Putin's Real Long Game

[rousseau]

This article by politico is a good read. It discusses the game that Russia is playing. I'd summarize but there's a lot there.

 

[Will Wiley]

This article by politico is a good read. It discusses the game that Russia is playing. I'd summarize but there's a lot there.

From the article.

the big war, being waged by Russia against all of us,

Russia is waging war against "all of us"? I see.

Even this week, as Barack Obama tries to confront Russia’s open and unprecedented interference in our political process

If only there was some evidence to back that up though.

What both administrations fail to realize is that the West is already at war, whether it wants to be or not. It may not be a war we recognize, but it is a war. This war seeks, at home and abroad, to erode our values, our democracy, and our institutional strength; to dilute our ability to sort fact from fiction, or moral right from wrong; and to convince us to make decisions against our own best interests.

Right..Putin is trying to erode our ability to sort moral right from wrong...uh huh.

Second, it’s all one war machine. Military, technological, information, diplomatic, economic, cultural, criminal, and other tools are all controlled by the state and deployed toward one set of strategic objectives.

Um..there has only been one real war machine wreaking carnage throughout the globe in recent history, and it aint Russia


I'm curious, just what made this a good read in your eyes?

 

[rousseau]

snip

Didn't really think to put it in the context of American foreign policy, I just found the analysis of Russia's long-term strategy interesting.

 

[Will Wiley]

snip

Didn't really think to put it in the context of American foreign policy, I just found the analysis of Russia's long-term strategy interesting.

I think the article is right in that Russia's goals can be found very plainly in speeches etc, but I don't see that the author shows any evidence they read any recent speeches or policy announcements from Russia.

From the article.

When it’s us against them, they were, and are, never going to be the winner. But when it's “all against all” — a “multipolar” world with “multi-vector” policy, a state of shifting alliances and permanent instability — Russia, with a centrally controlled, tiny command structure unaccountable for its actions in any way, still has a chance for a seat at the table.

This is just paranoia. The same paranoia that has driven the US's failed foreign policy, and the neglect of it's citizens

 

[Jolly_Penguin]

I find the split in the USA on this fascinating. It used to be the conservatives who feared Russia and Communism during McCarthy, right? Now it is liberals who fear Russia and conservatives who don't? Seems like pretty good evidence to me that US politics is dominated by tribalism more than by ideology or political leaning to liberal or conservative, etc.

 

[Horatio Parker]

This article by politico is a good read. It discusses the game that Russia is playing. I'd summarize but there's a lot there.

Makes sense to me. I find the whole western leftie Putin is ok thing weird.

Geopolitics seems to me like a street gang or wolf pack. Kinder and gentler is perceived as weakness.

 

[Rhea]

I find the split in the USA on this fascinating. It used to be the conservatives who feared Russia and Communism during McCarthy, right? Now it is liberals who fear Russia and conservatives who don't? Seems like pretty good evidence to me that US politics is dominated by tribalism more than by ideology or political leaning to liberal or conservative, etc.

Or,

In the 1950s "Russia," (USSR) stood for communism which the Republicans hate.
Today, Russia stands for unregulated capitalist greed and damn the environment and the poor, which the Progressives hate.

So it's identical to ideological discussions.

 

[barbos]

Putin's real plan is to make America Great again, obviously

 

[barbos]

He/She started with

A little over a year ago, on a pleasant late fall evening, I was sitting on my front porch with a friend best described as a Ukrainian freedom fighter

Really?
And then continued with

Following the 1999 Moscow apartment bombings that the FSB almost certainly planned,

 

[Will Wiley]

The more I read that article the more ridiculous it is. Is it a parody??

Trump should set the unpredictable course and become the champion against the most toxic, ambitious regime of the modern world. Rebuilding American power — based on the values of liberal democracy — is the only escape from Putin’s corrosive vision of a world at permanent war.

So it is Putin who has a vision of a world permanently at war?? It is America however which has been pretty much permanently involved in wars since the 1940's

 

[Will Wiley]

He/She started with

Really?
And then continued with

Following the 1999 Moscow apartment bombings that the FSB almost certainly planned,

The worrying thing is that it is people like Molly who seem to steer US policy, and the policy of other governments.

Molly K. McKew (@MollyMcKew) advises governments and political parties on foreign policy and strategic communications. She was an adviser to Georgian President Saakashvili’s government from 2009-2013, and to former Moldovan Prime Minister Filat in 2014-2015.

The truth is that fighting a new Cold War would be in America’s interest.

