Putin's Real Long Game

[TV and credit cards]

Crimea have been under russian control for longer than Canada existed.

Of course with US backed Nazis murdering people it's especially easy to understand.

Korsun massacre anniversary - what really pushed Crimea away from Ukraine

Why even bother reading the story. Simply scan the various article titles and trailers.


We have to start with knowing what the truth is. As I stated in Axulus' Back to the basics thread, until we clean up what is passed for news, until we separate news from commentary, we swim in Putin's murky waters.

One point in the op article is indisputable, Putin's relevancy depends upon breaking US and NATO down. Though a wave of nationalism is sweeping the western world, Europeans know they need each other and the US for security and they will work to this end. They will not let NATO fall apart. They will pay their dues and Trump will have to respond in kind. Congress will make sure of it.

OK, I can give you NATO, Putin is not a big fan of NATO. I suspect because NATO have shown its desire to expand and harass Russia. But US? even though US is really behind NATO I doubt Putin plans to break up US.

Poor wording on my part. I should have written, Putin's relevancy depends upon the US and NATO breaking down. Putin can only respond and take advantage where and when the situation presents itself.

 

[Jayjay]

Crimea have been under russian control for longer than Canada existed.

If that justifies Russian annexation of Crimea, when is Putin going to give Königsberg back to Germany?

Fact is that land changes ownership sometimes. Russia should have just accepted that Crimea is now part of Ukraine, just like Kaliningrad, Karelia, Penchengsky and other places Russia has annexed over the years are now Russian.

 

[barbos]

Crimea have been under russian control for longer than Canada existed.

If that justifies Russian annexation of Crimea, when is Putin going to give Königsberg back to Germany?

I did not say it justifies it.

Fact is that land changes ownership sometimes.

And it did once again.

Russia should have just accepted that Crimea is now part of Ukraine, just like Kaliningrad, Karelia, Penchengsky and other places Russia has annexed over the years are now Russian.

Ukraine should just accept that Crimea is part of Russia again. The fact is, Crimea was stolen from Russia, especialy Sevastopol who was not even part of Ukraine legally.

 

[Harry Bosch]

If that justifies Russian annexation of Crimea, when is Putin going to give Königsberg back to Germany?

I did not say it justifies it.

Fact is that land changes ownership sometimes.

And it did once again.

Russia should have just accepted that Crimea is now part of Ukraine, just like Kaliningrad, Karelia, Penchengsky and other places Russia has annexed over the years are now Russian.

Ukraine should just accept that Crimea is part of Russia again. The fact is, Crimea was stolen from Russia, especialy Sevastopol who was not even part of Ukraine legally.

Yea, Crimea is gone. I think that the real question is does Putin plan additional land grabs?

 

[barbos]

I did not say it justifies it.

Fact is that land changes ownership sometimes.

And it did once again.

Russia should have just accepted that Crimea is now part of Ukraine, just like Kaliningrad, Karelia, Penchengsky and other places Russia has annexed over the years are now Russian.

Ukraine should just accept that Crimea is part of Russia again. The fact is, Crimea was stolen from Russia, especialy Sevastopol who was not even part of Ukraine legally.

Yea, Crimea is gone. I think that the real question is does Putin plan additional land grabs?

According to Khorkovsky there are no such plans. Truth is, people who know the history including the ones who oppose Putin understand that there was simply no way to avoid what happened. Once coup in Kiev happened Crimea was gone.
Most of the normal ukrainians and rusians understands that. People in the west/US are not being told the truth. Yes, the referendum was strictly speaking according to Ukrainian constitution illegal, but so was the coup and so was the slow "grab" which Kiev perpetrated on Crimea in 1992 after USSR dissolved. Ukraine got a lot of land which should have been returned to Russia at that time and the only reason it did not happen was because Russia was in much worse shape economically and politically than Ukraine at the time.

As I said, Khodorkovsky who is the most prominent opponent of Putin kinda agrees with Putin. Russia is not interested in invading anybody.

 

[Axulus]

There is only one country that has expanded its borders in recent years against the wishes of the country who lost territory and against all treaties signed. It ain't China, Iran, North Korea, or the United States.

To not understand the kind of instability that brings and fear to our allies in the area is to be willfully blind.

You mean EU/NATO? yeah, they did expand breaking all the treaties.

There was no treaty that said certain countries were not allowed to join NATO. If I am mistaken, please cite it.

