South Carolina Primary

[Derec]

So, it looks like it's going to be a good night for Biden. Recent polls have been breaking his way, usually with Biden in high 30s or low 40s, Bernie in low 20s and Steyer just below the 15% threshold.


I guess the Clyburn endorsement and shameless pandering, promissing to appoint the first black woman to US Senate Supreme Court are going to work their magic.


But we shall have results soon.

 

[Xoxarle1]

I’m wondering if it was Sanders who had been forced to admit a homespun tale of arrest in South Africa on the stump was complete fiction, while simultaneously bashing Trump for lying about the virus threat, instead of Biden, would CNN and MSNBC be giving him a free pass, or would they be fixated on it 24/7, like the Dean Yell?

I’m predicting a good night for Wolf Blizer. I picture him sobbing in relief and high-fiving his DNC pundit panel, as it becomes clear that Biden will limp on to Super Tuesday, before getting waxed in CA and TX.

 

[Xoxarle1]

CNN just called it for Biden, just as the polls closed. The relief is palpable.

 

[Derec]

I also wonder why no pundits call South Carolina "not representative of the country" like they were tirelessly repeating about Iowa and NH? After all, US is ~14% black but ~60% of Dem primary electorate in SC is black. That's a far more skewed demographics than either of the first two states.

Edited to add link to live results.

 

[Xoxarle1]

I also wonder why no pundits call South Carolina "not representative of the country" like they were tirelessly repeating about Iowa and NH? After all, US is ~14% black but ~60% of Dem primary electorate in SC is black. That's a far more skewed demographics than either of the first two states.

Edited to add link to live results.

Er, because Biden won?

 

[Xoxarle1]

CNN is excitedly deconstructing the first 1% of votes cast right now.

 

[Derec]

I was hoping Biden would stumble so that Bloomberg could take his mantle on Super Tuesday and beyond. Now they will probably end up taking each other's votes on Tuesday, and thus strengthen Bernie. I was hoping Bloomberg would be the anti-Bernie because I think he would be a better general election candidate and a better president than Biden, who is now de-facto anti-Bernie. But Bloomberg was damaged by Warren's attacks and Biden is buoyed by SC. So a Bernie nomination is now much more likely than if Biden had fallen in SC, unless Bloomberg does the selfless thing and drops out, which I do not see happening.
Warren and Klob definitely need to drop out though. At least Pete can say he won Iowa and did well in NH and NV. Not so these two. Just being women is not enough of a justification to carry on quixotic campaigns.

 

[Xoxarle1]

I got a letter from Mini Mike today in the mailbox. Addressed to me and my wife by name. That’s in addition to all the TV ads, and an earlier flier. I’m struggling to understand why he’s putting resources in Florida right now. Nobody else is, and by the time Florida votes he could be a distant third if he doesn’t do well on Tuesday.

 

[Elixir]

I got a letter from Mini Mike today in the mailbox. Addressed to me and my wife by name. That’s in addition to all the TV ads, and an earlier flier. I’m struggling to understand why he’s putting resources in Florida right now. Nobody else is, and by the time Florida votes he could be a distant third if he doesn’t do well on Tuesday.

I'll just copy this here, because I am getting mail, email, popups - it's fucking nuts.

View attachment 26368

 

[Xoxarle1]

Biden has a 30 point lead with 50% of the votes in. He’s doing a lot better than even recent polls predicted.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

I got a letter from Mini Mike today in the mailbox. Addressed to me and my wife by name. That’s in addition to all the TV ads, and an earlier flier. I’m struggling to understand why he’s putting resources in Florida right now. Nobody else is, and by the time Florida votes he could be a distant third if he doesn’t do well on Tuesday.

I'll just copy this here, because I am getting mail, email, popups - it's fucking nuts.

View attachment 26368

like this:
https://politics.theonion.com/i-like-this-candidate-now-and-will-vote-for-him-says-1841952651

 

[lpetrich]

Election 2020 - The New York Times - now at 80% of the votes. I've done proportional allocation of the state's 54 delegates with the numbers, and I find {{Joe Biden,198701,26,28,28},{Bernie Sanders,79083,11,11,11},{Tom Steyer,46418,6,6,6},{Pete Buttigieg,32222,4,4,4},{Elizabeth Warren,27866,4,4,4},{Amy Klobuchar,12501,2,1,1},{Tulsi Gabbard,5038,1,0,0},{Andrew Yang,816,0,0,0},{Michael Bennet,621,0,0,0},{Cory Booker,518,0,0,0},{John Delaney,291,0,0,0},{Deval Patrick,231,0,0,0}} -- (candidate, votes, delegate allocations} - where I use largest remainder, pure D'Hondt highest averages, D'Hondt topping off rounding down.

 

[Trausti]

Joementum!

 

[Xoxarle1]

This win is large enough to boost Biden everywhere, but his campaign was running on fumes, organizationally, and he has little or no ground game in the key Super Tuesday (ST) states. He's obviously going to get 2 days of enthusiastic coverage from the MSM, but he's behind Sanders by double digits in 4 of the 7 largest ST states (good for 80% of the total ST delegate count), and high single digits in a further 2. He's only ahead in NC right now, according to RCP averages.

 

[Trausti]

This win is large enough to boost Biden everywhere, but his campaign was running on fumes, organizationally, and he has little or no ground game in the key Super Tuesday (ST) states. He's obviously going to get 2 days of enthusiastic coverage from the MSM, but he's behind Sanders by double digits in 4 of the 7 largest ST states (good for 80% of the total ST delegate count), and high single digits in a further 2. He's only ahead in NC right now, according to RCP averages.

Yes, but he's greatly increased the chance that there'll be a brokered, divisive, and crazy-go-nuts convention. Fireworks!

