• Welcome to the new Internet Infidels Discussion Board, formerly Talk Freethought.

New study claims 20 times more jobs created than lost with Trump tarrifs

One more article I just read today, related to my OP. It is an editorial from FOX news so most likely will get shunned here.


As well it should. Fox is such an ardent cheerleader for Trump that I hear he's already asked them to be his date at the big homecoming dance this fall.
 
But quoting a paper saying free trade is better does not help. Since nobody in the world is doing this to begin with.
You missed the point. Trade increases GDP and job . Which implies that reducing trade (which is protectionism) reduces GDP and reduces jobs.

Right now, the steel and aluminum industries appear to be beneficiaries of these tariffs but all the users of steel and aluminum are losers. In addition, all the sectors that are hit but retalitory tariffs are losers.
 
But quoting a paper saying free trade is better does not help. Since nobody in the world is doing this to begin with.
You missed the point. Trade increases GDP and job . Which implies that reducing trade (which is protectionism) reduces GDP and reduces jobs.

Right now, the steel and aluminum industries appear to be beneficiaries of these tariffs but all the users of steel and aluminum are losers. In addition, all the sectors that are hit but retalitory tariffs are losers.

Reducing trade reduces GDP and jobs, yes I agree. Every country is better off if every country has no tariff.

But the trade war really has nothing to do with that fact. We know that guns kill people so don't shoot your gun at another person. Does knowing that mean you should never shoot your gun at someone who is already shooting at you in order to save your own life? Trump does not think so and I agree with him.
 
Trump does not think so and I agree with him.

The tangerine traitor is WRONG. He has the IQ of a small soap dish and knows (fuck-all)2 about economics and trade. Every actual trade and economic expert says the idea is lunacy.....and it is. That you agree with him doesn't reflect well on you.
 
Enacting tariffs is shooting yourself in the foot.
 
Here is a link to an academic paper on the gains from trade (http://www.nber.org/digest/apr18/w24407.shtml) which estimates that international trade increases US GDP between 2% and 8%. Current US GDP is about 18.5 trillion dollars, so this study estimated that international trade increases US GDP between 370 billion to about 1.5 trillion dollars. Currently around 160 million persons are employed in the US ==> GDP per worker = 18.5 trillion / 160 million =115,000 $ per worker. So, international trade increases job by at least an estimated 370billion/115,000 or about 32,000 jobs.

And that is with lower tariffs. Restricting trade has to reduce those jobs.

I've always agreed protectionism hurts the economy and job growth too. That is the position of Trump as well. Trumps position is that no country (including the US) should have trade restriction. That has never happened before in world trade....but that is his position.
Fair enough on your views. I won't bother commenting on what you think Don the Con believes...

We live in the real world. In the real world there are unfair protecting practices going on all the time. Under that circumstance you either fight back or garrantee losing ground on jobs and industry.
Yes, "we live in the real world". Which is an ironic statement in that you are sourcing from alt-reality Breitbart, though it may be no worse than citing Paul Craig Roberts...

The real question everyone should be responding to is whether what Trump has just done is an improvement to the existing US trade deficit of over $1 biilion. Some here have said the article is biased and too early to know for the future. So that makes sense to me. We can still wait for the future results to see if there is an overall improvement to the US economy.
Maybe you should start with real facts... The 2017 Trade Gap was $568.4 Billion for U.S. international trade in goods and services, per the BEA. See linky:
https://bea.gov/newsreleases/international/trade/2018/pdf/trad0118annual_fax.pdf

Yeah, it is too early since the tariff skirmishes have only just recently started. Maybe we will have some real data by next summer, based upon any international trade deals that might or might not be made... If it just remains tariff skirmishes, then we probably won't have good results.
 
Reducing trade reduces GDP and jobs, yes I agree. Every country is better off if every country has no tariff.

But the trade war really has nothing to do with that fact.
I Reducing trade will reduce our GDP (or lower its growth), regardless of whether our partners are playing "fair". But I agree that the trade war has nothing to do with economic reality or economic sense,
We know that guns kill people so don't shoot your gun at another person. Does knowing that mean you should never shoot your gun at someone who is already shooting at you in order to save your own life? Trump does not think so and I agree with him.
That makes sense only if you are saying that Chinese, Canadian and European trade policy is killing our economy. Since our economy is doing well (in fact better than the Chinese, Canadian or European economy as a whole), your point is based on economic fantasy.
 
