Ossoff/Handel race - what are the implications?

[Elixir]

We'll find out who wins by tomorrow night unless it's really really close...

I am interested in what y'all believe to be the implications if the seat falls to the Dems, or if it stays red.
I was reading Breitbart on it - looks like a lot of trumpsters think (not without cause) that this election is being bought by the Democrats. Democrats seem to be playing down the prospect of victory, saying that even if it's close it shows a crumbling of "the base". I can't see how it's as consequential as either side thinks/pretends.

What do you think?

 

[arkirk]

We'll find out who wins by tomorrow night unless it's really really close...

I am interested in what y'all believe to be the implications if the seat falls to the Dems, or if it stays red.
I was reading Breitbart on it - looks like a lot of trumpsters think (not without cause) that this election is being bought by the Democrats. Democrats seem to be playing down the prospect of victory, saying that even if it's close it shows a crumbling of "the base". I can't see how it's as consequential as either side thinks/pretends.

What do you think?

Ossoff is a Neoliberal who would oppose single payer health programs and in fact most of what progressives would support anyway. He is running in an area where that is the only type of candidate with a chance. Because of this, I don't think his election would mean a damned thing.

 

[beero1000]

I think what Nate Silver tells me to think. ;P

So there are a lot of rather different, but nevertheless entirely reasonable, ways to interpret what might constitute a good or bad result for the parties on Tuesday. If either Handel or Ossoff wins by more than about 5 percentage points — which is entirely possible given the historic (in)accuracy of special election polls — you can dispense with some of the subtlety in interpreting the results, especially if the South Carolina outcome tells a similar story. Otherwise, Tuesday’s results probably ought to be interpreted with a fair amount of caution — and they probably won’t be.

Basically, it's a bellwether election but, as usual, both sides will be able to spin the most likely outcomes (any reasonably close race).

 

[blastula]

I would think that Congressional Republicans will look to the results to see how they should proceed.

 

[braces_for_impact]

I really don't know. Considering what's happening in the White House, and with ACA in secret behind shady Republican doors, even were I a Republican, I would be very concerned about the loss of democracy taking place today. If Ossof wins, it's tempting for my mind to wander towards advance warning of intense Republican backlash. Then, I remember, that would require a modicum of faith in the American electorate, and I have to remind myself to never, ever do that again. So, fuck it, I don't know.

 

[Elixir]

We'll find out who wins by tomorrow night unless it's really really close...

I am interested in what y'all believe to be the implications if the seat falls to the Dems, or if it stays red.
I was reading Breitbart on it - looks like a lot of trumpsters think (not without cause) that this election is being bought by the Democrats. Democrats seem to be playing down the prospect of victory, saying that even if it's close it shows a crumbling of "the base". I can't see how it's as consequential as either side thinks/pretends.

What do you think?

Ossoff is a Neoliberal who would oppose single payer health programs and in fact most of what progressives would support anyway. He is running in an area where that is the only type of candidate with a chance. Because of this, I don't think his election would mean a damned thing.

I think Ossoff, if elected, would be pretty malleable by whatever Democrat faction comes into power in 2018. Pigeonholing him isn't really constructive at this point. The question is, does the defeat of a Republican in a dead red area portend a Dem rout in '18.
A lot of people are acting as if it's a big deal. How big a deal is it, in terms of impact on future election(s)??

 

[Elixir]

I would think that Congressional Republicans will look to the results to see how they should proceed.

That seems to be widely agreed. But why? Seriously - if Ossoff wins by 10 points I don't think they jump on the dump trump wagon. And if Handel wins by 10 points I don't think they will all go all in for Cheato.
I think they'll be a little bit paralyzed if it's too close or Ossoff wins - but even that, might be just enough so that some might not support the ACHA surprise party in a pre 7/4 vote. That would be significant.

I promised my tearful wife that Trump would do "nothing". So far, that's been as close to the case as I could have hoped. Lordy, let it be so, pleeeeze

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Neither candidate is campaigning for or against Trump. Only the voters are doing that. Ossoff likely loses, but it'll be closer than it would have been had someone normal won the General Election.

The Republican Party, and their voters, have shown they have absolutely no legitimacy being allowed to vote.

 

[iolo]

Neither candidate is campaigning for or against Trump. Only the voters are doing that. Ossoff likely loses, but it'll be closer than it would have been had someone normal won the General Election.

The Republican Party, and their voters, have shown they have absolutely no legitimacy being allowed to vote.

