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Polls And Surveys - Trump Will Lose In 2020

There is still a lot of time between now and the actual election for the Democrats to screw this up and/or for Trump to pull this in out.

The possibilities are endless...

Most probable cause for a Trump victory?

1) All the Democrats are talking about how all the Democratic Candidates are terrible for the Country... just take any 30 second clip from the debates as an example... the Republicans certainly will.
2) All of the Republicans are talking about how PERFECT the ONE chosen (and incumbent) candidate for President is.

Given only this, who in their right minds would vote for anyone but Trump, who has complete and total consensus, whereas any other candidate has nothing but contention amongst their own people.

Yeah - at this time in 2015 remember what a unified bunch those 17 or so Republican candidates were? None of them ever said anything bad about their eventual choice, or raised the observation that their choice was an emotional two year old and certifiable loon ... oh, wait - yes they did. But they all shut up about that once they had to fall in line... we will see if the Dems' lack of lemminghood does them in again.
 
But I'll also add that in addition to 2016, there has never existed any correlation between divisive or contentious primaries within a party and that party losing the general election. There is no pattern.
 
By now it is obvious the Democratic primaries are between three candidates, Biden, Sanders and Warren. All the rest are in the low single digits and have no chance. I suspect few people are paying much attention to the lesser candidates. I do not see the loud bellowings that we had with 2016 Trump. "Low Energy Bush", "Lying Ted Cruz" etc among the Democrats.
 
By now it is obvious the Democratic primaries are between three candidates, Biden, Sanders and Warren.

THIS is why we may lose. Biden is too geriatric to go the distance. He wasn't even on his game in 2008 and almost sunk Obama. Sanders hasn't a chance in hell against Trump. He'll be a fucking big mac to Trump in any debate and the opposition onslaught against him will be easy and massive. Warren is forever "Pocahontas" and easily bullied, which will only play to Trump's strengths. She's also not--at this point anyway--presidential, which will hurt her significantly among the very group that should support her the most (women). All of the same misogyny that Hillary faced much better would be slung Warren's way and any halfway competent VP she picks will dwarf her, forcing her to pick someone milquetoastie that will only underscore her own ineptitude, or, worse, someone "rainbow" (like Buttiegieg) which will sink her even faster as a ready made target for attack.

Unless Biden somehow regains his twenty years ago self, that 25% insurmountable gap is looking frighteningly surmountable.
 
By now it is obvious the Democratic primaries are between three candidates, Biden, Sanders and Warren.

THIS is why we may lose. Biden is too geriatric to go the distance. He wasn't even on his game in 2008 and almost sunk Obama. Sanders hasn't a chance in hell against Trump. He'll be a fucking big mac to Trump in any debate and the opposition onslaught against him will be easy and massive. Warren is forever "Pocahontas" and easily bullied, which will only play to Trump's strengths. She's also not--at this point anyway--presidential, which will hurt her significantly among the very group that should support her the most (women). All of the same misogyny that Hillary faced much better would be slung Warren's way and any halfway competent VP she picks will dwarf her, forcing her to pick someone milquetoastie that will only underscore her own ineptitude, or, worse, someone "rainbow" (like Buttiegieg) which will sink her even faster as a ready made target for attack.

Unless Biden somehow regains his twenty years ago self, that 25% insurmountable gap is looking frighteningly surmountable.

Yup.. this does not help your team at all. In addition to the help the Dems will ignorantly supply, that I mentioned, this is why Trump will win a second term.
It's good that the Dems are taking two approaches, try to beat him in an election, or if that fails, have impeachment ready... but neither will work. Did you see how embarrassing it was for them last night in front of Trump's messenger?
You guys really think the pussies with legs that call themselves democrats are going to win anything.. at all.. ever again? Time to wake the fuck up, folks.
 
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-ta...ns-in-views-of-governments-role-and-of-trump/

Pew Research

Currently, 47% of men say they approve of how Trump is handling his job as president, with an equal share saying they disapprove (47%). By contrast, 32% of women say they approve of how Trump is handling his job as president; 63% say they disapprove.

Since women voters outnumber male voters, this looks like a problem for the orange fool. Of course it all is a matter of turn out. But I don't see women voters sitting 2020 out. The full scale attack of the GOP on women's health issues, abortion, birth control, defunding planned parenthood, attacking Obamacare and more will almost surely galvanize unhappy women voters.
Ultimately, it matters more state wise, WI, MI, PA. It is hopeful though. Trump likely can't win an election if he losing more than 60% of the women vote. Of course, W was flirting with 50% and beat Kerry. And clearly conservatives are really good at holding their noses in the polls.

Bonespurs just barely squeaked by in Michigan. A lot of union autoworkers voted for him. They now feel very betrayed by him. He won't take michigan this time.

This is why auto workers feel betrayed.

70376530_2677851555570984_5675765119494127616_n.png
 
By now it is obvious the Democratic primaries are between three candidates, Biden, Sanders and Warren.