We all benefit from more free trade, cheap labor, and global competition.

Whereas protecting "jobs" of certain parasites at the expense of everyone else makes our economy worse, not better.


You can bolster domestic businesses with protectionist activities.

We've known that for a long time.

But let's call it what it is.

Protectionism.

Not free market capitalism.

You would be right if all nations were tariff-free but sadly, that is not the case. Trump has said many times that his ultimate goal is for no country to have any tariffs. And that is what free trade is really supposed to mean.

No, it also means unilateral free trade, where the smart country eliminates the trade barriers even if other countries do not. This has happened many times, in degrees, and the more-free-trade countries do just as well or better.

Possibly you could argue that there is a loss of "jobs" without the protectionism, and there's no way to disprove that. But if all you want is artificial "jobs" for the sake of "jobs," regardless of the general standard of living, we can always have more "jobs" by getting rid of the robots and computers, and also by building more bridges to nowhere. China has increased their artificial jobs by building whole cities which no one lives in, just in order to put people to work, at "jobs" that produce little value.

What creates real prosperity is not the artificial "jobs" that protectionism can create, in some cases, but improved competition to force producers to improve their performance. There's no evidence that China's standard of living is higher because of all the artificial "jobs" it creates with its protectionism and makework programs.


But whenever Trump mentions that ALL countries remove tariffs, other leaders are simply not interested. It's the rest of the world that is not yet ready for free trade.

Singapore and Hong Kong are ready for free trade and have a higher standard of living because of it. Some countries are closer to free trade than the U.S.

It's only the uncompetitive crybabies who need protectionism. Producers who are competitive don't need it, and virtually everyone is made better off by the increased competition, even if the total number of "jobs" is slightly lower.

Just because makework and corporate welfare and protectionism might benefit certain select producers does not translate into a net benefit to the whole population, all consumers, who are universally penalized by the trade barriers and have to pay higher cost in order to subsidize the minority of crybabies who need the protection.


Trump is correct and now even conservative talk hosts like Rush Limbaugh agree with him.

There could be some truth to this, but only if countries like China give in and reduce their trade barriers. If they do not, the trade war will be a loss for the U.S., and the Limbaughs know this. They are counting on Trump driving a hard bargain and pressuring China to give in. It's his negotiating power they are counting on. It's a gamble and could backfire.


The US needs tariffs to globally compete in the tariff war we have already been losing for 30 years.

But what are we "losing"? The standard of living is not lower because of this. Having extra "jobs" does not automatically mean a higher living standard. China and other protectionist countries are harming themselves more than the U.S. Unless you assume that a successful economy means providing artificial "jobs" to keep crybabies out of mischief. It's obviously not for a higher standard of living that we need these "jobs" Trump is producing.

And much of the aggressiveness of China is really in their low cost of labor rather than their trade barriers or tariffs. Which means it's more their competitiveness in labor that's driving the trade imbalance. So we're not "losing" much because of the tariffs, but rather because our labor force has too many crybabies who demand to be paid more than they're worth.

So it's not clear that we've been "losing" anything. You can't name what we've been "losing" -- other than artificial "jobs" for uncompetitive crybabies who demand to be paid more than they're worth. But pandering to these crybabies does not make the country better off. Rather it makes most of us worse off -- i.e., ALL consumers are made worse off by the artificially-high labor cost, and it's overall a net loss for the economy. Whereas taking advantage of the cheap foreign labor makes us all better off.

Because ALL cheap labor makes the economy, i.e., consumers, better off. I.e., ALL competition makes us better off, by driving down production cost and prices and increasing production. Whereas artificially high cost (e.g., high labor cost) drives up prices we all have to pay, which reduces our living standard.


The fact this hasn't been done already simply displays how incompetent our politicians have been.

No, there's nothing competent about driving up costs, like labor costs, and thus forcing consumers to pay higher prices. There's nothing competent about ignoring supply & demand and making us all pay higher prices in order to subsidize the incomes of a few crybaby steel-workers and auto-workers etc. at everyone else's expense.


