Should the west defend democracy in Taiwan?

[Harry Bosch]

President Jinping ordered the Chinese military to prepare for battle last friday as Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-Wen called for international support to defend the island’s democracy.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...e-ready-for-battle/ar-BBRQL4n?ocid=spartanntp

China is such a bully.

 

[Jolly_Penguin]

Oh shit. I am flying through Teipei in 3 weeks. Please don't let this be an actual armed conflict that goes hot.

But more on topic, it would be consistent with past claimed reasoning for interfering in the middle east to interfere here, but the west won't, because China is too powerful.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Oh shit. I am flying through Teipei in 3 weeks. Please don't let this be an actual armed conflict that goes hot.

But more on topic, it would be consistent with past claimed reasoning for interfering in the middle east to interfere here, but the west won't, because China is too powerful.

China is quite the saber-rattler. They would be pretty hard-pressed to actually invade, though, due to the lack of sealift and a lack of ability to protect their shipping from submarines.

 

[J842P]

President Jinping ordered the Chinese military to prepare for battle last friday as Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-Wen called for international support to defend the island’s democracy.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...e-ready-for-battle/ar-BBRQL4n?ocid=spartanntp

China is such a bully.

Nah. Taiwan definitely belongs in the Chinese sphere of influence.

Sucks, but them's the breaks. Sure, the west can try to diplomatically solve this. But war with China over Taiwan? No way.

 

[skepticalbip]

It creates a real problem for U.S. agreements world wide. Many nations like Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, etc. were promised U.S. protection and one of the conditions was that they not develop nuclear weapons for their national defense because we would handle it. If we don't help Taiwan in case of a Chinese attack then we could see some massive nuclear proliferation around the world in nations that would lose confidence in the U.S. living up to their defense agreements.

 

[zorq]

Nah. Taiwan definitely belongs in the Chinese sphere of influence.

Sucks, but them's the breaks. Sure, the west can try to diplomatically solve this. But war with China over Taiwan? No way.

Yes. Taiwan definitely does belong in the Chinese sphere of influence. The question at hand and the question in the OP is: Which China?

 

[J842P]

Nah. Taiwan definitely belongs in the Chinese sphere of influence.

Sucks, but them's the breaks. Sure, the west can try to diplomatically solve this. But war with China over Taiwan? No way.

Yes. Taiwan definitely does belong in the Chinese sphere of influence. The question at hand and the question in the OP is: Which China?

lol The only China that matters. The PRC of course. Taiwan existed at the mercy of American and foreign involvement. That, unfortunately with China approaching super-power status, means it has no legitimacy. Unless you seriously are suggesting war over this.

 

[zorq]

Nah. Taiwan definitely belongs in the Chinese sphere of influence.

Sucks, but them's the breaks. Sure, the west can try to diplomatically solve this. But war with China over Taiwan? No way.

Yes. Taiwan definitely does belong in the Chinese sphere of influence. The question at hand and the question in the OP is: Which China?

lol The only China that matters. The PRC of course. Taiwan existed at the mercy of American and foreign involvement. That, unfortunately with China approaching super-power status, means it has no legitimacy. Unless you seriously are suggesting war over this.

I'm sure the 23 million people living in Taiwan are happy to hear you say they don't matter.
What's the point in having treaties and allies if we don't honor them? If we forfeit on this treaty how many other "allies" will get the message and abandon us?

Maybe if PRC decides that Florida is their territory you'll be happy to throw those 21 million people under the bus too. Afterall... Appeasement always works.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Oh shit. I am flying through Teipei in 3 weeks. Please don't let this be an actual armed conflict that goes hot.

But more on topic, it would be consistent with past claimed reasoning for interfering in the middle east to interfere here, but the west won't, because China is too powerful.

Well, the vast majority of Taiwan want's assistance. Even the pro-China Taiwan party does not want to be conquered by China. Who would want to be ruled by a government that "disappears" people all the time. The ME interventions are mostly getting involved in the civil war between the Shia and Sunnis. There is no civil war in Taiwan.

 

[GenesisNemesis]

I'm all for the U.S. being an advocate for democracy. The problem comes in when we think we have to support the military in absolutely everything it does, which contradicts various democratic goals.

 

[funinspace]

First I am not making any argument about what we (the US) should due in the case of the PRC invades Taiwan.

lol The only China that matters. The PRC of course. Taiwan existed at the mercy of American and foreign involvement. That, unfortunately with China approaching super-power status, means it has no legitimacy. Unless you seriously are suggesting war over this.

I'm sure the 23 million people living in Taiwan are happy to hear you say they don't matter.
What's the point in having treaties and allies if we don't honor them? If we forfeit on this treaty how many other "allies" will get the message and abandon us?

