Poll Of Economists - Trump Tax Plan Won't Work

[Cheerful Charlie]

http://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/tax-reform-2

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[h=6]Tuesday, November 21st, 2017 9:47 am[/h] [h=2]Tax Reform[/h] [h=3]Question A: If the US enacts a tax bill similar to those currently moving through the House and Senate — and assuming no other changes in tax or spending policy — US GDP will be substantially higher a decade from now than under the status quo.[/h]---------

Out of 42 economists surveyed, only one agreed. But the GOP will charge ahead anyway.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

Out of 42 economists surveyed, only one agreed. But the GOP will charge ahead anyway.

So, an economist has agreed that the GOP plan will make the GDP substantially higher.

Take that, Trump critics!

 

[Harry Bosch]

http://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/tax-reform-2

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[h=6]Tuesday, November 21st, 2017 9:47 am[/h] [h=2]Tax Reform[/h] [h=3]Question A: If the US enacts a tax bill similar to those currently moving through the House and Senate — and assuming no other changes in tax or spending policy — US GDP will be substantially higher a decade from now than under the status quo.[/h]---------

Out of 42 economists surveyed, only one agreed. But the GOP will charge ahead anyway.

Unfortunately, facts won't deter the republicans.

 

[whichphilosophy]

http://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/tax-reform-2

---------
[h=6]Tuesday, November 21st, 2017 9:47 am[/h] [h=2]Tax Reform[/h] [h=3]Question A: If the US enacts a tax bill similar to those currently moving through the House and Senate — and assuming no other changes in tax or spending policy — US GDP will be substantially higher a decade from now than under the status quo.[/h]---------

Out of 42 economists surveyed, only one agreed. But the GOP will charge ahead anyway.

Unfortunately, facts won't deter the republicans.

Opinion polls measure opinion not facts.

 

[zorq]

Nevermind

 

[Harry Bosch]

http://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/tax-reform-2

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[h=6]Tuesday, November 21st, 2017 9:47 am[/h] [h=2]Tax Reform[/h] [h=3]Question A: If the US enacts a tax bill similar to those currently moving through the House and Senate — and assuming no other changes in tax or spending policy — US GDP will be substantially higher a decade from now than under the status quo.[/h]---------

Out of 42 economists surveyed, only one agreed. But the GOP will charge ahead anyway.

Unfortunately, facts won't deter the republicans.

Opinion polls measure opinion not facts.

Would you say that 41 out of 42 economists might have something important to say regarding economics?

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

Unfortunately, facts won't deter the republicans.

Opinion polls measure opinion not facts.

Would you say that 41 out of 42 economists might have something important to say regarding economics?

Depends. Are they Economists or are they Keynesians?

 

[Ford]

I guess it depends on how you define "work."

Will the GOP tax plan "work" to spur growth in the economy? Probably not, because the economy has already recovered. We're at or near full employment, the housing market has recovered, corporate profits are doing fine, and the stock market is at record highs. Cost of living is low, inflation is low, basically the economy is firing on all cylinders.

The GOP plan is based on a false premise - that the economy is weak. We can argue all day long whether tax cuts can spur a weak economy or lead us out of a recession, but the fact is that the economy isn't weak at all, and the recession is (relatively) a distant memory. We need tax cuts like a person who has recovered from an infection years ago needs another round of antibiotics.

 

[barbos]

Out of 42 economists surveyed, only one agreed. But the GOP will charge ahead anyway.

So, an economist has agreed that the GOP plan will make the GDP substantially higher.

Take that, Trump critics!

Yes, John Barron is a tremendous economist and his hands are big too.

 

[whichphilosophy]

Unfortunately, facts won't deter the republicans.

Opinion polls measure opinion not facts.

Would you say that 41 out of 42 economists might have something important to say regarding economics?

They have important opinions.

 

[Tigers!]

George Bernard Shaw reportedly crafted the following lament:

If all the economists were laid end to end, they would not reach a conclusion.

 

[LordKiran]

George Bernard Shaw reportedly crafted the following lament:

If all the economists were laid end to end, they would not reach a conclusion.

They don't need to reach absolute consensus. General consensus is enough.

 

[Philos]

Folks,

So, instead of discussing Trump's tax plan we are discussing whether economists know anything about economics.

Game, set and match to Trump.

A.

 

[whichphilosophy]

George Bernard Shaw reportedly crafted the following lament:

If all the economists were laid end to end, they would not reach a conclusion.

For every 2 economists there are 3 opinions.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

There is a difference between economists who do economics, and economists who do ideology. There are a lot of economists who are notable for being wrong for decades now about everything, Laffer, Moore, Kudlow and others. Track record counts when it comes to economists. When Bush announced his tax cuts, 10 Nobel laureates (plus 400 other notable economists) in the field of economics signed a letter warning that the tax cuts would not achieve their stated goals and would create massive deficits. They were right.

So choose your economists carefully.

 

[fromderinside]

Unfortunately, facts won't deter the republicans.

Opinion polls measure opinion not facts.

Would you say that 41 out of 42 economists might have something important to say regarding economics?

Let me consult my twitter statistics. Nope.

 

[laughing dog]

There is a difference between economists who do economics, and economists who do ideology. There are a lot of economists who are notable for being wrong for decades now about everything, Laffer, Moore, Kudlow and others. Track record counts when it comes to economists. When Bush announced his tax cuts, 10 Nobel laureates (plus 400 other notable economists) in the field of economics signed a letter warning that the tax cuts would not achieve their stated goals and would create massive deficits. They were right.

So choose your economists carefully.

Exactly. Right now, James C Miller III (the former director of OMB from 1985-88) and Douglas Holz-Eakin (former head of the CBO, and economic advisor for John McCain's Presidential campaign) are asking for signatures from economists in support of the Republican tax plan. The letter includes the following sentence
"The enactment of a comprehensive overhaul – complete with a lower corporate tax rate – will ignite our economy with levels of growth not seen in generations. " To say the least, that claim is over the top.

Which is a shame, because Douglas Holtz-Eakin made a deserved reputation as a good economist with his careful empirical work. But since he became involved in politics, he has ruined that reputation (at least in my view).

 

[whollygoats]

Yeah, Jason. Keynesians are far more reliable than just ordinary Economists.

So I could see why you might need Depends.

 

[whollygoats]

There is a difference between economists who do economics, and economists who do ideology. There are a lot of economists who are notable for being wrong for decades now about everything, Laffer, Moore, Kudlow and others. Track record counts when it comes to economists. When Bush announced his tax cuts, 10 Nobel laureates (plus 400 other notable economists) in the field of economics signed a letter warning that the tax cuts would not achieve their stated goals and would create massive deficits. They were right.

So choose your economists carefully.

Ramen!

There is quite a wide spectrum of 'economic theory' upon which politicians and other demogogues might draw upon for their propaganda fodder. I have my favorites, as I expect most here do. Has everybody chosen up? Need we identify which school we tend to draw upon and, to do so, that we need to attempt an identification of the spectrum?

 

[whollygoats]

George Bernard Shaw reportedly crafted the following lament:

If all the economists were laid end to end, they would not reach a conclusion.

For every 2 economists there are 3 opinions.

That's restrained. I'd at least double the possible opinions. Policy-makers still tend seek out the one-handed economists.