Peltola defeats Palin

[Arctish]

For the first time in almost 50 years, a Democrat will represent Alaska in the U.S. House of Representatives.

Also, Sarah Palin lost to a virtual unknown.

Democrat Mary Peltola wins upset in Alaska special election

 

[bilby]

Who's Sarah Palin?

 

[Derec]

Dobbs is the best thing to happen to the Democratic Party electorally in decades.

 

[Rhea]

Dobbs is the best thing to happen to the Democratic Party electorally in decades.

Yeah, but kind of in a sad way - that it took the Republicans actually achieving active harm for people who say they care about human rights to wake up.

If white women had been a little more aware of how much on the edge everyone else was, we’d have noticed BEFORE Dobbs, not after.

 

[TLK Valentine]

Dobbs is the best thing to happen to the Democratic Party electorally in decades.

Yeah, but kind of in a sad way - that it took the Republicans actually achieving active harm for people who say they care about human rights to wake up.

If white women had been a little more aware of how much on the edge everyone else was, we’d have noticed BEFORE Dobbs, not after.

In all fairness, the GOP spent so many years tilting at that particular windmill that I doubt even they expected to ever succeed.
Roe being overturned was about as serious a threat as a Godzilla attack... Only when the threat became real was it taken seriously.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

From NPR, Peltola 51.5%, Palin 48.5%. But this win is just for a few months. Alaska has to vote again for the 2922 term November. But Peltola should win then.

It is notable Peltola placed pro-choice front and center in her campaign and it looks like that was a winning issue. That will be interesting to see if that position is a winner come November. Or if the real issue was simply Alaskans have had a belly full of Palin.

Other than that, a loud Bwahahaha! To Palin. Now go away. Of course Palin could try again come November.

 

[Arctish]

November results could very well be the same as the Special Election results.

Only about half of the people who voted for Nick Begich put down Sarah Palin as their second choice. Thirty percent ranked Peltola second while 21% declined to select anyone. If Begich drops out and his supporters still won't go for Palin (and they're not likely to change their minds about her), Peltola could win a full term.

If Palin drops out then the Republicans could probably rally their base to support Begich but I don't think she will.

 

[Blahface]

I haven't been here in a while, but I have to say that this looks like it was a failure. Polling was pretty accurate saying that Peltola would beat Palin 51% to 49% if they went head to head. The polling also said that Nick Begich would beat Peltola head to head by about 10 pts. One poll said it would be 55% to 45% and other said 57% to 43%. I hope they release the full data so we can be know for sure who the Condorcet winner is.

My guess is that Republicans will vote smarter in November and rank Begich first. Maybe the bandwagon effect will help Peltola though and give her enough of a bump to beat Begich. Or, maybe Republicans will continue to be morons and pick Palin to go into the final round again.

 

[bleubird]

I haven't been here in a while, but I have to say that this looks like it was a failure. Polling was pretty accurate saying that Peltola would beat Palin 51% to 49% if they went head to head. The polling also said that Nick Begich would beat Peltola head to head by about 10 pts. One poll said it would be 55% to 45% and other said 57% to 43%. I hope they release the full data so we can be know for sure who the Condorcet winner is.

My guess is that Republicans will vote smarter in November and rank Begich first. Maybe the bandwagon effect will help Peltola though and give her enough of a bump to beat Begich. Or, maybe Republicans will continue to be morons and pick Palin to go into the final round again.

As an Alaskan I don't have a feel for this yet. I live in the southeast,that tends to vote Dem.We hated Palin cause she would not live here.
The native culture is very strong here,so Peltola may do well.

 

[lpetrich]

Alaska At-Large Congressional District Special Election Results 2022 - The New York Times

Candidate	1st Votes	1st Pct	Transfer	2nd Votes	2nd Pct
Mary Peltola (D)	74,807	39.7%	+16,399	91,206	51.5%
Sara Palin (R)	58.328	30.9%	+27,659	85,987	48.5%
Nick Begich (R)	52,504	27.8%	-52,504
Write-ins / Dropped	2,971	1.6%	+8,446

So about half of Nick Begich's voters voted for Sarah Palin as their second preference and 1/3 for Mary Peltola, with 1/6 having no second preference.

 

[Jayjay]

So... Palin needed about 6k votes, but Begich voters didn't put down Palin's name for over 8k votes. Reasons for such could be:

1) Not caring whether Palin or Peltola wins.
2) Thinking Palin will win anyway.
3) No understanding how the vote works.

If they wisen up and vote smarter in November, it's not inconceivable that Palin can get enough second votes to win.

Are second votes of Palin and Peltola voters counted at all?

 

[Blahface]

If they wisen up and vote smarter in November, it's not inconceivable that Palin can get enough second votes to win.

Are second votes of Palin and Peltola voters counted at all?

I think the smarter thing for Republican voters to do would be to just rank Begich first. Second votes don't count unless you are eliminated.

 

[Arctish]

So... Palin needed about 6k votes, but Begich voters didn't put down Palin's name for over 8k votes. Reasons for such could be:

1) Not caring whether Palin or Peltola wins.
2) Thinking Palin will win anyway.
3) No understanding how the vote works.

If they wisen up and vote smarter in November, it's not inconceivable that Palin can get enough second votes to win.

Are second votes of Palin and Peltola voters counted at all?

You forgot:

4) Despising Sarah Palin.