But more on topic, the tariffs being played today are not just temporary support, they are meant to give the US an equal opportunity.

But all that's "equal" is the higher cost of production and assault on consumers to pay for the artificial "jobs" to be created. Who needs that kind of "equality"?

They drive up U.S. labor cost and make the production more expensive by forcing companies to produce in the U.S. even though the production would be more efficient in Asia.

They're intended to produce more artificial "jobs" in the U.S., if that's what you mean by "equal opportunity," but this kind of "equal opportunity" is one which will make U.S. consumers poorer, by driving up costs we have to pay. It really means to punish U.S. consumers more equally to how China punishes its consumers, thus making us worse off, reducing our living standard, as a price to produce more equality.

What good is "equality" if the price for it is a lower standard of living?


IOW, the Trump tariffs are not just a temp sugar high.

Perhaps in a sense, yes, because the goal is to maximize "jobs" for crybabies, as the permanent long-term goal, at the cost of a lower standard of living to pay for it.

Just as China has many artificial "jobs" produced by its assault on their consumers, who have a lower standard of living because of it. But you can call that a long-term result, rather than a short-term high, and desirable because a country has to find artificial "jobs" to put the rabble into, who are really worthless and must be put into these artificial "jobs" in order to keep them out of mischief.

Assuming that's what you mean, then yes, you do have a point.

But not everyone agrees with your ultimate goal of more artificial "jobs" to absorb all the uncompetitive crybabies at the price of a lower standard of living for most of the population.

(Though admittedly many do seem to favor "jobs" for the rabble over the general welfare of all the citizens. Apparently the premise is that unless we provide all these artificial "jobs" at any cost, the rabble will go on a rampage and destroy our cities.)
 
Forcing free trade on nations produces capitalist prizes like Guatemala and Haiti.

That is what free trade looks like.

The rich nations have never practiced it.

They wouldn't be rich nations if they had.

Alexander Hamilton immediately began instituting protectionist policies. He saw that is how England became rich.

It is a stroke of fate that the US had Hamilton. Without him the nation most likely would have gone bankrupt and lost the War of 1812.

Ronald Reagan instituted protectionist policies. They helped.

Trump is becoming the champion of protectionism.

Free trade is a losing strategy.
 
Forcing free trade on nations produces capitalist prizes like Guatemala and Haiti.

That is what free trade looks like.

The rich nations have never practiced it.

They wouldn't be rich nations if they had.

Alexander Hamilton immediately began instituting protectionist policies. He saw that is how England became rich.

It is a stroke of fate that the US had Hamilton. Without him the nation most likely would have gone bankrupt and lost the War of 1812.

Ronald Reagan instituted protectionist policies. They helped.

Trump is becoming the champion of protectionism.

Free trade is a losing strategy.

Interesting. Would you happen to have a link or study that would support your theory that free trade doesn't work?
 
Forcing free trade on nations produces capitalist prizes like Guatemala and Haiti.

That is what free trade looks like.

The rich nations have never practiced it.

They wouldn't be rich nations if they had.

Alexander Hamilton immediately began instituting protectionist policies. He saw that is how England became rich.

It is a stroke of fate that the US had Hamilton. Without him the nation most likely would have gone bankrupt and lost the War of 1812.

Ronald Reagan instituted protectionist policies. They helped.

Trump is becoming the champion of protectionism.

Free trade is a losing strategy.

Interesting. Would you happen to have a link or study that would support your theory that free trade doesn't work?

Show me where it exists first.

Free trade is something strong nations impose on weak nations to infiltrate and dominate markets.

Strong nations don't use it themselves.
 
No, it also means unilateral free trade, where the smart country eliminates the trade barriers even if other countries do not. This has happened many times, in degrees, and the more-free-trade countries do just as well or better.
See untermensche post with regards to Hamilton. He is exactly right.
Possibly you could argue that there is a loss of "jobs" without the protectionism, and there's no way to disprove that. But if all you want is artificial "jobs" for the sake of "jobs," regardless of the general standard of living, we can always have more "jobs" by getting rid of the robots and computers, and also by building more bridges to nowhere. China has increased their artificial jobs by building whole cities which no one lives in, just in order to put people to work, at "jobs" that produce little value.