I think that while you have a weirdo like Trump in office, any election is bound to turn into a plebiscite on whether to get nuttier or take the cure.

 

[Malintent]

I promised my tearful wife that Trump would do "nothing". So far, that's been as close to the case as I could have hoped. Lordy, let it be so, pleeeeze

I have had multiple experiences like that with my wife... and her cousins... and her mother...

 

[zorq]

Ossoff's positive ads were good but his negative ads were weak compared to Handel's. The positive ads are great for name recognition but I think it's the negative ads that really influence turnout. I don't predict an Ossoff win.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Ossoff's positive ads were good but his negative ads were weak compared to Handel's. The positive ads are great for name recognition but I think it's the negative ads that really influence turnout. I don't predict an Ossoff win.

In general, yeah. They played a few on NPR and I couldn't stand them. The negative ads reek of hyperbole.

Ossoff wants to let Syrian terrorists into the United States and live right next to your home, in your home... let them fuck your wife! And Muslims don't use condoms! On election day, vote for the candidate that won't allow terrorists to move in as your neighbors and bear terror babies with your wife.

 

[Elixir]

Ossoff's positive ads were good but his negative ads were weak compared to Handel's. The positive ads are great for name recognition but I think it's the negative ads that really influence turnout. I don't predict an Ossoff win.

In general, yeah. They played a few on NPR and I couldn't stand them. The negative ads reek of hyperbole.

Ossoff wants to let Syrian terrorists into the United States and live right next to your home, in your home... let them fuck your wife! And Muslims don't use condoms! On election day, vote for the candidate that won't allow terrorists to move in as your neighbors and bear terror babies with your wife.

That district is pretty well educated. I suspect that there's a point at which most 6th district voters are turned off by "Ossoff is going to rape your baby" crap.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

The race is too close to call. I am hoping for Ossoff, but Handel might squeak out a win. I hope Ossoff wins, but at this point I am resigned for more disappointment. Handel's ridiculous attack ads demonstrate she is not fit to hold office. Polls close in 6 hours or so.

 

[Elixir]

“I think the shooting is going to win this election for us,” said Brad Carver, a Republican official in Georgia at the county and state level.

YAY, Shootings! Way to support your local terrorist, bubba.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Right wingers just don't give a fuck about anything but not voting for demon baby rapers... I mean Democrats. 2018 may already be lost. Hell, Trump could get impeached and the right wingers will compartmentalize as needed and send Republicans back to Congress.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[funinspace]

Right wingers just don't give a fuck about anything but not voting for demon baby rapers... I mean Democrats. 2018 may already be lost. Hell, Trump could get impeached and the right wingers will compartmentalize as needed and send Republicans back to Congress.

I think people need to keep some perspective here. The Georgia 6th District has been a very safe Repug place for a long time. The Dums threw everything into a Don Quixote run, and got within 4 points. I think that is pretty damn good results, even though it was a waste of money...

Recent differentials:
2016: 23pts
2014: 32pts
2012: 29pts
2010: NA, as no Dum even ran
2008: 37pts
2006: 64pts
2004: NA, as no Dum even ran
2002: 59pts

 

[dismal]

Right wingers just don't give a fuck about anything but not voting for demon baby rapers... I mean Democrats. 2018 may already be lost. Hell, Trump could get impeached and the right wingers will compartmentalize as needed and send Republicans back to Congress.

I think people need to keep some perspective here. The Georgia 6th District has been a very safe Repug place for a long time. The Dums threw everything into a Don Quixote run, and got within 4 points. I think that is pretty damn good results, even though it was a waste of money...

Recent differentials:
2016: 23pts
2014: 32pts
2012: 29pts
2010: NA, as no Dum even ran
2008: 37pts
2006: 64pts
2004: NA, as no Dum even ran
2002: 59pts

I thought I read Trump won it by 1 point?

 

[funinspace]

Thread title: Ossoff/Handel race - what are the implications?

I think people need to keep some perspective here. The Georgia 6th District has been a very safe Repug place for a long time. The Dums threw everything into a Don Quixote run, and got within 4 points. I think that is pretty damn good results, even though it was a waste of money...

Recent differentials:
2016: 23pts
2014: 32pts
2012: 29pts
2010: NA, as no Dum even ran
2008: 37pts
2006: 64pts
2004: NA, as no Dum even ran
2002: 59pts

I thought I read Trump won it by 1 point?

He did, and this morning I saw the sun rise up from the east, yet again...

 

[dismal]

This about covers it:

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