Togo writes:
Before you can test it, you have to have a theory that makes a prediction that is to be tested.
I might amend the statement to say laws and well-established scientific observations since laws don't always get formulated or named even though the regularities have been established.
But that's still something you've made up. You're still making up a new criteria - that science must consist of well-established observations, and regularised laws - to try and cast doubt on the scientific nature of studies within which you disagree. This isn't how science works. It is not based, in any way, on maturity or elapsed time for reflection or regularisation of law. It's making predictions and testing them. That's all it is. The studies you dislike are every bit as much science as mainstream physics is.
You've mis-stated my claim. I didn't say "science." I said a scientific theory. I have stated all along that science is a methodology. It tests theories. But the theory has to be formulated before it can be tested. You have ignored that criticism.
A scientific theory is a combination of laws or well-established scientific observations. The theory that black swans exist is not a scientific theory, and scientists don't go running off trying to find black swans in order to "test" the theory. They bring well-established principles together into a theory which hopefully, but not always, will be testable.
The genetic basis for the neo-Darwinian theory goes back before Dawkins...
I didn't claim otherwise. But you've not addressed the point I did make, which is that extensive modifications of existing theories are commonplace and regular occurances, and occur quite happily without needing to denounce the existing theory as failed or flawed. This means that:
If you didn't claim otherwise, I don't know what you were claiming.
Fine. Tell me what the "modifications" to Darwinian theory are that have moved beyond the principles of natural selection and random mutations? Those are the two defining principles of the neo-Darwinian model. It can, of course, be subject to some minor variations as Gould attempted. But if you start introducing new mechanisms, you are getting into a totally different theory.
a) Discussions of modifications of existing theories don't mean the existing theories are different from any other theory in science
b) There is no basis here for you to try and draw a distinction between the science that produces outcomes you like, and the science that produces outcomes you don't.
OK, so Copernicus "modified" the Ptolemaic theory to put the sun, rather than the earth, at the center of the solar system, but look at what he
retained! His solar system still had planets and the sun and the moon. And these bodies traveled in perfect circles and he still had epicycles. So it wasn't a new theory at all. Just the modification of an old one.
No. If the central claim of the theory is superceded by the evidence, the theory is wrong.
Mutations are random and the vast majority are harmful, but natural selection is not random. It provides the direction of evolution. It punishes harmful mutations. But occasionally beneficial mutations come along and this leads to the evolution of new species. The theory can only get modified within these parameters.
Why? Please state the reason for this unilateral declaration on your part. Again, this is a criterion you have made up.
I haven't made up anything. If a theory fails to account for the data, then it is wrong. You claim that it isn't wrong if it can be modified to fit the data. You have not, however, shown how any of the theories that I have mentioned here have been or can be modified to conform to the observational evidence. Until you do that, your point is irrelevant.
However, I have asserted that these theories do not conform to the evidence, and it is my prerogative to point out what ways they fail to conform. Now if you want to come along and say that inheritability of acquired characteristics is merely a "modification" of the Darwinian theory, I have every right to reject your assertion. However, I would assert that virtually all neo-Darwinians would agree with me. (I should add, however, that this issue is still very much up in the air. The evidence is pretty clear for epigenetic effects, but the full implications are still to be flushed out). I rest my critique of the neo-Darwinian model on the fossil evidence, not on epigenetics.
But Gould did not depart from the natural selection/random mutation paradigm.
If acquired characteristics can be inherited, as epigenetic research suggests, you wouldn't have a Darwinian theory at all. You would have a Lamarkian theory.
Not really. Lamarck suggested that traits are inherited based on experiences in the animal's lifetime. What the research you're citing is suggesting is that the mutation rate may be increased or decreased according to environmental stress. The variation would still be random. Unless we're talking about two different things?
Are you trying to claim that the organism does not "experience" environmental stress? There has been evidence for inheritance for a long time. Babies are born with calluses on their feet, for example. But Lamarck didn't have a mechanism to explain it. Epigenetics could prove to be the mechanism.
Environmental stress would hardly be a "random" factor. Even Darwinists claim that it is the environment that provides the direction of evolution. It is the mutations that are random. But I don't think that epigenetics rests on environmental stress particularly. Eating habits, levels of exercise and other factors may also play a part in what genes get activated and which ones get de-activated during ones lifetime. The key point is that the epigenome that we have developed gets passed on to our children. But the details of this are still unclear. This science is just in its infancy.
There is a researcher in Chicago. It think his name is James Shapiro, who suggests that evolution proceeds through "natural genetic engineering." He thinks self-regulating systems offer a better model for evolutionary speciation than random mutations do. He is decidedly NOT a Darwinist, and his theory probably could not be grafted on to the neo-Darwinian model and any reasonable way. Darwinian evolutionary theory is not be "amended" very significantly although there are many alternatives being proposed.
Again, why not? Why can't Shapiro's ideas be grafted on to what we already know about natural selection from mutation? You keep asserting that these theories are not subject to change, which doesn't match the practice of science.
