones—is only going to decline. In 1980 it took 25 jobs to generate $1 million in manufacturing output in the U.S. Today it takes five jobs.

The automated, hyper-efficient shop floors of modern manufacturing won’t give Trump much room to deliver on his outsized promises to bring back millions of jobs for his blue-collar supporters.

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/602869/manufacturing-jobs-arent-coming-back/

Not even Trump has proposed smashing the looms. And if he did that, no one would dare start a business here. Jobs would flee at lightning speed.

 

[RVonse]

But those jobs are not coming back. Don't you realize that? Trump sold you a load of bullshit by acting like he can bring them back.

They are already coming back and he has not even taken the oath of office yet!:

1. 800 jobs at Carrier in Indianapolis.
2. 3000+ jobs at Ford in Kentucky.
3. Apple wanting to move some things back to the US too
4. 1000 layed off going back to work at US Steel in the Granite City, Illinois area
5. US Steel stock has DOUBLED since Trump got elected. Expectations from real stock brokers (who do their math like you and Warren Buffet) who are betting their fortune on what that company is going to do in the near term future.
6. US stock market in general has been going wild in an upward direction of anticipation....

None of this is bullshit. The jobs are real. And Trump has been real too.

 

[RVonse]

Not even Trump has proposed smashing the looms. And if he did that, no one would dare start a business here. Jobs would flee at lightning speed.

He wants to make America great again. We will see. Thus far, I have not seen anything to show his desire he will not succeed. The only thing to prevent his success at this point will be his own party of republicans who hate the US middle class like you and Dismal.

 

[RVonse]

But those jobs are not coming back. Don't you realize that? Trump sold you a load of bullshit by acting like he can bring them back.

They are already coming back and he has not even taken the oath of office yet!:

1. 800 jobs at Carrier in Indianapolis.
2. 3000+ jobs at Ford in Kentucky.
3. Apple wanting to move some things back to the US too
4. 1000 layed off going back to work at US Steel in the Granite City, Illinois area
5. US Steel stock has DOUBLED since Trump got elected. Expectations from real stock brokers (who do their math like you and Warren Buffet) who are betting their fortune on what that company is going to do in the near term future.
6. US stock market in general has been going wild in an upward direction of anticipation....

None of this is bullshit. The jobs are real. And Trump has been real too.

One more thing that needs to be said about this....

The only load of bullshit we have been given is by people like you and Obama who said "the horse it out of the barn and we can't get it back again".

Meanwhile Obama (our real president) sits on his ass while Trump visits Carrier over Thanksgiving weekend in order to save some more USjobs.

That is what I think qualifies as real bullshit.

I can also imagine that most of the deplorable middle class workers were probably not as educated or book smart as either you or Dismal.....but they were still smart enough to elect Trump over what would have been Hillary's oligarchy elite. They could not have been any worse off than with Hillary, that I am sure of.

 

[Juma]

But those jobs are not coming back. Don't you realize that? Trump sold you a load of bullshit by acting like he can bring them back.

They are already coming back and he has not even taken the oath of office yet!:

1. 800 jobs at Carrier in Indianapolis.
2. 3000+ jobs at Ford in Kentucky.
3. Apple wanting to move some things back to the US too
4. 1000 layed off going back to work at US Steel in the Granite City, Illinois area


None of this is bullshit. The jobs are real. And Trump has been real too.

How many of theese has new jobs has actually been employed?

All of these exist only on paper. Noone has promised anything. It is nothing but hot air.

 

[arkirk]

I think it is past the time when we need to face the fact the old economic theories are falling apart and way behind the demands of the time. We need to reconfigure the methods we use to distribute wealth because the current system has been stunted by the greed of the uber rich. Automation and pollution the twin enemies of capitalism will not allow it to continue too much longer. I pointed out that all the dodging of the oligarchs will not allow some of us to escape the loot that is rightfully the property of the society as a whole. We may not be able to employ everybody, but we have to engage their needs. That man that can't see that is truly blind.

 

[arkirk]

The Chinese rust belt workers are definitely not "better off either."
View attachment 9241
Did you ever wonder why we seems to have a cleaner air than before. There are certain negative aspects of over manufacturing and pollution is one of them. It is not impossible to find the medical and social consequences of this kind of action also and add them into the "cost." Conservatives are people who only consider their personal costs and let the costs society pays go to hell. They don't pay the costs. They just facilitate society absorbing them.

You display an extreme and dangerous form of ignorance. You speak as if people would rather have this:

A family from China’s Guizhou Province sift through garbage in search of resellable items. China has reduced poverty dramatically over the years, but small pockets of communities under extreme poverty remain.

http://www.eco-business.com/news/china-sets-example-for-world-to-tackle-extreme-poverty/

And this:

Rather than have something approaching a middle class standard of living but dirty outdoor air (which is being addressed).

You really should get out and talk to some people in the developing world and actually see for yourself what absolute poverty looks like. Get out of your clean air bubble in comfortable and rich CA and explore the world a little bit.

What the fuck are you talking about? The pictures you have posted are pictures that only exist because of over production of environmentally harmful products. I have never advocated anything like the ideas you present as the only alternative the this sick philosophy of yours,,,Capitalism. You probably think Trump is your kind of fella. I think that right now. You have never seen me advocate cooking over an open fire indoors. You posted the picture of people wallowing in trash...most of which is that OVERPRODUCTION of which I have spoken many times. Industrial production needs to cost more and pollute less. So far producers just side step the issue. You throw the issue in my face like that is what I am advocating. I am advocating democracy in the workplace and that workplace should be populated by people with sound educations. You just want to deny part of the population any chance to justify its existence and set it up to operate in the dump. Those pictures are the result of things being done YOUR WAY. We need to change.