What treaty with Taiwan? The US maintains a delicate balance between being friendly with Taiwan w/o making much of anything official. The US sells them weapons but that is about all.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan–United_States_relations

The U.S. Department of State, in its U.S. Relations With Taiwan fact sheet, states "The United States and Taiwan enjoy a robust unofficial relationship. The 1979 U.S.-P.R.C. Joint Communique switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing. In the Joint Communique, the United States recognized the Government of the People's Republic of China as the sole legal government of China, acknowledging the Chinese position that there is but one China and Taiwan is part of China.[36]

The United States position on Taiwan is reflected in "the six assurances to Taiwan", the Three Communiqués, and the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA).[37] The Six Assurances include: 1. The United States has not agreed to set a date for ending arms sales to Taiwan; 2. The United States has not agreed to hold prior consultations with the Chinese on arms sales to Taiwan; 3. The United States would not play any mediation role between Taiwan and Beijing; 4. The United States has not agreed to revise the Taiwan Relations Act; 5. The United States has not altered its position regarding sovereignty over Taiwan; and 6. The United States would not exert pressure on Taiwan to enter into negotiations with the Chinese.

In 2018 the US got around to sort of, kind of, but not really opening an embassy in Taiwan...
https://www.cnn.com/2018/06/12/asia/us-taiwan-de-facto-embassy-china-intl/index.html

China has lodged a protest with the US following the official opening of Washington's new de facto embassy in Taiwan, a self-ruled island off China's southeastern coast that Beijing considers a renegade province.

"The United States sending officials to Taiwan under any excuses is in serious violation of the 'one China' principle," Geng Shuang, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman, said Tuesday. "It interferes with China's internal affairs and negatively impacts China-US relations."
"We urge the US to abide by its pledge to China and correct its mistake to avoid harming China-US relations and peace in the Taiwan Strait."
The American Institute in Taiwan, as the de facto US embassy in Taipei is called, was officially declared open Tuesday morning, in a ceremony attended by senior US diplomats and Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen.

 

[funinspace]

Oh shit. I am flying through Teipei in 3 weeks. Please don't let this be an actual armed conflict that goes hot.

But more on topic, it would be consistent with past claimed reasoning for interfering in the middle east to interfere here, but the west won't, because China is too powerful.

China is quite the saber-rattler.

True, which is why the rest of your comments really aren't that important. The odds are very low that the PRC would invade anytime soon.

They would be pretty hard-pressed to actually invade, though, due to the lack of sealift...

The straight between them is only about 100 miles. Most all transport helicopters can make that jump. They actually have quite a few amphibious landing ships. They will have a second operational aircraft carrier this fall as well. After a period of bombardment (missiles/planes) of Taiwan's military facilities, I don' think it would take long for the PRC to take control of 1 or 2 ports to allow even more ships to make landings. And a 100-200 transport helicopters making target drops along with paratroopers,
(5) 071's 500-800 troops
(15) 072A's 250 troops
(10) 072III's 250 troops
(4) 072II's 250 troops
and others...

... and a lack of ability to protect their shipping from submarines.

Like we did to Russia over the eastern Ukraine?

 

[Opoponax]

True, which is why the rest of your comments really aren't that important. The odds are very low that the PRC would invade anytime soon.

They would be pretty hard-pressed to actually invade, though, due to the lack of sealift...

The straight between them is only about 100 miles. Most all transport helicopters can make that jump. They actually have quite a few amphibious landing ships. They will have a second operational aircraft carrier this fall as well. After a period of bombardment (missiles/planes) of Taiwan's military facilities, I don' think it would take long for the PRC to take control of 1 or 2 ports to allow even more ships to make landings. And a 100-200 transport helicopters making target drops along with paratroopers,
(5) 071's 500-800 troops
(15) 072A's 250 troops
(10) 072III's 250 troops
(4) 072II's 250 troops
and others...

... and a lack of ability to protect their shipping from submarines.

Like we did to Russia over the eastern Ukraine?

[YOUTUBE]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z67BZ1T0ehU[/YOUTUBE]

This guy has to make certain rules in order to keep the scenario under control, like no nukes, or no outside help, but it helps to get an idea of what each side would be facing.

 

[J842P]

Oh shit. I am flying through Teipei in 3 weeks. Please don't let this be an actual armed conflict that goes hot.

But more on topic, it would be consistent with past claimed reasoning for interfering in the middle east to interfere here, but the west won't, because China is too powerful.

Well, the vast majority of Taiwan want's assistance. Even the pro-China Taiwan party does not want to be conquered by China. Who would want to be ruled by a government that "disappears" people all the time. The ME interventions are mostly getting involved in the civil war between the Shia and Sunnis. There is no civil war in Taiwan.

Well, there *is* the Civil War with China, that they obviously lost.

Unless you believe either side has accepted the status quo?

 

[J842P]

lol The only China that matters. The PRC of course. Taiwan existed at the mercy of American and foreign involvement. That, unfortunately with China approaching super-power status, means it has no legitimacy. Unless you seriously are suggesting war over this.

