bilby
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On November 25, Queensland goes to the polls in an election that has a number of novel features:
ABC Australia's psephologist, Antony Green, calculated that the seat distribution based on the 2015 voting pattern, after the redistribution and addition of four new seats, would be 47 Labor, 44 LNP, 1 Katter's Australia Party (KAP) and 1 independent; However the One Nation Party (ONP, now rebranded as PHON) polled just 0.9% in 2015, while the latest opinion polling has them easily the third largest party, at 16-18%, with Labor on 35%, LNP 32% and the Greens 9% of the primary vote. The Two-Party preferred polling has Labor 52% to LNP 48%
Voting is mandatory, but the changes in the rules may well lead to a large 'informal' vote - particularly as both major parties have previously encouraged voters to 'Just vote 1' - during the period before the merger of the Liberal and National parties, this was strongly promoted by Labor, in the hope of splitting the centre right-wing vote; and with the rising popularity of the Greens was effectively employed by the LNP in more recent years to split the centre left-wing vote.
My gut feeling is that many PHON votes will be informal votes of this kind, as PHON voters tend to be both disinclined to show the slightest support for either major party, and disinclined to learn anything new unless it is pounded into their heads with a housebrick. To whatever extent that occurs, it may prove to be a valuable 'stupidity filter'.
Both major parties support the controversial Adani mine project, and both are aware that it is hugely unpopular with the voters, so they are engaged in a 'keystone cops' routine of falling over themselves to claim that the other party want the mine more than they do. The voters, of course, won't get a say, as there are no parties with a ghost of a chance of gaining power who oppose the mine; It is a very small possibility that the Greens might end up with the balance of power, and be able to block Adani as the price of coalition or supply, but that seems unlikely. PHON appear to be huge supporters of the mine, while simultaneously having a typically nationalist (and typically conspiracy theorist) opposition to the idea that an Indian company might bring in Indian employees to run the thing - PHON policies make people with Multiple Personality Disorder appear totally with-it, collected and sane.
The Queensland Government is a unicameral institution, so they can get away with all kinds of insanity, unchecked and un-fettered by an interfering upper house or senate. If, as seems most likely, PHON end up with the balance of power, we could be in for very interesting times. That having been said, the electorate here is incredibly volatile, and has returned some really HUGE swings in past elections: The LNP won the 2012 election with a crushing 78-7 seat victory, while Labor managed to reduce the Liberal Party to just 3 seats in 2001, winning 66 of 89 seats.
Indeed, Stacia became premier as a result of the 2012 defeat for Labor - they only had 7 caucus members, one of whom was the defeated leader Anna Bligh, who immediately resigned, and Stacia was the 'least worst' of the remaining 6 in the eyes of the State Labor Party. She would almost certainly not have been considered for party leader under other circumstances, for factional reasons, but IMO has turned out to be one of the best Queensland labor leaders we have had - perhaps in part because she does not fit the usual mould.
LNP leader, Tim Nicholls is a bit of an unknown quantity, as his only taste of power was as Treasurer under Campbell Newman, between 2012 and 2015; He successfully ousted Lawrence Springborg from the LNP leadership position after Springborg's defeat in the 2015 election, at which Labor bounced back from holding just 7 seats to take power with Peter Wellington's support.
It's going to be a (mercifully) short campaign, but there's a lot of uncertainty, and really almost anything could happen.
I fully expect that discussion on this critical political event will be intense, so if the mods want to create a special sub-forum for this election, that would be great
- It is the last election whose date will be determined by the sitting Premier, as future elections will be held on the last Saturday in October every four years, starting from 31 October 2020
- The parliament has increased in size to 93 seats (from 89), prompting significant redistributions in many seats
- The voting system has changed from 'optional preferential' to 'compulsory preferential' Instant Runoff voting, so ballots without every box numbered will be discarded (where previously they were counted unless exhausted)
- The outgoing government (under Labor Premier Stacia Palaszczuk) has 44 seats, with the Liberal National Party (LNP) on 42, and governed with the support of Independent MLA Peter Wellington; It seems likely that once again no party will gain an outright majority (now requiring 47 seats), and it is very possible that the neo-fascist personality cultist party, Pauline Hanson's One
BraincellNation (PHON) will end up holding the balance of power. - PHON candidate Malcolm Roberts is running, having just recently been disqualified as a federal senator; Pauline Hanson herself remains a federal senator, and is not running - but according to the polls, many of her supporters think she is (you don't need a lot of smarts to support PHON).