 

[skepticalbip]

Cold war mentality dies hard. Too many refuse to notice that the cold war ended something like twenty-five years ago... and the West won decisively. The Soviet Union collapsed. Russia has been struggling to recover a sense of order and economic stability ever since. It has done a fair job but its economy is still not comparable Germany's economy and nothing compared to the economy of the EU.

The current hysteria over Russia is unfounded. China, Iran, or North Korea are much, much more likely to be of any problem for The U.S. or E.U. in the near future. Today's major problem for the West is the continuing aggressive actions of the Islamic State, not Russia.

The only reason that Russia would be a concern is if they are continually provoked to the point that they felt threatened and reacted out of fear of being attacked.

 

[barbos]

Cold war mentality dies hard. Too many refuse to notice that the cold war ended something like twenty-five years ago... and the West won decisively. The Soviet Union collapsed. Russia has been struggling to recover a sense of order and economic stability ever since. It has done a fair job but its economy is still not comparable Germany's economy and nothing compared to the economy of the EU.

True, I think there are a lot of (usually older) people both in US and Russia who have nostalgia about these old days. McCain comes to mind as a clinical case of such disorder. There are similar people in Russia but they are usually less public.

The current hysteria over Russia is unfounded. China, Iran, or North Korea are much, much more likely to be of any problem for The U.S. or E.U. in the future. Today's major problem for the West is the continuing aggressive actions of the Islamic State, not Russia.

Why does US have to designate and rank its enemies? There is a little bit of self-fulfilling prophecy in that I think.

 

[Axulus]

Cold war mentality dies hard. Too many refuse to notice that the cold war ended something like twenty-five years ago... and the West won decisively. The Soviet Union collapsed. Russia has been struggling to recover a sense of order and economic stability ever since. It has done a fair job but its economy is still not comparable Germany's economy and nothing compared to the economy of the EU.

The current hysteria over Russia is unfounded. China, Iran, or North Korea are much, much more likely to be of any problem for The U.S. or E.U. in the near future. Today's major problem for the West is the continuing aggressive actions of the Islamic State, not Russia.

The only reason that Russia would be a concern is if they are continually provoked to the point that they felt threatened and reacted out of fear of being attacked.

There is only one country that has expanded its borders in recent years against the wishes of the country who lost territory and against all treaties signed. It ain't China, Iran, North Korea, or the United States.

To not understand the kind of instability that brings and fear to our allies in the area is to be willfully blind.

 

[barbos]

Cold war mentality dies hard. Too many refuse to notice that the cold war ended something like twenty-five years ago... and the West won decisively. The Soviet Union collapsed. Russia has been struggling to recover a sense of order and economic stability ever since. It has done a fair job but its economy is still not comparable Germany's economy and nothing compared to the economy of the EU.

The current hysteria over Russia is unfounded. China, Iran, or North Korea are much, much more likely to be of any problem for The U.S. or E.U. in the near future. Today's major problem for the West is the continuing aggressive actions of the Islamic State, not Russia.

The only reason that Russia would be a concern is if they are continually provoked to the point that they felt threatened and reacted out of fear of being attacked.

There is only one country that has expanded its borders in recent years against the wishes of the country who lost territory and against all treaties signed. It ain't China, Iran, North Korea, or the United States.

To not understand the kind of instability that brings and fear to our allies in the area is to be willfully blind.

You mean EU/NATO? yeah, they did expand breaking all the treaties.

 

[Will Wiley]

Cold war mentality dies hard. Too many refuse to notice that the cold war ended something like twenty-five years ago... and the West won decisively. The Soviet Union collapsed. Russia has been struggling to recover a sense of order and economic stability ever since. It has done a fair job but its economy is still not comparable Germany's economy and nothing compared to the economy of the EU.

The current hysteria over Russia is unfounded. China, Iran, or North Korea are much, much more likely to be of any problem for The U.S. or E.U. in the near future. Today's major problem for the West is the continuing aggressive actions of the Islamic State, not Russia.

The only reason that Russia would be a concern is if they are continually provoked to the point that they felt threatened and reacted out of fear of being attacked.

There is only one country that has expanded its borders in recent years against the wishes of the country who lost territory and against all treaties signed. It ain't China, Iran, North Korea, or the United States.
To not understand the kind of instability that brings and fear to our allies in the area is to be willfully blind.

Most people in Crimea were Russian or people disposed to Russia. They overwhelmingly voted to go with Russia.

One Year After Russia Annexed Crimea, Locals Prefer Moscow To Kiev

Well afterwards they continued to favour Russia.


Of course with US backed Nazis murdering people it's especially easy to understand.