 

[DBT]

The idea that the living standard of all human inhabitants on Earth can be raised to current Western standards is a cruel hoax.

 

[Axulus]

The idea that the living standard of all human inhabitants on Earth can be raised to current Western standards is a cruel hoax.

Except China went from 80% to 10% absolute poverty rate in a 30 year period. That's almost a billion people. Whoops, looks like you aren't looking at the full picture. There is a _huge_ range between absolute poverty and Western standard of living.

 

[dismal]

Holy crap, do you bother to read?

My point was about paying more for something she we didn't have to. Let's assume seat belt laws are the greatest single achievement of mankind. Would we be better off paying $50 per seat belt or passing some law to make seat belt labor less efficient so we could pay $500?

We would be better off paying $500 if the opportunity costs exceed $450 with US workers losing employment of prime manufacturing jobs.

At least Axulus is honest enough to concede the fact there have been real and tangible costs to workers left high and dry in the rust belt. He does not believe the costs are that great, but fortunately Trump and about 1/2 of this country disagreed with Axulus viewpoint this last election.

I would imagine that neither you or Axulus place any significant value on those prime jobs leaving our country, simply because neither of you has any of your own employment at stake. Nor would I imagine that either of you mind living in a 3rd world country. But if your income happened to be personally dependent with US manufacturing, I am most certain you would not be saying the things you do.

I don't "deny" there are jobs lost when we fail to pass laws that require there to be 10 guys making seat belts when one would do, causing seatbelts to cost $500 instead of $50. There are 9 less guys getting paid to make seatbelts. If you want to think of that as 9 "jobs lost", so be it. You seem incapable of acknowledging what is gained: we have 9 more guys worth of labor that can be deployed into other things that make us better off. We have $450 more of cash to spend on other things.

 

[RVonse]

We would be better off paying $500 if the opportunity costs exceed $450 with US workers losing employment of prime manufacturing jobs.

At least Axulus is honest enough to concede the fact there have been real and tangible costs to workers left high and dry in the rust belt. He does not believe the costs are that great, but fortunately Trump and about 1/2 of this country disagreed with Axulus viewpoint this last election.

I would imagine that neither you or Axulus place any significant value on those prime jobs leaving our country, simply because neither of you has any of your own employment at stake. Nor would I imagine that either of you mind living in a 3rd world country. But if your income happened to be personally dependent with US manufacturing, I am most certain you would not be saying the things you do.

I don't "deny" there are jobs lost when we fail to pass laws that require there to be 10 guys making seat belts when one would do, causing seatbelts to cost $500 instead of $50. There are 9 less guys getting paid to make seatbelts. If you want to think of that as 9 "jobs lost", so be it. You seem incapable of acknowledging what is gained: we have 9 more guys worth of labor that can be deployed into other things that make us better off. We have $450 more of cash to spend on other things.

If you, Axulus, the Hillary lovers, and all the pointed head economic global elite are so learned in this subject......how come it hasn't worked for the US???

How come Detroit and Cleveland look like a big holes in the ground while China looks like Star Trek? Your calculations are seriously disconnected to what real experience has proved.

You are only lying to yourself if you think globalism has helped the US. It is past time for people like you guys to see that you are wrong. You desperately need to come up for some fresh air, to see the results of what lack of tariffs have done to the US. From the time of the beginning of the US to the civil war, EVERYTHING in our federal government was run from money only collected from tariffs. And somehow we grew from that into a superpower of the 1960's. Somehow the steel industry thrived in the norhern states with heavy tariffs. And we were always an exporter before globalism.

Hopefully the rest of us have enough integrity to at least tell the truth about what globalism has done.

The Obama "horses that are out of the barn" are about ready to be caught by Trump and put back in.

 

[dismal]

I don't "deny" there are jobs lost when we fail to pass laws that require there to be 10 guys making seat belts when one would do, causing seatbelts to cost $500 instead of $50. There are 9 less guys getting paid to make seatbelts. If you want to think of that as 9 "jobs lost", so be it. You seem incapable of acknowledging what is gained: we have 9 more guys worth of labor that can be deployed into other things that make us better off. We have $450 more of cash to spend on other things.

If you, Axulus, the Hillary lovers, and all the pointed head economic global elite are so learned in this subject......how come it hasn't worked for the US???

How come Detroit and Cleveland look like a big holes in the ground while China looks like Star Trek? Your calculations are seriously disconnected to what real experience has proved.

You are only lying to yourself if you think globalism has helped the US. It is past time for people like you guys to see that you are wrong. You desperately need to come up for some fresh air, to see the results of what lack of tariffs have done to the US. From the time of the beginning of the US to the civil war, EVERYTHING in our federal government was run from money only collected from tariffs. And somehow we grew from that into a superpower of the 1960's. Somehow the steel industry thrived in the norhern states with heavy tariffs. And we were always an exporter before globalism.

Hopefully the rest of us have enough integrity to at least tell the truth about what globalism has done.

The Obama "horses that are out of the barn" are about ready to be caught by Trump and put back in.

Define "worked". The US has a pretty high GDP per capita. And does not exactly follow the policies I support. But does more than, say Venezuela, Cuba or North Korea.