maxparrish
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Nate predicts a 60 percent chance the GOP will retake the Senate - who can object?
Nate predicts a 60 percent chance the GOP will retake the Senate - who can object?
Nate predicts a 60 percent chance the GOP will retake the Senate - who can object?
I will. Your pack of bastards isn't just going to NOT win the Senate, it's going to lose seats net.
I am sure he, as others, adjusted his methods after 2012 - most analysts do after an election. And by the way, he does not always error on behalf of Republicans, he under-estimated, more than most, the Republican House gains in 2010.If you look at his past Senate projections, Silver has been wrong in the GOP's favor every single time.
Most of this is laughable wishful thinking and faith based prayer. [/quote] Of course he left them out, only Bagdad Bob could sell these as in contention (hell, Wendy Davis is already in serious trouble).There are also three possible Democratic pickups listed by DSCC that he's leaving out: Maine, Georgia and Mississippi. To that I'd add South Carolina's non-special (and maybe its special) and Tennessee... possibly Texas if Wendy Davis can get the vote out for the no-name taking on Cormyn.
It might be helpful for you to open the hatch on the Democratic echo chamber and get a little fresh air with the pro's.The problem is that both the economy and opinions on Obamacare are going to improve. Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana are all going to firm up for the Democratic incumbent. Probably West Virginia too, especially if Capito loses the Primary. Montana will also hold firm. Kentucky we already know McConnell is dead in. The only Democratic held seats that actually worry me are West Virginia and South Dakota, and South Dakota much moreso. I'm certain that either Georgia or Maine will flip Blue, possibly both.
One last interesting thing to watch out for is if Brad Henry or Brad Carson jumps into one or both of the Oklahoma races.
The numbnuts will continue to send Tea Partiers to take down normal conservatives and lose for it.
In short, expect a net Tie in the Senate with a slight edge for Democratic gains.
I will. Your pack of bastards isn't just going to NOT win the Senate, it's going to lose seats net.
If you look at his past Senate projections, Silver has been wrong in the GOP's favor every single time.
This projection is based on zero current polling, as his own dunces admit.
There are also three possible Democratic pickups listed by DSCC that he's leaving out: Maine, Georgia and Mississippi.
To that I'd add South Carolina's non-special (and maybe its special) and Tennessee... possibly Texas if Wendy Davis can get the vote out for the no-name taking on Cormyn.
The problem is that both the economy and opinions on Obamacare are going to improve. Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana are all going to firm up for the Democratic incumbent. Probably West Virginia too, especially if Capito loses the Primary. Montana will also hold firm. Kentucky we already know McConnell is dead in. The only Democratic held seats that actually worry me are West Virginia and South Dakota, and South Dakota much moreso. I'm certain that either Georgia or Maine will flip Blue, possibly both.
One last interesting thing to watch out for is if Brad Henry or Brad Carson jumps into one or both of the Oklahoma races.
The numbnuts will continue to send Tea Partiers to take down normal conservatives and lose for it.
In short, expect a net Tie in the Senate with a slight edge for Democratic gains.
I don't know what I'll put the probability at, but Nate's model isn't that compelling at this juncture. We'd be getting more through dynamic analyses of the races that I think explain things like why Hagan, Begich, and maybe even Landrieu will have less difficulty getting the kinds of votes 538 and most others are saying they can't get. The extrapolation from national or presidential demographics just don't cut it. Certain regions vote differently demographically.
Regardless, Nate's model is superfluous and tells us virtually nothing. When accurate information is available, it is baked into the polls