THIS is why we may lose. Biden is too geriatric to go the distance. He wasn't even on his game in 2008 and almost sunk Obama. Sanders hasn't a chance in hell against Trump. He'll be a fucking big mac to Trump in any debate and the opposition onslaught against him will be easy and massive. Warren is forever "Pocahontas" and easily bullied, which will only play to Trump's strengths. She's also not--at this point anyway--presidential, which will hurt her significantly among the very group that should support her the most (women). All of the same misogyny that Hillary faced much better would be slung Warren's way and any halfway competent VP she picks will dwarf her, forcing her to pick someone milquetoastie that will only underscore her own ineptitude, or, worse, someone "rainbow" (like Buttiegieg) which will sink her even faster as a ready made target for attack.

Unless Biden somehow regains his twenty years ago self, that 25% insurmountable gap is looking frighteningly surmountable.


National polls show any of the top three Democrats beating Trump.

Real Clear Politics
Sanders +7%
Warren +5.2%
Biden +11.5%

Pocahantas? Orange rapist! Orange liar! Let him try that! The push back will be horrific.
 
By now it is obvious the Democratic primaries are between three candidates, Biden, Sanders and Warren.

THIS is why we may lose. Biden is too geriatric to go the distance. He wasn't even on his game in 2008 and almost sunk Obama. Sanders hasn't a chance in hell against Trump. He'll be a fucking big mac to Trump in any debate and the opposition onslaught against him will be easy and massive. Warren is forever "Pocahontas" and easily bullied, which will only play to Trump's strengths. She's also not--at this point anyway--presidential, which will hurt her significantly among the very group that should support her the most (women). All of the same misogyny that Hillary faced much better would be slung Warren's way and any halfway competent VP she picks will dwarf her, forcing her to pick someone milquetoastie that will only underscore her own ineptitude, or, worse, someone "rainbow" (like Buttiegieg) which will sink her even faster as a ready made target for attack.

Unless Biden somehow regains his twenty years ago self, that 25% insurmountable gap is looking frighteningly surmountable.


National polls show any of the top three Democrats beating Trump.

Real Clear Politics
Sanders +7%
Warren +5.2%
Biden +11.5%

Pocahantas? Orange rapist! Orange liar! Let him try that! The push back will be horrific.

Warren has lots of experience handling children. I think she can handle Bonespurs.
 
National polls show any of the top three Democrats beating Trump.

Real Clear Politics
Sanders +7%
Warren +5.2%
Biden +11.5%

Pocahantas? Orange rapist! Orange liar! Let him try that! The push back will be horrific.

Warren has lots of experience handling children. I think she can handle Bonespurs.

The fact that she thought actually getting a DNA test was a good response to the accusation that she wasn't Native American indicates she doesn't know how to handle him. When Trump or his supporters disagree with you, they aren't disagreeing about the facts of the matter. They are expressing an emotion about something that gives them a sense of power to do so. If it isn't Pocahontas, it's anything else; it doesn't matter the topic. I've said this before, but politics is about emotional energy and feeling like you're on the right side of something big, not about having facts and logic to back up your assertions. Anybody who insists otherwise is just one of those people who derives emotional energy from having facts and logic--and they are perhaps even more emotionally driven than those who acknowledge it.

Secondly, the idea that debates decide the winner of elections, and that of all people Donald Trump is some formidable debate opponent, is more fantastical wish-thinking from the West Wing contingent who thinks "if we could only refute all of his points, everyone would have no choice but to vote against him." It's a delusion that has never really been supported by election results compared to debate performances.

The person to beat Trump is the one who can build the largest base of support among the populations that everyone in 2016 would not shut up about being the future of our party: young people, minorities, first-time voters, women, the working poor, blue-collar union members, farmers, and LGBTQIA people. Like it or not, that's the Democratic voter of this century going forward. They care about fighting climate change, having health care, having steady employment, economic mobility, not being in debt from their education, having reproductive freedom, and not being gunned down in a war or in a shopping mall. They are upset about the gender pay gap, the wealth inequality gap, the corporate takeover of all media, and the fact that they are living more precariously than their parents did at their age. The candidate who taps into this bloc and galvanizes them out of their apathy cannot be another run-of-the-mill centrist who takes donations from the same forces that are fucking us all over while promising to hold them accountable. It can't be someone running on the politics of civility, moderation, reaching across the aisle, compromising with the far right, or watering down legislation to appeal to insurance or pharma companies. These voters are jaded; they can see right through that, and will stay home if they smell it, because they know their vote won't change anything even if they voted.
 
By now it is obvious the Democratic primaries are between three candidates, Biden, Sanders and Warren.

THIS is why we may lose. Biden is too geriatric to go the distance. He wasn't even on his game in 2008 and almost sunk Obama. Sanders hasn't a chance in hell against Trump. He'll be a fucking big mac to Trump in any debate and the opposition onslaught against him will be easy and massive. Warren is forever "Pocahontas" and easily bullied, which will only play to Trump's strengths. She's also not--at this point anyway--presidential, which will hurt her significantly among the very group that should support her the most (women). All of the same misogyny that Hillary faced much better would be slung Warren's way and any halfway competent VP she picks will dwarf her, forcing her to pick someone milquetoastie that will only underscore her own ineptitude, or, worse, someone "rainbow" (like Buttiegieg) which will sink her even faster as a ready made target for attack.