Ukraine wasn't part of NATO and they lost territory because of it. The kind of shit Russia pulled can lead to major wars with lots of deaths. The only reason they got away with it is because Ukraine's military is too weak to take on Russia. Might makes right, in other words.

- - - Updated - - -

I did not say it justifies it.

Fact is that land changes ownership sometimes.

And it did once again.

Russia should have just accepted that Crimea is now part of Ukraine, just like Kaliningrad, Karelia, Penchengsky and other places Russia has annexed over the years are now Russian.

Ukraine should just accept that Crimea is part of Russia again. The fact is, Crimea was stolen from Russia, especialy Sevastopol who was not even part of Ukraine legally.

Yea, Crimea is gone. I think that the real question is does Putin plan additional land grabs?

Our Eastern European allies, those that have the biggest stake in the matter, are very worried that the risk is quite high. If not land grabs, at least sending in troops to overthrow governments not sufficiently kowtowing to Russia.

- - - Updated - - -

According to Khorkovsky there are no such plans. Truth is, people who know the history including the ones who oppose Putin understand that there was simply no way to avoid what happened. Once coup in Kiev happened Crimea was gone.
Most of the normal ukrainians and rusians understands that. People in the west/US are not being told the truth. Yes, the referendum was strictly speaking according to Ukrainian constitution illegal, but so was the coup and so was the slow "grab" which Kiev perpetrated on Crimea in 1992 after USSR dissolved. Ukraine got a lot of land which should have been returned to Russia at that time and the only reason it did not happen was because Russia was in much worse shape economically and politically than Ukraine at the time.

As I said, Khodorkovsky who is the most prominent opponent of Putin kinda agrees with Putin. Russia is not interested in invading anybody.

If Russian troops enter any eastern European nation without permission within the next 4 years, will you and all the Putin apologists publicly apologize on this forum for being quite wrong on the matter?

 

[Jayjay]

If that justifies Russian annexation of Crimea, when is Putin going to give Königsberg back to Germany?

I did not say it justifies it.

Fact is that land changes ownership sometimes.

And it did once again.

Russia should have just accepted that Crimea is now part of Ukraine, just like Kaliningrad, Karelia, Penchengsky and other places Russia has annexed over the years are now Russian.

Ukraine should just accept that Crimea is part of Russia again. The fact is, Crimea was stolen from Russia, especialy Sevastopol who was not even part of Ukraine legally.

The land ownership may have changed de facto, but not de jure until either international community or Ukraine accepts the new arrangement. That is what distinguishes it from WW2 era Russian conquests, and indeed the status of Crimea and Sevastopol after the break-up of the Soviet Union.

Many people consider the places I mentioned just as "stolen". Russia is one of the last countries in the world that can whine about others stealing any territory from it.

 

[Jayjay]

As I said, Khodorkovsky who is the most prominent opponent of Putin kinda agrees with Putin. Russia is not interested in invading anybody.

Putin said the same thing about Crimea, just before it annexed it. Actions speak louder than words and there are a number of places that Russia could potentially invade in the near future under some pretext or another.

 

[Jayjay]

According to Khorkovsky there are no such plans. Truth is, people who know the history including the ones who oppose Putin understand that there was simply no way to avoid what happened. Once coup in Kiev happened Crimea was gone.
Most of the normal ukrainians and rusians understands that. People in the west/US are not being told the truth. Yes, the referendum was strictly speaking according to Ukrainian constitution illegal, but so was the coup and so was the slow "grab" which Kiev perpetrated on Crimea in 1992 after USSR dissolved. Ukraine got a lot of land which should have been returned to Russia at that time and the only reason it did not happen was because Russia was in much worse shape economically and politically than Ukraine at the time.

As I said, Khodorkovsky who is the most prominent opponent of Putin kinda agrees with Putin. Russia is not interested in invading anybody.

If Russian troops enter any eastern European nation without permission within the next 4 years, will you and all the Putin apologists publicly apologize on this forum for being quite wrong on the matter?

Great idea. Barbos, Will Wiley, any other Russian shill ready to bet on it? You won't even have to put in any money on the table, a simple public apology when the time comes will do. But please, let's not restrict ourselves to Eastern Europe. There are a couple of Island off the coast of Sweden that Russia might invade as well...

 

[barbos]

You mean EU/NATO? yeah, they did expand breaking all the treaties.

There was no treaty that said certain countries were not allowed to join NATO.

Well, there should have been, and at the time there were such ideas.

If I am mistaken, please cite it.

Ukraine wasn't part of NATO and they lost territory because of it.