What creates real prosperity is not the artificial "jobs" that protectionism can create, in some cases, but improved competition to force producers to improve their performance. There's no evidence that China's standard of living is higher because of all the artificial "jobs" it creates with its protectionism and makework programs.
There is direct evidence that protectionism helped Japan with their electronics and auto industry. And the same kind of protectionism has helped China with their steel industry.
It's only the uncompetitive crybabies who need protectionism. Producers who are competitive don't need it, and virtually everyone is made better off by the increased competition, even if the total number of "jobs" is slightly lower.

Just because makework and corporate welfare and protectionism might benefit certain select producers does not translate into a net benefit to the whole population, all consumers, who are universally penalized by the trade barriers and have to pay higher cost in order to subsidize the minority of crybabies who need the protection.
It helps the crybabies but it also helps the country retain manufacturing. Its the manufacturing that makes the difference to a nation. The nation has to actually make something of value to generate wealth. And services are a poor substitute because those jobs lack the automation leverage inherent manufacturing. Financial services are a complete failure as a substitute, you need look no further than the 2008 banking failure. You can't just move paper around to each other and pretend you have made something of value. The only reason the US remains as well as it has is its reserve currency status but that is nothing that should be taken for granted.

Trump is correct and now even conservative talk hosts like Rush Limbaugh agree with him.

There could be some truth to this, but only if countries like China give in and reduce their trade barriers. If they do not, the trade war will be a loss for the U.S., and the Limbaughs know this. They are counting on Trump driving a hard bargain and pressuring China to give in. It's his negotiating power they are counting on. It's a gamble and could backfire.
Yes it could. But that is what real leadership is. Knowing ahead of time the most likely odds and thenexecuting a plan of attack.


But what are we "losing"?
We almost lost the steel industry and the tax base that came with it. And steel is huge. You can go to war if Japan makes all the tv sets. And you can go to war if Japan makes all the automobiles. But you can not go to war if China makes all the steel. You are no longer a superpower at that point.

And yes, the steel industry almost failed under Obama's watch. Stock price of US Steel went all the way down to the low 7's, a market capitalization less than what their land and buildings could have sold for. Their stock is now up to the 30's now, looks more sustainable at this point. But even more importantly, the current CEO is wisely making huge desperately needed capital improvements with earnings from the tariffs. He could have given it away to the short term thinking shareholders. Under Trumps leadership, US Steel may actually survive now. And that will be a very good thing for America even if you do not realize it.

What short term thinkers like yourself do not understand is the value of being lost. It is soooo much easier to save a manufacturing plant than it is to try to start one from the ground. And its like that in sales too. If you already have a customer than try to keep that customer rather than have to cold call later.

And much of the aggressiveness of China is really in their low cost of labor rather than their trade barriers or tariffs. Which means it's more their competitiveness in labor that's driving the trade imbalance. So we're not "losing" much because of the tariffs, but rather because our labor force has too many crybabies who demand to be paid more than they're worth.

So it's not clear that we've been "losing" anything. You can't name what we've been "losing" -- other than artificial "jobs" for uncompetitive crybabies who demand to be paid more than they're worth. But pandering to these crybabies does not make the country better off. Rather it makes most of us worse off -- i.e., ALL consumers are made worse off by the artificially-high labor cost, and it's overall a net loss for the economy. Whereas taking advantage of the cheap foreign labor makes us all better off.
We have huge swaths of land called the rust belt that used to be highly prosperous US counties. Go to Detroit, St. Louis, Cleveland, etc and tell me that looks prosperous. Tell me that looks like a 1st world superpower.

Then go to Shanghai and ride a state of the art mag lev train that was produced with Chinese manufacturing prosperity. A mag train so expensive that the Germans who designed it can not even afford to build one in their country. That is where some of the losing took place.
 
We have huge swaths of land called the rust belt that used to be highly prosperous US counties. Go to Detroit, St. Louis, Cleveland, etc and tell me that looks prosperous. Tell me that looks like a 1st world superpower.

Then go to Shanghai and ride a state of the art mag lev train that was produced with Chinese manufacturing prosperity. A mag train so expensive that the Germans who designed it can not even afford to build one in their country. That is where some of the losing took place.