Unless Biden somehow regains his twenty years ago self, that 25% insurmountable gap is looking frighteningly surmountable.


National polls show any of the top three Democrats beating Trump.

Real Clear Politics
Sanders +7%
Warren +5.2%
Biden +11.5%

Pocahantas? Orange rapist! Orange liar! Let him try that! The push back will be horrific.

oh for fucks sake, have you forgotten the opium you were fed in 2016 called "polls" that helped lose you key states out of the false impression of it just not mattering?

Dems never learn.. seem incapable of appealing to more than their small group of sophmoronic college classmates, and will be pretty much extinct by 2024.
 
National polls show any of the top three Democrats beating Trump.

Real Clear Politics
Sanders +7%
Warren +5.2%
Biden +11.5%

Pocahantas? Orange rapist! Orange liar! Let him try that! The push back will be horrific.

Warren has lots of experience handling children. I think she can handle Bonespurs.

Think so, huh? maybe? hopefully? pray on it? If you "think" so, then you are wrong. You want less people to vote for Trump, and the word "think" comes to mind... There's your problem right there.
 
National polls show any of the top three Democrats beating Trump.

Real Clear Politics
Sanders +7%
Warren +5.2%
Biden +11.5%

Pocahantas? Orange rapist! Orange liar! Let him try that! The push back will be horrific.

Warren has lots of experience handling children. I think she can handle Bonespurs.

Think so, huh? maybe? hopefully? pray on it? If you "think" so, then you are wrong. You want less people to vote for Trump, and the word "think" comes to mind... There's your problem right there.

Dems don't need less people to vote for Cheato. It would be futile to spend energy on the stupidest 38% of the electorate anyhow - they only need to turn out their own ranks and they'll win, barring a new and greatly improved cheating scheme by Donny and Vlad.
 
Think so, huh? maybe? hopefully? pray on it? If you "think" so, then you are wrong. You want less people to vote for Trump, and the word "think" comes to mind... There's your problem right there.

Dems don't need less people to vote for Cheato. It would be futile to spend energy on the stupidest 38% of the electorate anyhow - they only need to turn out their own ranks and they'll win, barring a new and greatly improved cheating scheme by Donny and Vlad.

THIS. People who don't like Trump are in the majority, all we need to do is give them someone they DO like, not just someone they can tolerate.
 
Think so, huh? maybe? hopefully? pray on it? If you "think" so, then you are wrong. You want less people to vote for Trump, and the word "think" comes to mind... There's your problem right there.

Dems don't need less people to vote for Cheato. It would be futile to spend energy on the stupidest 38% of the electorate anyhow - they only need to turn out their own ranks and they'll win, barring a new and greatly improved cheating scheme by Donny and Vlad.

THIS. People who don't like Trump are in the majority, all we need to do is give them someone they DO like, not just someone they can tolerate.

disagree... The objective should be to turn out and vote not-trump. Introducing the idea that the candidate should be "tolerable" or "good enough" is exactly the problem. Of the 60% that you need, half of them are programmed to compete on wokeness and will write in the hippy bitch, vote independent, or refuse to show up on their fragile indefensible sense. If it's not Liz, she's not showing up... if it ain't Bernie, then I'll show them by not showing up
That is what is going to happen, and it is all the Dems doing... The Reps will just exploit the opportunities handed to them.

the correct approach would have been 1 candidate whose platform was "I am a normal human being". and "My plans are great. The greatest. Better than anyone who never figured out how to be president".

But you failed on that and it will be Trump 2020.
 
THIS. People who don't like Trump are in the majority, all we need to do is give them someone they DO like, not just someone they can tolerate.

disagree... The objective should be to turn out and vote not-trump. Introducing the idea that the candidate should be "tolerable" or "good enough" is exactly the problem.

That's what I just said.
 
National polls show any of the top three Democrats beating Trump.

Real Clear Politics
Sanders +7%
Warren +5.2%
Biden +11.5%

Pocahantas? Orange rapist! Orange liar! Let him try that! The push back will be horrific.

oh for fucks sake, have you forgotten the opium you were fed in 2016 called "polls" that helped lose you key states out of the false impression of it just not mattering?

Dems never learn.. seem incapable of appealing to more than their small group of sophmoronic college classmates, and will be pretty much extinct by 2024.


This is not 2016. Trump won by flipping three states with only 77k votes. That will not happen again.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-ta...ns-in-views-of-governments-role-and-of-trump/

Only 31% of women support Trump. Trump now has a track record. And it is not good. Lack of enthusiasm may have doomed Clinton, but lack of enthusiasm for Trump is going to be deadly Trump has 16 months to turn things around, and I don't see him becoming palatable to the newly energized women voters. A lot of pollsters and analysts in 2018 were still arguing if it was possible for the Democrats to actually win the 23 seats needed to control the House of Representitives.

The back lash gave us a blue wave. And the younger generation of voters actually turned out at the polls. I don't expect them to sit 2020 out and they are not Trump friendly.

The only 2 big questions are, who will the Democarts finally elect in the primaries, and can the Democrats take the Senate? Doable, but hard.
 
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