- Election Day is in the middle of the five-day Ashes Test match between England and Australia at the Gabba, so perhaps Stacia thinks that cricket fans tend towards supporting the LNP and will miss the vote, to watch the match.
ABC Australia's psephologist, Antony Green, calculated that the seat distribution based on the 2015 voting pattern, after the redistribution and addition of four new seats, would be 47 Labor, 44 LNP, 1 Katter's Australia Party (KAP) and 1 independent; However the One Nation Party (ONP, now rebranded as PHON) polled just 0.9% in 2015, while the latest opinion polling has them easily the third largest party, at 16-18%, with Labor on 35%, LNP 32% and the Greens 9% of the primary vote. The Two-Party preferred polling has Labor 52% to LNP 48%
Voting is mandatory, but the changes in the rules may well lead to a large 'informal' vote - particularly as both major parties have previously encouraged voters to 'Just vote 1' - during the period before the merger of the Liberal and National parties, this was strongly promoted by Labor, in the hope of splitting the centre right-wing vote; and with the rising popularity of the Greens was effectively employed by the LNP in more recent years to split the centre left-wing vote.
My gut feeling is that many PHON votes will be informal votes of this kind, as PHON voters tend to be both disinclined to show the slightest support for either major party, and disinclined to learn anything new unless it is pounded into their heads with a housebrick. To whatever extent that occurs, it may prove to be a valuable 'stupidity filter'.
Both major parties support the controversial Adani mine project, and both are aware that it is hugely unpopular with the voters, so they are engaged in a 'keystone cops' routine of falling over themselves to claim that the other party want the mine more than they do. The voters, of course, won't get a say, as there are no parties with a ghost of a chance of gaining power who oppose the mine; It is a very small possibility that the Greens might end up with the balance of power, and be able to block Adani as the price of coalition or supply, but that seems unlikely. PHON appear to be huge supporters of the mine, while simultaneously having a typically nationalist (and typically conspiracy theorist) opposition to the idea that an Indian company might bring in Indian employees to run the thing - PHON policies make people with Multiple Personality Disorder appear totally with-it, collected and sane.
The Queensland Government is a unicameral institution, so they can get away with all kinds of insanity, unchecked and un-fettered by an interfering upper house or senate. If, as seems most likely, PHON end up with the balance of power, we could be in for very interesting times. That having been said, the electorate here is incredibly volatile, and has returned some really HUGE swings in past elections: The LNP won the 2012 election with a crushing 78-7 seat victory, while Labor managed to reduce the Liberal Party to just 3 seats in 2001, winning 66 of 89 seats.
Indeed, Stacia became premier as a result of the 2012 defeat for Labor - they only had 7 caucus members, one of whom was the defeated leader Anna Bligh, who immediately resigned, and Stacia was the 'least worst' of the remaining 6 in the eyes of the State Labor Party. She would almost certainly not have been considered for party leader under other circumstances, for factional reasons, but IMO has turned out to be one of the best Queensland labor leaders we have had - perhaps in part because she does not fit the usual mould.
LNP leader, Tim Nicholls is a bit of an unknown quantity, as his only taste of power was as Treasurer under Campbell Newman, between 2012 and 2015; He successfully ousted Lawrence Springborg from the LNP leadership position after Springborg's defeat in the 2015 election, at which Labor bounced back from holding just 7 seats to take power with Peter Wellington's support.
It's going to be a (mercifully) short campaign, but there's a lot of uncertainty, and really almost anything could happen.
I fully expect that discussion on this critical political event will be intense, so if the mods want to create a special sub-forum for this election, that would be great