That's US domestic policy at work. To offshore manufacturing and not replace those jobs is a political choice. Blaming the Chinese or anyone foreign for what happened to Detroit is blindness.

China invests in it's infrastructure. We don't. You realize that they're not spending dollars to do this, right?
 
We have huge swaths of land called the rust belt that used to be highly prosperous US counties. Go to Detroit, St. Louis, Cleveland, etc and tell me that looks prosperous. Tell me that looks like a 1st world superpower.

Then go to Shanghai and ride a state of the art mag lev train that was produced with Chinese manufacturing prosperity. A mag train so expensive that the Germans who designed it can not even afford to build one in their country. That is where some of the losing took place.

That's US domestic policy at work....

The policy was the freedom of business owners to do it.

They decided to seek the lowest labor costs possible.

The pace at which China has modernized has created a lot of pollution however.

Riches vs the ability to breath and drink the water?
 
We have huge swaths of land called the rust belt that used to be highly prosperous US counties. Go to Detroit, St. Louis, Cleveland, etc and tell me that looks prosperous.

Cleveland
0b05015f-150d7e5ea4b.jpg


Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh-Night.jpg


Shit holes I tell ya!

That's US domestic policy at work. To offshore manufacturing and not replace those jobs is a political choice. Blaming the Chinese or anyone foreign for what happened to Detroit is blindness.
The jobs were in large part replaced. You'll notice that there are a lot of Americans working.

China invests in it's infrastructure.
China is building from scratch!
 
The jobs were in large part replaced. You'll notice that there are a lot of Americans working.

China invests in it's infrastructure.
China is building from scratch!

80% of workers live paycheck to paycheck.

The U6 rate is 7.5% and participation is till below 2008.

Do we have to get out the wage charts as well?

Want ice with that Kool-aid?
 
The jobs were in large part replaced. You'll notice that there are a lot of Americans working.

China invests in it's infrastructure.
China is building from scratch!

80% of workers live paycheck to paycheck.

The U6 rate is 7.5% and participation is till below 2008.

Do we have to get out the wage charts as well?

Want ice with that Kool-aid?
The U6 rate is near levels at the end of the Internet boom. Participation is lower in part because the Baby Boomers are retiring.

Wage growth isn't keeping up with inflation because management is squeezing the fuck out its work force, in part due to needing to be more efficient relatively weak economy in the 00's and ultimately the Great Recession. Then they started making oodles of money with a leaner work force and currently management thinks this is sustainable (it isn't).

The US has transitioned into a service economy from a primarily manufacturing economy. This is a fact. And even then, automation, computers, and efficiency have resulted in fewer jobs in those fields, as well as the remaining manufacturing. Fact remains, the US gave away out manufacturing to China and Asia. Automation is costing Americans jobs in coal mining, manufacturing, all other fields. Of course, automation is affecting Europe and the rest of the world.
 
80% of workers live paycheck to paycheck.

The U6 rate is 7.5% and participation is till below 2008.

Do we have to get out the wage charts as well?

Want ice with that Kool-aid?
The U6 rate is near levels at the end of the Internet boom. Participation is lower in part because the Baby Boomers are retiring.

Wage growth isn't keeping up with inflation because management is squeezing the fuck out its work force, in part due to needing to be more efficient relatively weak economy in the 00's and ultimately the Great Recession. Then they started making oodles of money with a leaner work force and currently management thinks this is sustainable (it isn't).

The US has transitioned into a service economy from a primarily manufacturing economy. This is a fact. And even then, automation, computers, and efficiency have resulted in fewer jobs in those fields, as well as the remaining manufacturing. Fact remains, the US gave away out manufacturing to China and Asia. Automation is costing Americans jobs in coal mining, manufacturing, all other fields. Of course, automation is affecting Europe and the rest of the world.

"in part" IOW participation is below GFC levels.

Whatever. People aren't getting paid. It doesn't have to be that way.

Since all necessities can be made by an increasingly smaller portion of the population, the rest of the economy is discretionary. There is no "fact" or "law" that says we must tolerate high unemployment and low wages. It's political.
 
Back
Top Bottom