I'm sure the 23 million people living in Taiwan are happy to hear you say they don't matter.
What's the point in having treaties and allies if we don't honor them? If we forfeit on this treaty how many other "allies" will get the message and abandon us?

Maybe if PRC decides that Florida is their territory you'll be happy to throw those 21 million people under the bus too. Afterall... Appeasement always works.

No, obviously, the US should defend it's territory. Duh.

And yes, unfortunately for the Taiwanese, they do not matter geopolitically anymore. Is this not obvious? Or are you arguing that it should matter?

I'll tell you what, you are welcome to join the Taiwanese army if you feel so strongly about it.

And the US should sever it's treaty with Taiwan, or at least, try to diplomatically negotiate with China regarding the issue.

Edit* And yeah, looking it up, is there even a formal treaty? Can't find it.

But war? Haha. Not worth it. Even if we lose allies.

 

[skepticalbip]

lol The only China that matters. The PRC of course. Taiwan existed at the mercy of American and foreign involvement. That, unfortunately with China approaching super-power status, means it has no legitimacy. Unless you seriously are suggesting war over this.

I'm sure the 23 million people living in Taiwan are happy to hear you say they don't matter.
What's the point in having treaties and allies if we don't honor them? If we forfeit on this treaty how many other "allies" will get the message and abandon us?

Maybe if PRC decides that Florida is their territory you'll be happy to throw those 21 million people under the bus too. Afterall... Appeasement always works.

Or maybe the Philippines... China has already built up islands and established military bases in areas around Philippine territorial waters so the territorial waters are now being disputed. After all, the world did close its eyes to China annexing Tibet several decades ago.

Surely China should be allowed lebensraum.

 

[J842P]

lol The only China that matters. The PRC of course. Taiwan existed at the mercy of American and foreign involvement. That, unfortunately with China approaching super-power status, means it has no legitimacy. Unless you seriously are suggesting war over this.

I'm sure the 23 million people living in Taiwan are happy to hear you say they don't matter.
What's the point in having treaties and allies if we don't honor them? If we forfeit on this treaty how many other "allies" will get the message and abandon us?

Maybe if PRC decides that Florida is their territory you'll be happy to throw those 21 million people under the bus too. Afterall... Appeasement always works.

Or maybe the Philippines... China has already built up islands and established military bases in areas around Philippine territorial waters so the territorial waters are now being disputed. After all, the world did close its eyes to China annexing Tibet several decades ago.

Surely China should be allowed lebensraum.

Ah yes. Of course, China is exactly like Nazi Germany, with the exact same geo-political and historical context. Of course, the situations should be treated exactly the same. How stupid of me.

 

[skepticalbip]

Or maybe the Philippines... China has already built up islands and established military bases in areas around Philippine territorial waters so the territorial waters are now being disputed. After all, the world did close its eyes to China annexing Tibet several decades ago.

Surely China should be allowed lebensraum.

Ah yes. Of course, China is exactly like Nazi Germany, with the exact same geo-political and historical context. Of course, the situations should be treated exactly the same. How stupid of me.

Who the fuck said anything like "exactly like Nazi Germany" (although Germany, at the time of annexing Austria, was much less oppressive of its citizens than China is today)? Although the world has recognized Chamberland apologizing for a county's expansionist policies is a really bad idea. It was the reason for forming NATO - to deter Soviet expansionism.

Do you have no problem with the annexing of Tibet and the ensuing slaughter? Do you have no concern with expansion into Philippine territory?

 

[Loren Pechtel]

President Jinping ordered the Chinese military to prepare for battle last friday as Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-Wen called for international support to defend the island’s democracy.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...e-ready-for-battle/ar-BBRQL4n?ocid=spartanntp

China is such a bully.

Nah. Taiwan definitely belongs in the Chinese sphere of influence.

Sucks, but them's the breaks. Sure, the west can try to diplomatically solve this. But war with China over Taiwan? No way.

And where does it end? When you take the appeasement route they'll just keep taking more territory.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

True, which is why the rest of your comments really aren't that important. The odds are very low that the PRC would invade anytime soon.

They would be pretty hard-pressed to actually invade, though, due to the lack of sealift...

The straight between them is only about 100 miles. Most all transport helicopters can make that jump. They actually have quite a few amphibious landing ships. They will have a second operational aircraft carrier this fall as well. After a period of bombardment (missiles/planes) of Taiwan's military facilities, I don' think it would take long for the PRC to take control of 1 or 2 ports to allow even more ships to make landings. And a 100-200 transport helicopters making target drops along with paratroopers,
(5) 071's 500-800 troops
(15) 072A's 250 troops
(10) 072III's 250 troops
(4) 072II's 250 troops
and others...

... and a lack of ability to protect their shipping from submarines.

Like we did to Russia over the eastern Ukraine?

Transport helicopters don't fare very well against MANPADS.

And they have a couple of their own subs. That's where we should be looking--sell them some more subs.