A lot of Alaskans deeply resent her for abandoning her elected position to enrich herself as a celebrity talking head on Fox News. She was halfway through her term as Governor when she walked off the job. And even when she was here, she stayed home in Wasilla (probably because her husband refused to take care of the kids) and collected the per diem the State gives to employees who are working away from their regular duty station, which in her case was the Governor's mansion in Juneau.

She disappointed a lot of people, moved to Arizona years ago, and only showed a renewed interest in Alaska politics when she saw an opportunity to be elected to Congress.

 

[Harry Bosch]

So... Palin needed about 6k votes, but Begich voters didn't put down Palin's name for over 8k votes. Reasons for such could be:

1) Not caring whether Palin or Peltola wins.
2) Thinking Palin will win anyway.
3) No understanding how the vote works.

If they wisen up and vote smarter in November, it's not inconceivable that Palin can get enough second votes to win.

Are second votes of Palin and Peltola voters counted at all?

You forgot:

4) Despising Sarah Palin.

A lot of Alaskans deeply resent her for abandoning her elected position to enrich herself as a celebrity talking head on Fox News. She was halfway through her term as Governor when she walked off the job. And even when she was here, she stayed home in Wasilla (probably because her husband refused to take care of the kids) and collected the per diem the State gives to employees who are working away from their regular duty station, which in her case was the Governor's mansion in Juneau.

She disappointed a lot of people, moved to Arizona years ago, and only showed a renewed interest in Alaska politics when she saw an opportunity to be elected to Congress.

That's a really good point that I had forgotten about. Very glad that Palin lost! To me, she set the stage for Trump: ignorant, flamboyant, narcissistic, and loud.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

So... Palin needed about 6k votes, but Begich voters didn't put down Palin's name for over 8k votes. Reasons for such could be:

1) Not caring whether Palin or Peltola wins.
2) Thinking Palin will win anyway.
3) No understanding how the vote works.

If they wisen up and vote smarter in November, it's not inconceivable that Palin can get enough second votes to win.

Are second votes of Palin and Peltola voters counted at all?

You forgot:

4) Despising Sarah Palin.

A lot of Alaskans deeply resent her for abandoning her elected position to enrich herself as a celebrity talking head on Fox News. She was halfway through her term as Governor when she walked off the job. And even when she was here, she stayed home in Wasilla (probably because her husband refused to take care of the kids) and collected the per diem the State gives to employees who are working away from their regular duty station, which in her case was the Governor's mansion in Juneau.

She disappointed a lot of people, moved to Arizona years ago, and only showed a renewed interest in Alaska politics when she saw an opportunity to be elected to Congress.

...and even then, she still nearly won!

I like the coincidence that Palin's career started out by politicizing abortion in a local mayoral race... and she lost to a candidate that concentrated on abortion rights. Hopefully this repeats in November.

That's a really good point that I had forgotten about. Very glad that Palin lost! To me, she set the stage for Trump: ignorant, flamboyant, narcissistic, and loud.

Her VP candidacy wasn't cracking open the Pandora's Box, but it was opening it quite a bit more than it was already opened. The "tea party" movement grew from her candidacy and it just continues to spiral out of control, to the point that in 12 years, the person the GOP had on the ticket tried to overthrow an election.

 

[ZiprHead]

Turns out Sarah Palin can't see congress from her house.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Turns out Sarah Palin can't see congress from her house.

I love how she has that hanging around her neck, despite it was said by Tina Fey. Palin deserves everything bad that happens to her spiteful, gluttonous, and slothful existence.

 

[lpetrich]

I checked on Alaska Division of Elections - Home and I couldn't find any further details. I agree that it would be interesting to have all the votes. One may then collect them into a table of how many of each kind of vote. All three candidates ranked is 3! = 6, two candidates ranked is 3!/1! = 6, one candidate only (bullet voting) is 3!/2! = 3, with a total of 15. Treating write-ins as one candidate gives 4!/1! = 24, 4!/2! = 12, 4!/3! = 4 with a total of 40.

The Condorcet winner? That is something from research into alternate voting systems. Interpret the election as a set of votes for pairs of candidates, then see how each member of each pair does. If one candidate consistently wins this virtual round robin contest, then that candidate is the Condorcet winner. It's possible to have circular preferences, A > B > C > A, and such preferences have no Condorcet winner. One can then use any of several algorithms to disambiguate it.

Instant runoff counting, what was used here, does not necessarily give the Condorcet winner as its winner, even if it usually does. Condorcet winner criterion - electowiki

 

[hurtinbuckaroo]

If they wisen up and vote smarter in November, it's not inconceivable that Palin can get enough second votes to win.

Are second votes of Palin and Peltola voters counted at all?

I think the smarter thing for Republican voters to do would be to just rank Begich first. Second votes don't count unless you are eliminated.

But more of them wanted Palin. Why should they switch their votes to him? Shouldn’t his voters switch to Palin?

 

[Jayjay]

If they wisen up and vote smarter in November, it's not inconceivable that Palin can get enough second votes to win.

Are second votes of Palin and Peltola voters counted at all?

I think the smarter thing for Republican voters to do would be to just rank Begich first. Second votes don't count unless you are eliminated.

I guess the logic there is that more Palin voters put Begich as their second option, than the reverse? That could work. That's why I was wondering how many Palin voters would've put Begich as their second option.