 

[lpetrich]

Proportional allocation of delegates (raw Mathematica output): {{"Joe Biden", 255662, 26, 28, 28}, {"Bernie Sanders", 105070, 11, 11, 11}, {"Tom Steyer", 59815, 6, 6, 6}, {"Pete Buttigieg", 43484, 4, 4, 4}, {"Elizabeth Warren", 37285, 4, 4, 4}, {"Amy Klobuchar", 16610, 2, 1, 1}, {"Tulsi Gabbard", 6749, 1, 0, 0}, {"Andrew Yang", 1044, 0, 0, 0}, {"Michael Bennet", 748, 0, 0, 0}, {"Cory Booker", 643, 0, 0, 0}, {"John Delaney", 345, 0, 0, 0}, {"Deval Patrick", 273, 0, 0, 0}}

Total number of delegates: 54, proportional-allocation algorithms: highest remainder, D'Hondt highest averages, D'Hondt topping off round-down.

 

[lpetrich]

The New York Times and the Associated Press (from Google search) both have partial allocations at this time.

NYT: JB 29, BS 9, total 38
AP: JB 33, BS 11, total 44

Looks like the delegate allocation was thresholded. A 15% threshold is enough to exclude Tom Steyer, with his 11% of the votes. For 54 delegates, that means JB 38, BS 16.

 

[southernhybrid]

I was hoping Biden would stumble so that Bloomberg could take his mantle on Super Tuesday and beyond. Now they will probably end up taking each other's votes on Tuesday, and thus strengthen Bernie. I was hoping Bloomberg would be the anti-Bernie because I think he would be a better general election candidate and a better president than Biden, who is now de-facto anti-Bernie. But Bloomberg was damaged by Warren's attacks and Biden is buoyed by SC. So a Bernie nomination is now much more likely than if Biden had fallen in SC, unless Bloomberg does the selfless thing and drops out, which I do not see happening.
Warren and Klob definitely need to drop out though. At least Pete can say he won Iowa and did well in NH and NV. Not so these two. Just being women is not enough of a justification to carry on quixotic campaigns.

I tend to disagree. Bloomberg is very popular in the northeast, but not so much in the rest of the country. I think that Bloomberg comes across as too autocratic and arrogant, which I don't think would help him in the general. Plus, Bernie supports might vote for one of the other candidates in the general, but I think a lot of them will vote third party or not vote at all, if Bloomberg is the candidate. I agree that he should bow out. I agree that he mostly like won't. At least Styer dropped out last night, but he should have never gotten in.

I'm not fond of any of the candidates and haven't been since the beginning, but I do think that Biden, with the right VP candidate would do better in the general than the other candidates. People seem to like him, other than the youngest ones. After being brutally attacked by both Trump and the Sanders base, it's amazing that he's still standing.

He already has good relationships with what were once our allies, before Trump screwed that up. He could choose a more progressive VP candidate to energize that base. Or, Sanders could choose a less progressive running mate if he wants to appeal to voters who are more moderate. Unless the Democrats find a way to unite behind one candidate, we may be looking at a second Trump term. Perhaps the way he is dealing with the potential pandemic and its impact on the economy might be his end. But, the lack of unity in the Democratic Party isn't going to help. When the country is experiencing difficult times, it's often hard to defeat an incumbent. So, here we are again, playing pundit.

 

[Terrell]

I got a letter from Mini Mike today in the mailbox. Addressed to me and my wife by name. That’s in addition to all the TV ads, and an earlier flier. I’m struggling to understand why he’s putting resources in Florida right now. Nobody else is, and by the time Florida votes he could be a distant third if he doesn’t do well on Tuesday.

I'll just copy this here, because I am getting mail, email, popups - it's fucking nuts.

View attachment 26368

Nice meme. You can early vote as of today in FL for the 2020 primary. At least in some counties.
https://www.clickorlando.com/news/l...voting-starts-in-your-central-florida-county/

 

[lpetrich]

South Carolina 2020 Primary: Live Results - The New York Times - seems to be complete. So I'll give the proportional results:

[table="class: grid"]
[tr][td]Candidate[/td][td]Votes[/td][td]LgRm[/td][td]HgAv[/td][td]HATp[/td][td]Dels[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Joe Biden[/td][td]256111[/td][td]26[/td][td]28[/td][td]28[/td][td]39[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Bernie Sanders[/td][td]105226[/td][td]11[/td][td]11[/td][td]11[/td][td]13[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Tom Steyer[/td][td]59917[/td][td]6[/td][td]6[/td][td]6[/td][td]2[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Pete Buttigieg[/td][td]43612[/td][td]4[/td][td]4[/td][td]4[/td][td]0[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Elizabeth Warren[/td][td]37353[/td][td]4[/td][td]4[/td][td]4[/td][td]0[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Amy Klobuchar[/td][td]16678[/td][td]2[/td][td]1[/td][td]1[/td][td]0[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Tulsi Gabbard[/td][td]6755[/td][td]1[/td][td]0[/td][td]0[/td][td]0[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Andrew Yang[/td][td]1046[/td][td]0[/td][td]0[/td][td]0[/td][td]0[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Michael Bennet[/td][td]753[/td][td]0[/td][td]0[/td][td]0[/td][td]0[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Cory Booker[/td][td]643[/td][td]0[/td][td]0[/td][td]0[/td][td]0[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]John Delaney[/td][td]350[/td][td]0[/td][td]0[/td][td]0[/td][td]0[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Deval Patrick[/td][td]275[/td][td]0[/td][td]0[/td][td]0[/td][td]0[/td][/tr]
[/table]

Google Search says that Tom Steyer's delegates now endorse Bernie Sanders.