No, they lost territories becasue they tried to join NATO,

The kind of shit Russia pulled can lead to major wars with lots of deaths.

Nope, there was no deaths in Crimea. So Russia actually saved lives.

The only reason they got away with it is because Ukraine's military is too weak to take on Russia. Might makes right, in other words.
- - - Updated - - -

I did not say it justifies it.

Fact is that land changes ownership sometimes.

And it did once again.

Russia should have just accepted that Crimea is now part of Ukraine, just like Kaliningrad, Karelia, Penchengsky and other places Russia has annexed over the years are now Russian.

Russia did exactly that, under unwritten conditions that Ukraine will stay a friend and Russia will keep its base there forever, By the way Base was literally stollen in 1991, because it was not even Ukraine. Once government which came to power as a result of US/EU orchestrated coup decided to violate unwritten agreement and to join NATO, Crimea was gone, No amount of legalese can help you here.

Ukraine should just accept that Crimea is part of Russia again. The fact is, Crimea was stolen from Russia, especialy Sevastopol who was not even part of Ukraine legally.

Yea, Crimea is gone. I think that the real question is does Putin plan additional land grabs?

Our Eastern European allies, those that have the biggest stake in the matter, are very worried that the risk is quite high. If not land grabs, at least sending in troops to overthrow governments not sufficiently kowtowing to Russia.

- - - Updated - - -

According to Khorkovsky there are no such plans. Truth is, people who know the history including the ones who oppose Putin understand that there was simply no way to avoid what happened. Once coup in Kiev happened Crimea was gone.
Most of the normal ukrainians and rusians understands that. People in the west/US are not being told the truth. Yes, the referendum was strictly speaking according to Ukrainian constitution illegal, but so was the coup and so was the slow "grab" which Kiev perpetrated on Crimea in 1992 after USSR dissolved. Ukraine got a lot of land which should have been returned to Russia at that time and the only reason it did not happen was because Russia was in much worse shape economically and politically than Ukraine at the time.

As I said, Khodorkovsky who is the most prominent opponent of Putin kinda agrees with Putin. Russia is not interested in invading anybody.

If Russian troops enter any eastern European nation without permission within the next 4 years, will you and all the Putin apologists publicly apologize on this forum for being quite wrong on the matter?

You have to talk Khodorkovsky and ask him. I doubt he calls himself Putin apologist

 

[barbos]

As I said, Khodorkovsky who is the most prominent opponent of Putin kinda agrees with Putin. Russia is not interested in invading anybody.

Putin said the same thing about Crimea, just before it annexed it. Actions speak louder than words and there are a number of places that Russia could potentially invade in the near future under some pretext or another.

I don't remember him saying that and why would anybody ask him that anyway?
I remember him denying that green men were russians, but strictly speaking he merely avoided answering the question by saying "It could be anyone"
But yeah, he lied, but he was in the middle of operation.

 

[barbos]

I did not say it justifies it.

Fact is that land changes ownership sometimes.

And it did once again.

Russia should have just accepted that Crimea is now part of Ukraine, just like Kaliningrad, Karelia, Penchengsky and other places Russia has annexed over the years are now Russian.

Ukraine should just accept that Crimea is part of Russia again. The fact is, Crimea was stolen from Russia, especialy Sevastopol who was not even part of Ukraine legally.

The land ownership may have changed de facto, but not de jure until either international community or Ukraine accepts the new arrangement. That is what distinguishes it from WW2 era Russian conquests, and indeed the status of Crimea and Sevastopol after the break-up of the Soviet Union.

Status of Sevastopol have been flat out undetermined this whole time because During USSR it stayed in Russia despite the rest of Ukraine being formally redistricted by Ukrainian named Khrushhev and it was not even put for vote at any time, Individual named Khrushhev woke up one day and decided that it would be better if Crimea was part of Ukraine and so it happened. Same story with Abkhazia, georgian named Joseph Stalin woke up one day and decided that Georgia should have Abkhazia and so it happened.

Many people consider the places I mentioned just as "stolen". Russia is one of the last countries in the world that can whine about others stealing any territory from it.

Germany was a loser and USSR was a winner in that war, to the victor go the spoils

 

[Jayjay]

Putin said the same thing about Crimea, just before it annexed it. Actions speak louder than words and there are a number of places that Russia could potentially invade in the near future under some pretext or another.

I don't remember him saying that and why would anybody ask him that anyway?
I remember him denying that green men were russians, but strictly speaking he merely avoided answering the question by saying "It could be anyone"

Press Conference, March 4th 2014 (transcript translation by Washington Post):

QUESTION: How do you see the future of Crimea? Do you consider the possibility of it joining Russia?