Korsun massacre anniversary - what really pushed Crimea away from Ukraine

 

[zorq]

Lets talk about this popularity argument.

Before the Annexation, any individual Crimean residents who prefered to live in Russia had the completely legal and acceptable option of selling their real estate and moving ( back) to Russia. But what about the Tatars and other residents of Crimea who prefered and still prefer Ukraine? I guess they get shafted. Much like their Tatar ancestors got shafted by the USSR when all of them were evicted from the region and nearly half of them died in that Soviet version of the trail of tears and ethnic cleansing.

Really, now. Why do you think there are so many Russians and so few "minority" citizens in Crimea to vote against Russian Annexation? Its because the Soviet Russian leadership exported and executed all of them in the previous generations and sent in their own settlers to replace them. Given this historical context, any argument referencing the "popularity" of Russia among the current crimean residents loses any appeal to democratic justice.

Said in another way: You can't commit genocide on your oponents and then claim that your behavior is justified because the only people who remain support you.

Russia stole the land by force and broke its treaties doing so.

 

[barbos]

Lets talk about this popularity argument.

Before the Annexation, any individual Crimean residents who prefered to live in Russia had the completely legal and acceptable option of selling their real estate and moving ( back) to Russia.

What do you mean by "back" here? They were born there and for many "there" was legally Russia when they were born "there".

But what about the Tatars and other residents of Crimea who prefered and still prefer Ukraine?

According to your logic they can sell their real estate and move (back) to Ukraine. Some did.

I guess they get shafted. Much like their Tatar ancestors got shafted by the USSR when all of them were evicted from the region and nearly half of them died in that Soviet version of the trail of tears and ethnic cleansing.

At least there was an actual kinda justification for that, unlike japanese in US.

Really, now. Why do you think there are so many Russians and so few "minority" citizens in Crimea to vote against Russian Annexation? Its because the Soviet Russian leadership exported and executed all of them in the previous generations and sent in their own settlers to replace them. Given this historical context, any argument referencing the "popularity" of Russia among the current crimean residents loses any appeal to democratic justice.

I can tell you why, Because they knew better what was going to happen had they decided to stay in Ukraine.

Said in another way: You can't commit genocide on your oponents and then claim that your behavior is justified because the only people who remain support you.

What genocide?

Russia stole the land by force and broke its treaties doing so.

Yes, Russia stole it ..... from Turkey

 

[TV and credit cards]

Most people in Crimea were Russian or people disposed to Russia. They overwhelmingly voted to go with Russia.

One Year After Russia Annexed Crimea, Locals Prefer Moscow To Kiev

Well afterwards they continued to favour Russia.

Well shoot. I'm moving to the west coast. After about three years of Trump, I'm sure WA, OR, and CA will be ready to be annexed by Canada.
And I like how you equate "one year after" to "well afterwards".

Of course with US backed Nazis murdering people it's especially easy to understand.

Korsun massacre anniversary - what really pushed Crimea away from Ukraine

Why even bother reading the story. Simply scan the various article titles and trailers.


We have to start with knowing what the truth is. As I stated in Axulus' Back to the basics thread, until we clean up what is passed for news, until we separate news from commentary, we swim in Putin's murky waters.

One point in the op article is indisputable, Putin's relevancy depends upon breaking US and NATO down. Though a wave of nationalism is sweeping the western world, Europeans know they need each other and the US for security and they will work to this end. They will not let NATO fall apart. They will pay their dues and Trump will have to respond in kind. Congress will make sure of it.

 

[barbos]

Well shoot. I'm moving to the west coast. After about three years of Trump, I'm sure WA, OR, and CA will be ready to be annexed by Canada.
And I like how you equate "one year after" to "well afterwards".

Crimea have been under russian control for longer than Canada existed.

Of course with US backed Nazis murdering people it's especially easy to understand.

Korsun massacre anniversary - what really pushed Crimea away from Ukraine

Why even bother reading the story. Simply scan the various article titles and trailers.


We have to start with knowing what the truth is. As I stated in Axulus' Back to the basics thread, until we clean up what is passed for news, until we separate news from commentary, we swim in Putin's murky waters.

One point in the op article is indisputable, Putin's relevancy depends upon breaking US and NATO down. Though a wave of nationalism is sweeping the western world, Europeans know they need each other and the US for security and they will work to this end. They will not let NATO fall apart. They will pay their dues and Trump will have to respond in kind. Congress will make sure of it.

OK, I can give you NATO, Putin is not a big fan of NATO. I suspect because NATO have shown its desire to expand and harass Russia. But US? even though US is really behind NATO I doubt Putin plans to break up US.