Why is this so difficult? Obviously, self-regulating systems constitute an entirely different mechanism than what the Darwinians are claiming. And natural genetic engineering is hardly the same thing as random mutations. I don't know much about the details of his proposal, but the role that the environment would have to play in such a model would be very different from natural selection. So what do you want to do, throw out natural selection and claim that it is still Darwinism?
What it has in common with Darwinism is that Shapiro still proposes that intelligent life can arise from unintelligent material processes. So it isn't a variant on intelligent design, but it doesn't use the same mechanisms that Darwinism does. It's a different theory.
Togo said:
Sure it is. The issues discussed in these areas, such as punctuated equilibrium, are no different from the issues discussed in quantum physics, such as quantum tunnelling. These theories are modified all the time, the fact that they are modified in no way suggests that they are somehow particularly contingent or temporary; that's just how science works. The only difference between the big bang and quantum physics is that you have a political beef with one, rather than the other.
Actually, there are three theories of quantum mechanics: the Copenhagen Interpretation, the Many Worlds Theory, and the Ontological theory. There may even be some other off-beat theory or two besides that. Although most scientists more or less accept the Copenhagen Interpretation as the default position, but the others are also used, and we don't hear that the Copenhagen Interpretation is the "right" answer to the question.
Which is a beef is with how people portray science on internet message boards, and nothing to do with the science itself. In both biology and in quantum physics, the theories are expanded and modified in response to new data.
Of course they're modified in response to new data. That is altogether different from a theory that is
falsified on the basis of new data (or even old data in the case of Darwinism).
Again, I have claimed that the three theories that I mentioned have been falsified by the data, and I have stated what that data is, and you have not shown where these theories have been amended to account for the failed predictions.
That isn't the case with Darwinism. We hear almost nothing about alternative theories even though, as I've pointed out, Darwinism is contradicted by the fossil evidence.
Well, you've made that claim, but the evidence you presented on punctuated evolution, doesn't in fact contradict the theory. It contradicts a narrow, inflexible point of view that you are attempting to convince people is the theory, but that's quite different.
Well then, please, enlighten us. What are the
real theories? How have I mis-stated them?
They aren't well-established fact. That was my original point. I was asked to name three theories that lacked evidence and those are the three that I named. I didn't just decide to grab theories out of a hat. I don't dispute the theory of continental drift, for example. These three theories have basically been falsified by the evidence.
No, they haven't. They have changed over time in response to evidence, just like every other theory in the history of science does.
Since you have provided no evidence whatsoever to support this claim that you keep repeating, I will take the opportunity here to state that you are utterly wrong especially with regard to the three theories that I have mentioned.
Which is my original point, in contradiction to your position, that all scientific theories change over time, that what you're citing as 'falsification' is anything but, and that every time we discuss why there should be some clear blue water between the theories you don't like and the rest of science, you end up talking about politicised researchers and how non-scientists present the information, rather than the science itself.
"Science" does not present information. Scientists do. Are some of these politicized? Of course. Others have career interests in keeping the model going. But science education and the media also mis-represent the science. Again, some of this may represent a certain politicization of the process, but some of it is just a tendency to confuse the latest hypothesis with an actual, well-established theory. So there are a lot of factors involved.
The fact is that the three theories that I have cited simply don't work without their central tenets and those tenets have been falsified by observation.
When I was in undergraduate school they still taught that Freud was a "scientist." In economics, they still taught the gold standard (after all, we were on one). They taught that the sun was a giant hydrogen bomb. The steady-state theory was still on a par with the big bang. That was 50 years ago. I'm sure that 50 years from now, students will be learning things that are drastically different from what we are learning now.
Oh sure. I was told to focus on coursework for the first year of my degree and focus on learning the science in the remaining two, because otherwise what I learned in my first year would have changed by the time I took my final exam. The dinosaur skeleton in the foyer of the Natural History Museum Science changes used to fit nicely in the void in the middle of the building, with its neck high and it's tail coiled around its legs. Now its neck stretches forward from the shoulder, and as a result barely fits into the room.
But these changes are normal, swift, and happen in all the sciences. No one declared palaeontology to be dead because dinosaurs didn't look like giraffes any more, and no one is going to declare evolution dead because the fossil record isn't entirely smooth. You'll just have to get used to the idea that the weight of evidence doesn't point the way you want it to. If you have the sophisticated understanding of the science that you claim, then you know what observations and studies support your case. But let's not pretend that the theories you disagree with have some kind of special temporary or contingent status. They're as solid as any other scientific theory, which is to say that it will probably have changed quite a bit 50 years from now.
Well, I suppose we could have a scientific revolution that will throw out all of our current theories because we will look at the world entirely differently in much the same way that we overthrew Greek science in the Renaissance. But barring that, I don't think so. I don't think special relativity will be abandoned. I don't think quantum mechanics will be abandoned.
I don't expect that evolution will be abandoned, but I feel pretty confident that the Darwinian model will be. Of course, we will laugh at the global warming advocates the way we now laugh at those who were predicting another Ice Age. (And, of course, in some cases, they are the same people). And I don't think we will still hold the same big bang theory. I think we will see gravity playing a very different role or we will have a new theory of gravity altogether.