VLADIMIR PUTIN: No, we do not. Generally, I believe that only residents of a given country who have the freedom of will and are in complete safety can and should determine their future. If this right was granted to the Albanians in Kosovo, if this was made possible in many different parts of the world, then nobody has ruled out the right of nations to self-determination, which, as far as I know, is fixed by several UN documents. However, we will in no way provoke any such decision and will not breed such sentiments.

We now know though that the plan to annex Crimea was decided already in February.

But yeah, he lied, but he was in the middle of operation.

When is Russia not in the middle of some operation or another?

 

[Jayjay]

I did not say it justifies it.

Fact is that land changes ownership sometimes.

And it did once again.

Russia should have just accepted that Crimea is now part of Ukraine, just like Kaliningrad, Karelia, Penchengsky and other places Russia has annexed over the years are now Russian.

Ukraine should just accept that Crimea is part of Russia again. The fact is, Crimea was stolen from Russia, especialy Sevastopol who was not even part of Ukraine legally.

The land ownership may have changed de facto, but not de jure until either international community or Ukraine accepts the new arrangement. That is what distinguishes it from WW2 era Russian conquests, and indeed the status of Crimea and Sevastopol after the break-up of the Soviet Union.

Status of Sevastopol have been flat out undetermined this whole time because During USSR it stayed in Russia despite the rest of Ukraine being formally redistricted by Ukrainian named Khrushhev and it was not even put for vote at any time, Individual named Khrushhev woke up one day and decided that it would be better if Crimea was part of Ukraine and so it happened. Same story with Abkhazia, georgian named Joseph Stalin woke up one day and decided that Georgia should have Abkhazia and so it happened.

Many people consider the places I mentioned just as "stolen". Russia is one of the last countries in the world that can whine about others stealing any territory from it.

Germany was a loser and USSR was a winner in that war, to the victor go the spoils

And Ukraine was the winner in the aftermath of the breakup of USSR.

 

[barbos]

Germany was a loser and USSR was a winner in that war, to the victor go the spoils

And Ukraine was the winner in the aftermath of the breakup of USSR.

If you say so, I guess. But now they are losers. What's your point here?

 

[barbos]

I don't remember him saying that and why would anybody ask him that anyway?
I remember him denying that green men were russians, but strictly speaking he merely avoided answering the question by saying "It could be anyone"

Press Conference, March 4th 2014 (transcript translation by Washington Post):

QUESTION: How do you see the future of Crimea? Do you consider the possibility of it joining Russia?

VLADIMIR PUTIN: No, we do not. Generally, I believe that only residents of a given country who have the freedom of will and are in complete safety can and should determine their future. If this right was granted to the Albanians in Kosovo, if this was made possible in many different parts of the world, then nobody has ruled out the right of nations to self-determination, which, as far as I know, is fixed by several UN documents. However, we will in no way provoke any such decision and will not breed such sentiments.

We now know though that the plan to annex Crimea was decided already in February.

But yeah, he lied, but he was in the middle of operation.

When is Russia not in the middle of some operation or another?

I am not outraged. He did say it's up to cimeans, and whether you admit it or not, they voted to get the hell out of Ukraine.

 

[whichphilosophy]

snip

Didn't really think to put it in the context of American foreign policy, I just found the analysis of Russia's long-term strategy interesting.

Interesting is one thing'; correct is another.

 

[Jayjay]

And Ukraine was the winner in the aftermath of the breakup of USSR.

If you say so, I guess. But now they are losers. What's your point here?

That "to the victor goes the spoils" is a silly justification.

 

[barbos]

If you say so, I guess. But now they are losers. What's your point here?

That "to the victor goes the spoils" is a silly justification.

Well, USSR was not the only one getting spoils, US got them too.
Anyway, Ukrainan government did everything humanly possible to lose Crimea.

 

[barbos]

He/She started with

Really?
And then continued with

The worrying thing is that it is people like Molly who seem to steer US policy, and the policy of other governments.

Molly K. McKew (@MollyMcKew) advises governments and political parties on foreign policy and strategic communications. She was an adviser to Georgian President Saakashvili’s government from 2009-2013, and to former Moldovan Prime Minister Filat in 2014-2015.

Neocons are terrible judges of character.

Former Moldovan Prime Minister Vlad Filat has been sentenced to nine years in jail on corruption charges.

Georgian prosecutors charge ex-president Saakashvili